Speculation: Draft Thread 2018-19: Part X (No Kakko/Hughes Talk) - Post Your Mock Draft

[FIRE DRURY]

I think so too. The reports aren't as bad as some make it out to be. He should be out a few months and miss camp but it really is a rare injury. I wouldn't think twice if he fell to 20.

My thing is hitting home runs with our upcoming picks. Go boom or bust. We have enough "Good" prospects. Krebs is a top-10 talent in this draft. Like most players, he's not going to be NHL ready for a few years so if his development is delayed a bit while healing I'm ok with that.

 

[Mac n Gs]

What was that you said? Take Turcotte second overall?



Very interested to see Prashanth’s methodology for this, especially since his is the first model I’ve seen value USHL scoring that highly.

We’ve mentioned Brink and Pelletier a lot on these boards as potential options at 20.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

9 Days!

 

[mas0764]

What was that you said? Take Turcotte second overall?



Very interested to see Prashanth’s methodology for this, especially since his is the first model I’ve seen value USHL scoring that highly.

We’ve mentioned Brink and Pelletier a lot on these boards as potential options at 20.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong or doing the math wrong, but it seems horrendously pessimistic.

So if the projected points are 1.77 per 60, and Kakko plays a high-level 18 minutes per game of ice time (high for a forward).... x / 18 min per game = 1.77 / 60 min per game .... x / 18 = 0.0295 ... multiply both sides by 18 ..... x = 0.531 points per 18 min (ie, per game).... so that's what, 43-44 points per 82 game season?

And then the guy has a disclaimer that these numbers shouldn't be used for separating first round picks. Not sure what good this study is for then.

 

[True Blue]

Understood. But the reports are that it wasn't a full tear/rupture and that he'll be in crutches for only 4-6 weeks and should only miss training camp but expected to come back.
Its a big if but IF the Rangers stay at 20 and he slides down... I wouldn't pass on him. He'll probably drop but I don't think it will be to 20.

Yes, but a partial tear can weaken the area already. That just feels scary to me. Your presumption is that time will completely heal the area. I am not a doctor nor do I play one on tv, but from what little I understand such an area becomes more susceptible to such injuries once occured.

What bad juujuu did Cherapnov have other than playing in the KHL?

Dying comes to mind.

 

[RangerBoy]

Potential mid-round picks

Domenick Fensore, D, 18, (U.S. NTDP, USHL – No. 68 NA)
When it comes to the USA Hockey NTDP defense group, Cam York is typically the first name that comes up. But Fensore had a spectacular year of his own. His 42 points were second behind York. Teams aren’t typically lining up to draft small defenders, but his overall poise with the puck and in his own zone are quality attributes. If Fensore, a Boston University commit, can add a bit of meat to his frame, he’ll make an absolute steal in the third or fourth round.

Antti Tuomisto, D, 18 (Assat, Finland U-20 – No. 15 EU)
When I put a feeler out on Twitter to find out who other people liked as potential steals for the draft, Tuomisto was one that came up multiple times. And there’s a good reason why: Tuomisto had an impressive 26 assists and 35 points in 45 games to go along with 15 assists in 19 games with Finland’s U-18 team. These are impressive numbers for any forward, but Tuomisto is a big 6-foot-4 defenseman. Tuomisto is a guy that really rose up the rankings this season and has true top-four upside in the NHL given his offensive production and impressive work ethic.

Semyon Chistyakov, D, 17 (Ufa, MHL – No. 16 EU)
Talking to scouts, few players rose as much as Chistaykov did this season. Many didn’t even have this guy listed in their personal rankings, but after a strong season in the MHL and a good performance at the U-18 World Championship, Chistyakov is a real threat to go in the third round. Chistyakov has a laser beam of a shot and loves to throw huge hits despite his 5-foot-10, 168-pound frame. He really matured on the ice and showed great progress throughout the season, and while he’s still a project option, there’s a foundation in place.

 

[Bluenote13]

Without seeing who's on the board at the time I guess I wouldn't have any problem taking those defenseman in the middle rounds. I like all of them actually. Tuomisto is bound to be one of those Million Carolina picks they have.

Speaking of all those Carolina picks, three 2nd Rounders, wonder who they're going to trade up with from the number 28 spot. Pittsburgh and the Icelanders are teams drafting just ahead of them that are missing 2nd, 3rd, 4th round area picks.

The less 2nd round picks Carolina has ahead of us the better, I like some of the players I think they would be interested in drafting with those back-to-back picks not too far ahead of our first 2nd rounder.

 

[Alluckks]

1. NJ: Jack Hughes
2.NYR: Kaapo Kakko
3. CHI: Alex Turcotte
4. COL: Trevor Zegras
5. LA: Vasily Podkolzin
6. DET: Bowen Byram
7. BUF: Cole Caufield
8. EDM: Alex Newhook
9. ANA: Kirby Dach
10. VAN: Philip Broberg

 

[Barnaby]

I could be way off, but I don’t see Podkolzin going earlier than 10 and he could be that guy who drops to the mid to late teens. I don’t see him going top 6 after considering the year he had and the other players on the board. I don’t really see him in Buffalo, Edmonton, or Anaheim. I could see him going anywhere 10-20 except for Arizona. I’m curious to see where the kid ends up draft and career wise.

 

[eco's bones]

My thing is hitting home runs with our upcoming picks. Go boom or bust. We have enough "Good" prospects. Krebs is a top-10 talent in this draft. Like most players, he's not going to be NHL ready for a few years so if his development is delayed a bit while healing I'm ok with that.

It might take Krebs 4 or 5 years to establish himself but I would expect Krebs to be playing in the NHL (at least some) a couple years from now. Pretty much anyone in the top 15 or so (with the exception maybe of those who are going into college programs) should be and drafted players are making it faster into the NHL these days so that will apply to some after the top 15 too--but Krebs is an excellent bet to be. He played for a really bad team and it probably hurt his numbers which are really good anyway--he has a reputation for hard work and not taking nights off--so he's a gamer.

 

[NYRKING30]

Speaking of Podkolzin, if he is somehow still there at #20, should/would the rangers take him?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Speaking of Podkolzin, if he is somehow still there at #20, should/would the rangers take him?

At 20, no question. I just don't think he should go in the top-10 with all the questionmarks surrounding him. At 20, it's either him or any other player with questionmarks

 

[Matt Rentfree]

Speaking of Podkolzin, if he is somehow still there at #20, should/would the rangers take him?

He won't be on the board at 20 but if he is, they absolutely should. The kid is a bull. He's aggressive, plays with an edge and has a very high compete level. Even if he never puts up incredible offensive numbers, he'll still contribute.

 

[eco's bones]

I could be way off, but I don’t see Podkolzin going earlier than 10 and he could be that guy who drops to the mid to late teens. I don’t see him going top 6 after considering the year he had and the other players on the board. I don’t really see him in Buffalo, Edmonton, or Anaheim. I could see him going anywhere 10-20 except for Arizona. I’m curious to see where the kid ends up draft and career wise.

I could see Detroit at 6--possibly Vancouver at 10, Philly at 11 taking Podkolzin. If he drops further than that he might be the Tarasenko of this draft in that years from now teams are going to be kicking themselves over not taking him. I'd be surprised if he fell as far as 20 but if he does the Rangers should take him. The Rangers can afford to wait a couple years for him.

 

[chosen]

His goal scoring over the last 5 years places him as top-50. That inlcudes 2017 when he played less than 60 games due to injury and 2018 when he disappeared in the last two months due to the hamstring. That makes him a front line scorer. Not sure what else you are looking for. That may well be a moving average, but an average it is. We can debate how good he is, but that he is a legit top liner, of that there is no question.

The rejoinder to this remains the same. He may not have exceeded expectations, but that does not prevent him from being a top liner. And you cannot compare the ZBad and him due to contract status.

Teams win when their players perform to the levels that they are expected to perform. Wins come from performance, not strictly out performance. The chances of performance is much greater than out performance. If you are winning team and your players perform to their expected levels, you will continue to be very much a winning team.

If you have a 28-year-old good 1st-liner that you are happy with, you don't look to move him. You sign him. The idea that we don't want to spend the money to retain a good 1st-liner is illogical. Management doesn't deem him to be worth paying as a 1st-liner. And neither does anyone posting here.

We're not talking about a 34-year-old who it is feared will decline quickly.

Two years ago, if I had told you that the Rangers would be looking to move Kreider at 28, after he had performed as a good 1st-liner, the majority here would want the GM fired. Rather than admit that the bloom is off the glow of Kreider, everyone is looking to cash him in, while maintaining how good he is.

I agree that it's good to cash him in, but if I thought he was a great asset, I would never want to move him at 28.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Pronman was on Craig Custance’s podcast doing a mock draft where he acted as each team’s GM. He mocked us Kakko and Höglander at 2&20. A lot of the names we liked were already off the board, and he debated between Nils and Lavoie at this spot.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Pronman was on Craig Custance’s podcast doing a mock draft where he acted as each team’s GM. He mocked us Kakko and Höglander at 2&20. A lot of the names we liked were already off the board, and he debated between Nils and Lavoie at this spot.

I agree with Pronman there, Nils is a great talent who should be considered there if all our targets are gone.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Pronman was on Craig Custance’s podcast doing a mock draft where he acted as each team’s GM. He mocked us Kakko and Höglander at 2&20. A lot of the names we liked were already off the board, and he debated between Nils and Lavoie at this spot.

At 20, I hope they go with a kid with high upside. Höglander, Puistola and Dorofeyev fit that description. As @Edge said, Rangers aren't looking for the prospect with an A+ report card in 2019, they want to get the kid who has an A+ report card in 2023

 

[RGY]

At 20, I hope they go with a kid with high upside. Höglander, Puistola and Dorofeyev fit that description. As @Edge said, Rangers aren't looking for the prospect with an A+ report card in 2019, they want to get the kid who has an A+ report card in 2023

I do like Hoglander.

But I would also say Seider has the A+ report card both now and in 2023 for us if we are able to draft him.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I do like Hoglander.

But I would also say Seider has the A+ report card both now and in 2023 for us if we are able to draft him.

I think it's 99% sure Seider is gone before 20. He's arguably the 2nd or 3rd best D-man in the draft and I don't see the draft shaking out in a way where the first 19 picks end up being 17 forwards

 

[BKGooner]

He won't be on the board at 20 but if he is, they absolutely should. The kid is a bull. He's aggressive, plays with an edge and has a very high compete level. Even if he never puts up incredible offensive numbers, he'll still contribute.

Not sure how I feel about this. The Rangers should always be taking BPA every pick this draft. At 20, Podkolzin is probably the best player depending on other teams' picks, but how many of these tweeners does a team need? Is he more competitive than LA 50? Do more off the score sheet stuff than Fast? Granted Fast will probably be gone before Pod sees NHL games. The Rangers need impact players. No problem with them going off the board a little at 20 trying to find one.

 

[charliemurphy]

My thing is hitting home runs with our upcoming picks. Go boom or bust. We have enough "Good" prospects. Krebs is a top-10 talent in this draft. Like most players, he's not going to be NHL ready for a few years so if his development is delayed a bit while healing I'm ok with that.

Agreed.

 

[NYRKING30]

Yeah, if for some chance he is there at 20, i sincerely hope they take him. For us and the player we both have mutually beneficial situations. He has a contract to fulfill for another 2 years in the KHL, and the Rangers with their glut of forwards as is and young kids ready to step in more over the next 2 years. I could see it but unfortunately ultimately I don't think hell fall far enough to us to find out.

 

[NYRKING30]

Not sure how I feel about this. The Rangers should always be taking BPA every pick this draft. At 20, Podkolzin is probably the best player depending on other teams' picks, but how many of these tweeners does a team need? Is he more competitive than LA 50? Do more off the score sheet stuff than Fast? Granted Fast will probably be gone before Pod sees NHL games. The Rangers need impact players. No problem with them going off the board a little at 20 trying to find one.

If his contract wasn't 2 more years in Russia he's most likely a top 5 pick, he was consensus 3rd pick most of the year. His skillset is not a tweener's skillset. He has enormous potential.

 

[charliemurphy]

Yes, but a partial tear can weaken the area already. That just feels scary to me. Your presumption is that time will completely heal the area. I am not a doctor nor do I play one on tv, but from what little I understand such an area becomes more susceptible to such injuries once occured.
Dying comes to mind.

Yeah, I can tell it scares you, lol.
A partial tear doesn't mean the kid is finished. I'm not presuming anything. He'll be on crutches and starting rehab within a week and back to normal within 4-6 months. Missing training camp won't be the end for this kid. Again, this is very rare injury and its not as bad as some would think.
Apart from dying... that's why I mentioned the KHL you silly rabbit.