Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Cerebral]

It's getting tough to ignore Matthew Tkachuk. He injured his knee tonight, came back out the next shift and ended up scoring 3 goals and adding an assist. He's up to 19 goals and 39 points in 16 games which is just incredible production. For comparison's sake, Gagner put up 7 goals and 29 points in 16 playoff games back in 2006-07.

There is no doubt Tkachuk is playing on a great line but the idea that he's simply leeching off of their talent has got to be slowly disappearing. I still suspect we trade the pick but if not, Tkachuk vs. Dubois will be a very interesting debate. Tkachuk-McDavid would be a pretty dynamite duo.

 

[McWeber]

It's getting tough to ignore Matthew Tkachuk. He injured his knee tonight, came back out the next shift and ended up scoring 3 goals and adding an assist. He's up to 19 goals and 39 points in 16 games which is just incredible production. For comparison's sake, Gagner put up 7 goals and 29 points in 16 playoff games back in 2006-07.

There is no doubt Tkachuk is playing on a great line but the idea that he's simply leeching off of their talent has got to be slowly disappearing. I still suspect we trade the pick but if not, Tkachuk vs. Dubois will be a very interesting debate. Tkachuk-McDavid would be a pretty dynamite duo.

I dunno, if you ask Leaf fans they will tell you Marner has been carrying him

 

[nexttothemoon]

There is no consensus at #4. I'd bet it wouldn't be all that hard to find 5 NHL scouts who all had different prospects at the #4 spot.

If you want the oilers to draft a forward at that spot... that's fine... but obviously someone has to be moved out to get some better D on this team.

Conversely it's true that if they draft a dman at that spot... they likely aren't going to be a significant contributor to the team for 2-3 years minimum BUT I also think that's the best way to get a top pairing D... draft and develop... although obviously the Oilers have had zero luck doing that in their recent (and not so recent) history.

There may not be a franchise dman in this draft (although even that is too much of a presumption imo)... but there certainly could be several top pairing dmen in there.

Chychrun and Sergachev have that potential imo... and I think McAvoy does as well. I'm not as high on Juolevi as some are but certainly if he hits his ceiling... he's got the potential to be a top pairing D as well.

IF they keep the pick... I'd have no problem with them drafting a dman because I think a Tkachuk/Dubois vs a Chychrun/Sergachev pick is a toss up as to the long term value to the Oilers.

That's what's drafting normal (non-generational) prospects is all about... long term value, not instant gratification and both a potential top power forward and a potential top pairing dman are needs on this team but I'd argue having more players in the pipeline that can become top pairing dmen is a bigger priority.

 

[Raab]

Oh they don't have to be rated that high..According to his logic as long as they're picked top 5, they'll be stars.

I guess you wouldn't take that Oliver Edman Larsson guy who was rated lower then MPS and Jacob Josephson by Central Scouting. He was ranked 6th by Mackenzie in his final rankings. I think the myth that taking defenceman high is a gamble is overblown. It should be taking a DEFENSIVE dman high is a gamble. Nearly all the "busts" in the top 10 of the draft featuring dmen have been defensive dmen. Most of the time at worst a top 5 offensive defender becomes a top 4 man, even in the top 10 theres lots of guys you could argue have became top 4 dmen or better.

 

[Raab]

Exactly.

Plus reaching for one in the top 5 when they aren't ranked as amongst the top 5 BPA in the draft is even more risky.

Drafting a Dman at #4 will not fix our defensive woes immediately. We have to move some of our forwards to get NHL Dmen who are ready next season.

We don't need to fix our defensive woes immediately. We can upgrade the blue line with a stop gap of 3 years. And we won't find a defender with higher potential then Sergachev any other way then through the draft. The kid was the best defenceman in the OHL as a rookie for FFS.

 

[Aerchon]

We need another "potential" top pairing left shooting defenseman with a 5 year lead time about as much as we need another one dimensional small skilled forward for our top 6.

Taking the 4th as the best overall pick of a forward is the best choice if we can't trade the pick for immediate help.

 

[Raab]

And I'm sure scouts felt the same way about the guys at the top of the list in 03 and 07, yet both those years the best D man went in the 2nd round. There is a distinct possibility that the best D man from this draft doesn't go in the first round.

Forwards are easier to project. Take the guaranteed stud in Dubois, then try and hit home runs in the later rounds with some RHD.

How about 2008? Three of the best dmen in hockey picked in the top 15. Worth noting Pietrangelo was ranked 6th by central scouting for NA players. Its also arguable that in 2003 Suter at 7 was as valuable as Weber. Crazy to think Nashville scored both these guys in the same draft. The fact is our best chance of finding a top pairing dman is by taking a offensive dman in the top 10 of the draft. Theres a far higher percentage of top pairing guys that have been taken in the top 10-15 then there are from all the other rounds put together.

 

[Raab]

We need another "potential" top pairing left shooting defenseman with a 5 year lead time about as much as we need another one dimensional small skilled forward for our top 6.

Taking the 4th as the best overall pick of a forward is the best choice if we can't trade the pick for immediate help.

Id like to know what potential top pairing LHD we've had in the system. And please don't say Nurse who clearly wasn't/isn't going to be a offensive top pairing dman.

 

[Arpeggio]

Not sure it's a given that any defenceman taken is five years away from contributing. And even if it was, we were saying the same thing five years ago.

 

[Raab]

Not sure it's a given that any defenceman taken is five years away from contributing. And even if it was, we were saying the same thing five years ago.

Exactly, I think the 3 big guys will all be making contributions within the next 2-3 years. Its just a matter of how big on contribution they will make. For me I see Sergachev as having at minimum a Shattenkirk like contribution in 2 years. Is that worth taking a shot on when he'll be protected from expansion and on a ELC when Mcdavids contract is up?

 

[Aerchon]

Id like to know what potential top pairing LHD we've had in the system. And please don't say Nurse who clearly wasn't/isn't going to be a offensive top pairing dman.

Nurse, Reihart, Davidson, and Klefbom all still have that "potential" to a greater or lesser degree.

Defensemen are practically vodoo in terms of how they develop.

 

[McWeber]

How about 2008? Three of the best dmen in hockey picked in the top 15. Worth noting Pietrangelo was ranked 6th by central scouting for NA players. Its also arguable that in 2003 Suter at 7 was as valuable as Weber. Crazy to think Nashville scored both these guys in the same draft. The fact is our best chance of finding a top pairing dman is by taking a offensive dman in the top 10 of the draft. Theres a far higher percentage of top pairing guys that have been taken in the top 10-15 then there are from all the other rounds put together.

Id like to know what potential top pairing LHD we've had in the system. And please don't say Nurse who clearly wasn't/isn't going to be a offensive top pairing dman.

Where were Bogosian and Luke Schenn ranked? It is pretty easy to point to one of if not the best draft in history to point out good D taken early. I can just as easily point to the 2012 draft where the first 2 D taken have been very lackluster and two of the best were selected in the 3rd rd (Ghostbear and Parayko). Nurse probably won't be an offensive top pairing D but I still think he could easily be top pairing, Klefbom was playing like a top pairing guy before his staph infection this year. You may be right that our best chance at getting a top pairing guy is at the top of the draft but reaching for a D is also an easy way to waste a pick. Sergachyev is a great prospect but I would prefer the safe pick instead of adding yet another LHD to the cupboard.

 

[Raab]

Nurse, Reihart, Davidson, and Klefbom all still have that "potential" to a greater or lesser degree.

Defensemen are practically vodoo in terms of how they develop.

Defensemen are not voodoo, they just seem that way because Kevin Lowe and Craig Mactavish always picked the same type of dman. Two way dmen and defensive dmen are very hard to project because you don't know how much of their offence will translate. I'll admit that I am high on Reinhart and still think he has more to show, but theres no guarantee that happens and that he's able to produce points. He has a good pass and heavy shot but that doesn't mean nothing if he doesn't have the instincts to be able to use those assets to his ability. We have never had a high end offensive men in the system like Sergachev under Lowe. And I don't think its any coincidence that we've never been able to develop our own top pairing dman as a result.

 

[Raab]

Where were Bogosian and Luke Schenn ranked? It is pretty easy to point to one of if not the best draft in history to point out good D taken early. I can just as easily point to the 2012 draft where the first 2 D taken have been very lackluster and two of the best were selected in the 3rd rd (Ghostbear and Parayko). Nurse probably won't be an offensive top pairing D but I still think he could easily be top pairing, Klefbom was playing like a top pairing guy before his staph infection this year. You may be right that our best chance at getting a top pairing guy is at the top of the draft but reaching for a D is also an easy way to waste a pick. Sergachyev is a great prospect but I would prefer the safe pick instead of adding yet another LHD to the cupboard.

Bogosian and Schenn were ranked 4th and 3rd respectfully, Myers was 5th. Bogosian was an offensive dman at the time. Schenn clearly was not, nor was Myers. I would not have went close to Schenn or Myers in the top ten of the draft because of their lack of offence. Bogosian I may have took and seen what happened. Bogosian IMO still would be the Oilers top RHD and at the very least he's a serviceable #4. Bogosian IMO reminds me a bit of Chychrun.

 

[Fourier]

It's getting tough to ignore Matthew Tkachuk. He injured his knee tonight, came back out the next shift and ended up scoring 3 goals and adding an assist. He's up to 19 goals and 39 points in 16 games which is just incredible production. For comparison's sake, Gagner put up 7 goals and 29 points in 16 playoff games back in 2006-07.

There is no doubt Tkachuk is playing on a great line but the idea that he's simply leeching off of their talent has got to be slowly disappearing. I still suspect we trade the pick but if not, Tkachuk vs. Dubois will be a very interesting debate. Tkachuk-McDavid would be a pretty dynamite duo.

I listened to most of the game on the radio but it sure sounded like he was driving a lot of the play. He also played extremely well in the games I saw against both Kitchener and A couple against Erie. If anything he is really helping to increase the value of that #4 pick.

 

[iCanada]

I dunno, if you ask Leaf fans they will tell you Marner has been carrying him

I'd argue that as well, to be honest.

He scored less than Marner by 40%, and less than Dvorak by 25%.

I don't think he is stirring the drink. He is pretty much the Kostitsyn to Sam Gagner and Patrick Kane. He has intangibles sure, but i think of his linemates he is the worst player, and that is concerning.

Makes his stats kind of meaningless.

 

[Fourier]

There is no consensus at #4. I'd bet it wouldn't be all that hard to find 5 NHL scouts who all had different prospects at the #4 spot.

If you want the oilers to draft a forward at that spot... that's fine... but obviously someone has to be moved out to get some better D on this team.

Conversely it's true that if they draft a dman at that spot... they likely aren't going to be a significant contributor to the team for 2-3 years minimum BUT I also think that's the best way to get a top pairing D... draft and develop... although obviously the Oilers have had zero luck doing that in their recent (and not so recent) history.

There may not be a franchise dman in this draft (although even that is too much of a presumption imo)... but there certainly could be several top pairing dmen in there.

Chychrun and Sergachev have that potential imo... and I think McAvoy does as well. I'm not as high on Juolevi as some are but certainly if he hits his ceiling... he's got the potential to be a top pairing D as well.

IF they keep the pick... I'd have no problem with them drafting a dman because I think a Tkachuk/Dubois vs a Chychrun/Sergachev pick is a toss up as to the long term value to the Oilers.

That's what's drafting normal (non-generational) prospects is all about... long term value, not instant gratification and both a potential top power forward and a potential top pairing dman are needs on this team but I'd argue having more players in the pipeline that can become top pairing dmen is a bigger priority.

I would be quite surprised to see many scouts suggesting that any of the defensemen would be ahead of Tkachuk/Dubois. For example, there is almost no argument I can see for putting Juolevi on par with Tkachuk from the games I have seen with London this year and especially in the playoffs. Now of the OHL dmen my preference is for Sergachev. But it is clear that the three are close. So how a team ranks any of them above Tkachuk would be a mystery to me.

 

[Fourier]

I'd argue that as well, to be honest.

He scored less than Marner by 40%, and less than Dvorak by 25%.

I don't think he is stirring the drink. He is pretty much the Kostitsyn to Sam Gagner and Evander Kane. He has intangibles sure, but i think of his linemates he is the worst player, and that is concerning.

Makes his stats kind of meaningless.

How much have you seen him play down the stretch and in the playoffs??? This was far more true early on in the year than it has been of late.

 

[iCanada]

How much have you seen him play down the stretch and in the playoffs??? This was far more true early on in the year than it has been of late.

To be honest, I only watched him play a couple games on CHL live around the February mark, so I could be out to lunch. When I saw him play though he was pretty much a passenger until the whistles. Not that that is a bad thing when you are playing with a guy like Marner, just I think being the driver that can utilize his teammates (Dubois) is much more impressive.

I find his stats suspect. I feel strongly that there is an NHL player there, just not completely sure if its one you feel happy about having picked @ 4th.

I also like Dubois size and speed a little more, and I am not convinced that there is a difference intangibly between the two. I also think Dubois has a better shot. Admittedly my sample size for Dubois is much more current and much larger.

 

[Fourier]

To be honest, I only watched him play a couple games on CHL live around the February mark, so I could be out to lunch. When I saw him play though he was pretty much a passenger until the whistles. Not that that is a bad thing when you are playing with a guy like Marner, just I think being the driver that can utilize his teammates (Dubois) is much more impressive.

I find his stats suspect. I feel strongly that there is an NHL player there, just not completely sure if its one you feel happy about having picked @ 4th.

I also like Dubois size and speed a little more, and I am not convinced that there is a difference intangibly between the two. I also think Dubois has a better shot. Admittedly my sample size for Dubois is much more current and much larger.

I have seen far less of Dubois than I have of Tkachuk. And possibly without justification my gut says Dubois should be the choice so I am not going to try and convince you that Tkachuk is better. But certainly in the playoffs Tkachuk has been no passenger. His stats are inflated by playing on a great line but if that was not true his numbers would have him in conversation for #1 or #2.

He is only 2 points behind Marner and has already exceeded Hall's playoff numbers from his draft year. The OHL record is 51 points and both players who hold the record, Papineau and Dawes played 21 games. So with 39 in 16 we are talking about one of the most productive playoffs in league history. And that is despite the fact that he had a slow start with no points in his first two games.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I actually feel Tkachuk is being slightly underrated at this point because through no fault of his own he plays on a good team/line.

Let's not forget he's the youngest player on that line so he SHOULD be performing at a lesser pace than the older, more experienced players.

Look at his results in his draft -1 season... he was putting up close to 1.5 ppg on the U.S. National U18 Team. That's not chopped liver... the only guy that was better was Matthews with 1.93 ppg (who imo IS likely a generational player).

Eichel put up 1.64 ppg in his draft -1 season on the U.S. National U18 Team and he was considered generational by many/most.

I think Tkachuk is being viewed as somewhat of a complimentary player... but the type of game he plays is not a perimeter style... it's aggressive and certainly contributes to the success of the line with that abrasiveness.

I'm not saying he's THE clear choice at #4... I just don't think he should be downgraded because he plays on a good team/line as he's one of the reasons the line/team IS good... respect him for the solid last two seasons he's had rather than downgrade his own success because of those that play with him.

 

[iFan]

I'd argue that as well, to be honest.

He scored less than Marner by 40%, and less than Dvorak by 25%.

I don't think he is stirring the drink. He is pretty much the Kostitsyn to Sam Gagner and Patrick Kane. He has intangibles sure, but i think of his linemates he is the worst player, and that is concerning.

Makes his stats kind of meaningless.

Even if Tkachuk is a product of being with good players, he was great for team USA too, he'd be with McDavid so I don't think that would be a problem for the Oilers. Personally I'm hoping Dubios goes 4th, I like Tkachuk a wee bit better and his playoffs production is just on another level.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I listened to most of the game on the radio but it sure sounded like he was driving a lot of the play. He also played extremely well in the games I saw against both Kitchener and A couple against Erie. If anything he is really helping to increase the value of that #4 pick.

St Louis would be an interesting destination for Tkachuk.

Tkachuk and Yakupov for Parayko (shatty) berglund a b prospecy and.1st.

Parayko is a pipe dream but I think the cost on shatty should have come down. Maybe the Oilers add a contitional pick if they sign him.

 

[Raab]

I'd take Tkachuk if we're going with a forward at the 4 spot. Was very impressed by him at the WJC, and what he's doing in the playoffs is only solidifying his spot. For me it's either Sergachev or Tkachuk. I still lean towards the dman though as I don't think either of Dubois or Tkachuk will be top line studs like Hall or Benn.

 

[McWeber]

St Louis would be an interesting destination for Tkachuk.

Tkachuk and Yakupov for Parayko (shatty) berglund and.1st.

Parayko is a pipe dream but I think the cost on shatty should have come down. Maybe the Oilers add a contitional pick if they sign him.

I would love to get Parayko, but I think we would have to add RNH (instead of Yak or along with) for them to even listen. He is a stud and a pretty close at being a #1 RHD. Probably the 2nd or 3rd most untouchable piece on their team.