Do you believe in Dubas?

[egd27]

He was responding to someone who referenced that poll

No, @Lumberg was referring to this poll:

PuckPedia AGENT POLL | Puckpedia

Agents were split on which current or former GM they’d prefer dealing with to get a great deal for their client. The only GM receiving multiple votes was Kyle Dubas, which may be due to some recency bias as Toronto recently signed some of the largest contracts of the last 18 months.

 

[zeke]

you mean the same poll that said Lou was also named easiest to deal with? Btw they had 2? Total votes each.

can’t make this shit up sometimes

Player agents reveal negotiating habits of NHL GMs

2 total votes lmfaoooo.

That is hilarious.

 

[zeke]

No, @Lumberg was referring to this poll:

PuckPedia AGENT POLL | Puckpedia

Agents were split on which current or former GM they’d prefer dealing with to get a great deal for their client. The only GM receiving multiple votes was Kyle Dubas, which may be due to some recency bias as Toronto recently signed some of the largest contracts of the last 18 months.

So 5 votes for Dubey, and 12 other GMs got 1 vote.

 

[ACC1224]

No, @Lumberg was referring to this poll:

PuckPedia AGENT POLL | Puckpedia

Agents were split on which current or former GM they’d prefer dealing with to get a great deal for their client. The only GM receiving multiple votes was Kyle Dubas, which may be due to some recency bias as Toronto recently signed some of the largest contracts of the last 18 months.

Didn’t Dubas get about 5 times as many votes as the others?

 

[egd27]

So 5 votes for Dubey, and 12 other GMs got 1 vote.

Correct.

So he was "on pace" for 29 votes had they asked 100 agents.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Correct.

So he was "on pace" for 29 votes had they asked 100 agents.

Expected votes! LOL

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Correct.

So he was "on pace" for 29 votes had they asked 100 agents.

LOL

 

[Dekes For Days]

Andy was a UFA. Mrazek is not and teams will have to give up assets. Once Soup is paid, every GM in the league will know Leafs will be wanting to move Mrazek's contract to free up cap space and it will be another AJ for Anderson deal.

Why would getting an Anderson type prospect for Mrazek if we want to move him be a bad thing? Mrazek cost no assets to acquire.

 

[justashadowof]

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a mere 1/32 of the total NHL players under contracts. Chances are that a large number of the other 12 agents have never even dealt with Kyle Dubas.

 

[ACC1224]

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a mere 1/32 of the total NHL players under contracts. Chances are that a large number of the other 12 agents have never even dealt with Kyle Dubas.

No doubt he would have swept the category if they had.

 

[justashadowof]

No doubt he would have swept the category if they had.

The weirdest pattern on that poll was Dubas scoring 29% on the "great deal for your client" poll yet only 8% on "enjoy dealing with the most" poll.

 

[ACC1224]

The weirdest pattern on that poll was Dubas scoring 29% on the "great deal for your client" poll yet only 8% on "enjoy dealing with the most" poll.

They probably enjoy more of a challenge.

 

[ToneDog]

Why would getting an Anderson type prospect for Mrazek if we want to move him be a bad thing? Mrazek cost no assets to acquire.

Did not say it was good or bad. Might actually be good in a deal for Mrazek.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So 5 votes for Dubey, and 12 other GMs got 1 vote.

I find it hilarious how even the people conducting the poll realized the recency and exposure biases that impacted that question, and yet the people still referencing it years later conveniently ignore it, as they try to twist the meaning of good deal into overpaid, despite the fact that not a single Dubas deal appears on the bad contract list.

Not to mention that the unsupported opinions of a whole 5 people (most if not all of which likely never did business with Dubas) are being treated as if they represent all agents, when the overwhelming majority of even the small sample of polled agents felt different.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Chances are that a large number of the other 12 agents have never even dealt with Kyle Dubas.

Chances are that the 5 people that said Dubas had never even dealt with Dubas.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I don’t think expectations were particularly high to begin with. Crash and bang a little bit, chip in with some offense, and be a versatile player. Really just be a top 9 mix and match forward a la Galchenyuk, Bunting, and whatever else we fill out our lines with. But the problem is how do you set expectations for guy who is on pace for 9 points in 82 games? That’s a black hole of production even for a stay at home defenseman. Ritchie is so beyond the curve bad you can’t even blame the GM for it.

That list is getting longer and longer each season. Kyle "you can't blame him" Dubas.

 

[Stephen]

That list is getting longer and longer each season. Kyle "you can't blame him" Dubas.

I freely criticize Dubas on a number of items every year but Ritchie has just been so especially bad that I’m filing it under the “what the hell is this?” folder.

 

[deprw]

Chances are that the 5 people that said Dubas had never even dealt with Dubas.

Knowing our fanbase that would have been epic troll job.

 

[hotpaws]

Chances are that the 5 people that said Dubas had never even dealt with Dubas.

There’s a much much much greater chance the people that didn’t vote for Dubas never dealt with him .

 

[Nylanderthal]

No doubt he would have swept the category if they had.

Right. Cuz the Nylander, Brodie, muzzin, Kase, Kampf, bunting, Kerfoot deals are all bad? Literally all of those are under market. Tired narrative is tired.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Right. Cuz the Nylander, Brodie, muzzin, Kase, Kampf, bunting, Kerfoot deals are all bad? Literally all of those are under market. Tired narrative is tired.

Tired, agreed. Add the Rielly deal to the list.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There’s a much much much greater chance the people that didn’t vote for Dubas never dealt with him .

There actually isn't. Chances are actually that none of them dealt with Dubas. There are a ton of agents in the NHL, Dubas had only been on the job for a couple years at the time of that poll, and there were only a handful of contracts outside of ELCs and low cost signings that he had even done.

As the poll even states, it was almost certainly a result of recency bias with the big signings all coming just prior to the poll, as well as exposure bias as a result of those deals being discussed everywhere ad nauseum for the previous year leading up to the poll, where media personalities gave inaccurate and uninformed opinions on the negotiations and resulting contracts to generate clicks and views.

 

[hotpaws]

There actually isn't. Chances are actually that none of them dealt with Dubas. There are a ton of agents in the NHL, Dubas had only been on the job for a couple years at the time of that poll, and there were only a handful of contracts outside of ELCs and low cost signings that he had even done. And if they're giving that answer, they clearly don't know Dubas very well.

As the poll even states, it was almost certainly a result of recency bias with the big signings all coming just prior to the poll, as well as exposure bias as a result of those deals being discussed everywhere ad nauseum for the previous year leading up to the poll, where media personalities gave inaccurate and uninformed opinions on the negotiations and resulting contracts to generate clicks and views.

Cool fairy tale but the chances that Dubas received the most votes but never dealt with those agents are zero .

 

[Dekes For Days]

Cool fairy tale but the chances that Dubas received the most votes but never dealt with those agents are zero .

The chances are actually incredibly high, as explained. I believe he had done 7 contracts over 1m at the time of the poll, and even ignoring that all of those contracts were fair value, and even if assuming no overlap of agents, the chance that of the tiny sample of agents chosen for the poll, 5 of them were from those potential 7 and all held that opinion with negative intention is astronomically low. Which is why the poll even went out of its way to acknowledge the likely impact of recency bias.

Unfortunately, this poll question from years ago has been twisted, and the unsupported, assumed opinions of these 5 random people have been clung to, because people can't actually justify any arguments against Dubas' contracts themselves.

 

[Nylanderthal]

That list is getting longer and longer each season. Kyle "you can't blame him" Dubas.

Who else is on this list of extremely bad deals of yours besides Ritchie! Honestly I’m curious