Do you think this team is better or worse going into next season?

[Nineteen67]

They have Ullmark? I thought they traded for Markstrom? (sp?)

Ullmark Markstrom is a pretty good tandem.

 

[seanlinden]

If Matthews only scored 32 goals they would have still finished in the top half of the league in goals. I am not sure why we have to take away 37 of his goals when assessing up the Leafs offense. If he didn't score all those goals we should assume others might have got a few more too, no? On the PP for example.

The Leafs had five 20 goal guys. One of those with 69 and the other with 40. Two more guys on pace for 20 and Knies.

Why are we calling this offense lean?

Because nearly all of the goals come with Matthews, Marner, Tavares or Nylander on the ice; and they basically never play as 3 separate lines.

Yes, the Leafs had 8 players that paced above 20 goals, but the reality is, the only one that actually put up any meaningful number of goals while NOT playing on a top-2 line was Nick Robertson... and it's clear that the organization doesn't put a ton of trust into him.

The Leafs need to find a way to have a productive 3rd line; and they are in a worse position to do that this year than they were last. Last year, they could put Knies on a 3rd line and have Bertuzzi & McMann in the top 6. This year, Knies is almost certainly going to have to be a top 6 player for them.

There's also the challenge -- one of the reasons they don't ever break the 3 amigos onto 3 separate lines, they really don't have a quality 3rd line centre.

 

[thusk]

The additions were good, but IMO we sacrificed offence for defence and we don't really struggle defensively in the playoffs, so I am a bit confused as to why we went this route

Start to upgrade your D and that will allow to your foward to play a more agressive forechecking and create much more turnover.

better forechecking ------> more turnover on both side----> More space on the ice for your foward to create something-------> more scoring chance -------> higher production

but also mean

bwing more agressive ob forecheck -----> less help for your own D -----> more at risk to giving up great scoring chance ----> so you need good D to don't drastically raise number of goal against

The fact leafs struggle to score in playoff is just a result of lack of faith in the D group who had been overprotected

 

[conFABulator]

Because nearly all of the goals come with Matthews, Marner, Tavares or Nylander on the ice; and they basically never play as 3 separate lines.

Yes, the Leafs had 8 players that paced above 20 goals, but the reality is, the only one that actually put up any meaningful number of goals while NOT playing on a top-2 line was Nick Robertson... and it's clear that the organization doesn't put a ton of trust into him.

The Leafs need to find a way to have a productive 3rd line; and they are in a worse position to do that this year than they were last. Last year, they could put Knies on a 3rd line and have Bertuzzi & McMann in the top 6. This year, Knies is almost certainly going to have to be a top 6 player for them.

There's also the challenge -- one of the reasons they don't ever break the 3 amigos onto 3 separate lines, they really don't have a quality 3rd line centre.

Perhaps it was your choice of words that was the issue. The second highest scoring offense in the league should probably never be described as "lean".

Could it be "top heavy"? Maybe. Could it be better distributed? Possibly. I am not going to look up every team in the NHL, but I imagine you could say these things about many or most teams. You could say that 4 or 5 guys make up a disproportionate amount of their goals, or that the top two lines carry the offensive load.

So, could our offense be better constructed for playoff success? Probably. Is it "lean"? No way.

Also, I would like to see one or both of Marner or Nylander at C. It would solve a lot of issues for this team if could spend our money down the middle rather than on top two lines. Wingers are easier to acquire and develop than centres. We wr paying rh we three $11M each and all have C for experience. Berube should try it this season. Keefe never gave it a go.

Knies Matthews Marner
Jarnkrok Nylander Domi
Robertson Tavares McMann

- or -

Knies Matthews Domi
Tavares Marner McMann
Robertson Nylander Jarnkrok

 

[Menzinger]

Sure it's always a possibility but will depend of how Tanev and oel respond and who is available. I don't think leafs will be as desesperate to find D like they was last 3 years.

But i can see Treliving trying hard for a guy like Rasmus Andersson if he become available like Toronto alreqdy did with Muzzin one year before he hit free agency.

They may also trade it for a forward. I just expect them to trade it

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If Matthews only scored 32 goals they would have still finished in the top half of the league in goals. I am not sure why we have to take away 37 of his goals when assessing up the Leafs offense. If he didn't score all those goals we should assume others might have got a few more too, no? On the PP for example.

The Leafs had five 20 goal guys. One of those with 69 and the other with 40. Two more guys on pace for 20 and Knies.

Why are we calling this offense lean?

Maple Leafs Rank as 8th-Most Improved Team in NHL on The Athletic’s List Despite Minimal Moves​

On top of bringing back Max Domi and Timothy Liljegren, the Leafs’ most notable additions have been Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz in NHL free agency.

Despite making minimal moves, the Toronto Maple Leafs have still addressed their biggest holes found on the blueline and in the crease. While the club brought back forward Max Domi on a four-year, $15 million contract, and re-signed defenseman Timothy Liljegren on a two-year, $6 million contract, their most notable additions were made on the opening day of NHL free agency.

Headlined by Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz, these are key moves that have strengthened the Leafs’ lineup in areas needing the most assistance. In a piece written by Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, though minimal, the Leafs “Look better, and that closes the gap between them and the league’s best considerably”.

Out of the 32 NHL teams, Luszczyszyn has the Leafs ranked 8th with a Net Rating added of +14 – which provides a more comprehensive view of a player's impact beyond traditional statistics and is used to measure a player's overall impact on their team's performance. The ranking focuses primarily on external changes to the roster while balancing out key additions compared to key departures.

The priority from the get-go was to make upgrades defensively, and now, they have arguably their best-looking defensive structure in the ‘Core Four’ era. Though the team has a void to fill with the exit of Bertuzzi, adding upfront over the coming months will be the shifted focus – preferably at the 3C position and a top-six winger.

I'd focus on a 3C because if you a good 3C then you just shift Domi to LW and your top 6 winger issue is solved.

I could see Brock Nelson or Pageau being deadline targets.

 

[Nineteen67]

I'm kind of LOLing at the people who think Berube is going to make this massive difference. You can replace the carrot with a stick, but losers are still losers. I hope he helps a little but it's the guys on the ice who play the game.

The elephant here is the core who’ll play the majority of the minutes and if they’re still disinterested there’s not much the coach can do. He can reduce their ice time and hope the hard workers are capable of winning a round.
If they are interested and are willing to sacrifice to win then they could be a really good team, but I don’t know if thats what they want.

 

[Tak7]

I think people need to move past the idea that the team will simply let Marner walk to free agency. It won't happen. They will either resign him (far and away, in my opinion, the most likely outcome, whether anyone likes it or not) or trade him. If it's the latter, he will be traded for a similar amount of salary. They aren't going to take back prospects and draft picks. In either case, Marner's cap space will be accounted for either by Marner himself or whoever he is traded for.

You perhaps need to spend some time looking into how both Ferris and Treliving operate.

Once the season starts, there's no Marner trade coming. That's it. Treliving rarely does big in-season trades while his team is destined for the playoffs.

And Ferris walks his clients to free agency attempting to establish that his client has all the leverage. He's also bleeding clients, meaning he needs a huge deal off Marner.

Marner isn't getting traded, and this is going to go down to free agency next summer. Thinking otherwise is a pipedream and completely ignores reality.

 

[ACC1224]

You perhaps need to spend some time looking into how both Ferris and Treliving operate.

Once the season starts, there's no Marner trade coming. That's it. Treliving rarely does big in-season trades while his team is destined for the playoffs.

And Ferris walks his clients to free agency attempting to establish that his client has all the leverage. He's also bleeding clients, meaning he needs a huge deal off Marner.

Marner isn't getting traded, and this is going to go down to free agency next summer. Thinking otherwise is a pipedream and completely ignores reality.

I'm not sure of Ferris' client list but I would imagine the Marner situation would be considered unique in comparison.

 

[Nineteen67]

You perhaps need to spend some time looking into how both Ferris and Treliving operate.

Once the season starts, there's no Marner trade coming. That's it. Treliving rarely does big in-season trades while his team is destined for the playoffs.

And Ferris walks his clients to free agency attempting to establish that his client has all the leverage. He's also bleeding clients, meaning he needs a huge deal off Marner.

Marner isn't getting traded, and this is going to go down to free agency next summer. Thinking otherwise is a pipedream and completely ignores reality.

A trade is long shot at this point and once the season starts then it’s not happening at all unless the team is a disaster.

It’s pretty normal situation and Ferris will do what he believes is best for his client.

 

[myleafs]

The fact leafs struggle to score in playoff is just a result of lack of faith in the D group who had been overprotected

So its the defenses fault our high priced talent couldnt score when it counted....good to know....

 

[thusk]

So its the defenses fault our high priced talent couldnt score when it counted....good to know....

It's much more harder trying to break a defensive boxes than scoring in a 2v1 or with a guy all alone in the slot after a turnover... If you're taking risk on forechecking, put pressure and create turnover, you will get much more of those scoring chance.

So if you D forcing you to overprotecting them by taking minimum of risk, you will get minimum of reward.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

I don't agree with your disagree.

You can't separate the intention from the execution. Klingberg was a terrible signing. He had deteriorated so much in the years prior that when I heard we signed him, I thought it would be a 1 x $1.5M type of move. There was no reason to spend our D dollars on him. Right away, I thought "wouldn't Gustafson have been the much better move here?"

If Domi and Bertuzzi were Day One signings I might give him more credit. No one expected Bert to be available for that number on a one year deal on Day Two. Possibly the same could be said for Domi. I really wonder what Tre would have done it those two weren't available.

This season? We were the second highest scoring team in the NHL in the regular season and we lost a FA that got 21 goals. Knies can step into that role and ipossibly improve upon it. Yes McMann can give us what Knies gave us last year. One of the kids can give us what McMann did. We had to open a spot up for Cowan or Grebenkin or Minten and we did. Yes, we are relying on our big guns to be our big guns again. I would very much like to see one of Nylander or Marner moved to C. That's what we need from the big guns

Robertson Matthews Domi
Tavares Marner Knies
Holmberg Nylander McMann
Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok

Let the big guys earn their dollars by playing C and elevating some less expensive wingers. Cowan, Grebenkin and Minten included.

We can say that D was fine last playoff and scoring let us down again. It might be true, but first of all we lost Edmundson, Lyubushkin, Brodie and Giordano. We did a very nice job replacing them. Also, we had terrible goaltending last year and we have improved it (no one can be as bad as Sammy was). Our moves could/should improve the PP and PK and if either of those were better, we beat the B's in R1 last year.

This off-season also includes overhauling the coaching staff. I believe that will help immensely.

Who knows what treliving does if those guys aren’t available, but the fact of the matter were that they were and he got them.

We aren’t going to struggle to score in the regular season, that’s not what I’m saying at all. Matthews will get his 55 or more, Nylander will get his 40, Marner his 30 and Tavares his 25. That alone will keep us out of the bottom range and then the depth will provide some scoring. My issue is with the playoffs, go back and watch the highlights, bertuzzi and domi generated sooo much together (although not much of that went in), but we lost the guy who was going 1 v 3 infront of the net. Marner would be at the point like he always is and domi rover around the ice. We needed to add to our offence and defence (a bit unrealistic I know), but we only did half of that.

Also, You have nylander listed as 3C, which isn’t going to happen. Nylander isn’t a Center so this experiment will fail like it always does

Ditto for Marner at 2X

Let’s say Robertson only wanted out cuz of keefe and we can bring him back, we’d probably run

Domi - Matthews - Nylander
Knies - Tavares - Marner
Robertson - Holmberg - McMann
Dewar - Kampf - Jarnkrok

That bottom six is really bad, it’s 3/6 defensive specialist offensive black holes. Robertson, Jarnkrok and McMann are all goal scorers so who’s playmaking to them?

Marner is going to struggle with JT as he continues to decline, but we have no alternative for 2C. Tavares is ideally a 3/4C on a cup winning team, playing a Jason Spezza role on pp2 and highly sheltered minutes.

Start to upgrade your D and that will allow to your foward to play a more agressive forechecking and create much more turnover.

better forechecking ------> more turnover on both side----> More space on the ice for your foward to create something-------> more scoring chance -------> higher production

but also mean

bwing more agressive ob forecheck -----> less help for your own D -----> more at risk to giving up great scoring chance ----> so you need good D to don't drastically raise number of goal against

The fact leafs struggle to score in playoff is just a result of lack of faith in the D group who had been overprotected

I don’t disagree, but this team has an actual finishing problem from chances

Robertson had probably 5 Grade A chances and none went in. Jarnkrok had 2-3 too, ditto Bert/Domi. We somehow are amazing at hitting the goalie or the post. We need to add players with good shooting and passing sense so that when we do get those turnovers from a forecheck, we can capitalize.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Who knows what treliving does if those guys aren’t available, but the fact of the matter were that they were and he got them.

We aren’t going to struggle to score in the regular season, that’s not what I’m saying at all. Matthews will get his 55 or more, Nylander will get his 40, Marner his 30 and Tavares his 25. That alone will keep us out of the bottom range and then the depth will provide some scoring. My issue is with the playoffs, go back and watch the highlights, bertuzzi and domi generated sooo much together (although not much of that went in), but we lost the guy who was going 1 v 3 infront of the net. Marner would be at the point like he always is and domi rover around the ice. We needed to add to our offence and defence (a bit unrealistic I know), but we only did half of that.

Also, You have nylander listed as 3C, which isn’t going to happen. Nylander isn’t a Center so this experiment will fail like it always does

Ditto for Marner at 2X

Let’s say Robertson only wanted out cuz of keefe and we can bring him back, we’d probably run

Domi - Matthews - Nylander
Knies - Tavares - Marner
Robertson - Holmberg - McMann
Dewar - Kampf - Jarnkrok

That bottom six is really bad, it’s 3/6 defensive specialist offensive black holes. Robertson, Jarnkrok and McMann are all goal scorers so who’s playmaking to them?

Marner is going to struggle with JT as he continues to decline, but we have no alternative for 2C. Tavares is ideally a 3/4C on a cup winning team, playing a Jason Spezza role on pp2 and highly sheltered minutes.


I don’t disagree, but this team has an actual finishing problem from chances

Robertson had probably 5 Grade A chances and none went in. Jarnkrok had 2-3 too, ditto Bert/Domi. We somehow are amazing at hitting the goalie or the post. We need to add players with good shooting and passing sense so that when we do get those turnovers from a forecheck, we can capitalize.

JT is declining no question but he still put up 65 last year, and that was with Tyler Bertuzzi on his line and not scoring for the first 25% of the year.

Calling him 3/4C is a lie he's CLEARLY still a #2 center.

Overpaid? absolutely but that's to be expected going into year 7.

A 3/4C? not even close

 

[Gabriel426]

So its the defenses fault our high priced talent couldnt score when it counted....good to know....

Esp on the PP as they are afraid to give up a SH goal.

 

[Gabriel426]

JT is declining no question but he still put up 65 last year, and that was with Tyler Bertuzzi on his line and not scoring for the first 25% of the year.

Calling him 3/4C is a lie he's CLEARLY still a #2 center.

Overpaid? absolutely but that's to be expected going into year 7.

A 3/4C? not even close

He does have PP1 time and points and when you take those away, his numbers were 3C numbers since 3C usually don’t get PP1 time on other teams.
He also played with Willie while he was on fire that few months.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

JT is declining no question but he still put up 65 last year, and that was with Tyler Bertuzzi on his line and not scoring for the first 25% of the year.

Calling him 3/4C is a lie he's CLEARLY still a #2 center.

Overpaid? absolutely but that's to be expected going into year 7.

A 3/4C? not even close

Firstly, it took a 120 point nylander to get him to that. Nylander had 46 in 32… Tavares had 30. Tavares could play with prime Mcdavid and he wouldn’t be over a ppg.

Secondly, have you seen his playoffs? He’s been a 3C from day one. What he has done for us and what Blake Coleman did for tampa are one and the same. His best career run with us is 8 in 11 that’s a 60 point pace. His leaf average in the playoffs is 52 points, playing with nylander or Marner…that is a high end 3C. He had 2 points in the last series, he was a solid bottom 6C again. What makes you think he isn’t gonna decline harder than that

 

[-DeMo-]

He does have PP1 time and points and when you take those away, his numbers were 3C numbers since 3C usually don’t get PP1 time on other teams.
He also played with Willie while he was on fire that few months.

You might want to re look up those stats his 45 even strength points were 34th in the league among Centers it’s like you took his pp points away and then compared others around him without taking there pp points away…

 

[myleafs]

It's much more harder trying to break a defensive boxes than scoring in a 2v1 or with a guy all alone in the slot after a turnover... If you're taking risk on forechecking, put pressure and create turnover, you will get much more of those scoring chance.

So if you D forcing you to overprotecting them by taking minimum of risk, you will get minimum of reward.

Sorry, but Im not buying that line of thinking. Of course a good defense group will help. Thing is our defense has been fine the last couple of years going into the playoffs and actually preformed pretty good as did our secondary scoring. Every year its the same problem, our top guys can't score when it matters and when you have 47% or is it 53% this yr of the cap invested in 4 forwards who are unable to score once the big dance starts, thats the problem and has been the problem all along.

Matthews a 69 goal scorer has one goal and 6 pts in his last 10 playoff games? marner with 2 goals and 5pts in his last 10....Tavares 1 goal 3pts in his last 10 and Nylander with 5goals and 6 points......that doesn't cut it. How many different ways do we have to change things around the core to get to the place that they are the common denominator in the failure that is the leafs post season? Stop giving them a pass and put the blame where it belongs....the core 4.

 

[Orfieus]

To be blunt, anyone who chooses worse doesn’t know anything about hockey

rrrrrriiiiiigggggghhhhhht

Because having a backup as a Starter and a Starter that gets injured on the slightest touch is a great situation

 

[hotpaws]

You might want to re look up those stats his 45 even strength points were 34th in the league among Centers it’s like you took his pp points away and then compared others around him without taking there pp points away…

JT gets his points leeching off 90 plus point play driving wingers , lets stop acting like he does anything other than hang around the crease/slot waiting to be fed .

hopefully i just have only one more year of reading people making excuses for his play , 6 yrs is more than enough for me !

 

[Sypher04]

rrrrrriiiiiigggggghhhhhht

Because having a backup as a Starter and a Starter that gets injured on the slightest touch is a great situation

Woll was on this team and less experienced last year. Samsonov also turned in one of the worst regular season goaltending performances we’ve seen in the cap era, so you’re going to have to explain to me how we aren’t at least as good as last year and potentially much better.

 

[Leafidelity]

We're calling this offense lean because it is lean come playoffs. You guys are bringing up regular season stats... I simply dont care about regular season stats anymore.

And this group lost a player with 4 points, which was tied for most on the team against the Bruins... it doesn't look pretty.

 

[Acetylene]

Players aside, having a demanding coach will probably help the team improve.

 

[kevsh]

It's a good question. Many will want to compare this team to the one that finished the season last year. I don't think that is reasonable because we haven't had a TDL yet. So, beginning of last season vs what we have now?

Yes, I think we are improved and I think you detailed the reasons why. To summarize.

• Coaching should be an improvement. Just a change in coaching should bring improvement, even if you are not sure the new guys are better
• Goaltending is improved. Woll is a year older, Stolarz has to be better than Sammy and I am intrigued by Murray. Hildeby is a year older too.
• Our D might be the best we have had in the Matthews era. Not only did we add some of the top guys available, we seem to have balance in RD/LD, puck movers and stay at homers, and we have pairings that seem to work.
• Our F are fine. We were second top scoring team in the league last year and lost a 21-goal guy. We can absorb that from growth from Knies, McMann, Robertson, and Holmberg (plus the D)
• Our PP and PK look to be improved, the PK for sure.
• We have depth in the form of kids knocking at the door and hungry...Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Hirvonen, Tverberg, Niemela, Webber, Hildeby. All of these guys could see time this year.

How are we possibly worse? Tavares a year older? Bertuzzi gone?

I don't see it

I'll take the opposing view in part based on the repeated use of words like "looks to be" and "should" and that this team, despite the revolving door of players lately has been getting progressively worse each year since their record-breaking '20-21 season.

- Berube's impact is a huge question mark. The team might respond at first as players always want to look good in front of a new coach but the history of this team suggests the players will win any showdown so it could get interesting if Craig starts making examples of players - specifically stars.

- Tanev is a big add but he does have an extensive injury history and he's not getting any younger. OEL was playing sheltered minutes in Florida, so my concern is that the money he's getting suggests a bigger role that he might not be suited for. We'll see.

- Special teams. Too much bad history of their special teams failing them in the playoffs for me to be optimistic. At times they've been lethal in the regular season so the talent is there but when it counts, not so much.

- Yes, they'll score a lot of goals. But again, in the playoffs there's no one in this group that's ever - not once - gone on a heater. I'm talking PPG+ for the stars, just taken over a series, etc. And the bottom six just doesn't have the fire power needed, an ongoing problem when half the cap is wrapped up in 4 forwards.

- Youngsters. As with all non-elite prospects it's wait and see. And not sure where they're going fit in, if at all.

- Goaltending. Woll has to stay healthy. Stolarz should be an improvement over Sammy but always be skeptical of goalies with strong numbers coming from strong defensive teams. And unless one of these two gets really good really fast, neither is a Bobrovsky or Vasilevskiy in the making. And considering this team's inability to score late in series, they really need a Bob/Vas.

- Lastly, it's rinse and repeat time again. Same core, therefore the same result. I think Berube could be the key to turning that around but I'm far from convinced he's going to get this entitled, over-paid, coddled group to buy into the type of hockey they have to play to win in the playoffs. In fact, I'm highly doubtful.