Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[ponokanocker]

It just feels like picking a D at 4 will be like the Kings taking Hickey in his draft year. None of them seem good enough to go 4th overall.

As for Gagner, his defensive game never improved. He just never seem to figure out he had to take a man every time he came back into his own zone. That is completely on him.

 

[Halibut]

What about Murray? He was the guy we were taking if not Yak. They were also very high in Reinhart and Rielly. Its easy in hindsight to say we should have traded down and gotten a D but at the time the majority of the fanbase wanted the consensus #1 pick. It is also well known we used our second round picks based on need moreso than BPA. Musil was chosen because we needed D even though the scouts all wanted Jenner or Saad. I really don't think we went wrong taking Hall, RNH or Mcdavid 1st OA and going forward I prefer we take the best PROSPECT available and obtain the actual NHL players we need to fill out the roster.

It doesnt matter what the fanbase thinks, if this board proves anything it's that we're all idiots most of the time but we pay scouts to figure these things out and we need to have good scouts who can do that and then not overrule them because the owners kid thinks this guy is better. We need scouts who can make the right call and not get caught up on their darlings because they've seen them so long like Reinhart or because they are related to someone like Musil.

We have to think about the position we are putting the player we draft into and with the youth we have up front, Drai and McDavid, we shouldnt be planning on any forward we draft playing in the top six anytime soon. That means Tkachuk or Dubois should at best be getting spots on the wing third or fourth line preferably they stay in the minors for at least a year or two. They shouldnt be expected to help this team any sooner than a d-man we draft.

As for who me picked not taking Mcdavid wasnt an option and nobody in their right mind would have done it. The Hall and RNH picks are more questionable. RNH was hard to pass up given what we had, no center prospects at all but if we had taken Seguin the year earlier Landeskog might have been a consideration. At that point our team would have been better balanced at least.

 

[McWeber]

It doesnt matter what the fanbase thinks, if this board proves anything it's that we're all idiots most of the time but we pay scouts to figure these things out and we need to have good scouts who can do that and then not overrule them because the owners kid thinks this guy is better. We need scouts who can make the right call and not get caught up on their darlings because they've seen them so long like Reinhart or because they are related to someone like Musil.

We have to think about the position we are putting the player we draft into and with the youth we have up front, Drai and McDavid, we shouldnt be planning on any forward we draft playing in the top six anytime soon. That means Tkachuk or Dubois should at best be getting spots on the wing third or fourth line preferably they stay in the minors for at least a year or two. They shouldnt be expected to help this team any sooner than a d-man we draft.

As for who me picked not taking Mcdavid wasnt an option and nobody in their right mind would have done it. The Hall and RNH picks are more questionable. RNH was hard to pass up given what we had, no center prospects at all but if we had taken Seguin the year earlier Landeskog might have been a consideration. At that point our team would have been better balanced at least.

If we aren't to expect any prospect to play right away then why draft for current needs when those could change by the time that player is in the lineup, take BPA. With Seguin and Landeskog we would still have 1 C and 1LW, personally I still take Hall and RNH. Neither of them have had to be traded because of character flaws unlike Seguin.

 

[Birdperson]

Its a legitimate question.

One thing is for certain, it likely would've saved Katz a few million dollars.

He might have fell having not played with Kane and Kostistyn, but might have had more time to improve his speed and defensive game.

Would have ended up playing with Turris and McDonagh the next year.

 

[Oiler11]

Because that's worked so well so far?

Trade the pick (including trading down) or pick the best d-man.

If you take a dman with the 4th pick you are deflating the value of that asset immediately. A year from now, who gets you more in a trade? A dman still 3 more years away or a Dubois/Tchuck? Chia needs to maximize the value of this asset. Pick BPA, don't gamble with what is essentially a first-overall lite pick.

As for why the Oilers suck it isn't because of their first round drafting. It's because every other round has garnered us next to nothing. Which first round forward pick, either than Yak would you re-do? Even with hindsight Hall, RNH and CSP were good choices. And Murray over Yak wouldn't move the needle imo, Murray hasn't done much either.

 

[snipes]

If you take a dman with the 4th pick you are deflating the value of that asset immediately. A year from now, who gets you more in a trade? A dman still 3 more years away or a Dubois/Tchuck? Chia needs to maximize the value of this asset. Pick BPA, don't gamble with what is essentially a first-overall lite pick.

As for why the Oilers suck it isn't because of their first round drafting. It's because every other round has garnered us next to nothing. Which first round forward pick, either than Yak would you re-do? Even with hindsight Hall, RNH and CSP were good choices. And Murray over Yak wouldn't move the needle imo, Murray hasn't done much either.

Yup. Outside of Yak, all of those picks were the right choice at the time. I don't think anyone predicted it would turn out this way with him.

It's the supporting cast and atrocious D that has been the issue. It's hard to articulate how important having D men who can execute break outs in their own zone and move the puck up the ice to forwards in stride is. It literally makes a night and day difference.

Our goaltending is settled. Coaching and management are finally locked in place. Our identity and core forwards (Drai, McDavid, Hall, maybe RNH) are locked in place. We need to add a couple more big, skilled wingers to compete in the Pacific and puck moving D.

A lot of people forget that we were in a playoff position in mid-December before Klefbom went down. We're actually not that far away. We just need puck moving D, like desperately. I trust Chia gets this done.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

If you take a dman with the 4th pick you are deflating the value of that asset immediately. A year from now, who gets you more in a trade? A dman still 3 more years away or a Dubois/Tchuck? Chia needs to maximize the value of this asset. Pick BPA, don't gamble with what is essentially a first-overall lite pick.

As for why the Oilers suck it isn't because of their first round drafting. It's because every other round has garnered us next to nothing. Which first round forward pick, either than Yak would you re-do? Even with hindsight Hall, RNH and CSP were good choices. And Murray over Yak wouldn't move the needle imo, Murray hasn't done much either.

exactly...its about asset management

so what if we have too many skilled wingers? it just means we are dealing in a position of strength in order to address other needs

drafting for need is a recipe for disaster...look how long it took Brandon Davidson...a 6th rounder..to establish himself in the NHL...5 years
same with Klefbom
and Nurse is 2 years from being a difference maker in the NHL

 

[Mr Positive]

exactly...its about asset management

so what if we have too many skilled wingers? it just means we are dealing in a position of strength in order to address other needs

drafting for need is a recipe for disaster...look how long it took Brandon Davidson...a 6th rounder..to establish himself in the NHL...5 years
same with Klefbom
and Nurse is 2 years from being a difference maker in the NHL

but at the same time there are usually one or two huge slides either way every draft. Right now, most sources say that all three main D prospects are about equal, but what if Chiarelli's own scouting reveals something different? If we have a huge preference, then the only assurance of us getting him is using the 4th, and that would not be the biggest reach in draft history by a long shot

 

[Halibut]

It just feels like picking a D at 4 will be like the Kings taking Hickey in his draft year. None of them seem good enough to go 4th overall.

As for Gagner, his defensive game never improved. He just never seem to figure out he had to take a man every time he came back into his own zone. That is completely on him.

Hickey was the wrong pick at 4 but picking a d-man wasnt. They could have had Mcdonagh or Shattenkirk with that pick and those are difference makers on the blueline. You get those near the top of the first round of the draft. We can keep up this fantasy of getting Hamonic in a trade or Faulk as if they are actually available or maybe chase some pending free agents who we may lose or overpay a free agent who probably isnt as good as what we need.

If we actually want a #1 d-man we are most likely going to have to draft and develop him. They arent as available as everyone here seems to think. People are kidding themselves if they think we're going to trade for one or that our prospect wingers are suddenly going to have amazing trade value. They dont get traded.

 

[tinfish]

exactly...its about asset management

so what if we have too many skilled wingers? it just means we are dealing in a position of strength in order to address other needs

drafting for need is a recipe for disaster...look how long it took Brandon Davidson...a 6th rounder..to establish himself in the NHL...5 years
same with Klefbom
and Nurse is 2 years from being a difference maker in the NHL

Except this is pretty much where we're at now. No one wants to trade a stud d prospect for a winger. We've all heard it many times that the only way to get stud dmen is to draft them.

 

[Hemsky4PM]

Except this is pretty much where we're at now. No one wants to trade a stud d prospect for a winger. We've all heard it many times that the only way to get stud dmen is to draft them.

The fundamental problem for the Oilers has been scouting, talent evaluation, development, etc.

The only decent defensemen that the team has drafted in the past decade have all been dealt away. Petry was shipped off even though he was a legit top 4. He was discarded because he wasn't a top 2. Bad decision.

Between 2006 and 2012, the Oilers have drafted the following D:

Jeff Petry
Theo Peckham
Cody Wild
Alex Plante
Johan Motin
Troy Hesketh
Kyle Bigos
Martin Marincin
Jeremie Blain
Oscar Klefbom
David Musil
Dillon Simpson
Martin Gernat
Erik Gustafsson
Joey Laleggia
Brandon Davidson

NHLers: 5/16

Top 4s: 2 (Petry and Klefbom)

Let's compare this to a couple of other clubs. Anaheim:

Mark Mitera
John de Gray
Steven Kampfer
Jake Gardiner
Justin Schultz
Ryan Hegarty
Stefan Warg
Nick Pryor
Matt Clark
Sami Vatanen
Scott Valentine
Cam Fowler
Tim Heed
Kevin Lind
Andrew Wdlinski
Josh Manson
Hampus Lindholm
Andrew O'Brien
Brian Cooper

Success rate: 6/19
Top 4s: 4 (Gardiner, Vatanen, Lindholm and Fowler)

The Oilers just haven't been good at drafting and developing high-end defensemen. When they finally had one, Petry, they let him go for nothing.

The Oilers have simply been mismanaged for the past decade. Period.

I'd still lean forward in this draft, but would definitely like to see the Oilers take a D in the second round and later rounds too.

 

[Fourier]

The fundamental problem for the Oilers has been scouting, talent evaluation, development, etc.

The only decent defensemen that the team has drafted in the past decade have all been dealt away. Petry was shipped off even though he was a legit top 4. He was discarded because he wasn't a top 2. Bad decision.

Between 2006 and 2012, the Oilers have drafted the following D:

Jeff Petry
Theo Peckham
Cody Wild
Alex Plante
Johan Motin
Troy Hesketh
Kyle Bigos
Martin Marincin
Jeremie Blain
Oscar Klefbom
David Musil
Dillon Simpson
Martin Gernat
Erik Gustafsson
Joey Laleggia
Brandon Davidson

NHLers: 5/16

Top 4s: 2 (Petry and Klefbom)

Let's compare this to a couple of other clubs. Anaheim:

Mark Mitera
John de Gray
Steven Kampfer
Jake Gardiner
Justin Schultz
Ryan Hegarty
Stefan Warg
Nick Pryor
Matt Clark
Sami Vatanen
Scott Valentine
Cam Fowler
Tim Heed
Kevin Lind
Andrew Wdlinski
Josh Manson
Hampus Lindholm
Andrew O'Brien
Brian Cooper

Success rate: 6/19
Top 4s: 4 (Gardiner, Vatanen, Lindholm and Fowler)

The Oilers just haven't been good at drafting and developing high-end defensemen. When they finally had one, Petry, they let him go for nothing.

The Oilers have simply been mismanaged for the past decade. Period.

I'd still lean forward in this draft, but would definitely like to see the Oilers take a D in the second round and later rounds too.

I think you can make the case that the Oilers have not been great at drafting and developing defensemen if you go back to say 2005-2010. But your evidence here is not so compelling.

Three of the Anaheim defensemen you list were top 20 draft choices vs 1 for the Oilers. Schultz was not really developed by Anaheim. Nor was Gardiner. And your quoted over all success rates are virtually identical.

 

[Seachd]

If you take a dman with the 4th pick you are deflating the value of that asset immediately. A year from now, who gets you more in a trade? A dman still 3 more years away or a Dubois/Tchuck? Chia needs to maximize the value of this asset. Pick BPA, don't gamble with what is essentially a first-overall lite pick.

At the same time, I'd imagine the number of teams who pick a player in the first round based on future trade value hovers somewhere around the mark of 0%.

 

[Oilers4life1987]

1 4 Matthew Tkachuk LW London (OHL) 5' 11.75" 188
2 32 Lucas Johansen D Kelowna (WHL) 6' 2" 173
3 62 Simon Stransky LW Prince Albert (WHL) 6' 0.5" 174
3 83 Jordan Sambrook D Erie (OHL) 6' 2" 186
3 89 Max Lajoie D Swift Current (WHL) 6' 0" 173
5 122 Tobias Eder C EC Bad Tölz (Oberliga) 5' 11" 165
5 150 Evan Sarthou G Tri-City (WHL) 6' 1" 170
6 152 Patrick Bajkov RW Everett (WHL) 5' 11" 175

I would be pretty happy with this as a draft for the Oilers

 

[Halibut]

I think you can make the case that the Oilers have not been great at drafting and developing defensemen if you go back to say 2005-2010. But your evidence here is not so compelling.

Three of the Anaheim defensemen you list were top 20 draft choices vs 1 for the Oilers. Schultz was not really developed by Anaheim. Nor was Gardiner. And your quoted over all success rates are virtually identical.

Exactly. While there are great d-men that occasionally turn up later in the draft if you want the best shot at a good one you better be looking at the first round and the earlier the better. We only have one first round pick if we're using it yet again on a forward we better have another plan to get some quality d-men. If we're trading for them then you have to ask yourself why the other team is giving up on the guy we are getting and talk about giving up on trade value, Columbus had to give up a proven #1 center to get an unproven d-man with top pair potential.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Exactly. While there are great d-men that occasionally turn up later in the draft if you want the best shot at a good one you better be looking at the first round and the earlier the better. We only have one first round pick if we're using it yet again on a forward we better have another plan to get some quality d-men. If we're trading for them then you have to ask yourself why the other team is giving up on the guy we are getting and talk about giving up on trade value, Columbus had to give up a proven #1 center to get an unproven d-man with top pair potential.

Ya, realistically, if we are drafting based on trade value(and I'm not suggesting we should) we should be drafting nothing but RHD. Think of the ridiculous trade proposals that are out there for top 4 RHD men and there is no question they hold the highest value.

 

[Raab]

If you take a dman with the 4th pick you are deflating the value of that asset immediately. A year from now, who gets you more in a trade? A dman still 3 more years away or a Dubois/Tchuck? Chia needs to maximize the value of this asset. Pick BPA, don't gamble with what is essentially a first-overall lite pick.

As for why the Oilers suck it isn't because of their first round drafting. It's because every other round has garnered us next to nothing. Which first round forward pick, either than Yak would you re-do? Even with hindsight Hall, RNH and CSP were good choices. And Murray over Yak wouldn't move the needle imo, Murray hasn't done much either.

I disagree depending on the dman they might get you more.For example look at the 2015 draft who gets you more in a trade Dylan Strome or Noah Hanifin? Heck, I think Provorov might have more value then Strome right now.

 

[jimslob]

Hickey was the wrong pick at 4 but picking a d-man wasnt. They could have had Mcdonagh or Shattenkirk with that pick and those are difference makers on the blueline. You get those near the top of the first round of the draft. We can keep up this fantasy of getting Hamonic in a trade or Faulk as if they are actually available or maybe chase some pending free agents who we may lose or overpay a free agent who probably isnt as good as what we need.

If we actually want a #1 d-man we are most likely going to have to draft and develop him. They arent as available as everyone here seems to think. People are kidding themselves if they think we're going to trade for one or that our prospect wingers are suddenly going to have amazing trade value. They dont get traded.

Pronger?

 

[McDoused]

Pronger?

Was an outlier created by the salary cap?

 

[Halibut]

Was an outlier created by the salary cap?

...a decade ago. Sure every once in awhile it happens a top d-man becomes available or a first line center like Seguin for Dallas or the weirdness that lead to Richards and Carter going to LA. But we cant just wait for something great like that to happen. We need better defence, there's no question, and the best way to get them is near the top of the draft.

 

[lakai17]

It just feels like picking a D at 4 will be like the Kings taking Hickey in his draft year. None of them seem good enough to go 4th overall.

As for Gagner, his defensive game never improved. He just never seem to figure out he had to take a man every time he came back into his own zone. That is completely on him.

Usually I am on board to draft a forward but would gamble on one of the top 3 defenceman this time around. I am high on Dubois but my feeling is 2/3 will be a big impact on d in a few years.(if not all 3)

 

[belair]

Usually I am on board to draft a forward but would gamble on one of the top 3 defenceman this time around. I am high on Dubois but my feeling is 2/3 will be a big impact on d in a few years.(if not all 3)

I don't think selecting one of the three is the big issue though. Choosing one of the three over the consensus #4 pick is essentially diminishing the value of that asset. If we can trade down with a team who has Dubois/Tkatchuk as their #4, I think that's course of action. If they're in the #7-10 range, even better.

The worst possible thing that could happen is...

EDM Joulevi/Sergachev/Chychrun
VAN Dubois
CGY Tkachuk

Making the trade...

??? Dubois
VAN Tkachuk
CGY ???

EDM Juolevi/Sergachev/Chychrun + an asset

 

[lakai17]

I am sold on Juolevi at #4.

 

[McBaevid]

Dubois is the asset with the most value, take him, let him develop, trade him for a better established Dman or keep him on the team.

 

[Stud Muffin]

1 4 Matthew Tkachuk LW London (OHL) 5' 11.75" 188
2 32 Lucas Johansen D Kelowna (WHL) 6' 2" 173
3 62 Simon Stransky LW Prince Albert (WHL) 6' 0.5" 174
3 83 Jordan Sambrook D Erie (OHL) 6' 2" 186
3 89 Max Lajoie D Swift Current (WHL) 6' 0" 173
5 122 Tobias Eder C EC Bad Tölz (Oberliga) 5' 11" 165
5 150 Evan Sarthou G Tri-City (WHL) 6' 1" 170
6 152 Patrick Bajkov RW Everett (WHL) 5' 11" 175

I would be pretty happy with this as a draft for the Oilers

Tkachuk is defiantly bigger than that.