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Speculation: Draft Thread 2018-19: Part X (No Kakko/Hughes Talk) - Post Your Mock Draft

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Joey Bones said:
I see what you're saying, but it could honestly be both sides of the coin toss. An overager seems to be the "lazy way" out, but that's how some diamonds in the rough are found. Same can be said for that 1st year eligible. It really is just luck.

With that said, though, the way Morgan Barron has turned out as a late pick turning heads, maybe NYR should draft out of different NCAA feeder leagues late in the draft rather than taking an overager. Gives them a few years to decide on their development depending on reserve rosters.
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yes definitely in later rounds go with some players from lesser scouted areas. Riley Hughes was maybe even better pick than Barron.
 
A bit bored today, so wanted to try to figure out what the chance is to get value in the different rounds. With all the different CBA's and some players long time to get to the show, its hard to get any actual info. I set the cut off for "value" at 200 games played in NHL (a player with 200 GP and not on a toxic contract should net a late pick if traded). For the years I went with 2003 to 2012. Would have liked to use even more recent years, but for some late round picks even the 2012 draft is to early. The 2003 draft screws the data for the first 2 rounds a bit, but 2003 is more remarkable in its quality all over the draft. Every team have picked some value in the later rounds, so it feels a bit random what to look for. The data do not difference from a superstar like Jamie Benn to a random plug with just 200 GP.
Round 1 is just added for the fun. Getting a 200GP player there should be considered a plug. Might be interesting to also see total GP per round per year, and also total points for skaters per round per year.

YEAR2003200420052006200720082009201020112012Average% for a value pick
ROUND
R1 2720182019182022202220.668.66
R2 139894911121279.431.33
R3 610655563465.618.66
R4 36726572344.515
R5 44502446143.411.33
R6 44144613223.110.33
R7 23523221202.27.33
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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I did two mocks. The reasons for doing a second was not being sure whether Chicago takes Byram or Turcotte--also trying to gauge where Podkolzin and Knight might land. Also I wanted to give different options that teams might choose. There are three exceptions to the rule of two different options--New Jersey takes Hughes first--the Rangers Kakko second and the Caps Dorofeyev 25th. I think if he is there and there's a very good chance he will be their guy.

NJD 1. Hughes-C
RAN 2. Kakko-RW
CHI 3. Byram-LD
COL 4. Turcotte-C
LAK 5. Cozens-C
DET 6. Podkolzin-RW
BUF 7. Zegras-C
EDM 8. Boldy-LW
ANA 9. Dach-C
VAN 10. Newhook-C
PHL 11. Krebs-C/LW
MIN 12. Caufield-RW
FLA 13. Knight-G
ARI 14. Broberg-LDC
MTL 15. Lavoie-RW
COL 16. Brink-RW
VEG 17. Seider-RD
DAL 18. Tomasino-C
OTT 19. Soderstrom-RD
RAN 20. York-LD
PIT 21. Kaliyev-RW
LAK 22. Harley-LD
ISL 23. Suzuki-C
NAS 24. McMichael-C
WAS 25. Dorofeyev-LW/RW
CAL 26. Heinola-LD
TAM 27. Pelletier-LW
CAR 28. Beecher-C
ANA 29. M. Robertson-LD
BOS 30. Poulin-LW
BUF 31. Hoglander-LW

2nd mock
NJD 1. Hughes-C
RAN 2. Kakko-RW
CHI 3. Turcotte-C
COL 4. Cozens-C
LAK 5. Byram-LD
DET 6. Dach-C
BUF 7. Caufield-RW
EDM 8. Krebs-C/LW
ANA 9. Zegras-C
VAN 10. Broberg-LD
PHL 11. Podkolzin-RW
MIN 12. Boldy-LW
FLA 13. Newhook-C
ARI 14. Seider-RD
MTL 15. Kaliyev-RW
COL 16. Tomasino-C
VEG 17. Knight-G
DAL 18. Lavoie-RW
OTT 19. York-LD
RAN 20. Brink-RW
PIT 21. Soderstrom-RD
LAK 22. Suzuki-C
ISL 23. Harley-LD
NAS 24. Poulin-LW
WAS 25. Dorofeyev-RW/LW
CAL 26. Leason-RW
TAM 27. Heinola-LD
CAR 28. McMichael-C
ANA 29. Johnson-LD
BOS 30. Pelletier-LW
BUF 31. Fagemo-RW

As for the Rangers 20th pick I wanted both a defense and a forward option.
 
In the process of compiling my own top 31 and started digging into Ryan Johnson...

Why isn't this guy getting more love? What I've seen has been mostly terrific.
 
ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
In the process of compiling my own top 31 and started digging into Ryan Johnson...

Why isn't this guy getting more love? What I've seen has been mostly terrific.
Click to expand...
Stat line doesn't wow you, and not many watch the USHL. I posted earlier in the week, but his playoff run, as well as Max Crozier's, were two huge components for why Sioux Falls ran train on their way to a Clark Cup.
 
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ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
In the process of compiling my own top 31 and started digging into Ryan Johnson...

Why isn't this guy getting more love? What I've seen has been mostly terrific.
Click to expand...

I think I posted on this a few days ago, and then I lost a signal and it went into oblivion.

So Johnson isn’t terribly different from where Skjei was 7 years ago. He’s a mobile defenseman who doesn’t quite have a standout attribute that leaps off the page.

He’s very agile, his ability to turn, pivot, maneuver rates high. He could stand to keep to keep the feet moving on straight ahead plays, but the point is that he can cover a lot of ground.

He’s not necessarily the guy you want making the offensive decisions with the puck on his stick, but his ability to get to the puck and get it to the guy you want making those decisions is what makes him appealing. With Johnson, it’s all about what where you think he’ll be in five years as he matures.

What you’re looking for in Johnson is a guy who supports the play. He’s not the guy who finishes the play, or even the guy who sets up the play, but he’s the guy who gets the puck and allows those players to do what they do best. He represents the team concept of icing a group of players who know their role and play a part.

I know the Rangers are keenly interested in him and interviewed him at the combine. He’s right in the wheelhouse of guys they’re considering to support the higher end talent they’re trying to accumulate.
 
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WeNeverGetaGoodCoach said:
yes definitely in later rounds go with some players from lesser scouted areas. Riley Hughes was maybe even better pick than Barron.
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Maybe, but Hughes hasn't played in the NCAA yet. Barron has and is killing it this season. Will also be a true junior in the fall. I'd give the edge to Barron, ATM.
 
SnowFort said:


That’s tough :(
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Edge said:
I think I posted on this a few days ago, and then I lost a signal and it went into oblivion.

So Johnson isn’t terribly different from where Skjei was 7 years ago. He’s a mobile defenseman who doesn’t quite have a standout attribute that leaps off the page.

He’s very agile, his ability to turn, pivot, maneuver rates high. He could stand to keep to keep the feet moving on straight ahead plays, but the point is that he can cover a lot of ground.

He’s not necessarily the guy you want making the offensive decisions with the puck on his stick, but his ability to get to the puck and get it to the guy you want making those decisions is what makes him appealing. With Johnson, it’s all about what where you think he’ll be in five years as he matures.

What you’re looking for in Johnson is a guy who supports the play. He’s not the guy who finishes the play, or even the guy who sets up the play, but he’s the guy who gets the puck and allows those players to do what they do best. He represents the team concept of icing a group of players who know their role and play a part.

I know the Rangers are keenly interested in him and interviewed him at the combine. He’s right in the wheelhouse of guys they’re considering to support the higher end talent they’re trying to accumulate.
Click to expand...

In terms of skating and not being a pure offensive D, I agree. I'd like to see him be a little bit more aggressive in the offensive zone - Maybe that will come with age but even if it doesn't, there is still a quality NHL player there.

Johnson's ability to completely kill rushes against in the NZ is fantastic though, which is so rare for a kid his age who isn't really long and rangy. I value this aspect of playing the position very highly since its more indicative of good defense to me rather than blocking a shot during a shift where you failed to get the puck out 3 times (AKA the Marc Staal.)

Easy 1st round grade for me. Depending on who is still available, I'd be thrilled to come away with him at 20.
 
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ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
In terms of skating and not being a pure offensive D, I agree. I'd like to see him be a little bit more aggressive in the offensive zone - Maybe that will come with age but even if it doesn't, there is still a quality NHL player there.

Johnson's ability to completely kill rushes against in the NZ is fantastic though, which is so rare for a kid his age who isn't really long and rangy. I value this aspect of playing the position very highly since its more indicative of good defense to me rather than blocking a shot during a shift where you failed to get the puck out 3 times (AKA the Marc Staal.)

Easy 1st round grade for me. Depending on who is still available, I'd be thrilled to come away with him at 20.
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I probably wouldn’t take him at 20, based on the upside of guys I expect to be on the board. But I can’t rule out the Rangers wouldn’t take him.

I think the challenge for the casual fan looking at Johnson is the fact that he’s the epitome of the type of player teams hope to have, but not one that inherently generates a lot of attention.
 
SnowFort said:


That’s tough :(
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wow thats rough. and early next season seems optimistic. isn't that normally a year long recovery?

of course from our standpoint, this injury could very easily drop him in the rankings...
 
Leetch3 said:
wow thats rough. and early next season seems optimistic. isn't that normally a year long recovery?

of course from our standpoint, this injury could very easily drop him in the rankings...
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If everything goes well he can be back by November. Its obviously not optimal, but the recovery rate for this kind of injury is much better than it used to be.

If this drops him to the mid teens I trade up to take him.
 
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ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
If everything goes well he can be back by November. Its obviously not optimal, but the recovery rate for this kind of injury is much better than it used to be.

If this drops him to the mid teens I trade up to take him.
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yeah I don't think it drops him all the way to 20 but maybe drops him a handful of spots that puts him in the range for a potential trade up
 
Edge said:
Won’t have an impact on his draft slot, but still a crappy break.
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I think it definitely could see him drop a few extra slots unless a team is very high on him and looks past it. That's a pretty significant injury for a guy who relies on skating. Pronman says he could be back for the start of the season, but at the same time that injury could keep him out till the Winter.
 
A serious leg injury at this stage could push the development back 1 maybe 2 years depending on severity and could push him down a tier or 2 in your player rankings.

There is still a couple weeks until the draft so more details will likely paint a clearer picture prior to the draft.
 
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