Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Sportsnet has Harley up at 12 and I recently saw him in Cosentino's Top 10. Byram will definitely be out of reach but looking strictly at the D in this draft is it possible we could trade up a few spots to land a tier 2 defenseman? I didn't have Harley up in that group of Soderstrom, York & Broberg. (I'd happily take any of those 3 but I feel like York is dropping off)

How far of a drop off are guys like Seider and Heinola? If we get up to 18-19 I definitely think one of this group will be there, but I'd like to aim higher. Hopefully Knight goes somewhere in the top 20 and there is a run on forwards. There seems to be a lot of risers after the midterm rankings but if we could somehow manage to get a top 5 dman in this draft in additon to Kakko/Hughes it would be huge...

 

[offdacrossbar]

lavoie seems to have been labeled some what.

his size- hes a monster and skating- he really skates beautifully and ability to control the play plus that lethal shot is a pretty decent package.

still, lots of shade thrown at the kid with so many skills.

if you look at what hes doing ion the payoffs, it's impressive.

i think hes a kid that montreal may take a flyer on.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

lavoie seems to have been labeled some what.

his size- hes a monster and skating- he really skates beautifully and ability to control the play plus that lethal shot is a pretty decent package.

still, lots of shade thrown at the kid with so many skills.

if you look at what hes doing ion the payoffs, it's impressive.

i think hes a kid that montreal may take a flyer on.

After watching his game highlights i think hes got MTL written all over him too. He'll most likely be there at #15

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Rank your Top 10 D after Byram-

Insert a player not on list if needed

Soderstrom
Broberg
Harley
York
Seider
Heinola
Robertson
Vlasic
Thomson
Bjornfot

 

[Ola]

I like him better as a pick in the late first than I do in the top 15, or even top 20.

I think he becomes a more interesting prospect if you go in with the right expectations.

As a line driver and potential core player, as he once projected? Eh, don't see it.

As a support guy who might find a niche as guy who pops in some points and can bring skill to a third line (maaaaaybe a second line)? Yeah, that's possible.

The thing is, here is the core of where I disagree.

How many core players or line drivers will come out of this draft? It’s not much more than a handful on average. Teams have about 2 guys like that on average.

And there are so many players in this league that do really well without being line drivers. Not in the sense I interpret that word. The Tkachuk’s are perfect examples. They don’t contribute much in many areas of the game. You don’t see them going deep and driving the puck up ice and so forth. They mostly contribute in the attacking zone, and more the closer to the net you get.

I think a big difference between Lavoie and many ranked higher than him, is that those kids are more of a team driver in juniors while Lavoie is more limited when it comes to playing that go-to style. But most of those guys won’t become complete dominating players in the NHL either.

Watching what kind of skill Raphaël Lavoie have, it includes what it takes to do well as a heavy scoring winger in the NHL. And he isn’t at all that far behind many of the top guys in those areas. Then he lacks the ability to run a PP or take over a game, cover much ice, etc., but will that hurt him much in the NHL?

I don’t think Lavoie should be top 14-15. But I definitely wouldn’t be disappointed if we got him around 18, we would get a kid who had a ton of hockey in him, that I think is likely to become a solid heavy scoring winger, and that I also wouldn’t rule out that he could become more than that, and move closer to guys like the Tkachucks, Jamie Benn, Blake Wheeler, Mark Stone and co. That is of course his ceiling, but...

And like I think a ton of people are infatuated with stats and are down on him for the very same reason they didn’t like the last Tkachuk much at all. Brady didn’t score a ton in college either because he isn’t either that guy that puts a team on his back, get him to where he must be on the ice and he will do great, if not and he won’t score a ton. Lavoie don’t have great stats in the Q for the same reason.

 

[Edge]

The thing is, here is the core of where I disagree.

How many core players or line drivers will come out of this draft? It’s not much more than a handful on average. Teams have about 2 guys like that on average.

And there are so many players in this league that do really well without being line drivers. Not in the sense I interpret that word. The Tkachuk’s are perfect examples. They don’t contribute much in many areas of the game. You don’t see them going deep and driving the puck up ice and so forth. They mostly contribute in the attacking zone, and more the closer to the net you get.

I think a big difference between Lavoie and many ranked higher than him, is that those kids are more of a team driver in juniors while Lavoie is more limited when it comes to playing that go-to style. But most of those guys won’t become complete dominating players in the NHL either.

Watching what kind of skill Raphaël Lavoie have, it includes what it takes to do well as a heavy scoring winger in the NHL. And he isn’t at all that far behind many of the top guys in those areas. Then he lacks the ability to run a PP or take over a game, cover much ice, etc., but will that hurt him much in the NHL?

I don’t think Lavoie should be top 14-15. But I definitely wouldn’t be disappointed if we got him around 18, we would get a kid who had a ton of hockey in him, that I think is likely to become a solid heavy scoring winger, and that I also wouldn’t rule out that he could become more than that, and move closer to guys like the Tkachucks, Jamie Benn, Blake Wheeler, Mark Stone and co. That is of course his ceiling, but...

And like I think a ton of people are infatuated with stats and are down on him for the very same reason they didn’t like the last Tkachuk much at all. Brady didn’t score a ton in college either because he isn’t either that guy that puts a team on his back, get him to where he must be on the ice and he will do great, if not and he won’t score a ton. Lavoie don’t have great stats in the Q for the same reason.

Eh, at the end of a day I see a kid who is older, bigger and stronger than many of his contemporaries in this draft and yet I don't necessarily see dynamic results or even consistent play.

Even if we remove core and line drivers from the equation, there's a just a good number of kids who have looked considerably better than him, despite being younger, having less natural skill, and being less experienced.

This is a kid who missed last year's draft by 10 days. If this was his D+1 season, it wouldn't have been viewed as an overwhelming success.

My concerns about Lavoie aren't a stats problem. It's a watching him for three years and not seeing nearly enough progress problem.

 

[Ola]

Edge- Ok, then I understand where you are coming from.

 

[Ola]

I’ve only seen Lavoie play against older guys, at the U18 when he was almost a year younger and the WJSS where he was two years behind most. Did really well at both places.

But lack of development YTY is not great.

In most rankings that I see — that shouldn’t be trusted that much I recon — Lavoie is more often around 25-30 than 15-25, and a lot of kids that also has issues get the nod over him.

It’s one thing that Lavoie isn’t top 5-10 that he might have been projected to be 18 months ago. If I had the choice between RL or someone that could become a line driver like Larkin I would bet on the later every day. But after top 15 there aren’t many guys like that available.

My point is just that you get a player with a ton of hockey in him in that kid. If you draft many of these kids and take them to a development camp, they will be one of everyone else and not stand out much, showing glimpses here and there. Lavoie would immediately stick out, that is how big of a difference there are between him and say a Pelletier or someone like that. Lavoie would like more be at Chytils level when he comes to camp.

 

[Edge]

I’ve only seen Lavoie play against older guys, at the U18 when he was almost a year younger and the WJSS where he was two years behind most. Did really well at both places.

But lack of development YTY is not great.

In most rankings that I see — that shouldn’t be trusted that much I recon — Lavoie is more often around 25-30 than 15-25, and a lot of kids that also has issues get the nod over him.

It’s one thing that Lavoie isn’t top 5-10 that he might have been projected to be 18 months ago. If I had the choice between RL or someone that could become a line driver like Larkin I would bet on the later every day. But after top 15 there aren’t many guys like that available.

My point is just that you get a player with a ton of hockey in him in that kid. If you draft many of these kids and take them to a development camp, they will be one of everyone else and not stand out much, showing glimpses here and there. Lavoie would immediately stick out, that is how big of a difference there are between him and say a Pelletier or someone like that. Lavoie would like more be at Chytils level when he comes to camp.

Personally, I can live with him as the draft gets later into the first round. I know some observers have him in their top 15 or so, and I'm not comfortable there.

I'd probably still be a little hesitant with the Jets pick, because I suspect some guys I have higher might slide. But with a potential Dallas pick? Sure I'd be open to it.

So it's really a matter of "when" for me.

 

[Leetch3]

Sportsnet has Harley up at 12 and I recently saw him in Cosentino's Top 10. Byram will definitely be out of reach but looking strictly at the D in this draft is it possible we could trade up a few spots to land a tier 2 defenseman? I didn't have Harley up in that group of Soderstrom, York & Broberg. (I'd happily take any of those 3 but I feel like York is dropping off)

How far of a drop off are guys like Seider and Heinola? If we get up to 18-19 I definitely think one of this group will be there, but I'd like to aim higher. Hopefully Knight goes somewhere in the top 20 and there is a run on forwards. There seems to be a lot of risers after the midterm rankings but if we could somehow manage to get a top 5 dman in this draft in additon to Kakko/Hughes it would be huge...

‘Tier 2’ can be defined different ways but with our depth I wouldn’t bother trading up unless it’s a guy that you think has top pair/top line potential. If it’s not that you can probably get just as good of a player in our spot

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

18-20 locked. Thanks Canes

 

[AIexisLafreniereNYR]

So we were laughed at that the Stars would come close to the WCF. Let alone the playoffs. Now here they are, one game away. Close this baby out.

 

[Polar Bear]

So we were laughed at that the Stars would come close to the WCF. Let alone the playoffs. Now here they are, one game away. Close this baby out.

Jeff GOATrton

 

[AIexisLafreniereNYR]

Jeff GOATrton

Dallas falls in love with Zucc, resigns him after a WCF run. Another first. botta bing botta boom

 

[Beacon]

How many core players or line drivers will come out of this draft?

I ran the numbers last year. GMs talk of wanting a 10-year player. That would be 750+ career games.

The average draft produces 16-17 such players. The legendary 2003 draft produced I believe 23 such players, but all other drafts are under 20. This includes non-impact long term NHLers such as our own Dominic Moore, among several other non-impact long term NHLers we drafted.

The number of impact players in the whole draft is around 10. Which is why it is laughable to suggest "whoever we get in the top 10 will be a good player." Yeah... no.

That number wont increase. For one, the number of spots is the same as before, plus Vegas. But two, because of the cap, there's more need for young, cost-controlled players, so old guys dont last as long. In the 90s we had teams tha averaged 32 years old. Today, very few teams have many non-stars who are over 32.

Realistically, there are 10 long term impact players per draft, give or take 2-3

 

[The Sweetness]

It’s CRAZY the playoffs have gone on so long and that 18 overall and another first is still a possibility.

I agree 100% with @Edge’s views on Lavoie. He’s an older draftee who seems like a manchild out there but I’d guess he’s passed by others in 2-3 of development.

If we get that Dallas 1st I’d try to go all-in to move into the top 11 though I’d guess the price will be too high.

 

[apoptygma]

It’s CRAZY the playoffs have gone on so long and that 18 overall and another first is still a possibility.

I agree 100% with @Edge’s views on Lavoie. He’s an older draftee who seems like a manchild out there but I’d guess he’s passed by others in 2-3 of development.

If we get that Dallas 1st I’d try to go all-in to move into the top 11 though I’d guess the price will be too high.

Ye, getting into the top 11 might be to expensive, maybe impossible. Some experts have said this draft is very good in the first 1/3 of the first round, so we need to find a team that would want quantity over quality regarding picks. And that might not even exist. A small number of the players picked between 18 and 58 will end up as top 6 forwards or top 4 d-men, we might aswel keep our picks and hope we get our hands on one of them.

 

[The Sweetness]

Ye, getting into the top 11 might be to expensive, maybe impossible. Some experts have said this draft is very good in the first 1/3 of the first round, so we need to find a team that would want quantity over quality regarding picks. And that might not even exist. A small number of the players picked between 18 and 58 will end up as top 6 forwards or top 4 d-men, we might aswel keep our picks and hope we get our hands on one of them.

Yeah, I agree. If I’m a team in the top ~11 I need to get an offer that would make me move a guy who I feel will most likely be an impact player.

That would require a lot of assets as even a pick at ~18 has a decent chance of busting so if that’s the center piece I’d need way more adds.

This draft is interesting on many levels as we have so little separation from 3 to around 11 but it’ll also be interesting to see if any trades are made.

If Kreider can’t be in a package to get us in that range I’d prefer to see him moved for a more sure prospect as I’m not sure how I feel about this draft after the first 1/3 of round 1.

Re: Kreider, the other option would be to move him for pick 14 if we can’t go higher and THEN try to move that pick to get in the top 11.

 

[eco's bones]

Rank your Top 10 D after Byram-

Insert a player not on list if needed

Soderstrom
Broberg
Harley
York
Seider
Heinola
Robertson
Vlasic
Thomson
Bjornfot

Byram
Broberg
Soderstrom
York
Seider
Harley
Heinola
Robertson
Kolyachonok
Vlasic
Korczak

Honorable mention--Thomson, Helleson, Honka, Johnson, Kokkonen, Bjornfot.

Not sure if he'll get drafted but I'm intrigued by Kazak overager Valeri Orekhov.

 

[Edge]

I’m not going to lie, Harley has me the most uneasy out of some of the top defensive prospects.

All of them have things they need to work on, some more than others. But the wholes in Harley’s game just see to stand out more when I watch him.

The defensive decisions leave me wanting, and I see a fairly evident aversion to contact or engagement. Factoring in the size as well, and he reminds me a lot of Bobby Sanguinetti in his draft year. Sanguinetti might be the only post 2005 Rangers first round pick who I wasn’t crazy about before he was ours.

 

[brians1128]

Our winnipeg pick and potential for a 28-31 is looking better and better. This offseason has really hit me, I never expected this type of turnaround so fast. I know @Edge said it a few pages back or in another thread but I do hope they go aggressive here at the draft trying to add another top center prospect. stick it out next year and go through the growing pains of icing a young team and get rewarded one more time, 2020 looks like you will be rewarded big time in the top 10. Gorton is looking like a magician with the Zucc deal. I still remain, Kakko, one of the top centers prefer a playmaking center, and Sieder/Korczak that will add the size lacking on the right side. hell if they do move Krieder for 14th moving up from there, they probably wont need to use the other firsts, they can go vesey/pionk +tampa pick +14th and get both defenseman

 

[Fugazy]

18-20 locked. Thanks Canes

All while sweeping the Islanders out of the playoffs. Incredible.

 

[I Eat Crow]

To me, there's a noticeable drop off in quality of players after the 20 spot. Thank you Carolina!

 

[Joey Bones]

Byram
Broberg
Soderstrom
York
Seider
Harley
Heinola
Robertson
Kolyachonok
Vlasic
Korczak

Honorable mention--Thomson, Helleson, Honka, Johnson, Kokkonen, Bjornfot.

Not sure if he'll get drafted but I'm intrigued by Kazak overager Valeri Orekhov.

Bjornfot is highly underrated. I wouldn't mind reaching on him early if I were NYR!!

 

[bl02]

Sportsnet has Harley up at 12 and I recently saw him in Cosentino's Top 10. Byram will definitely be out of reach but looking strictly at the D in this draft is it possible we could trade up a few spots to land a tier 2 defenseman? I didn't have Harley up in that group of Soderstrom, York & Broberg. (I'd happily take any of those 3 but I feel like York is dropping off)

How far of a drop off are guys like Seider and Heinola? If we get up to 18-19 I definitely think one of this group will be there, but I'd like to aim higher. Hopefully Knight goes somewhere in the top 20 and there is a run on forwards. There seems to be a lot of risers after the midterm rankings but if we could somehow manage to get a top 5 dman in this draft in additon to Kakko/Hughes it would be huge...

Harley has been rising for over a month now.
Do we have any interest in a guy like Suzuki in the first round? He seems to be showing up top 15ish in a lot of mocks