Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[nexttothemoon]

Well if we are using PIM as anything to go by (obviously doesn't tell the whole story but can be indicative of "truculence" )... then Bellows should be right there in the conversation with Dubois as well...

The Draft Analyst - March , 2016 - "Bellows is a well-built goal scorer with a low center of gravity who can play a punishing, heavy yet cerebral game. He’s a good skater with tremendous balance and moves well laterally. And while he used play center for Edina’s powerhouse high school program, Bellows is most certainly better suited as a shooter from the flank. He’s built like a Mack truck and plays with fire, using tremendous athleticism and work ethic to maintain his compete level, even during extended shifts. He’s extremely difficult to move off the puck, and he’s proven to be a load to handle for some of the NCAA’s bigger defensemen. Bellows is a hard, accurate passer, but can also feather a pass off the rush or lead his teammates with timing and precision."

Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects - 2016 - "Kieffer Bellows is a skilled power forward that can dominate games. Possesses high end puckhandling ability as well as a crisp, accurate release on his shot. Proficient forechecker and loves to win puck battles, which stands out as a consistent part of his game. Strong skater that can bull through the opposition or go around them. Drives the net hard and is a decisive finisher. All-in-all, a competitor that punishes the opposition physically, as well as on the scoreboard."

 

[oilinblood]

We need to trade up for Laine or trade the pick for a defender.

#4 and what for Laine?

THe #1 and 2 picks are untouchable. Those are franchise players and i would suspect HHOF players. I think if another team other than CLB was picking at 3 YOU MIGHT have a chance that PULJUJARVI drops that one spot to us. But with their GM i seriously doubt it happening...and doubt that pick gets traded for any cost.

I dont see any of the top 3 picks being moved but would love to see CLB try to get 2-3. We need SOME Burke like shenanigans (also Tambi tried hard to get #2/ Seguin from Boston at the Draft).

This might be the first draft where i can see some real push to wheel and deal but those three teams... are the worst three teams to have up there for wheeling and dealing (with the prospects specifically in mind).
Its one of the things that disappointed me about the lotto results. There is alost zero chance for something developing there. Could have been alot worse though...so i count my lucky stars.


*** i have this idea in my head that Edmonton won one of those spots but the league rolled its eyes and begged us to forfeit it in return for something later lol.*** I was so surprised we didnt win one of three draws. seems unbelievable

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I feel Charlie McAvoy is being severely underrated and I have to start pushing him here on the boards. I feel he could very well be the best dman in this draft. He put up solid numbers as a freshman in the NCAA... every bit as good as Hanifin/Werenski did last season.

He's got solid size at 6' 208 lbs and has a mean streak to go along with it. Skates well... heavy shot... good on the PP. Plus he's a RH shot... which is a huge bonus.

Here's a short write up...

The Draft Analyst - March 25, 2016 - "He’s a confident puck carrier who attacks openings with speed, but can also slow it down and patiently weigh his options. Always moving his feet, McAvoy is capable of slipping through gaps without the puck, or stickhandling around traffic while keeping the puck close to his body. He has a heavy shot that can be delivered with accuracy, and his passes are tape to tape, An undervalued part of his game is physicality, which gets him in hot water as he’s still learning the difference between a timely, legal bone-crushing hit and gross negligence of the rule book."


I'll go on record right now saying I think this is the dman the Oilers should take in the 1st round with their pick.

Yes even at #4... but obviously since he's not regarded that highly by many... trading down to snag him would be optimal... but I really hope they do pick him somehow as I think he has #1D potential and the fact he's a RHD is a nice bonus.

He's my personal pick over all other players in this draft for that #4 pick of the Oilers.

I haven't really got the viewings in on McAvoy to have a strong opinion, but going on youtube highlights McAvoy looks like he isn't nearly as skilled as Juolevi and Sergachev. Sergachev is the kind of offensive d-man we badly need great rushing the puck and a nice shot and Juolevi is a cerebral player who reads the play well and is good at making the right play consistently which are generally my favorite type, I'm also a fan of Jake Bean he has also looked quite good when I've watched him. I can't say McAvoy would be a terrible pick at 4, but I'd treat it with a lot of skepticism like when the Kings stepped up and grabbed Hickey early.

 

[oilinblood]

Juolevi scares me tbh. He's a great puck mover, but very little about his offensive game screams elite to me. His point totals in London are also very poor considering their top line. If we're taking a D I'd prefer Chychrun or Sergachev, although I still think Chychrun is the safest choice with Sergachev having high boom/bust potential.

Dubois would be my first choice, but I wouldn't be mad if we took Tkachuk because he's another feisty hard working player with skill and once he fills out he could be a gallagher/marchand (style wise) type player, but at a 6'1 210~ frame.

Dubois would just be a great fit though to finish adding size to the team down the road in the top 9.

Then there's the dream that Pulju slips because CLB needs a centre which would be ideal due to his RH shot and size. Not to mention his high IQ and elite skating.

I concur on the D rankings except for the boom/bust thing on Serg. I think Serg has proven what you are getting with him. I feel he is asafe pick and is ahead of Chychy. Juolevi i think will drop in the draft. SAYING THAT, i do think those are the top 3 Dmen FOR SURE.

 

[J4M13M]

Bpa every time and Dubois is not a natural Center he was moved there this season.

I haven't watched very much of the others, but I know Dubois as a prospect very well. He's one of those opposing team players fans "hate," in that he's frustratingly good. My Sea Dogs beat his Screaming Eagles in the playoffs, and he was a pretty big factor in a physical series, although he was eventually on the losing side.

The fact that he was shifted to centre and didn't miss a beat speaks to his hockey IQ and coachability IMO. He has all the physical and mental tools to be a quality pro, but he's a little raw and opponents can rattle sometimes (I'd imagine this is true with any teenager, much less teenaged hockey player).

He doesn't always play physical, but if he's in a matchup with a smaller player, or someone who panics when pressured, he's all over them. He doesn't shy away from the physical play with begger opponents, but he tends to pick his battles. Kind of like a bully, but that's smart when it comes to hockey IMO. He's also surprisingly creative and uses his linemates well, and is a quality decoy at the Q level. Defenders cheat to cover him and his linemates use the open ice.

He was suspended a couple times for hits the Q deemed dangerous or reckless, but when playing against men, most of those hits would probably be considered more tough than dirty.

Would he be a good pick at number 4? I think so. Again, I don't know about the pother options available, but Dubois is definitely a blue-chip NHL prospect, and I'd hazard a guess that he's a "Chiarelli-type" player. If the Oilers draft him, they should demand that he gets traded to the Sea Dogs though,

 

[nexttothemoon]

I haven't really got the viewings in on McAvoy to have a strong opinion, but going on youtube highlights McAvoy looks like he isn't nearly as skilled as Juolevi and Sergachev. Sergachev is the kind of offensive d-man we badly need great rushing the puck and a nice shot and Juolevi is a cerebral player who reads the play well and is good at making the right play consistently which are generally my favorite type, I'm also a fan of Jake Bean he has also looked quite good when I've watched him. I can't say McAvoy would be a terrible pick at 4, but I'd treat it with a lot of skepticism like when the Kings stepped up and grabbed Hickey early.

I like Sergachev and Chychrun as well... and if the Oilers chose one of them at #4... they wouldn't be "bad" choices. It's just that I think McAvoy has the best combo of size, skill and physicality and the fact that he's a RH shot cements him as the #1 dman prospect for me in this draft... but even if he was a LH shot I'd still choose him as the #1 dman prospect.

Sergachev looks good as well and to me he's #2 with Chychrun #3.

 

[Zaddy]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/stephen.burtch#!/vizhome/OHLQMJHLShooters/Sheet2

Interesting tool where you can see every player in the OHL and QMJHL that has taken a shot and from where those shots have come from / what type of quality they are of. Not sure how useful it is or what kind of conclusions you can draw from it but certainly seemed interesting.

 

[Giggli G]

It's pretty tough to deny the impressiveness of what Tkachuk is doing in the playoff right now, regardless of Marner's participation on his line. Over a goal per game, 39pts in 16 games.

By the way, meshing well with other skill player is a talent. If he can be an elite complementary winger with some grit, he could be exactly what we all wished Eberle could become, except a left shot.

 

[Soundwave]

It's pretty tough to deny the impressiveness of what Tkachuk is doing in the playoff right now, regardless of Marner's participation on his line. Over a goal per game, 39pts in 16 games.

By the way, meshing well with other skill player is a talent. If he can be an elite complementary winger with some grit, he could be exactly what we all wished Eberle could become, except a left shot.

We'll have to look at both pretty closely (Dubois and Tkachuk).

 

[Zaddy]

It's pretty tough to deny the impressiveness of what Tkachuk is doing in the playoff right now, regardless of Marner's participation on his line. Over a goal per game, 39pts in 16 games.

Definitely. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of taking him at #4.

By the way, meshing well with other skill player is a talent. If he can be an elite complementary winger with some grit, he could be exactly what we all wished Eberle could become, except a left shot.

Yeah, you can look at it two ways. Either he is leeching of more talented players or he's a guy who is able to mesh with great talent and produce accordingly. Fact is he was really successful with Matthews as his centre on the USNTDP team and he's really good with Marner and Dvorak too.

Considering Hall hasn't meshed with McDavid and is more likely to have Drai as his centre going forward Tkachuk could be McDavids LW for the future. I don't think it's inconceivable that he is NHL ready and could play that role already next year, although it's not something that you should be counting on. What it does though is that it would allow us to move Pouliot (and Yak, if that rumored deal with Anaheim becomes reality) without creating too big of a hole. Maroon could play 2nd line LW until Tkachuk is ready. Having a winger that can really mesh with McDavid would be really valuable.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Definitely. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of taking him at #4.



Yeah, you can look at it two ways. Either he is leeching of more talented players or he's a guy who is able to mesh with great talent and produce accordingly. Fact is he was really successful with Matthews as his centre on the USNTDP team and he's really good with Marner and Dvorak too.

Considering Hall hasn't meshed with McDavid and is more likely to have Drai as his centre going forward Tkachuk could be McDavids LW for the future. I don't think it's inconceivable that he is NHL ready and could play that role already next year, although it's not something that you should be counting on. What it does though is that it would allow us to move Pouliot (and Yak, if that rumored deal with Anaheim becomes reality) without creating too big of a hole. Maroon could play 2nd line LW until Tkachuk is ready. Having a winger that can really mesh with McDavid would be really valuable.

I agree that you can't really fault a player for playing on a good line/team. I mean he is putting up great numbers while doing so and he plays a fairly aggressive/gritty style and has decent size and wheels and a scoring touch so what's the problem.

The issue I think many here have is that they've been burnt by the Gagner pick and now anytime a player plays on a good team or line... they think it's that same situation all over again.

Every player is different though and you can't go by what happened nearly a decade ago and let that cloud your outlook on another prospect.

I personally think Tkachuk is a really solid prospect and if they picked him at #4... it wouldn't be a bad pick... although I'd slightly favor picking a dman like McAvoy or Sergachev with that pick instead.

 

[Joey Moss]

Personally I'm not worried about Tkachuk's production playing with very good linemates. He would have one of McDavid, Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins right beside him here anyways.

 

[CornKicker]

im warming up to tkachuk quite a bit, he plays that skilled gritty style that just screams chia

 

[Titsuple]

Just spent a hour watching film on Chychrun and Tkachuk. I really hope we land Chychrun and develop him slowly. I see him easily being a top 3 NHL D man. Not a fan of Tkachuk and if we take a forward I hope we take Dubois or Brown.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Anybody hear the Chiarelli interview today?

http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/

Almost sounded like he's leaning towards moving down. Flames would happily give up a 2nd or so to move up to #4 IMO. You could still likely grab your choice of the d-men at #6 as I think the Flames would move up to take Tkachuk/Dubois and VAN would likely take the other. If VAN took a d-man you'd still have one of Tkachuk/Dubois and 2 of the other dmen to pick from.

 

[boxall9]

Tkachuk

Someone compared Tkachuk to Gagner in one of the threads, the only similarity between Tkachuk and Gagner is that they both played for the Knights, totally different players. If you want to compare Tkachuk to a Knight think Corey Perry, similar players. I have watched Tkachuk play a lot (watching him as we speak, playing hurt) and he could be a very valuable piece for the Oilers, big, scoring winger who other teams absolutely hate, someone goes after him every chance they get. He is not just the beneficiary of Marner and Dvorak, they benefit from him every bit as much as he benefits from them. He creates space and gets everyone's attention when he is on the ice whether they are trying to

 

[Oilerglory]

Well if we are using PIM as anything to go by (obviously doesn't tell the whole story but can be indicative of "truculence" )... then Bellows should be right there in the conversation with Dubois as well...

The Draft Analyst - March , 2016 - "Bellows is a well-built goal scorer with a low center of gravity who can play a punishing, heavy yet cerebral game. He’s a good skater with tremendous balance and moves well laterally. And while he used play center for Edina’s powerhouse high school program, Bellows is most certainly better suited as a shooter from the flank. He’s built like a Mack truck and plays with fire, using tremendous athleticism and work ethic to maintain his compete level, even during extended shifts. He’s extremely difficult to move off the puck, and he’s proven to be a load to handle for some of the NCAA’s bigger defensemen. Bellows is a hard, accurate passer, but can also feather a pass off the rush or lead his teammates with timing and precision."

Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects - 2016 - "Kieffer Bellows is a skilled power forward that can dominate games. Possesses high end puckhandling ability as well as a crisp, accurate release on his shot. Proficient forechecker and loves to win puck battles, which stands out as a consistent part of his game. Strong skater that can bull through the opposition or go around them. Drives the net hard and is a decisive finisher. All-in-all, a competitor that punishes the opposition physically, as well as on the scoreboard."

I couldn't agree more,I think Bellows should be rated higher than Tkachuk.
I would love it if Chiarelli traded back a bit then grabed Kiefer around 12

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Someone compared Tkachuk to Gagner in one of the threads, the only similarity between Tkachuk and Gagner is that they both played for the Knights, totally different players. If you want to compare Tkachuk to a Knight think Corey Perry, similar players. I have watched Tkachuk play a lot (watching him as we speak, playing hurt) and he could be a very valuable piece for the Oilers, big, scoring winger who other teams absolutely hate, someone goes after him every chance they get. He is not just the beneficiary of Marner and Dvorak, they benefit from him every bit as much as he benefits from them. He creates space and gets everyone's attention when he is on the ice whether they are trying to

I think their comparison is more so to the thought that Tkachuk feeds off of Marner like Gagner did Kane.

I'll ignore the fact that they play a different style of game and look at the following.

Size: Tkachuk = 6'1 185lbs Gagner = 5'11" 165-170 at draft.

Start: Gagner was rushed, we all know this. The team won't rush Tkachuk if he's not ready

Situation: Gagner was expected to be the new face of the franchise and the future #1C. Tkachuk will be lucky to be one of the top 5 faces of the franchise. He just has to come in and play.

Marner: Yeah playing with him helps. Playing with McDavid will help more.

 

[Aerchon]

Anybody hear the Chiarelli interview today?

http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/

Almost sounded like he's leaning towards moving down. Flames would happily give up a 2nd or so to move up to #4 IMO. You could still likely grab your choice of the d-men at #6 as I think the Flames would move up to take Tkachuk/Dubois and VAN would likely take the other. If VAN took a d-man you'd still have one of Tkachuk/Dubois and 2 of the other dmen to pick from.

Had to listen and guage how much he is interested in trading down.

I got the impression it is not a priority to trade down. Just an option he will entertain that would be hard to get done if he goes that route.

 

[snipes]

Anybody hear the Chiarelli interview today?

http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/

Almost sounded like he's leaning towards moving down. Flames would happily give up a 2nd or so to move up to #4 IMO. You could still likely grab your choice of the d-men at #6 as I think the Flames would move up to take Tkachuk/Dubois and VAN would likely take the other. If VAN took a d-man you'd still have one of Tkachuk/Dubois and 2 of the other dmen to pick from.

No problem if Chia makes a trade to move back, as long as we get a good return on it that includes a current NHL body coming with it. It'll take a lot though.

Dubois/Tkachuk are Chia type players and perfect for the West thinking long term. We have to conquer the Pacific and start beating the Cali teams on the regular. You need gritty wingers willing to wear down the opposing D to do that.

If we do move back, lots of good players available in the 9-20 range. Jost, Fabbro, McAvoy, Brown, Keller, etc. immediately come to mind.

 

[Spawn]

No problem if Chia makes a trade to move back, as long as we get a good return on it that includes a current NHL body coming with it. It'll take a lot though.

Dubois/Tkachuk are Chia type players and perfect for the West thinking long term. We have to conquer the Pacific and start beating the Cali teams on the regular. You need gritty wingers willing to wear down the opposing D to do that.

If we do move back, lots of good players available in the 9-20 range. Jost, Fabbro, McAvoy, Brown, Keller, etc. immediately come to mind.

There's a risk of going to far with the heavy gritty team to combat the heavy gritty California teams though.

LA and Anahiem didn't make it out of the 1st round, and the top 3 teams from the West were from the Central division. The Ducks and Kings looked slow as all heck in the 1st round. The Oilers shouldn't be trying to beat them at their own game. They should be trying to beat them with speed and a good transition game (something that is impossible without d-men who can move the puck).

Part of me is legitimately afraid that Chiarelli is going to build a big heavy team that lacks speed, skill and creativity only to realize that the meta is swinging back to speed and skill.

 

[nexttothemoon]

No problem if Chia makes a trade to move back, as long as we get a good return on it that includes a current NHL body coming with it. It'll take a lot though.

Dubois/Tkachuk are Chia type players and perfect for the West thinking long term. We have to conquer the Pacific and start beating the Cali teams on the regular. You need gritty wingers willing to wear down the opposing D to do that.

If we do move back, lots of good players available in the 9-20 range. Jost, Fabbro, McAvoy, Brown, Keller, etc. immediately come to mind.

I agree there are plenty of solid prospects available later in the 1st... our personal lists differ somewhat as I would include players like Thompson, Dineen, Kunin, Bastian, Mascherin and Bellows as being solid picks if they were to trade down.

After you get past the two standouts of Matthews/Laine... this draft seems to have a lot of solid prospects that really don't have a lot between them.

 

[puckfan13]

Just spent a hour watching film on Chychrun and Tkachuk. I really hope we land Chychrun and develop him slowly. I see him easily being a top 3 NHL D man. Not a fan of Tkachuk and if we take a forward I hope we take Dubois or Brown.

Spend a few more hours watching both if that is your current opinion on Chychrun and Tkachuk...

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Just based on the last two interviews Chia has had on the subject- I'm thinking the 3 players he really likes are Tkachuk, Brown, and Sergachev, he's been openly vocal about the first two, but the last one he just briefly mentioned and didn't seem to want to linger on it, I think trying to camouflage our actual interest level /w regards to the player. I can already imagine an interview now, where he trades down 3-4 spots drafts Sergachev talks about that's who we wanted anyway at 4 and was lucky enough to get him later on while adding free assets along the way like general mangers who trade down love doing.

 

[oilinblood]

No problem if Chia makes a trade to move back, as long as we get a good return on it that includes a current NHL body coming with it. It'll take a lot though.

Dubois/Tkachuk are Chia type players and perfect for the West thinking long term. We have to conquer the Pacific and start beating the Cali teams on the regular. You need gritty wingers willing to wear down the opposing D to do that.

If we do move back, lots of good players available in the 9-20 range. Jost, Fabbro, McAvoy, Brown, Keller, etc. immediately come to mind.

Chia already said that he expects an NHL player to move DOWN. So he is not trading #4 for #9 and #42 or something stupid. #42 is worthless when you talk of the talent at #4. Its not in the same conversation. Its an NHL player Chia wants to move down. Thats the cost.

The appetite of teams wanting to draft Tkachuk is ever increasing as he proves to be stirring the playoff drink.


Its a premium price to pay to get into the top 5. PERIOD. pay or get away.