Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Ola]

The 2020 pick is a 3rd/1st.

Ouch

 

[Ola]

Just listening to Chris peters on Sirius regarding the draft and feels like it’s hughes-kakko tier 1 then 3-9/10 tier 2 then around 10ish to 20 next tier so the Winnipeg pick should put us in a nice place. He also likes the depth of the first round where hopefully the Dallas comes into play.

Would be interesting to here which 4 of the following kids that he has as ‘tier 3’:
Turcotte
Newhook
Zegras
Byram
Podkolzin
Broberg
Boldy
Caufield
Cozens
Dach
Knight

 

[Ola]

This is an excellent point. Would they rather use their first to lock up someone they know fits in with the team and provides the secondary scoring they were desperately looking for or risk trying to find a better fill in next year for it? When framed that way it seems like a no brainer for Dallas since they would likely be using it next year for another upcoming UFA and putting themselves in the exact same position.

I am fairly certain that they only will let Zucc walk if they can find a better alternative for them. Zuke plays exactly like their core does, he is interchangeable with Rads, Seguin and Benn on lines (not at center, but he can play well with their top guys). Someone like Skinner wouldn’t be that, different mentality/style. Nyqvist wouldn’t. Nill was in on Karlsson, I wouldn’t rule out him giving Panarins agent a call. Duchene could help them of course, he has cap space with the Spezza deal being up. But, I don’t see many other alternatives, and even if Dallas went hard after Panarin or Duchene I think it’s far from a given that they would get either.

Eberle would be an OK fit for them, but I don’t think he would be that cheap either. And it’s always a risk to take in someone new.

Kevin Hayes? Why not. Could also be an option.

But in the end, it’s not like they have a clear shot at either resigning Zucc + giving up a 1st or just signing some other UFA for the same price Zucc would cost that would be just as good.

As soon as they get into the stage where everyone can discuss with all free agents, you are entering the territory of real high stakes poker. Rads soured on MTL and went to Dallas in the blink of an eye. Nill cannot be sure to get like one of Panarin/Duchene/Hayes — and if he waits to find out if it’s possible, all of a sudden some team that Zucc likes jumps in with a 6.5m x 3y deal and Zucc will stand there with nothing. I understand the notion that it’s tough to give up two 1sts in a row. Benn and Seguin got many years left for them and they can’t look at this as a 2-3 year window. Their D core is young. They have drafted and developed well lately. But it’s not an easy call.

 

[bl02]

Would be interesting to here which 4 of the following kids that he has as ‘tier 3’:
Turcotte
Newhook
Zegras
Byram
Podkolzin
Broberg
Boldy
Caufield
Cozens
Dach
Knight

He mentioned newhook and Suzuki as tier 3. And broberg just outside top 10 so tier 3.
tier 2 turcotte (Chicago) . He also mentioned zegras tier 2. Caufield definitely grabbed in top 10 (tier 2). Also had Knight as first round.

 

[Ranger Ric]

This tweet is of potential interest:



Both Burdasov and Tkachev have been linked to the Rangers. Tkachev was scheduled to attend Rangers camp in 2017 and Burdasov linked to Rangers in this thread:

Top KHL Players for the 2019 UFA Market

Vladimir Tkachyov at eliteprospects.com
Anton Burdasov at eliteprospects.com

 

[Ola]

Just for he record, I think it’s almost a bit suicidal to deal a 1st round pick a year and a half before it can be made. Sure their top forwards play great and between Klingberg and Heiskanen they could have the best 1-2 duo on the blueline in the entire NHL fairly soon. The West is also pretty weak.

But in today’s league the marginals are so small, if some teams improve in the West and a couple of others have good years like NYI and MTL have in the east this season — some good teams will miss the POs. 1-2 bad injuries, especially if you are tired from a long POs, all of a sudden you get a bad start and things can really go sour.

That pick could definitely be a lottery pick, and who knows where it will end up. People didn’t have LA or Chicago missing the POs 18 months ago either.

 

[Ola]

This tweet is of potential interest:



Both Burdasov and Tkachev have been linked to the Rangers. Tkachev was scheduled to attend Rangers camp in 2017 and Burdasov linked to Rangers in this thread:

Top KHL Players for the 2019 UFA Market

Vladimir Tkachyov at eliteprospects.com
Anton Burdasov at eliteprospects.com

How do we know which Tkachyov this tweet refers to? The small or big one?

Great find BTW!!!

 

[TheBloodyNine]

He mentioned newhook and Suzuki as tier 3. And broberg just outside top 10 so tier 3.
tier 2 turcotte (Chicago) . He also mentioned zegras tier 2. Caufield definitely grabbed in top 10 (tier 2). Also had Knight as first round.

He's guessing Chicago goes with Turcotte?

 

[Fitzy]

Tkachev had a bit of a down year offensively if I recall.

KHL to NHL projections are always noisy, though.

 

[bl02]

He's guessing Chicago goes with Turcotte?

I was at work so listening on my phone but he did make mention that made sense that he went to Chicago at 3. He mentioned he played a lot of his hockey in Chicago

 

[Ranger Ric]

Ola: the link to Russian prospects on my initial post says the big one resigned in the khl so I am pretty sure the one coming over is the small one

He did have a down year. Not sure why since numbers before last year were pretty consistent.

How do we know which Tkachyov this tweet refers to? The small or big one?

Great find BTW!!!

How do we know which Tkachyov this tweet refers to? The small or big one?

Great find BTW!!!

 

[offdacrossbar]

gut tells me that with the fox signing, its forwards and more forwards on draft day 1

that defensive stockpile is getting pretty tall

time to add some speed and talent to the forward pool

 

[Ola]

Tkachev had a bit of a down year offensively if I recall.

KHL to NHL projections are always noisy, though.

Yeah, all stats are noisy as hell and especially Euro scoring since ice time is much more evenly distributed and the pro level can be pretty low scoring.

Some bad teams can have one good line (here we can literary be talking of 4-5 players taking up half your budget and in some cases more than that), and that line naturally get every opportunity and top PP time. Like the environment Dawes has been in. On the other side of the spectrum you can have a team that is fairly deep and and just keep rolling their personnel.

I’ve not seen that much of Tkachev the last while, maybe someone else can chip in what kind of role he has had the last season?

He is a good player, but the KHL game can be pretty stretched out and Ds backs down a lot keeping the gap. When I’ve caught a glimpse of him here and there he hasn’t been super noticeable, so many shifts where neither team gives up much — nor — really push he buttons to give a skilled guy like Tkachev a shot at doing much. Teams don’t break out really fast, but the defending team OTOH don’t take big risks on the blueline and certainly falls early. You don’t often see those fast breaks when a forward streaks down against a D in a tough spot. Instead the forwards often starts from pretty crappy situations.

I like his skill and it’s not hard to see why we have been a bit interested in him before, but I can’t really put forth an educated guess whether he would thrive more on the smaller ice and how he can handle checking duties etc. But that is the hope I have, that he will fit better on the smaller ice and the faster game in which you will blow things open a lot more of you can do your man.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

gut tells me that with the fox signing, its forwards and more forwards on draft day 1

that defensive stockpile is getting pretty tall

time to add some speed and talent to the forward pool

Still need size on the right and a guy who projects to be a top ceiling two way guy. Don’t have either yet.

 

[Ola]

Still need size on the right and a guy who projects to be a top ceiling two way guy. Don’t have either yet.

Yeah, wouldn’t mind Kaedan Korzcak for that RD role one bit.

I am more skeptical about drafting that top LD guy. First of all, these guys on average — ie the top LDs in the league — get within 90% of their peak performance at 24-25 and keep that up until they are 33-34, on average. There are not many No 1-2 LDs in this league 22 or younger. How many are we talking about, 3-4 in the entire league? 5-6? Of 62. You can’t bank on them arriving within D+1-4, that is in fact tremendously unusual.

And the background most have is that they just have grown into the role.

I don’t know, I just think the odds of striking gold is really low if you start to fish among those smaller fairly skilled LDs like Heinola and co. First of all they must develop extremely well, but they must also have a perfect perfect ride for their first 6-8 years after getting drafted. Getting big roles that pose the perfect challenge for them that they can grow into while keeping building up their confidence.

And when we are talking about holes, there are about 10x more of them up front...

 

[DutchShamrock]

What's more palatable? Having Zuccarello for a playoff run at the 1st and 3rd price, or Zuccarello for a playoff run and 3+ seasons for two 1sts?

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

What's more palatable? Having Zuccarello for a playoff run at the 1st and 3rd price, or Zuccarello for a playoff run and 3+ seasons for two 1sts?

If you think you’re a legitimate cup contender, the latter

Edit: Granted, Dallas knew that was a possibility and agreed to it, but they paid their price to get their guy

 

[Joey Bones]

So if the Canes go to the ECF, Jets pick moves to 20 right? Jackets too then 19?

Yes and if the Canes, Jackets and Avs move on it could be No. 18. Doesn't matter what Dallas does, however, we would honestly want the Stars to move on for their 1st rounder!!

Edit: Beat to the punch, as per usual lolol

 

[Joey Bones]

You and me both. Am hoping against hope that the Jets pick is 18 and the Dallas pick becomes a 1st. I think those two bullets give the best chance for Gorton to nab someone if the slide to the 12-15 range. Not necessarily the picks by themselves, but some sort of a package.

Sadly, I do not see a way to get into the 6-8 range where the possibilities of a Byram exist. I don't think the makes it past 5, but have given up dreaming about him anchoring the top pairing. Kakko is not a bad consolation prize however.

Kakko is a great get. Hearing what McKenzie has stated with defensemen going early, might truly mean that a forward like Zegras, Cozens, C. Caufield do fall down the line. Not so much for Byram, though. I agree he won't fall out of the top 5. I really think that'll be Chicago's pick.

 

[Joey Bones]

leading his team in PO points says otherwise. Lovejoy and Spezza both come off the books, that's 10mil not including the cap increase. I bet he signs a 3 year deal in Dallas. Zucc is a loyal Labrador and a player that can contribute up and down the lineup. If he gets a full season with Benn or Seguin he might very well have his best seasons in front of him.

The way he's been playing with Hintz and Dickinson, they might as well give Zucc the reigns to have the youngsters succeed!!

 

[Joey Bones]

I'm not sure they're up for giving away two first round picks...if they make it to the WCF and owe the Rangers a pick, part of me thinks that makes it less likely the re-sign Zucc. It's tough to give away two firsts like that. But maybe getting that far convinces them that they have a contending window and they're comfortable going all in. Hard to say. Coming away with two firsts from the Zucc trade would be pretty great even if they're late firsts

Rangers did it for 5 seasons. I don't think it's that hard for a team, like Dallas, that's been mediocre for years....

 

[Joey Bones]

 

[egelband]

Honestly, I would be happy to draft at 31 instead of 28 if it means Zucc gets a cup and we get Dallas's 1st next year too.

Me too. And I generally don't feel this way. But in this case I would be thrilled to see Zucc hoist the Cup. Maybe partially because my boy, just getting into hockey, has taken a major shine to Zucc.

 

[Kovalev27]

If newhook is tier 3 (he’s not) we would be fools not to go get him.

 

[egelband]

If the Stars aren’t interested in giving up 2 first round picks why did they agree to a deal when that was a possibility? Why not just one conditional?

Dallas ain’t a rebuilding team. They are a win now team. If they cared that much about their first round picks then they wouldn’t have agreed to these conditions, and further Gorton wouldn’t have accepted a deal if he didn’t think it was a distinct possibility.

True. They're very much built to win-now if at all. Zucc makes plenty of sense for them. And if he likes it there I think the negotiations aren't grueling. He may/should see what kind of offers he gets on the open market though.