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Donato

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BobbyJet said:
And stats never tell the real story. When Hawks need a goal or the team needs a shot in the arm to get going, it is Donato who I want on the ice.
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his skating speed looks improved and it was reported that was what he was working on last off season
 
Flahawkfan said:
Let me say upfront I am not Ryan Donatos' agent. I am also in no way related to RD so I am only offereing my opinion. So I read from the many fans we have on the board and I noticed a narrative re: Donato. This year is a career year/anomaly. He is closing in on 50 points which is much higher than the typical approximate 30 points he typically gets. This is where the anomaly talk comes from. Easy to spot, easy to identify the "what".

But as a stat geek, I want to know the "Why". In other words how can we repeat this?

Looking over RD stats (overall career, it is not easily recognizable), but he has averaged approx .75 points over 3 different seasons with 3 different teams. (Those of you clamoring for Bennett he has never done this with the exception of the 10 games when he first came to the panters in 20-21.). I am not comparing the two different style as players, but I am saying RD has exceeded .72 points per game 3 times in his career while Sam Bennett has never done this except for 10 games when he came to Florida.

That still doesn't give us a "why" RD has done this 3X in his career. Looking deeper you start to look at his deployment. As a fourth liner, you would expect him to get 9-12 minutes of icetime per game. As a 3rd liner that would bump up from 12-15 minutes a game. As a second liner probably from 15-18 minutes a game. A top liner would be expected to get 18-21 - For reference Bedard is at 20:23 this season.

Looking over RD entire career there is a correlation of when he plays 14:42 minutes to 15:38 he averages over .72 points per game. This happened 3X in his career:
1) With Boston in 2017-2018 he played 12 games, had 9 points and averaged 14;42 in ice time. This is .75 points per game.
His ice time dropped the following season in 2018-2019 to 12:30 over 34 games and his point production dropped to a modest .26 per game.

2) He was traded to Minnesota late in the 18-19 season and played 22 games for the Wild , had 16 points with an average ice time of 15:33. Points per game .727.
Floats around a few more years with other teams but never gets more than 13:48 in ice time for a year (.42 points per game).

3) Comes to the Blackhawks for 23-24 season and gets 14 minutes a game. Averages .38 points per game. This season his deployment improves as he is getting second line minutes most nights at 15:38 and he is averaging .76 points per game.

I don't have a crystal ball but I see a correlation and a potential "why" he is doing well this season. Maybe this isn't an anomaly and just a coach who may have figured out RD should be a middle 6 forward with about 15-16 minutes a game in icetime. Similar to how it took them 50 plus games to realize Broadie should not be on the bench.
Lastly, this same analysis shows similar results with Reichel (much less data) but his one season with 16:22 average icetime he averaged .66 points per game (23 games). Since then his ice time has dropped and so has his production - Not suprising.
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Thank you for this perspective for sure, I appreciate it.

Those are very small sample sizes though unfortunately.

As a fan on re-signing him, I think there is merit it having his minutes be middle six type and not relegated to the 4th line.

But also, consistent deployment is rarely an outlier. If coaches have a tendency to reduce his minutes at each stop, than it's because he's not a top 6 guy most likely.

I think he's somewhere in the middle. Not as good as he is now, but better than given credit for before this year.

Im excited to see what he doesn't for us in the future hopefully. That line of TT - Donato - Mikheyev is fun, and I want to see it next year too.
 
If KD expects to overpay to resign Donato then why not trade him for an asset and then overpay him in the summer?

Everyone knows KD will overpay for vet free agents in the summer - he’s been doing it every year he’s been GM.

As for only receiving a mid rd pick for Donato - I call BS. Second and first rd picks were being thrown around like crazy for worse players. There’s no way KD was not offered a second rd pick. A second rd pick could have helped him move up in the first rd which he does every year, while still keeping the other 2rd picks for selections.
 
Haven't seen this posted. It's from Powers' latest article:

Ryan Donato has had an offer on the table from the Blackhawks since the trade deadline. Now what?

The offer is believed to be three years with a $4 million annual cap hit. Donato didn’t jump at the deal at the deadline, which probably makes sense on his side. There was no reason to rush into it. It doesn’t sound like he and the Blackhawks have negotiated since then, but you would think that changes between now and free agency.

The Blackhawks would like him back, but don’t want to be tied to any veteran for too long. Donato seems to seek stability. Maybe there’s a way for both sides to get what they want, or at least for the Blackhawks to make it financially even more worth his while.
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www.nytimes.com

Ryan Donato’s value, Tyler Bertuzzi’s hot/cold meter, Connor Bedard’s instincts: 10 thoughts

Chicago pulled off a badly needed home win by putting seven goals past Flyers goalie Ivan Fedotov.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

I would very fine with that deal.
 
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Hawkaholic said:
Yeah, thats a decent deal. Donato would be dumb to pass it up.
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We'll find out. With only 10 or 11 games left, it's probably better for him to hit the open market and see what else is out there. If nothing is better, he can always sign the 3 X 4M or whatever is on the table from the Hawks. The only way his value goes down at this point is if he has a catastrophic injury.
 
3 X 4M seems light for a guy coming off what might be a 30 goal and 60 point season.

Especially with a huge cap increase.

I’d be shocked if that’s all he got.
 
Deputy McRizzy said:
3 X 4M seems light for a guy coming off what might be a 30 goal and 60 point season.

Especially with a huge cap increase.

I’d be shocked if that’s all he got.
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AA scored 30 goals once as well. I think he is looked at as more of AVG bottom 6. he is not above AVG really at anything other then effort. size skating shoot, ETC. on a payoff team were does he slot? I look at him as a 3rd liner on a run of the mill team. and on a good team he is a 4th liner but most teams want a little more grit/size on the 4th line.
 
I'm not sure I agree. Every team has decent money to spend this off season and there will only be so many guys to spend it on. Donato seems to be in that prime spot for a GM to make a pretty significant overpay as a backup move.

Guys like Perron, Arvidsson, Zucker, Wennberg, etc all got around 4-5M with the cap being like 7-8M lower. Those guys all have flaws between getting old, being injury prone, or just not all that productive in recent years.

I'd be surprised if 4M even is what he got and would expect closer to 4.75-5M. Not exactly a huge difference with the new cap, but I'd see 4M as his floor.
 
clydesdale line said:
I think Donato will ask for 5 X 5. Which is well within his right. And I think the Hawks should walk away from that and let another team make that mistake.
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Ugh I figured he was going do to that. Should have traded the guy with the ridiculous shooting percentage and no history to back it up.
 
clydesdale line said:
I think Donato will ask for 5 X 5. Which is well within his right. And I think the Hawks should walk away from that and let another team make that mistake.
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Yeah. He can walk for that. I think we offered in the mid 3MM range for 3/4 years so if he wants to explore what teams will give he can always come back to that. No need to overpay him for one good year at 28yo or whatever.
 
Bertuzzi 5.5
Teravainen 5.4
Foligno 4.5
Dickinson 4.25

He doesn't have the pedigree/proven track record of Bert/TT, but is miles ahead of Foligno and Dickinson. I think 4.5 - 5M is fair, for 3-4 years.
 
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Deputy McRizzy said:
I'm not sure I agree. Every team has decent money to spend this off season and there will only be so many guys to spend it on. Donato seems to be in that prime spot for a GM to make a pretty significant overpay as a backup move.

Guys like Perron, Arvidsson, Zucker, Wennberg, etc all got around 4-5M with the cap being like 7-8M lower. Those guys all have flaws between getting old, being injury prone, or just not all that productive in recent years.

I'd be surprised if 4M even is what he got and would expect closer to 4.75-5M. Not exactly a huge difference with the new cap, but I'd see 4M as his floor.
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The difference to me between Donato and those guys is that they all had multiple seasons of legit "scoring line" play - where this was RD's 1st real legit season at 28 YO, on a team where he'd get more opportunity due to LOFT. All the other guys you mentioned were seen as scoring line players.

I do agree that he likely makes more than $4M, especially with the cap going up.
 
Rolo said:
Bertuzzi 5.5
Teravainen 5.4
Foligno 4.5
Dickinson 4.25

He doesn't have the pedigree/proven track record of Bert/TT, but is miles ahead of Foligno and Dickinson. I think 4.5 - 5M is fair, for 3-4 years.
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Noo thank you.

Foligno and Dickinson was a good timing vet payday. That times over.
 
We hired that contract specialist from Minnesota recently IIRC so I’m curious to see what all of our deals look like going forward
 
It’s a simple case of rewarding Donato for a good season with a contract that is more about term, knowing he has a great spot here in Chicago vs MONEY as a UFA…and not the same role/value somewhere else…which is it Ryan? An important player on the Hawks or MONEY?
 
I love Foligno but he served his purpose here. It is probably time for him to retire after this season, does not appear to have much left in the tank and will be 38 next year. He had a solid career, he just got old.
 
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