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Speculation: Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part IX (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

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pblawr said:
I've posted this before, but if you look at Clarke's record in aggregate I think it's actually very good:

2006: Sanguinetti was a miss, but there were only 7 players picked after him (Giroux, Varlamov, Foligno, Lucic, Anisimov, Marchand, and Perreault) who became top 6 players and the Rangers drafted one of them. I would actually argue that the Rangers did better than they should have been expected to this year

2007: Cherepanov was a fantastic pick in the first. After Antoine Lafluer in the 2nd, there were only 8 real NHL players (Simmonds, Killorn, Alec Martinez, Benn, Muzzin, Maroon, Hagelin, and Bonino) and the Rangers got one of them despite not having a 3rd or a 4th round pick. Between Cherepanov and Hagelin, this strikes me as a great draft.

2008: The Rangers picked 3 guys who have played over 400 NHL games in Del Zotto, Stepan, and Dale Weise. The only players picked after Del Zotto who were clearly better were Carlson, Josi, Stepan, Nyqist, Spurgeon, and Atkinson and Stepan was arguably the best of them. This also strikes me as a great draft.

2009: The Kreider pick was fantastic. Ryan O'Reilly is probably the only guy you would take ahead of him in that spot if you had a do-over. Again, a great draft.

2010: This was a bad draft

2011: The only guys you would have taken over Miller in a redraft were Rakell, William Karlsson, Kucherov, Trocheck, Gaudreau, and Palat, and all but one of them were taken after the 1st round, ie. every other team in the NHL passed on them too. Again, a great draft.

2012: The only guys you would have taken over Skjei in a redraft were Gostisbehere (arguably) and Parayko. Everyone else was worse. And the Rangers only had 4 picks. Again, great.

2013: After the Rangers first pick, the 6 best players drafted were Pesce, Buchnevich, Guentzel, Will Butcher, Bjorkstrand, and Duclair, and the Rangers got 2 of them. This was a fantastic draft.

2014: Out of the 151 players picked after the Rangers took Halverson, there are only 2-3 guys, Brayden Point, Victor Arvidsson, and Danton Heinen, who have turned into valuable NHL'ers, and 2 more guys, Sorokin and Shestyorkin, who project as top prospects. It seems to me like the Rangers did pretty well to get one of those in Shestyorkin. Similar to 2006, I would argue the Rangers did better than they should been expected to.

2015: After the Rangers picked Gropp, Sprong and Kaprizov are the only guys who are still big time prospects out of the next 170 picks. Ideally, you'd like to be more out of a draft, but with a roughly 1-in-85 chance of a pick turning into something valuable, it's tough to argue the Rangers should have done better.

2016: Rykov and Jesper Bratt are the only guys I think you could argue would have clearly been better picks than the Rangers first pick, Sean Day.

The 2017 & 2018 drafts are too early to judge (and to be honest, the 2015 & 2016 drafts are too), but for the 11 drafts above:

- 6 were great, 2 were better than expected, 2 were what you would have expected and only one was bad based on the picks that the Rangers had
- Outside of 2010, there isn't one case where it's clear that the Rangers didn't come away with one of the 10 best players available at their first pick, and in 2007, 2008, and 2013, the Rangers came away with 2 of the 10 best players available at their first pick
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Slavin and arguably Lindell and Athanasieou or how ever you spell it.

for 2016? Mete is already an NHL regular, Lajoie looked pretty good in his short stint with the Sens too.

OTOH, it's crazy how we went from having like no picks in 2016 to having a ton of guys from that draft who either are already playing in this league or have a really good shot at doing so:

Howden, Hajek, Lindgren, Fox, Reunanen, Rykov. Gettinger has an outside shot at turning into something halfway decent too.

Almost all of those players aren't our guys, but the staff did a really good job back filling that draft specifically.
 
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Bluenote13 said:
More than what Mcilrath brought back.

Gordie has an awful track record when it comes to drafting big guys: Rupp, Mezei, Kudroc, Mcilrath, etc.
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More or not, it wasn’t anything significant or anything that dramatically changed the fate of those teams, which makes your point moot.
 
Bluenote13 said:
More than what Mcilrath brought back.

Gordie has an awful track record when it comes to drafting big guys: Rupp, Mezei, Kudroc, Mcilrath, etc.
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That’s why it throws me that 2/3 of the board is clamoring for Seider. Big defenseman... skates well for his size... add to that where he plays...

Idk, maybe he’s a future top pairing guy but I’d rather swing for the talent in a higher/more established league with a longer track record.
 
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I think Gordie Clark is firmly in the “above average” camp. He’s found some quality players late, but he’s also whiffed on his fair share of picks. He’s added nice talent, but hasn’t ever unearthed the star talent (fair, or not).

I’m comfortable with him leading the draft, but I won’t say that we are the luckiest team in the sport either.
 
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Edge said:
Not gonna lie, not keen on Lavoie at 20, and even less inclined to trade up for him.

There’s just...a lot of elements there that have me uneasy.
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You and me both. With that in mind, though, I wouldn't be upset if he was NYR's pick at No. 20. He has a sense for scoring goals and can use his body well in the offensive zone. It's more of the unengaged aspect of neutral play and defense that worry me. When the puck isn't on his stick he looks uninterested. Keep in mind, as well, this was through his seasonal play. I haven't kept up enough to gauge his playoff run he's on.
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
After having seen 30-ish games of him this season I am not wasting a top-10 pick on Podkolzin. And the Rangers should not go for a defenseman at 20. I understand the whole "Go BPA" thing but at some point organizational need has to play a role. We have 3(!) unsigned forward prospects at the moment: Morgan Barron, Lauri Pajuniemi and Riley Hughes. We desperately need to restock the shelves in that department
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You don't think NYR would sign Virta?
 
Bluenote13 said:
Yeah but at least Yzerman and Poile were able to recoup their losses with trades involving those guys that brought back assets that helped those teams.

Mcilrath was a waste of a top ten pick, AND he didn't return ANY resale value.
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McIlrath recently signed a 2 year extension in Detroit. Could've finally found a place to call home....
 
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Joey Bones said:
You and me both. With that in mind, though, I wouldn't be upset if he was NYR's pick at No. 20. He has a sense for scoring goals and can use his body well in the offensive zone. It's more of the unengaged aspect of neutral play and defense that worry me. When the puck isn't on his stick he looks uninterested. Keep in mind, as well, this was through his seasonal play. I haven't kept up enough to gauge his playoff run he's on.
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I fully admit that there comes a point where the potential juice is worth the squeeze. Is that point at the 20th pick? Eh, not for me. There will be talent on the board I like significantly more at that point (and higher).

If the Jets pick remained in the 26-28 range, or if we had Tampa first? Yeah, I'd take him into consideration.
 
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Edge said:
I fully admit that there comes a point where the potential juice is worth the squeeze. Is that point at the 20th pick? Eh, not for me. There will be talent on the board I like significantly more at that point (and higher).

If the Jets pick remained in the 26-28 range, or if we had Tampa first? Yeah, I'd take him into consideration.
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Agreed. There are some players I'd prefer at No. 20. I think he still goes in the teens, though.
 
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offdacrossbar said:
clearly i remember dylan mcilrath
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Bad response. No one reasonable would fire clark bc of that onepick bc we had way too much success with our picks in totality at the time.

Now starting around 2014? That's a different story. We had an abysmal run for awhile there. We also lacked high picks. As bad as those years were I love the last two
 
Joey Bones said:
You and me both. With that in mind, though, I wouldn't be upset if he was NYR's pick at No. 20. He has a sense for scoring goals and can use his body well in the offensive zone. It's more of the unengaged aspect of neutral play and defense that worry me. When the puck isn't on his stick he looks uninterested. Keep in mind, as well, this was through his seasonal play. I haven't kept up enough to gauge his playoff run he's on.
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Sounds like a younger Kreider.
 
Bluenote13 said:
I don't agree with your total impression of Gordie, but I do agree the reverberations of that draft are still happening in the league right now. Where would the Blues be right now without the 2010 draft?

I don't really have too many problems with Gordie Clark still being in this position I have a lot more faith in the other guys around him these days.
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I think the scouting staff in general is really damn good. They've assembled a great group of minds.
 
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