Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Beacon]

gut tells me that with the fox signing, its forwards and more forwards on draft day 1

that defensive stockpile is getting pretty tall

time to add some speed and talent to the forward pool

Do you remember how we had young Staal, Girardi and especially MDZ, who were already good and will only improve? Rosie still serviceable. Mcdonagh, Sauer, Valentenko (loved by this forum), Kyndratek, a few others. In the end, Rosie was traded for garbage Wolski; Staal and Girardi got worse, not better; MDZ turned out to be crap; all prospects besides Mcdonagh became busts.

Defensemen bust a lot, much more than forwards, though more rare than goalies. You need a lot of high quantity to wind up with 1 top pair guy.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Do you remember how we had young Staal, Girardi and especially MDZ, who were already good and will only improve? Rosie still serviceable. Mcdonagh, Sauer, Valentenko (loved by this forum), Kyndratek, a few others.in the end, Rosie was traded for garbage Frolov; Staal and Girardi got worse, not better; MDZ turned out to be crap; all prospects besides Mcdonagh became busts.

Defensemen bust a lot, much more than forwards, though not as rare as among goalies. You need a lot of high quantity to wind up with 1 top pair guy.

Rozsival was traded for Frolov???

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Rozsival was traded for Frolov???

No, Wojtek Wolski actually.

 

[Ola]

Do you remember how we had young Staal, Girardi and especially MDZ, who were already good and will only improve? Rosie still serviceable. Mcdonagh, Sauer, Valentenko (loved by this forum), Kyndratek, a few others.in the end, Rosie was traded for garbage Frolov; Staal and Girardi got worse, not better; MDZ turned out to be crap; all prospects besides Mcdonagh became busts.

Defensemen bust a lot, much more than forwards, though not as rare as among goalies. You need a lot of high quantity to wind up with 1 top pair guy.

One aspect to consider though is that Torts really did not lay the foundation with these guys. He did a good job pushing Ds that 'had it' into a territory in which they could function on a nightly basis, like with Stralman. But its also important to remember that Stralsy was like a 12 points defender under Torts, while easily having 40 pts talent.

But with guys like Staal and Girardi and the younger up and comers, his total focus on having a defense that never made a turnover in their own end, or lost a puck long any of the lines, just ruined these guys passing game. Few will remember this, but when Girardi came up to the NHL the first time -- even before that in his first camps when he impressed everyone a lot -- one of his bigger strengths was his play with the puck. Those short passes. It was talked about a lot, its too bad that the history of this board has been lost and we can't find those older posts. Then when Torts came in, him and Staal and co totally bought into what Torts preached and led the way in that regard, which is great. A player cannot rebellion against a coach.

And those five seasons under Torts really limited these guys passing game. McDonagh became a different D over night after Torts had left, but for Staal and Girardi it was more or less too late to recover. It also hurt many of the up and coming younger Ds who focused on the wrong things. I think Torts has changed a bit and lets his Ds play a little more nowadays. But he kept pushing what worked before the 05' lock-out really hard into the 2010s. That was just not good.

Why is this relevant? Why do I bring this up? Because I think that -- to a large extent -- we have to build our blueline from within. Work with what we have. Just because Staal and Girardi was left in a horrible state after 5 years of Torts -- we can't assume that Ds that we have will do the same.

 

[Ola]

You know who is the best bet to become our No 1 LD in the future? Someone we draft? Someone we trade for? Nope, its certainly Brady Skjei. He just turned 25 the other day. The normal curve is that these guys enter their prime around 24-25, Skjei is a little behind that.

If we look at the Norris Trophy winners, everyone would have laughed at the notion that 12 of the last 20 Norris Trophy winners ever would win it when they were 24-25 y/o. Scott Neidermayer was a really good No 3 for NJ. If you in 97 states that Neidermayer will win a Norris 5-6 years later its a joke, people would have said that guys like Blake and Leetch and the likes win Norris Trophies, they are totally dominant, Neidermayer is good but not great. Nik Lidström? OK no 3 for Detroit up until he was like 25-26 for Detroit. Same thing there, everyone would have said that he didn't have any of the elite abilities you need to have to win a Norris. What is the response to a statement if someone is saying that the 2nd round pick being a 2nd pairing D for a worthless team in Chicago, just having scored 2+29 in 82 games despite being 24 y/o, would win a Norris later in his career? When Duncan Keith was 22 y/o, he scored 26 pts in 75 games -- in the AHL. How about Brett Burns, everyone surely saw that he would be a Norris winner when he was 24-25? In fact, he was not even playing as a defender in most games of the 08-09 season.

And no matter how you slice it and dice it, with defenders the actual results are always the same, its just not the above mentioned guys. If we look at the top scoring Ds its even more significant. A very significant portion of them takes a really long road to get to what they eventually became. That road often has the same ingredients. Guys that played a long time at the same place, could grow a little on a year by year basis. And then their team eventually improved pretty fast and they just tagged along that improvement, or guys ahead of them on the depth chart left and they could just step up and assume the top role on an already loaded team.

There are of course no guarantees, but I do think that its important to remember that building a blueline is a totally different animal than building 4 forward lines. Looking back at drafts, its very easy to see that being talented when you are 18 often means that you will become a very good top 4 D, but to take the next step and become more likes top 30-40 -- the road is so much longer and the talented kids basically manage to walk that as often as the average kid at 18, that got the benefit in the numbers being so many of them.

So Skjei might not be a great bet, but he is certainly the best bet we have to become a future No 1 LD. And I don't think that change if we like bring in a Broberg or York or someone like that. You need to really take care and invest in what you have on the blueline. And its surely the worst idea ever to have a bunch of vets on your blueline while you rebuild that are planning for their retirement at the end of the rebuild at which time you hope that a bunch of kids will be able to jump in and lead the way (hello Staal, Smith and Shatty). If we want a blueline in 3-4 years, we must start to build it -- in NY -- like yesterday. We can't wait 2 more years.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Let's get him!

 

[Mikos87]

yep.

kid tries hard. strong motor. determined and very high compete level it seems. hes a passionate player with a strong work ethic. his floor is very high. defensive forward who competes. hell play in the nhl.

problem i have, there may not be the high end skills there. his goals seem to all come off the rush on individual plays- some of them high lite worthy. i fear there isn't another level though. there isnt that high hockey skill that translates into production. he goes dark for long stretches too often.

i see a kid who's a mid 1st rounder. not much more.

sadly, to me, hes a faster, russian version of lias andersson.

I'd say he's going to be a very solid player. IMO I'd say he's a plus version of Cogliano. More power, slightly less speed.

 

[Mikos87]

That sounds like the average top-six player of this era.

Which is fine. Exactly what teams need. Just not a long shelf life imo. I think he's a safe pick.

 

[Mikos87]

Krebs seems like a typical HF crush that ends up being a tweener at best.

Get a strong Ryan Strome vibe from Krebs.

I see Sam Bennet. He's on a bad team, fine... But not hitting 20 goals in the dub? As a scorer whose going top 10?

Players score on perimeter shots in that league and that's granting not every team is Everett.

 

[Draft Guru]

Huge pass on Krebs.

Can see him falling to the 12-15 range.

And I still wouldn't be comfortable picking him.

 

[True Blue]

gut tells me that with the fox signing, its forwards and more forwards on draft day 1

that defensive stockpile is getting pretty tall

time to add some speed and talent to the forward pool

Day 1, yes. There could be a RHD in round 2.

 

[Beacon]

Rozsival was traded for Frolov???

I mixed him up with Wolski. Same garbage.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Day 1, yes. There could be a RHD in round 2.

yeah i see a dman flyer later perhaps.

that pond is pretty full right now though. gotta believe there's a few keepers in there somewhere.

fox makes it a slam dunk imo. forwards heavy day 1 after kakko at 2.

moving up into the top 10 seems unlikely. into that 10-14 range will still be a long shot. perhaps a trade and a pick gets it done to move up a few spots to take the best forward still on the board.

names like newhook- hopefully but doubtful, krebs- maybe, kaliyev- probably , lavoie- universally disliked here, brink and leason and a few of the euro dmen esp. bjornfot and thomson.

 

[True Blue]

names like newhook- hopefully but doubtful, krebs- maybe, kaliyev- probably , lavoie- universally disliked here, brink and leason and a few of the euro dmen esp. bjornfot and thomson.

I think that they can get Brink with the Jets pick without moving up.

Having the Jets pick be at 18 and having the Dallas pick be another first rounder, would arm Gorton with pretty big bullets that can be used to move up reasonably to get someone that is falling.

Day 2, Sieder will be gone by the time the Rangers draft. But if the Dallas pick is a 2nd, I could see a Korzac, which would be a solid choice right there. 58, I am still hoping for a Beecher. Maybe a Valentin or Hogslander.

 

[offdacrossbar]

I think that they can get Brink with the Jets pick without moving up.

Having the Jets pick be at 18 and having the Dallas pick be another first rounder, would arm Gorton with pretty big bullets that can be used to move up reasonably to get someone that is falling.

Day 2, Sieder will be gone by the time the Rangers draft. But if the Dallas pick is a 2nd, I could see a Korzac, which would be a solid choice right there. 58, I am still hoping for a Beecher. Maybe a Valentin or Hogslander.

moving up a few spots is doable. brink may well be there at 18.

if dallas advances, then that changes things. if the peg pick is indeed 18, same. then we can do stuff.

kakko and another top 10 pick and im pretty stoked.

if we move into the top 10 and we come away with kakko and zegras or newhook or even caufield tho i prefer a centerman, im thinking we did as well as anyone on day 1 with just 2 picks.

day 2 im all in on euro talent. a falling bjornfot or lassi thomson are good plays here. maybe doro and the other russian, nikolayev. i like the slovak cajkovic later as well.

 

[True Blue]

doro and the other russian, nikolayev.

Like them both but thought the Rangers had a better chance to nab either at 37 rather later on round 2.

 

[Off Sides]

I like Tomasino should he be there with the Jets pick

 

[Joey Bones]

With obvious names potentially falling, I think there’s good merit to also put Bjornfot with the Winnipeg pick. He’s excellent at all sides of the ice. Very underrated, IMO, and wouldn’t mind the “reach”!!

 

[Joey Bones]

As per elite prospects....

Lassi Thomson will be playing with Ilves in Liiga next season. Moving on from the WHL after just one year.

 

[Beacon]

To be honest, getting the Dallas first and Fox could justify things going both ways, depending on what people prefer in the first place.

OPTION 1: If you get the third first rounder, we have so many picks, we are good, why trade Kreider or lesser players (Names, Vesey, Fast)?

OPTION 2: Stay the course that already showed so much promise. Get the 4th first rounder this June and then without Kreider (or MZA or Hayes), probably a top-5 pick next year. Double up on what works. Hoard so much talent that we can afford a few busts and injuries, and will still win multiple Cups.

 

[Bluenote13]

As per elite prospects....

Lassi Thomson will be playing with Ilves in Liiga next season. Moving on from the WHL after just one year.

He's definitely going to the Ducks at #28

 

[Ola]

One player that I think could be a really good value pick -- if the rankings we see out there are correct -- is Raphael Lavoie.

You get a lot of hockey in a player if you take that kid.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

One player that I think could be a really good value pick -- if the rankings we see out there are correct -- is Raphael Lavoie.

You get a lot of hockey in a player if you take that kid.

Interesting thought.

I see a lot of prognosticators down on him – but it appears as if this is mostly out of a fear that he'll get picked over one of the other "name" centers by a team that falls in love with his size. But if you can get him after Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Zegras, and Newhook are all gone...? Say, around pick 28?

That's a very intriguing possibility, IMO.

 

[Edge]

Interesting thought.

I see a lot of prognosticators down on him – but it appears as if this is mostly out of a fear that he'll get picked over one of the other "name" centers by a team that falls in love with his size. But if you can get him after Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Zegras, and Newhook are all gone...? Say, around pick 28?

That's a very intriguing possibility, IMO.

I like him better as a pick in the late first than I do in the top 15, or even top 20.

I think he becomes a more interesting prospect if you go in with the right expectations.

As a line driver and potential core player, as he once projected? Eh, don't see it.

As a support guy who might find a niche as guy who pops in some points and can bring skill to a third line (maaaaaybe a second line)? Yeah, that's possible.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I like him better as a pick in the late first than I do in the top 15, or even top 20.

I think he becomes a more interesting prospect if you go in with the right expectations.

As a line driver and potential core player, as he once projected? Eh, don't see it.

As a support guy who might find a niche as guy who pops in some points and can bring skill to a third line (maaaaaybe a second line)? Yeah, that's possible.

Exactly. Strikes me as a guy who could profile as a middle sixer who performs well in the POs.