Donato

[kmwtrucks]

And stats never tell the real story. When Hawks need a goal or the team needs a shot in the arm to get going, it is Donato who I want on the ice.

his skating speed looks improved and it was reported that was what he was working on last off season

 

[Muffinalt]

Let me say upfront I am not Ryan Donatos' agent. I am also in no way related to RD so I am only offereing my opinion. So I read from the many fans we have on the board and I noticed a narrative re: Donato. This year is a career year/anomaly. He is closing in on 50 points which is much higher than the typical approximate 30 points he typically gets. This is where the anomaly talk comes from. Easy to spot, easy to identify the "what".

But as a stat geek, I want to know the "Why". In other words how can we repeat this?

Looking over RD stats (overall career, it is not easily recognizable), but he has averaged approx .75 points over 3 different seasons with 3 different teams. (Those of you clamoring for Bennett he has never done this with the exception of the 10 games when he first came to the panters in 20-21.). I am not comparing the two different style as players, but I am saying RD has exceeded .72 points per game 3 times in his career while Sam Bennett has never done this except for 10 games when he came to Florida.

That still doesn't give us a "why" RD has done this 3X in his career. Looking deeper you start to look at his deployment. As a fourth liner, you would expect him to get 9-12 minutes of icetime per game. As a 3rd liner that would bump up from 12-15 minutes a game. As a second liner probably from 15-18 minutes a game. A top liner would be expected to get 18-21 - For reference Bedard is at 20:23 this season.

Looking over RD entire career there is a correlation of when he plays 14:42 minutes to 15:38 he averages over .72 points per game. This happened 3X in his career:
1) With Boston in 2017-2018 he played 12 games, had 9 points and averaged 14;42 in ice time. This is .75 points per game.
His ice time dropped the following season in 2018-2019 to 12:30 over 34 games and his point production dropped to a modest .26 per game.

2) He was traded to Minnesota late in the 18-19 season and played 22 games for the Wild , had 16 points with an average ice time of 15:33. Points per game .727.
Floats around a few more years with other teams but never gets more than 13:48 in ice time for a year (.42 points per game).

3) Comes to the Blackhawks for 23-24 season and gets 14 minutes a game. Averages .38 points per game. This season his deployment improves as he is getting second line minutes most nights at 15:38 and he is averaging .76 points per game.

I don't have a crystal ball but I see a correlation and a potential "why" he is doing well this season. Maybe this isn't an anomaly and just a coach who may have figured out RD should be a middle 6 forward with about 15-16 minutes a game in icetime. Similar to how it took them 50 plus games to realize Broadie should not be on the bench.
Lastly, this same analysis shows similar results with Reichel (much less data) but his one season with 16:22 average icetime he averaged .66 points per game (23 games). Since then his ice time has dropped and so has his production - Not suprising.

Thank you for this perspective for sure, I appreciate it.

Those are very small sample sizes though unfortunately.

As a fan on re-signing him, I think there is merit it having his minutes be middle six type and not relegated to the 4th line.

But also, consistent deployment is rarely an outlier. If coaches have a tendency to reduce his minutes at each stop, than it's because he's not a top 6 guy most likely.

I think he's somewhere in the middle. Not as good as he is now, but better than given credit for before this year.

Im excited to see what he doesn't for us in the future hopefully. That line of TT - Donato - Mikheyev is fun, and I want to see it next year too.

 

[Hawkey]

If KD expects to overpay to resign Donato then why not trade him for an asset and then overpay him in the summer?

Everyone knows KD will overpay for vet free agents in the summer - he’s been doing it every year he’s been GM.

As for only receiving a mid rd pick for Donato - I call BS. Second and first rd picks were being thrown around like crazy for worse players. There’s no way KD was not offered a second rd pick. A second rd pick could have helped him move up in the first rd which he does every year, while still keeping the other 2rd picks for selections.

 

[Mrfenn92]

My guess is the 3 year offer is around $4 million aav. It won’t reach the Vatrano aav