Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Spawn]

No. 4
Average Rating: 6.13
Best: Paul Kariya, Roberto Luongo, Nicklas Backstrom.
Worst: Alexandre Volchkov, Jason Bonsignore, Pavel Brendl.
Ranked 7 or better: 50.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 30.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 85.0%

No. 7
Average Rating: 5.40
Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Ryan Suter.
Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Lars Jonsson.
Ranked 7 or better: 35.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 40.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 90.0%

No. 20
Average Rating: 4.53
Best: Martin Brodeur, Alexander Frolov, Brent Burns.
Worst: David Fischer, Angelo Esposito.
Ranked 7 or better: 25.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 60.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 70.0%

I say probably but this isn't the best statistical way to look at it.

What do these numbers mean?

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

It's possible Chiarelli and Co just don't see one guy as BPA above all others. At 4, you could have a Yakupov situation where you feel like you need to pick a certain player because everyone thinks he's BPA. I wonder how we would have reacted at the the time if traded down to Draft a Rielly or Trouba?

 

[dem]

Arizona would make sense if we wanted to trade back..

Arizona gets 4th and 32nd
Edmonton gets 7th and 20th


Checks out on the value chart..

They could pick up Tkachuk..

I'd worry about 7th though. If we trade back I think it would be for Chychrun.. And I'd be nervous the Flames take him.

 

[Jet Walters]

It's possible Chiarelli and Co just don't see one guy as BPA above all others. At 4, you could have a Yakupov situation where you feel like you need to pick a certain player because everyone thinks he's BPA. I wonder how we would have reacted at the the time if traded down to Draft a Rielly or Trouba?

No one ever wanted to trade down during the years of suck. I remember proposing the Yakupov pick and Gagner for the Trouba pick, Ladd, and Byfuglien which was shot down unanimously.

I find the situation this year to be a bit different because the consensus BPA at 4 (Dubois/Tkachuk) both play a style of game that the Oilers actually need to add to the forward group.

 

[Panda Bear]

No. 4
Average Rating: 6.13
Best: Paul Kariya, Roberto Luongo, Nicklas Backstrom.
Worst: Alexandre Volchkov, Jason Bonsignore, Pavel Brendl.
Ranked 7 or better: 50.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 30.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 85.0%

No. 7
Average Rating: 5.40
Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Ryan Suter.
Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Lars Jonsson.
Ranked 7 or better: 35.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 40.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 90.0%

No. 20
Average Rating: 4.53
Best: Martin Brodeur, Alexander Frolov, Brent Burns.
Worst: David Fischer, Angelo Esposito.
Ranked 7 or better: 25.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 60.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 70.0%

I say probably but this isn't the best statistical way to look at it.

Source?

 

[Dorian2]

What do you click when you can't pronounce any of their names?

 

[Soundwave]

No one ever wanted to trade down during the years of suck. I remember proposing the Yakupov pick and Gagner for the Trouba pick, Ladd, and Byfuglien which was shot down unanimously.

I find the situation this year to be a bit different because the consensus BPA at 4 (Dubois/Tkachuk) both play a style of game that the Oilers actually need to add to the forward group.

Thank god it was shot down. We don't have Draisaitl or McDavid right now if that had happened

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Thank god it was shot down. We don't have Draisaitl or McDavid right now if that had happened

I guess the Juice WAS worth the squeeze

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

What do these numbers mean?

10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular
4 - Fringe NHLer
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

Arizona would make sense if we wanted to trade back..

Arizona gets 4th and 32nd
Edmonton gets 7th and 20th


Checks out on the value chart..

They could pick up Tkachuk..

I'd worry about 7th though. If we trade back I think it would be for Chychrun.. And I'd be nervous the Flames take him.

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

1026 to Arizona vs 1005 to Edmonton

we are overpaying according to this chart which isn't great, if we move down we need to have the better deal or really there isn't a reason to move down.

 

[Zaddy]

How do you all feel about the goalies in this draft? What seperates guys like Hart, Fitzpatrick and Gustavsson? Could Berdin and Sawchenko be in the mix for first goalie off the board? Who would you prefer for the Oilers to pick and where?

What about in the later rounds? Who's the best of LaFontaine, Raaymakers, Timpano, Cormier, Point, Woll, Parsons, Dillon and whoever else? What's up with Dylan Wells and Evan Sarthou? Are they write offs at this point?

I really don't evaluate goalies much as it's not my forte but just from what I've seen I think Gustavsson is my favorite right now. Had some viewings here and there of Fitzpatrick but not a fan at all.

For a later round pick I actually like Parsons. He stood out to me already last season as a solid goalie.

 

[djdub]

No. 4
Average Rating: 6.13
Best: Paul Kariya, Roberto Luongo, Nicklas Backstrom.
Worst: Alexandre Volchkov, Jason Bonsignore, Pavel Brendl.
Ranked 7 or better: 50.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 30.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 85.0%

No. 7
Average Rating: 5.40
Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Ryan Suter.
Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Lars Jonsson.
Ranked 7 or better: 35.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 40.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 90.0%

No. 20
Average Rating: 4.53
Best: Martin Brodeur, Alexander Frolov, Brent Burns.
Worst: David Fischer, Angelo Esposito.
Ranked 7 or better: 25.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 60.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 70.0%

I say probably but this isn't the best statistical way to look at it.

I've read this like 9 times and I still can't make any sense of it.

Can you please explain because it seems interesting...

 

[The Nuge]

I've read this like 9 times and I still can't make any sense of it.

Can you please explain because it seems interesting...

The ratings are in hallhopkinseberle's post a couple up, and are the average of the players taken in that position

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm in on lottery for draft tickets through friend with Sabres seasons tickets. Heard these things were free in the past, but $30US for lower bowl isn't too shabby.

I've always wanted to go and just watch the GM's in action, so fingers crossed. It would have been so much more special if Oilers were set up to take one of the Finns.

Downside... if I go, I'll be surrounded by Leaf fans.

 

[Nugey McNugeson]

He's 6'6 yet he looks so smooth with the puck, very impressive

 

[TheRebuild]

I guess the Juice WAS worth the squeeze

It was worth it, but it was one SOUR grapefruit.

 

[Paralyzer]

I'm in on lottery for draft tickets through friend with Sabres seasons tickets. Heard these things were free in the past, but $30US for lower bowl isn't too shabby.

I've always wanted to go and just watch the GM's in action, so fingers crossed. It would have been so much more special if Oilers were set up to take one of the Finns.

Downside... if I go, I'll be surrounded by Leaf fans.

When the Leafs take Laine over Matthews, I'd love to hear the groaning

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

He's 6'6 yet he looks so smooth with the puck, very impressive

If Edmonton holds at 4 and he's there guy, I won't be upset. I know people will say "but you can't pick him at 4" Anaheim didn't trade down when they took a leap for Lindholm. Worked out well for them.

When the Leafs take Laine over Matthews, I'd love to hear the groaning

Haha. I just can't see it happening. But if it does it will only take 5 minutes before the article "Can Laine become the greatest goal scorer of all time" is on TSN's front page.

 

[Digger12]

He's 6'6 yet he looks so smooth with the puck, very impressive

Looking at those highlights, I can see why a GM would be impressed. Huge center with outstanding playmaking ability and a very smooth skater with better than average faceoff stats (53% for the regular season), it's hard to look at him and not compare him to Draisaitl because he looks like he plays quite similar, each has their own pluses and minuses:

Skating: Brown looks like he's definitely the more naturally good skater, which is amazing considering he's a 6'6" skyscraper. Hard to judge who has the better straight ahead speed given those highlights, that might be the one skating aspect that Drai is superior at because when he gets moving he's actually quite fast.

Shooting: Another thing hard to judge with those highlights, but Brown's shot looks OK, IMO Draisaitl might have a better release and maybe better touch around the net.

Playmaking: Brown is a very good playmaker just like Draisaitl, though IMO they go about it in slightly different ways...to me it looked like Brown leverages his outstanding mobility and size/strength to get himself in advantageous positions to set up his teammates. Draisaitl likes to use his size as well, but he's more stationary and likes to draw opponents to him before setting up teammates with pinpoint passing from both forehand and backhand.

He did finish well for his OHL season, in his last 13 games he had 11 goals and 13 assists with 39 shots on goal. In his prior 46 games he had 10 goals and 40 assists with 119 shots on goal, so you can definitely see the big 2nd half to the year that Chiarelli often mentions about him, though it's more accurate to say he had a big final month to the season that a big 2nd half.

Not a guy I'd pick at 4, but 6-10 I'd say he's someone you could pick and not apologize for it.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Trade the pick for Lawson Crouse or Tom Wilson or Nick Ritchie.

 

[Jet Walters]

Trade the pick for Lawson Crouse or Tom Wilson or Nick Ritchie.

Plus those teams late 1st round pick, right?

Dubois might play a similar game in terms of physicality as those three while being much better offensively.

I'd sooner trade RNH or Eberle for a package with one of those players coming back than the pick.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

I'm in on lottery for draft tickets through friend with Sabres seasons tickets. Heard these things were free in the past, but $30US for lower bowl isn't too shabby.

I've always wanted to go and just watch the GM's in action, so fingers crossed. It would have been so much more special if Oilers were set up to take one of the Finns.

Downside... if I go, I'll be surrounded by Leaf fans.

Last year it was free or you could upgrade your tickets to $20 I believe and get all you can eat burger sliders, sushi, lamb chops and free liquor. It's an amazing experience you'll love it. All the GMs, media and players walking around the arena.

 

[Zaddy]

Just found this beauty of Jonathan Dahlén. Wouldn't mind Chia taking this kid with his 2nd round pick one bit

 

[MoneyGuy]

Just found this beauty of Jonathan Dahlén. Wouldn't mind Chia taking this kid with his 2nd round pick one bit

I hope that's an old photo because he looks like he should be calling Johnnie Gaudreau "sir."

 

[Canovin]

If Edmonton holds at 4 and he's there guy, I won't be upset. I know people will say "but you can't pick him at 4" Anaheim didn't trade down when they took a leap for Lindholm. Worked out well for them.

The Ducks went out and said they would have taken Lindholm 1st overall. That's how much confidence they have in their scouts. But I trust their scouts and development team to pull that off more than I trust the Oilers