Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Spawn]

Chia already said that he expects an NHL player to move DOWN. So he is not trading #4 for #9 and #42 or something stupid. #42 is worthless when you talk of the talent at #4. Its not in the same conversation. Its an NHL player Chia wants to move down. Thats the cost.

The appetite of teams wanting to draft Tkachuk is ever increasing as he proves to be stirring the playoff drink.


Its a premium price to pay to get into the top 5. PERIOD. pay or get away.

Chia actually said:

"I've made it known that we'll look to trade down if the right deal is there in the context of just a pure trade down, or a trade down with kind of giving up the value of the draft numbers, in getting a draft pick and an NHL player."

Chia flat out said he'd be open to trading down even if it was just for more picks. Seems like he's very open to it.

 

[oilinblood]

Just based on the last two interviews Chia has had on the subject- I'm thinking the 3 players he really likes are Tkachuk, Brown, and Sergachev, he's been openly vocal about the first two, but the last one he just briefly mentioned and didn't seem to want to linger on it, I think trying to camouflage our actual interest level /w regards to the player. I can already imagine an interview now, where he trades down 3-4 spots drafts Sergachev talks about that's who we wanted anyway at 4 and was lucky enough to get him later on while adding free assets along the way like general mangers who trade down love doing.

Sergachev is my favorite too. CHia is exactly right to be advertising our interest in Tkachuk.
If I am Chia...I am talking Tkachuk EVERY interview. I am talking how happy i will be to grab that guy. Look at him dominate the best junior league. Let every team know he is off the board if they dont pay up. There is ZERO doubt he would be in the conversation for #3 (but i expect CLB--being managed by that group--will be leaning towards a Finn anyways). Tkachuk IS in that 3/4 spot now. Stirring the drink for London in the post-season.

Offers WILL be coming in.

 

[oilinblood]

Chia actually said:

"I've made it known that we'll look to trade down if the right deal is there in the context of just a pure trade down, or a trade down with kind of giving up the value of the draft numbers, in getting a draft pick and an NHL player."

Chia flat out said he'd be open to trading down even if it was just for more picks. Seems like he's very open to it.

Yup
your quote is right...it can be heard at

http://www.630ched.com/2016/05/09/b...arts-what-should-be-a-busy-oilers-off-season/

everyone has heard it...and it is "IF THE RIGHT DEAL is there" I think of PHO with 2 firsts and only a couple spots down. It has to be the RIGHT DEAL. He is also well aware he has top pick of the "rest". Nobody is getting into the top 3. He has the most valuable pick POSSIBLY available at the draft and he is aware. Some, unpathetic, franchises get to pick as high as #4 once every thirty years. its for "the right deal".
THere was no break in his thought. WHen he says "OR"...he is not using "or" to state two different hypothetical possibility...he is still on his first thought. its not option 1 or option 2...he states "or" as his bridge to show two thoughts that mean the same thing to him (clarification). A pure trade down in history from Franchise/Allstar position of top 5 IS a player and pick.

I am saying Chia, like history, expects a player plus pick or an additional 1st to move down. All Stars are at 4.

I heard it too. I know what he said. everyones heard it. the cost of a top five pick is well documented.


Im trying to think if any GM has traded out of the top 5 for less than a NHL player EVER (even in crap drafts where they didnt have a top 4-6 like this), in the history of the draft.

I would, and ive said it before, love to see us trade with PHO. it makes TONNES of sense for them to want Tkachuk and their draft position makes sense. but we arent dropping even 2 spots and taking the hit on player asset value for a 30% chancer 2nd rounder. that other 1st or a roster player comes OR we draft the guy everyone wants after Matthews and Laine and is in talk for 3rd.
Drop to 6th take Serg and use the 20th. or drop again if you still feel serg will be avail and return is worth risk.

***Also someone was ranting about how a GM could be so bad at Math regarding the odds. CHia stated his best odds were to drop by only one and go to3 . The odds are actually in the favor for teams to retain their placement. he is stating that the odds out of three draws, of MORE than 1 team leap frogging INTO the top three were low. I felt the same way. I expected us to win or drop 1 at most. I hope they keep this draft lotto weighting.

 

[Zaddy]

I actually think a lot of the teams below us in the draft standings would be interested in trading up. Montreal to nab Dubois, Buffalo and Arizona to get their choice of the three d-men and Avs had a disappointing year and looks like they want to shake up their core.

Even Canucks could be interested in moving up one spot to nab Tkachuk. Only team I don't see moving anywhere would be the Flames who'll get one of Tkachuk/Dubois/Nylander guaranteed. It's unlikely but we might see multiple trade down from Chia. From 4 to 5 and then from 5 to 7-9.

I would be fine with that. I don't think there's much seperating the prospects in the 4-9 range and to me it's almost impossible to predict who is going to be the best player of the bunch. Trading down and accumulating more assets, whether that's NHL players or picks, is not a bad idea. Either we flip those picks for NHL players or use them to re-stock the barren cupboards.

You could still come out the draft with Sergachyov + additional picks and an NHLer and I think that could be more valuable than staying at #4 and taking Dubois/Tkachuk, although I still want Dubois at #4 badly...

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I actually think a lot of the teams below us in the draft standings would be interested in trading up. Montreal to nab Dubois, Buffalo and Arizona to get their choice of the three d-men and Avs had a disappointing year and looks like they want to shake up their core.

Even Canucks could be interested in moving up one spot to nab Tkachuk. Only team I don't see moving anywhere would be the Flames who'll get one of Tkachuk/Dubois/Nylander guaranteed. It's unlikely but we might see multiple trade down from Chia. From 4 to 5 and then from 5 to 7-9.

I would be fine with that. I don't think there's much seperating the prospects in the 4-9 range and to me it's almost impossible to predict who is going to be the best player of the bunch. Trading down and accumulating more assets, whether that's NHL players or picks, is not a bad idea. Either we flip those picks for NHL players or use them to re-stock the barren cupboards.

You could still come out the draft with Sergachyov + additional picks and an NHLer and I think that could be more valuable than staying at #4 and taking Dubois/Tkachuk, although I still want Dubois at #4 badly...

Arizona will probably have their choice of d-men at 7. I think Dubois, Tkachuk and Nylander go 4-6. Buffalo will get a good dman at 8 too.

 

[oilinblood]

I actually think a lot of the teams below us in the draft standings would be interested in trading up. Montreal to nab Dubois, Buffalo and Arizona to get their choice of the three d-men and Avs had a disappointing year and looks like they want to shake up their core.

Even Canucks could be interested in moving up one spot to nab Tkachuk. Only team I don't see moving anywhere would be the Flames who'll get one of Tkachuk/Dubois/Nylander guaranteed. It's unlikely but we might see multiple trade down from Chia. From 4 to 5 and then from 5 to 7-9.

I would be fine with that. I don't think there's much seperating the prospects in the 4-9 range and to me it's almost impossible to predict who is going to be the best player of the bunch. Trading down and accumulating more assets, whether that's NHL players or picks, is not a bad idea. Either we flip those picks for NHL players or use them to re-stock the barren cupboards.

You could still come out the draft with Sergachyov + additional picks and an NHLer and I think that could be more valuable than staying at #4 and taking Dubois/Tkachuk, although I still want Dubois at #4 badly...

Have you listened to their management? Nylander is not on their radar, if you go by the way they are talking. BIG BIG BIG BIG BIG. Thats what they want. They got Johnny and 2 other pint sizers coming in their pipeline. If they want to compete in the west...AS THEY SAID...they have no room for any others. As Burke said...They all have to play big Ferocious and Truculence blah blah. Brian Burke, the guy who was handed a nice team on a platter then got Scott Niedermayer for free, AND THEN Pronger for Free. That is his only winning experience. A team handed to him.

I would suggest they dont have Nylander in their mind at all. I see Burke after Tkachuk, or a D
Again i hate the Q to judge as its just not at par with OHL or WHL...(dubois i dont care about)

But i agree about the rest.

I read through my post and it always seems like im being aggressive with my posts, at the start, but im not. i dont even know how to reword that. I know it carries a certain tone strangely. If i start with a question it auto sounds like im being a jerk. sorry. just honestly asking. Because if they have talked about Nylander it goes against everything they have said since firing Hartley

 

[CdnFan]

Arizona will probably have their choice of d-men at 7. I think Dubois, Tkachuk and Nylander go 4-6. Buffalo will get a good dman at 8 too.

I can see Logan Brown jumping up into that grouping of forwards ahead of the defensemen as well.

 

[Zaddy]

Arizona will probably have their choice of d-men at 7. I think Dubois, Tkachuk and Nylander go 4-6. Buffalo will get a good dman at 8 too.

Probably yeah, but you never know. It's not a foregone conclusion that Oilers and Canucks go with a forward, they could just easily go with d-men, even though I expect both to go with a forward. But Canucks could use a young stud d-man in the system. For forwards they already have good depth with Horvat, McCann, Virtanen, Boeser and Gaunce. On the blueline they don't really have much in the system that would resemble a top4 D, let alone top pairing. They're going to need someone to take over for Edler and Hamhuis down the road, especially Hamhuis who could be gone this summer. If I'm not mistaken Benning is pretty high on Juolevi too.

For the Oilers you never know and even if Chia doesn't plan on taking a d-man it would be smart of him to sell the idea to Sabres/Coyotes that he would. If that's the case then they might think 2 of Juolevi, Chychrun and Sergachyov might be gone and hell, Buffalo could be left without one of the big 3. And even if there'd still be someone left it might not be the guy they want. From my experience GM's really like to move up in the draft to take "their guy", rather than letting other teams dictate who'll be left to pick.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my side, I don't know, but I think both those teams would be willing to move up, especially Buffalo. Even more so if you consider Tim Murray and his style of managing his team. He is really aggressive and has shown that he is willing to overpay if it means that he's getting "his guy".

Have you listened to their management? Nylander is not on their radar, if you go by the way they are talking. BIG BIG BIG BIG BIG. Thats what they want. They got Johnny and 2 other pint sizers coming in their pipeline. If they want to compete in the west...AS THEY SAID...they have no room for any others. As Burke said...They all have to play big Ferocious and Truculence blah blah. Brian Burke, the guy who was handed a nice team on a platter then got Scott Niedermayer for free, AND THEN Pronger for Free. That is his only winning experience. A team handed to him.

I would suggest they dont have Nylander in their mind at all. I see Burke after Tkachuk, or a D
Again i hate the Q to judge as its just not at par with OHL or WHL...(dubois i dont care about)

But i agree about the rest.

I read through my post and it always seems like im being aggressive with my posts, at the start, but im not. i dont even know how to reword that. I know it carries a certain tone strangely. If i start with a question it auto sounds like im being a jerk. sorry. just honestly asking. Because if they have talked about Nylander it goes against everything they have said since firing Hartley

I have not, but I have to think Nylander would still be a top option. Calgary literally have 1 right-handed shot in their forward group and that's Josh Jooris, a bottom-six guy. They desperately need a high-end player who is right-handed and Nylander fits that bill. Gaudreau-Monahan-Nylander would be a hell of a line too.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

Just learnt that Chychrun's uncle is Luke Richardson

 

[Mr Sakich]

Phx is probably pretty high on Tkachuk. The kid was born in Scottsdale and would do wonders for hockey development and marketing. The Yotes are still in a place where they are forced to consider this as well as pure hockey decisions.

They have an extra first round pick. Historically, 7+20 for 4 is probably close to fair value

 

[McWeber]

Have you listened to their management? Nylander is not on their radar, if you go by the way they are talking. BIG BIG BIG BIG BIG. Thats what they want. They got Johnny and 2 other pint sizers coming in their pipeline. If they want to compete in the west...AS THEY SAID...they have no room for any others. As Burke said...They all have to play big Ferocious and Truculence blah blah. Brian Burke, the guy who was handed a nice team on a platter then got Scott Niedermayer for free, AND THEN Pronger for Free. That is his only winning experience. A team handed to him.

I would suggest they dont have Nylander in their mind at all. I see Burke after Tkachuk, or a D
Again i hate the Q to judge as its just not at par with OHL or WHL...(dubois i dont care about)

But i agree about the rest.

I read through my post and it always seems like im being aggressive with my posts, at the start, but im not. i dont even know how to reword that. I know it carries a certain tone strangely. If i start with a question it auto sounds like im being a jerk. sorry. just honestly asking. Because if they have talked about Nylander it goes against everything they have said since firing Hartley

Going to have to agree, the Flames are a very small team. While they do have a need for RH shots as another poster mentioned, size comes at a premium and they can't afford to pass on it when this draft is chock full of skilled size. Unfortunately the only sports radio station I can get in my vehicle is sportsnet 960 so I have to hear far too much about the Flames. I would be quite shocked to see them opt for Nylander over Brown, Tkchuk or Dubois.

 

[bestmyfeeling]

just for my on knowledge, whats everyone's opinions on our later picks (assuming we keep them all) don't really know the prospect pool well this year, what would be our targets/keep an eye on players for picks in 2nd, 3rd, etc...rounds?

 

[PKSpecialist]

just for my on knowledge, whats everyone's opinions on our later picks (assuming we keep them all) don't really know the prospect pool well this year, what would be our targets/keep an eye on players for picks in 2nd, 3rd, etc...rounds?

Hate to give away some of my picks for the mock draft, but there are several targets for the 3rd round as right shot d-men.

Adam Fox(doubt he falls to 3rd)
Jacob Cederholm
David Bernhardt

Later rounds David Quenneville and Nikita Makeyev come to mind.

I am very high on two skilled centres from Russia named Mikhail. Meshcheryakov and Maltsev.

Some wingers for the third round include Matt Filipe, Ty Ronning, Yevgeni Mityakin, Joey Anderson.

Joseph Woll is a rising net minder who should be available in the late third and on.

 

[Zaddy]

Hate to give away some of my picks for the mock draft, but there are several targets for the 3rd round as right shot d-men.

Adam Fox(doubt he falls to 3rd)
Jacob Cederholm
David Bernhardt

Later rounds David Quenneville and Nikita Makeyev come to mind.

I am very high on two skilled centres from Russia named Mikhail. Meshcheryakov and Maltsev.

Some wingers for the third round include Matt Filipe, Ty Ronning, Yevgeni Mityakin, Joey Anderson.

Joseph Woll is a rising net minder who should be available in the late third and on.

Not a fan at all of Cederholm to be honest. Sure he's big and an OK skater but I don't see much more than that to his game. Has never shown an ability to produce against his own age group and his defensive game is overrated. I think best case scenario he turns into someone like Jonathan Ericsson. Don't think it's worth using a 3rd round pick on that. Maybe in the 5th...

I like Meshcheryakov but I don't think he'll be a very high pick. He's probably gonna be around in the later rounds, might even go undrafted.

Joey Anderson is definitely someone we should look at in the 3rd round. Lots to like about him and the type of prospect we could use in the organization. The only thing that worries me about him is that he is going to college route and might be looking to stay 4 years and signing somewhere else. Then again, Connuh McDavid is a pretty good selling point...

 

[Seachd]

For those who love ranking prospects, I've started a blind mock draft. These have been hit-and-miss in the past, but they're always pretty interesting: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2076373

 

[bestmyfeeling]

thanks

 

[Fourier]

***Also someone was ranting about how a GM could be so bad at Math regarding the odds. CHia stated his best odds were to drop by only one and go to3 . The odds are actually in the favor for teams to retain their placement. he is stating that the odds out of three draws, of MORE than 1 team leap frogging INTO the top three were low. I felt the same way. I expected us to win or drop 1 at most. I hope they keep this draft lotto weighting.

The point of the "rant" was that this model or his interpretation of it, as well as your sense of how the odds play out, were wrong. At no point in the lottery was it more likely to stay in the top three than it was to drop out if it.

This may well seem like a small point but if the team's draft strategy is based around faulty interpretation of such an event then that is not a good thing. We have ample evidence to suggest that analytics are starting to impact decision making in a real way. If that is going to be the case then it is very important that a) the people compiling the data know what they are doing, and b) that the people who are making the decisions understand what it is they are being told that the data says. In this instance there is evidence of a failure of either a) or b) or both.

With respect to the players in the draft for my viewing of the OHL kids Tkachuk is quite a bit ahead of any of the defensemen. I base this on his play in the last two months and in the playoffs. Early in year when I saw London play it was very much Marner and then Dvorak and Tkachuk. In several playoff games I would say that Tkachuk was the primary driver of that line even over Marner. And Marner is an absolutely first rate talent. I'd also say that he complements the other two much better than Domi did for example, which is actually a good thing for the Oilers because not all talented kids play nice with others.

On the Oilers Tkachuk's role would be to be a complementary player with possibly the best go to guy in the league as his linemate. Not only does he not have to be the primary puck carrier playing with McDavid for example he should NOT be. This si actually something that Hall and to a lesser degee Eberle bith need to do better. When you play with McDavid give him the puck and just go get open.

Factor in Tkachuk's size and his bloodlines and you have a guy who in many years would be more like a #2 than a #4. People sometimes mention Landeskog, who played right in my backyard. I loved Landeskopg with the Rangers but there is no way in my mind that he was at the same level as a junior as Tkachuk is now. He was probably a little stronger and more physically mature. But skillwise Tkachuk has this one by a fair bit. And this comes from a person who is also high on Duboi, though I have sen much less of him.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

The point of the "rant" was that this model or his interpretation of it, as well as your sense of how the odds play out, were wrong. At no point in the lottery was it more likely to stay in the top three than it was to drop out if it.

This may well seem like a small point but if the team's draft strategy is based around faulty interpretation of such an event then that is not a good thing. We have ample evidence to suggest that analytics are starting to impact decision making in a real way. If that is going to be the case then it is very important that a) the people compiling the data know what they are doing, and b) that the people who are making the decisions understand what it is they are being told that the data says. In this instance there is evidence of a failure of either a) or b) or both.

I'm not sure the draft strategy is based on where they felt they had the best odds to pick...

As for the data thing, I think it is absolutely ridiculous. Teams are taking stats and analytics a bit too far. They can be a wonderful tool if you're debating between two players of similar skill and value, but otherwise, these people need to do what they always did and just use your ******* eyes and brains to make the judgement calls.

Maloney did an amazing job for working with a budget team that couldn't draw any free agents because everybody feared the teams future.

Tallon built a cup winner in Chicago and got pooched. Then he built an incredible program in Florida, gave that team their best regular season ever, and they look to be the future powerhouse of the East, and they replace him for stats and analytics?

 

[Fourier]

I'm not sure the draft strategy is based on where they felt they had the best odds to pick...

As for the data thing, I think it is absolutely ridiculous. Teams are taking stats and analytics a bit too far. They can be a wonderful tool if you're debating between two players of similar skill and value, but otherwise, these people need to do what they always did and just use your ******* eyes and brains to make the judgement calls.

Maloney did an amazing job for working with a budget team that couldn't draw any free agents because everybody feared the teams future.

Tallon built a cup winner in Chicago and got pooched. Then he built an incredible program in Florida, gave that team their best regular season ever, and they look to be the future powerhouse of the East, and they replace him for stats and analytics?

The comment about draft strategy was probably too strong. But it is clear from Chia's reaction that he was expecting a top 3 pick and it is quite likely that this did factor into some of their pre-lottery planning talks. Of course they have lots of time to adjust, but he should have been made aware that the most likely event was being out of the top 3.

Where something like this could come into play to a degree is in contemplating a deal that involves a future #1. If you don't understand the lottery it is harder to properly value that pick. As I said in the end it is a minor point but it is not something that should happen to an NHL GM.

 

[Tarus]

Phx is probably pretty high on Tkachuk. The kid was born in Scottsdale and would do wonders for hockey development and marketing. The Yotes are still in a place where they are forced to consider this as well as pure hockey decisions.

They have an extra first round pick. Historically, 7+20 for 4 is probably close to fair value

So would Mathews

PR departments don't dictate hockey decisions though, especially not when they just hired a statistician as the GM.

 

[Draiskull]

So would Mathews

PR departments don't dictate hockey decisions though, especially not when they just hired a statistician as the GM.

Well a good statstician will surely be impressed with Tkachuk's stats these playoffs..

Also statistically speaking the chances of the 4thoverall being better than 7th+20th are a lot higher..

I think Chia would be open to a trade down with ARI unless he feels that picks 3/4/5 are now in a tier of their own..

 

[Jet Walters]

Well a good statstician will surely be impressed with Tkachuk's stats these playoffs..

Also statistically speaking the chances of the 4thoverall being better than 7th+20th are a lot higher..

I think Chia would be open to a trade down with ARI unless he feels that picks 3/4/5 are now in a tier of their own..

Speaking of Tkachuk's stats can anyone tell me about his ES production vs his PP production? I've heard he is great on the PP, but a left shot PP producer seems to be at the bottom of my list of Oilers needs.

 

[Aerchon]

Chia actually said:

"I've made it known that we'll look to trade down if the right deal is there in the context of just a pure trade down, or a trade down with kind of giving up the value of the draft numbers, in getting a draft pick and an NHL player."

Chia flat out said he'd be open to trading down even if it was just for more picks. Seems like he's very open to it.

He follows that with the trade down for an NHLer being very difficult to manage to pull off.

The context of the conversation was thinking outside the box, not that this strategy was likely. Stauffer had to push for this stuff, it wasn't like Chiarelli would have even mentioned it otherwise I don't think.

Chiarelli had previously said the pick is in play for a roster player and that he would be open to draft Dubios or Tkachuk.

Having said all that perhaps he is getting prepared for another disappointing off season. A trade down scenario is an epic fail and pushes immediate team success far down the totem pole.

Without Harmonic pushing the trade market for top 4 right shooters it's very bleak.

Even Hall for XXX becomes much less viable.

Trades take two parties and if the other side doesn't want to dance all you can do is go home and play with yourself.

 

[Spawn]

Well a good statstician will surely be impressed with Tkachuk's stats these playoffs..

Also statistically speaking the chances of the 4thoverall being better than 7th+20th are a lot higher..

I think Chia would be open to a trade down with ARI unless he feels that picks 3/4/5 are now in a tier of their own..

Is that actually true statistically speaking? I'd be interested in seeing the analysis on that.

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

Is that actually true statistically speaking? I'd be interested in seeing the analysis on that.

No. 4
Average Rating: 6.13
Best: Paul Kariya, Roberto Luongo, Nicklas Backstrom.
Worst: Alexandre Volchkov, Jason Bonsignore, Pavel Brendl.
Ranked 7 or better: 50.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 30.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 85.0%

No. 7
Average Rating: 5.40
Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Ryan Suter.
Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Lars Jonsson.
Ranked 7 or better: 35.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 40.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 90.0%

No. 20
Average Rating: 4.53
Best: Martin Brodeur, Alexander Frolov, Brent Burns.
Worst: David Fischer, Angelo Esposito.
Ranked 7 or better: 25.0%
Ranked 5 or worse: 60.0%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 70.0%

I say probably but this isn't the best statistical way to look at it.