Below is my ranking for the draft. It's not a mock as to where I think a player will go, but rather my thoughts on the draft based on what I've seen, and heard. In summation I think this is a very strong draft year. Lots of good top 6, top 4 upside players, and a bunch of good role players are to be had. In other words, this draft is going to produce more NHL players than say a 2012, or a 2014 might. But it will lack the high end depth of a 2015 draft.
1. Jack Hughes: Game breaker-> maybe 2 years away from being a point per game player, but I think he's a guy that will create chances shift after shift. First 2 years are going to be a little rough as he needs to fill out. I can see a couple of guys ragdolling him around.
2. Kaapo Kakko: 35-35 man for a long time to come. Size, speed, skill. Guys got it all. He's going to be an impact player, and be a Hossa like force for a long time. IMO the player comparable to Rantanen is very accurate in terms of play style.
3. Bowen Byram: Real deal Number 1 Defenseman. I see him on Canadian best on best teams in his early 20s. Kids a gamer. Prototypical D. Plays like Giordano and Gary Suter.
4. Alex Turcotte: High floor, high ceiling player. IMO a lock for a top 6 center player. Very smart with the puck. Low center of gravity and good wheels... not elite... but very good wheels will translate well. I see him as a Max Domi type of player.
5. Dylan Cozens: I like this kid a ton. Character, size, speed, and goal scoring all rolled into one. He's got good Western Canadian farmboy written all over him. He's a Jeff Carter on the ice, and but a Boone Jenner off the ice.
6. Kirby Dach: If Correy Perry played center. Lots to like about this player, and in terms of entertainment value, he's going to dazzle. My only concern with him is that he's going to have a shorter peak. I don't think he's going to age well after 28. The legs aren't elite, but you will get a hell of a player for a shorter prime. If the wheels were better, he'd be higher.
7. Cole Caufield: Scorer. I've been a fan for a while, just can score every which way. IMO he's a Debrincat, Atkinson type of player. I see a 40 goal season from him if you put him out there is a good playmaking center that can create time and space, and a couple of good puck movers on the back end.
8. Mathew Boldy: I'm surprised he isn't more popular on these boards. Chris Kreider clone. Big body, top end wheels, and a pro mix of size and speed. He's a safe pick to be a top size winger whose going to play a Kreider/Saad type of game... if he's more consistent than those two, then you have a matchup nightmare every game.
9. Trevor Zegras: He's a couple of years away. IMO he needs to take his time and not rush it, because a more physically mature player is going to be a better player in the pros. Oozes hockey IQ, super smart kid, and a deft passer. He's one of these players that can rack up 60 in a middle six roles in 4 years. Game reminds me of Derrick Brassard in his prime. He also takes a lot of dumb penalties. A good program is what he needs.
10. Phillip Broberg: Swedish Ryan McDonagh if he shores up his defense. There is some offense there, but he's another guy that has the athleticism and size to be a long term NHLer. I would say you have to wait 3 years for him to make a significant impact. Top 4 by 2023.
11. Cameron York: He can and may slide.... but there is a lot to like about his game. He's been very well coached, and plays a game similar to Shea Theodore. He's going to be a very effective NHL player... but another guy whose 4 years away from that. Guys like Broberg and York might slide due to their time horizon to the NHL. Which is perfect for a team like the Rangers because other teams might have a greater sense of urgency on getting NHL minutes out of their pick. NHL comparison is Keith Yandle.
12. Vasili Podkolzin: Lots to like about the kids motor and character. But he's only been great against his peer group. Which for a Russian kid isn't a bad thing, but for a guy that is touted on having high end skill... where's the offense? I think scouts fall in love with him due to the intangibles, he's a Russian kid that plays like a hungry farm boy from Saskatoon. But I don't see the offense. I see a very safe pick to be a 20-20 bull in the china shop winger. Poor man's Tarasenko.
13. Moritz Seider: Only saw the international play, but I like the tools. This is a scarcity of the asset ranking. Based on what I've heard, there is more offense to him... which would make him a steal if it's true. Downside risk of a Dan Girardi, and upside of a Colton Parayko.
14. Bobby Brink: He's going to be an effective offensive player. I think the drop-off for forwards is after him. IMO he's a David Perron clone. Which is not a bad player to have. He fits the mold of a 3rd line player that can rack up 50 points. Doesn't have to be a top 6 player to be considered a good pick.
15. Payton Krebs: Lots of character. He's the most torn player that I've heard my guys out West talk about. Played on some putrid teams, and put up numbers... but I don't see a goal scorer. Sam Bennet all over again imo. If he played on a better team, his numbers would be higher. The knock on him is that he doesn't have a ton of natural skill, and gets things done by will, smarts and effort. Which is great.... but the upside at the NHL level... might be a very good 3rd liner. He's going to go earlier than 15, because he's composed in a way that you want a young leader to be. A team like Buffalo needs a young player that can come in and be a leader.
16. Phil Tomasino: Another kid who I would love at the 20 slot for the Rangers. RH center. Crafty playmaker and scorer. Not too different from the Rangers Ryan Strome. I'd like to see Phil embrace being a defensive forward. The offense is what it is, but if he becomes a great defensive player who can kill penalties and check really well, he's going to be a value add to a roster sooner than later. A la Stanley Cup champion Robert Thomas.
17. Ryan Johnson: Another kid who plays a cerebral and mobile game, very smart player. Does what it takes to win. His stock is up higher because he was a dominant force on a championship run in the USHL. I've been a fan of his for a while. A couple of my contacts in SoCal love this kid and York. Both are new age players. Think Vince Dunn, Shea Theodore, Dmitri Orlov.
18. Victor Soderstrom: The Rangers already have a similar player in Nils Lundqvist, a smart skating two-way puck mover that gets the job done first. I don't see elite offense, but the skating ability alone will get him looks at the NHL level. Comparison would be Nicklas Jensen.
19. Alex Newhook: Could be the steal of the draft according to some. I don't know much about him, but an offensive center who dominates as he did isn't something that is common as a 17 year old in the junior leagues. Knock on him is the level of competition, which is great for a team that can pick him up.
20. Nils Hoglander: I see an NHLer out of this kid. He's going to play as a 19 year old imo. The question is upside. I don't see anything wrong with a very good 3rd line energy winger who can be a 15-15 player and kill penalties. IMO Nils is going to be that player very soon. He's another Beauvillier type of player.
21. Raphael Lavoie: Boom or bust pick. Some teams are going to stay away thinking that he only shows up when he feels like it... guy was a late birthday, and is gifted enough to dominate junior hockey... but didn't do it.... in the regular season. Playoff Lavoie was a monster. He's going to do higher imo. There is going to be some team that thinks the right environment is going to get it out of him. With a player like this, you need a strong room and coach. IMO he's a Brett Connolly. Some guys think he's a 30 goal scorer.
22. Jakob Pelletier: I've got a contact in Moncton that raves about this kid. Best player in the last ten years in that program with the exception of Garland. Plays a pro style game. He's another player that I think makes the show. 15-15 3rd liner, who coaches love. This is a trustworthy player with the lead. I think he's another one that can surprise and make the NHL in 2 years. Plays like Anthony Beauvillier.
23. Thomas Harley: He could be a riser. Lots of Travis Sanheim to his game. The offense came out of nowhere this year, but the size, and skating ability are appealing. IMO he's a boom or bust player. He played on a bad offensive team, but got a lot of prime minutes that you'd usually see an older player get on a deeper team. He also hasn't logged a lot of hockey miles.... so the question is if this year was an aberration or a break out of his natural progression. I tend to avoid spending a 1st on a player like this.
24. Samuel Poulin: I think he's got a high upside, and comes with some pedigree. There was a lot of hype around him as some thought he was on the level of Lafreniere a couple of years ago. Alexis put that to bed quickly, but Samuel still put up totals on a weak offensive team. He would be ranked higher if he played on a better team imo. Comparison: Riley Smith
25. Pavel Dorofeyev: I know very little about him, but a couple of the guys here who have some of the most astute hockey minds like him a lot. Gets on the list as a result of that. Not the most fair way of ranking a guy, but hey, it's my list, and my hockey circle thinks highly of him.
26. Marshall Warren: I think he can surprise some folks. He went to an elite school where a couple of my contacts kids play. He's skinny, and maybe 5 years away unless he is on an tier 1 athletic program. But the potential is there. Kid's got to beef up. The comparison is Thomas Hickey. That's not a sexy name, but still an NHLer nonetheless.
27. Yegor Afanasayov: He's another player that I know very little about, but my hockey circle likes. What I've heard is a guy who is a north south winger with long strides, and a strong forechecking game. Comparison is Boone Jenner.
28. Vladislav Kolyachonok: Would be an absolute steal in later rounds. He's in a bad program, and a city that can't support it's team. The question is whether or not the team drafting him can put him a better environment. He went from coming over to be in the best junior program, and playing the worst. He had an outstanding U18s, and was the best defensemen on a very weak team. This was a player who played against the other teams best competition night in and night out, and stood his own. Comparison: Darnell Nurse
29: Arthur Kaliyev: He's a player I'm torn on. I root for the kid, and he's got championship experience, but I don't see a guy you can win with. Hamilton is a rebuilding team, and unlike Peyton Krebs, Arthur dominated offensively with a weaker squad. But the folks that I talk to say this: He was a passenger on the championship run, and was benched at times because he floats. He's one dimensional, but that dimension is the most valued for a forward. He can lights out score. Has a shot that will beat NHL goalies clean. He's the type of player that can get you in to the playoffs, and be a good tertiary option. But he's not going to lead you to victory. The comparison is Mike Hoffman. You need guys like that, and on occasion can have a deep run with a player like that, but he's not a guy you would expect to be on a core of a year in and year out contender. For an offensive dynamo, he falls for not projecting to play a role on a winning team. Upside and skill wise, he's better than the 20 guys listed above him.
30: Ville Heinola: He's going to go higher. The skating ability is going to drive him up the rankings, in addition to his ability to play pro hockey sooner rather than later. IMO he's one of the safer bets to be a bottom pair guy, and a good one at that. Not too different than Nutivaara.
31: Mathew Robertson: Has a lot of the fundamentals you look for in a defenseman. The question is, do you spend a 1st round pick on a guy who at best would be a good bottom pair guy that is from the Marc Staal school of puck movement? These players have value, but for a guy like Robertson to succeed in today's game, he needs to be a player that can be a primary PK option, where he kills 1:20 of every PK, and plays mistake free 5v5 minutes against the other teams bottom six. In other words-> The team drafting him needs a legitimate top 4 where those two pairs can eat 22-25 on any given night for 82 games. Comparison: LH Robert Bortuzzo
