Speculation: Draft Thread 2018-19: Part X (No Kakko/Hughes Talk) - Post Your Mock Draft

[chosen]

Look at his point totals. That is with playing injured on the back end. To say he is not a top line wing is disingenuous. You are really going to come up with 30 LWs that are better?

He is in this situation because the GM wants to acquire more assets and Krieder may be the team's asset that is the price to acquire such.

His point total places him as 91st forward and his goals have him as top-50. That is a top line player. And he played hurt the last part of the year.

The following forwards had the same or more points:

Gallagher
Danault
R. Smith
J. Williams
Niederreiter
Nelson

Are they legit first liners? Not to me. Bad teams have to have someone on their top line, but a top-line Bruin is worth more than a top-line Ranger.

Obviously, there's many more. You can argue he's a better player than them because of other factors, but how many players on a top line are judged in value by other factors? There aren't many.

He's had seasons without major injuries and still not been a front-line scorer.

If his career arc had matched Zib's he wouldn't be available in a trade, and whether anyone is willing to admit it now, that arc was expected by a majority of posters here. Is there anyone here who believes he exceeded expectations?

Teams win when their players exceed expectations.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

My prediction: Kakko at #2

And Podkolzin drops to #20 because of the Russian factor and his desire to stay in the KHL, and the Rangers take him at 20.

 

[Leetch3]

My prediction: Kakko at #2

And Podkolzin drops to #20 because of the Russian factor and his desire to stay in the KHL, and the Rangers take him at 20.

i can't see him falling that far but i'd sign for that

 

[Lion Hound]

My prediction: Kakko at #2

And Podkolzin drops to #20 because of the Russian factor and his desire to stay in the KHL, and the Rangers take him at 20.

That would be epic!

But i think that is a little far fetched. I think he goes 5-7.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

That is a possibility. Especially if Knight going off the board coincides with a run on defensemen (Broberg, Sodestrom, possibly Seider). Suddenly that center that we have talked about could fall without having to move assets to move up.

I do however feel that Gorton is going to be aggressive. If he sees one of the names he covets start to fall, I think that if possible, he makes the move and does not take a chance in waiting.

Yes, and i'd want him to be. Coming out of the draft with Kakko & another truly highly touted prospect I feel is almost necessary at this point.

 

[True Blue]

He's had seasons without major injuries and still not been a front-line scorer.

His goal scoring over the last 5 years places him as top-50. That inlcudes 2017 when he played less than 60 games due to injury and 2018 when he disappeared in the last two months due to the hamstring. That makes him a front line scorer. Not sure what else you are looking for. That may well be a moving average, but an average it is. We can debate how good he is, but that he is a legit top liner, of that there is no question.

If his career arc had matched Zib's he wouldn't be available in a trade, and whether anyone is willing to admit it now, that arc was expected by a majority of posters here. Is there anyone here who believes he exceeded expectations?

The rejoinder to this remains the same. He may not have exceeded expectations, but that does not prevent him from being a top liner. And you cannot compare the ZBad and him due to contract status.

Teams win when their players exceed expectations.

Teams win when their players perform to the levels that they are expected to perform. Wins come from performance, not strictly out performance. The chances of performance is much greater than out performance. If you are winning team and your players perform to their expected levels, you will continue to be very much a winning team.

 

[McRanger]

The following forwards had the same or more points:

Gallagher
Danault
R. Smith
J. Williams
Niederreiter
Nelson

Are they legit first liners? Not to me. Bad teams have to have someone on their top line, but a top-line Bruin is worth more than a top-line Ranger.

Obviously, there's many more. You can argue he's a better player than them because of other factors, but how many players on a top line are judged in value by other factors? There aren't many.

He's had seasons without major injuries and still not been a front-line scorer.

If his career arc had matched Zib's he wouldn't be available in a trade, and whether anyone is willing to admit it now, that arc was expected by a majority of posters here. Is there anyone here who believes he exceeded expectations?

Teams win when their players exceed expectations.

50-55 points is on the lower end of 1st line production (especially for a winger) and has been for a while now.

In the 5 years since Kreider became a full time NHLer, he is 17th in goals and 24th in points amongst LWs, 49th in goals and 86th in points amongst forwards. And the numbers get better as you make the time frame smaller.

He's a 1st liner.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

TB is in here dropping knowledge bombs.

 

[bobbop]

The best recent comparable is that Lucic at 50% got the 13th overall from LA a couple of years ago.

I think the Rangers can get a similar pick or a 2020 pick from a bubble team that is under pressure to make the playoffs next season.

I'm looking at Edmonton, Arizona, Florida, Montreal, and Dallas. We already get Dallas' 2020 1st if Zuccarello signs there. Would they give up the 18th overall for Kreider with nothing retained?

Edmonton their 2020 1st? Montreal the 15th overall, Arizona the 14th overall or Florida the 13th overall for Kreider at 50%? I feel like there would be a taker somewhere in that group of teams.

Lucic at 50% got 13th overall and two prospects, including Martin Jones.

Thinking out loud...if the Rangers can trade for another pick between 2 and 20, I wonder if that becomes a forward and #20 heads back to Winnipeg as part of a Trouba trade.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Lucic at 50% got 13th overall and two prospects, including Martin Jones.

Thinking out loud...if the Rangers can trade for another pick between 2 and 20, I wonder if that becomes a forward and #20 heads back to Winnipeg as part of a Trouba trade.

Hit that rolodex Bob, get some skinny!

 

[bobbop]

Hit that rolodex Bob, get some skinny!

Efforting!

 

[charliemurphy]

With Krebs sliding down because of his injury and IF the Rangers stay at 20, do you take him? I don't know the status but last I checked it was partial Achilles tear. Thoughts?

 

[charliemurphy]

50-55 points is on the lower end of 1st line production (especially for a winger) and has been for a while now.

In the 5 years since Kreider became a full time NHLer, he is 17th in goals and 24th in points amongst LWs, 49th in goals and 86th in points amongst forwards. And the numbers get better as you make the time frame smaller.

He's a 1st liner.

I think the question becomes what kind of price tag comes along with that kind of production. And for how long.
Has Kreider been full time in the NHL for only 5 years? Seems as if its been longer.

 

[McRanger]

I think the question becomes what kind of price tag comes along with that kind of production. And for how long.
Has Kreider been full time in the NHL for only 5 years? Seems as if its been longer.

I wasn't arguing we should re-sign Kreider, only that its pointless to say Kreider isn't a 1st liner when his production says otherwise. How we made it through the dead puck era all the way to 2019 without people adjusting their production expectations for 1st liners is beyond me. I had to go all the way back to before the Rangers won the cup to find a player ranked 20th-30th in LW scoring (so low end 1st liner) who scored 60 points.

And yeah it does seem longer, probably because Kreider made such an impression in the '12 playoffs. But his first full year was '14-'15, he started '13-'14 in Hartford.

 

[True Blue]

With Krebs sliding down because of his injury and IF the Rangers stay at 20, do you take him? I don't know the status but last I checked it was partial Achilles tear. Thoughts?

Can't lie. Such an injury scares me.

Yes, in theory, if Krebs slides to 20, it should be a great value pick. But a tear of the Achilles, albeit a partial one, is nothing to ignore. You are talking about the potential of tearing it and then missing an entire year of development.

This could be one of those times you take a look at history (Blackburn, Chernisky, Cherapanov) and stay away from bad juu juu.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

With Krebs sliding down because of his injury and IF the Rangers stay at 20, do you take him? I don't know the status but last I checked it was partial Achilles tear. Thoughts?

Absolutely. He'd be a steal @20.

 

[patnyrnyg]

50-55 points is on the lower end of 1st line production (especially for a winger) and has been for a while now.

In the 5 years since Kreider became a full time NHLer, he is 17th in goals and 24th in points amongst LWs, 49th in goals and 86th in points amongst forwards. And the numbers get better as you make the time frame smaller.

He's a 1st liner.

a very lower level first liner.

 

[McRanger]

a very lower level first liner.

Last season Kreider was 19th in LW points and 14th in LW goals. So he's basically a middle of the road to lower 1st LWer, or at least that's what his production showed him to be last season. Over the last couple of seasons hes closer to lower level, though "very low" is tough to say since there are only handful of points separating "very low" to the middle.

Middle to low forwards are pretty much the only players called "1st liners" anyway. The top wingers are called "elite" or "franchise' or whatever epithet is being overused at the moment.

 

[eco's bones]

To me Kreider is like a 1st-2nd line tweener. I get that people will say there's not 31 other better left wingers but in terms of the best it's setting the bar low. If you're the 31st best in the league that means you're on the bottom and in that case you're on the bottom of what you might call a 1st line left wing. Kreider's probably somewhere around 25--mind you he's a good player and for where he was picked in the draft he was picked he turned out very well. But he's also pretty much plateaued. He'll get you 25 to 30 goals and somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 points. He will keep other teams on their toes with his speed. He has a good (not great) physical game. He's average as far as the defensive part of his game--it's improved with time but he's never really been an option as a penalty killer.

I don't mind keeping Chris but if the plan is to trade him for a package maybe just a bit better than Hayes and then try to sign Panarin--I'm all for that plan. That's what I would try to do.

 

[patnyrnyg]

Last season Kreider was 19th in LW points and 14th in LW goals. So he's basically a middle of the road to lower 1st LWer, or at least that's what his production showed him to be last season. Over the last couple of seasons hes closer to lower level, though "very low" is tough to say since there are only handful of points separating "very low" to the middle.

Middle to low forwards are pretty much the only players called "1st liners" anyway. The top wingers are called "elite" or "franchise' or whatever epithet is being overused at the moment.

In 2018-19, there were 24 LW's between 40-69 points and they ranked 12th-35th. Players in that range, do not justify the cap space Kreider will likely occupy, and I am a huge Kreider fan. Skinner at 63 points and a concussion history getting $9MM per for 8 years, tells me Kreider is going to get at least $7-7.5MM. Not worth it, imo.

 

[cwede]

article at TheAthletic that might spark conversation from you draft-niks

write-ups on why, for each, but behind paywall

Wheeler: Ten 2019 NHL draft prospects your favourite team should probably avoid By Scott Wheeler
Wheeler: Ten 2019 NHL draft prospects your favourite team...
Vasili Podkolzin — RW, SKA St. Petersburg, 6-foot-1My final ranking: No. 17
Philip Broberg — LHD, AIK, 6-foot-3My final ranking: No. 19
Victor Soderstrom — RHD, Brynäs, 5-foot-11My final ranking: No. 28
Tobias Bjornfot — LHD, Djurgardens, 6-foot-0My final ranking: No. 66
Alex Vlasic — LHD, USDP, 6-foot-6My final ranking: No. 78
Daniil Gutik — LW, Loko Yaroslavl, 6-foot-3My final ranking: No. 90
Matvei Guskov — C, London Knights, 6-foot-1My final ranking: Unranked
Daniil Misyul — LHD, Loko Yaroslavl, 6-foot-3 My final ranking: Unranked
Michael Vukojevic — LHD, Kitchener Rangers, 6-foot-3 My final ranking: Unranked
Hunter Jones — G, Peterborough Petes, 6-foot-4 My final ranking: Unranked

 

[Bluenote13]

article at TheAthletic that might spark conversation from you draft-niks

write-ups on why, for each, but behind paywall

Wheeler: Ten 2019 NHL draft prospects your favourite team should probably avoid By Scott Wheeler
Wheeler: Ten 2019 NHL draft prospects your favourite team...
Vasili Podkolzin — RW, SKA St. Petersburg, 6-foot-1My final ranking: No. 17
Philip Broberg — LHD, AIK, 6-foot-3My final ranking: No. 19
Victor Soderstrom — RHD, Brynäs, 5-foot-11My final ranking: No. 28
Tobias Bjornfot — LHD, Djurgardens, 6-foot-0My final ranking: No. 66
Alex Vlasic — LHD, USDP, 6-foot-6My final ranking: No. 78
Daniil Gutik — LW, Loko Yaroslavl, 6-foot-3My final ranking: No. 90
Matvei Guskov — C, London Knights, 6-foot-1My final ranking: Unranked
Daniil Misyul — LHD, Loko Yaroslavl, 6-foot-3 My final ranking: Unranked
Michael Vukojevic — LHD, Kitchener Rangers, 6-foot-3 My final ranking: Unranked
Hunter Jones — G, Peterborough Petes, 6-foot-4 My final ranking: Unranked

18 year olds have holes in their games, whoa, gotta take a step back and think about that one...… he's really going out on a limb there with all those North Americans on the list

Late 2001 birthdays mostly too

 

[LORDE]

To me Kreider is like a 1st-2nd line tweener. I get that people will say there's not 31 other better left wingers but in terms of the best it's setting the bar low. If you're the 31st best in the league that means you're on the bottom and in that case you're on the bottom of what you might call a 1st line left wing. Kreider's probably somewhere around 25--mind you he's a good player and for where he was picked in the draft he was picked he turned out very well. But he's also pretty much plateaued. He'll get you 25 to 30 goals and somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 points. He will keep other teams on their toes with his speed. He has a good (not great) physical game. He's average as far as the defensive part of his game--it's improved with time but he's never really been an option as a penalty killer.

I don't mind keeping Chris but if the plan is to trade him for a package maybe just a bit better than Hayes and then try to sign Panarin--I'm all for that plan. That's what I would try to do.

Sums it up for me also.

Love the kid. Have always loved him. But he always leaves me wanting more. Like when he went wildly to the net... I love that... couldn’t care less what MTL fans say. I love that and NEVER see that from him now. Hes great in front and has that one off shot down the wing that worked a ton last season but that won’t go in anymore.

Trade him and I’ll root for him unless he’s playing us

 

[charliemurphy]

Can't lie. Such an injury scares me.

Yes, in theory, if Krebs slides to 20, it should be a great value pick. But a tear of the Achilles, albeit a partial one, is nothing to ignore. You are talking about the potential of tearing it and then missing an entire year of development.

This could be one of those times you take a look at history (Blackburn, Chernisky, Cherapanov) and stay away from bad juu juu.

Understood. But the reports are that it wasn't a full tear/rupture and that he'll be in crutches for only 4-6 weeks and should only miss training camp but expected to come back.
Its a big if but IF the Rangers stay at 20 and he slides down... I wouldn't pass on him. He'll probably drop but I don't think it will be to 20.
What bad juujuu did Cherapnov have other than playing in the KHL?

 

[charliemurphy]

Absolutely. He'd be a steal @20.

I think so too. The reports aren't as bad as some make it out to be. He should be out a few months and miss camp but it really is a rare injury. I wouldn't think twice if he fell to 20.