Speculation: Draft Thread 2018-19: Part X (No Kakko/Hughes Talk) - Post Your Mock Draft

[Edge]

a topic can be discussed and debated without a hill or anyone dying

I think one of the shifts we continue to see if the pooling of talent in the first round. Drafts still have some spread, but it's not like it used to be.

Even the second round doesn't quite have the same. Some of that is the settling of what used to be the scouting frontier (eastern Europe, the lower leagues in North America), and some of it systematic changes to how leagues are structured and how teams scout them. But teams used to figure that they had a reasonable chance to find a higher value player in those 4th through 6th rounds. Nowadays it's typically seen as more of a bonus.

 

[Leetch3]

I didn't even realize that keane was an overager...didn't realize he was 2 months older than chytil

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I didn't even realize that keane was an overager...didn't realize he was 2 months older than chytil

Calling Pajuniemi an overager is a bit much for me as well. He is 4 days older than Brady Tkachuk

 

[Leetch3]

So they drafted some 19 or 20 year olds who have developed already instead of 18 year olds who are a gamble as well. So what?! I honestly do not see the problem here. It's not as if other teams who solely draft 18 year old kids in the later rounds have amazing success.

I think it needs to be viewed on a case by case basis...first question I'd ask is why wasn't the kid draft the prior year? if he wasn't drafted due to injury than that's obviously completely different then he wasn't any good.

then i'd probably look at the league he's playing in...a 19-20 year old developing late playing against men in europe is impressive no matter what he did as an 18 year old. but a 19-20 year old kid that suddenly becomes good playing against kids in juniors, not sure that i'm as impressed.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think it needs to be viewed on a case by case basis...first question I'd ask is why wasn't the kid draft the prior year? if he wasn't drafted due to injury than that's obviously completely different then he wasn't any good.

then i'd probably look at the league he's playing in...a 19-20 year old developing late playing against men in europe is impressive no matter what he did as an 18 year old. but a 19-20 year old kid that suddenly becomes good playing against kids in juniors, not sure that i'm as impressed.

Brett Leason... I'd stay away from him

 

[Edge]

I think it needs to be viewed on a case by case basis...first question I'd ask is why wasn't the kid draft the prior year? if he wasn't drafted due to injury than that's obviously completely different then he wasn't any good.

then i'd probably look at the league he's playing in...a 19-20 year old developing late playing against men in europe is impressive no matter what he did as an 18 year old. but a 19-20 year old kid that suddenly becomes good playing against kids in juniors, not sure that i'm as impressed.

I think in some cases, you also see where a team feels a player is good enough to turn to pro. They've essentially had their D+1 season and the team feels a contract is a likely outcome. Then the focus becomes on seeing if you can turn "pro" to "NHL" in the equation.

But the Rangers, historically, have been one of the better teams at finding guys late, or who were passed over altogether.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I totally expect one of the 13 picks in the 7th round of 2020 to be a first ballot HHOFer.

 

[Leetch3]

another thing to when looking at our recent drafts is that we've had a LOT of picks. that gives you the luxury of taking the gamble on these guys in the mid to late rounds that we wouldn't have been afforded in the years that our first pick was in the 3rd round

 

[Bluenote13]

Dalyn Flatt was one of the worst overagers we drafted, in round 3 no less !

31 players drafted after him, only 7 failed to play an NHL game.

 

[CommaSynapse]

I totally expect one of the 13 picks in the 7th round of 2020 to be a first ballot HHOFer.

The Leafs are in on our strategy. They have three 7ths and one more conditional from Edmonton.

 

[Edge]

Brett Leason... I'd stay away from him

I think Leason is a good prospect if you go in with the right expectations.

If you're looking for him to take it to the next level and become a 25 goal/50+ player, that's probably going to be a bit much.

If you're looking for a kid who has a shot to come in fairly quickly, and become a 15-20 goal, 30-40 point support player, I think you're probably going in with a reasonable expectation.

A team that's looking at him is essentially trading higher upside (and longer wait times) for a more modest, but immediate impact.

I think that's why he could be appealing to a team in the late first who is already a contender, and has several more expensive contracts, but is hoping to get a young, cost effective roster player. So that's probably not the Rangers. But if you're St. Louis? Sure.

 

[Ola]

Your argument seems to be the exact reason why Rees isn’t that high: it’s really hard to find those 5-6 guys, so if you think a kid has a decent chance at becoming one of those, is that not more valuable than the guy you know has a better chance of becoming a bottom 6 forward?

Yeah, I understand, but I actually think it’s way more likely that a guy like Rees can become a very good forward than it is that many many other players ranked ahead of him will become that good. JMHO.

 

[Edge]

Yeah, I understand, but I actually think it’s way more likely that a guy like Rees can become a very good forward than it is that many many other players ranked ahead of him will become that good. JMHO.

And he understandably could. It’ll be interesting to see how certain teams value perceived upside, or how/where they value certain “big” swings.

A guy like Rees is someone who could go in the first or be there as the second round is drawing to a close.

 

[Joey Bones]

FWIW....

Spelling (5th)-Good gamble at the time, but went back to Denmark after a fail in the SHL.
Skapski (6th)-Actually played well and made it to the NHL. Unfortunate injuries derailed career.
Nejezchleb (5th)-Showed lots of good two-way ability after being one of the last cuts in training camp. Injuries derailed career.
Wolcott (5th)-Junior speedster that played well and couldn't translate to pro hockey. Looking like injuries will derail career.
Bernhardt (4th)-Showed great progress in the OHL until injuries, ultimately, forced him to retire early.
Fontaine (6th)-Still could become a defensively smart grind/depth center for an NHL bottom-6.
Lakatos (6th)-Never progressed after NYR selected him. Bust.
Crawley (4th)-Depending on the system, he could still become a bottom pair/depth defender in the NHL.
Virta (7th)-Worthy of trying out in North America and could be a good middle-6 player like Fast. Rangers don't have his rights anymore and is a UFA.
Keane (3rd)-Showing the most progress out of any of these players. Has the opportunity to prove himself in Hartford in the fall.
Pajuniemi (5th)-Good tools, needs to be more consistent.

 

[tradenashnow]

Fontaine should be a 4th liner on this team next year. He's a winner. He has always raised him game in the playoffs. Quinn never gave him a chance last year and it was B.S. Nieves stinks compared to him. I would think with Fontaine's ability to win draws on a high level, kill penalties and play with an edge would be a perfect fit for Quinn. Nieves is 25 and has done nothing to show he belongs in the NHL. That was one of only a few things I didn't like that Quinn did last year. Playing Smith on the 4th line was moronic as well.

 

[Fitzy]

Dale Weise was another significant overager. I think Hagelin was right on the edge of being an overager, not sure if he was or wasn't. He was August 23 1988 while Turris was August 14th 1989.

 

[BroadwayStorm]

Callahan was the ultimate overager.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Successful Rangers overagers:
Dominic Moore (20)

Marek Zidlicky (24)
Petr Prucha (20)
Ryan Callahan (19)
Carl Hagelin (19)
Dale Weise (20)
Mikhail Pashnin (20)

Zidlicky didn't play for us but he carved out a nice NHL career for himself. That was a good pick

Pashnin never came over but he had a pretty decent career in the KHL.

But why mention these when you can cherry pick and complain about something that isn't an issue at all?!

 

[SA16]

Successful Rangers overagers:
Dominic Moore (20)

Marek Zidlicky (24)
Petr Prucha (20)
Ryan Callahan (19)
Carl Hagelin (19)
Dale Weise (20)
Mikhail Pashnin (20)

Zidlicky didn't play for us but he carved out a nice NHL career for himself. That was a good pick

Pashnin never came over but he had a pretty decent career in the KHL.

But why mention these when you can cherry pick and complain about something that isn't an issue at all?!

I guess the rules were different then but why was Zidlicky eligible for the draft at age 24?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I guess the rules were different then but why was Zidlicky eligible for the draft at age 24?

Different CBA. Montreal drafted Mark Streit when he was 26. Minnesota drafted Tony Virta (Yes, Patrik's father) when he was 29.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

I was going to rip on how few low draft picks make it to the NHL by just picking on a poor random fifth round, but I didn't know the 2010 fifth round was amazing!

Zach Hyman, John Klingberg, Micheal Ferland, Louie Domingue, Petr Mrazek, Brendan Gallagher

 

[eco's bones]

I think Leason is a good prospect if you go in with the right expectations.

If you're looking for him to take it to the next level and become a 25 goal/50+ player, that's probably going to be a bit much.

If you're looking for a kid who has a shot to come in fairly quickly, and become a 15-20 goal, 30-40 point support player, I think you're probably going in with a reasonable expectation.

A team that's looking at him is essentially trading higher upside (and longer wait times) for a more modest, but immediate impact.

I think that's why he could be appealing to a team in the late first who is already a contender, and has several more expensive contracts, but is hoping to get a young, cost effective roster player. So that's probably not the Rangers. But if you're St. Louis? Sure.

I would not be drafting Leason in the 1st round--late 2nd maybe though--depending on what's there.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

FWIW....

Spelling (5th)-Good gamble at the time, but went back to Denmark after a fail in the SHL.
Skapski (6th)-Actually played well and made it to the NHL. Unfortunate injuries derailed career.
Nejezchleb (5th)-Showed lots of good two-way ability after being one of the last cuts in training camp. Injuries derailed career.
Wolcott (5th)-Junior speedster that played well and couldn't translate to pro hockey. Looking like injuries will derail career.
Bernhardt (4th)-Showed great progress in the OHL until injuries, ultimately, forced him to retire early.
Fontaine (6th)-Still could become a defensively smart grind/depth center for an NHL bottom-6.
Lakatos (6th)-Never progressed after NYR selected him. Bust.
Crawley (4th)-Depending on the system, he could still become a bottom pair/depth defender in the NHL.
Virta (7th)-Worthy of trying out in North America and could be a good middle-6 player like Fast. Rangers don't have his rights anymore and is a UFA.
Keane (3rd)-Showing the most progress out of any of these players. Has the opportunity to prove himself in Hartford in the fall.
Pajuniemi (5th)-Good tools, needs to be more consistent.

Personally, I feel like it is better to not to take an overager. If you take a gamble take a gable on someone that has more time to develop and has more chance to become a pleasant surprise. Taking overagers is trying to take a shortcut to get somebody into NHL faster. I think we did ok with some of these, they were/are close, but likely no cigar. Our scouts do seem to love drafting overagers though.

 

[Leetch3]

some nice examples of 'overagers' that worked out well...some of the examples really show how dumb it is to make a blanket statement about all the kids not picked the first year. look at a guy like Hagelin, he was eligible in 2006 but he was still 17 at the time of the draft and almost a full year younger than some of the draft class. a guy who is drafted in his 2nd year of eligibility but is still 18 when drafted shouldn't be lumped in with a guy that is drafted at 19 going on 20.

 

[Joey Bones]

Personally, I feel like it is better to not to take an overager. If you take a gamble take a gable on someone that has more time to develop and has more chance to become a pleasant surprise. Taking overagers is trying to take a shortcut to get somebody into NHL faster. I think we did ok with some of these, they were/are close, but likely no cigar. Our scouts do seem to love drafting overagers though.

I see what you're saying, but it could honestly be both sides of the coin toss. An overager seems to be the "lazy way" out, but that's how some diamonds in the rough are found. Same can be said for that 1st year eligible. It really is just luck.

With that said, though, the way Morgan Barron has turned out as a late pick turning heads, maybe NYR should draft out of different NCAA feeder leagues late in the draft rather than taking an overager. Gives them a few years to decide on their development depending on reserve rosters.