Do all 3 Hughes brothers go 1st overall in their respective re-drafts?

[ninetyeight]

Quinn has the best competition, but he's also the best of the three. I think with Luke it's between him and Guenther. But it's very early and things can change quickly. But some of these takes are comical, Moser????? He's like THREE years older than Luke.

Edvinsson, Power, maybe? It's hard to say when their teams are doing bad, but Power's defensive metrics don't impress. Johnston? Maybe last year, but unless he picks it back up this year he shouldn't be in the conversation. Right now he's pacing for similar production that Luke had at his rookie year as a defenceman.

 

[bobholly39]

Jack and Quinn unquestionably #1. Quinn may have some strong competition in his year, but doesn't mean he doesn't still stand out as the clear #1 in the group.

Luke? No idea. As others have said, it's too early to tell. Maybe?

 

[sensfan4lifee]

Edvinsson is 7 months older than Luke lmao. He's also not a rookie.

Giving Edvinsson credit for being unable to crack an NHL roster until like a year and a half older is wild.

"better defensively".
Except luke gives up significantly less expected goals than any of the other dmen (and creates significantly more offensively
View attachment 947831


Disagree.

Maybe early in the year when he was playing it safe, but he's been better offensively for the last month +.

Detroit takes there time with prospects thats why Edvinson took this long, also yes Edvinson will be a better player than Luke Hughes whom I actually like, but I feel like Edvinson will be a big two way beast on D.

To illustrate the age gap between Luke last year and Edvinsson this year.

Simon Edvinsson is 21 years and 10 months old.

At this time last year Luke Hughes was 20 years and 3 months old.

That is a 19 month age gap.


For comparison, the age gap between Edvinsson and Jack Hughes (23 years 7 months) is 21 months.

Luke Hughes was better than Edvinsson 2 years ago
Luke Hughes was better than Edvinsson last year
Luke Hughes is better than Edvinsson now.

And he's 7 months younger than him. Edvinsson taking longer to crack the show is not a point in his favour

Once again Detroit takes there time with prospects

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Giants like Edvinsson nearly always take longer to develop. That's not unusual at all and was expected when he was drafted.


On the other hand he's playing those situations because he's really good defensively. I mean his entire useage is focused on the defensive side - meaning defending the lead in 5v6 situations might actually be one of his most favorable offensive situations - crazy isn't it? Meanwhile, Hughes gets heavier deployment in the o-zone, on the PP, with better surroundings and easier matchups the other 99% of hockey games but that's apparently not relevant.

Should we just add in PP goal differential while we're at it?

 

[dgibb10]

Giants like Edvinsson nearly always take longer to develop. That's not unusual at all and was expected when he was drafted.


On the other hand he's playing those situations because he's really good defensively. I mean his entire useage is focused on the defensive side - meaning defending the lead in 5v6 situations might actually be one of his most favorable offensive situations - crazy isn't it? Meanwhile, Hughes gets heavier deployment in the o-zone, on the PP, with better surroundings and easier matchups the other 99% of hockey games but that's apparently not relevant.

Who gets heavier deployment in the ozone?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sure, but you need to get in that position first. And conversely if you don't want to include EN goals then you probably also shouldn't include other goals scored with goalie pulled etc. As long as it doesn't get convoluted I don't mind.

That's why you look at 5v5

Hughes was dead last among Devils defensemen in on-ice EV goal differential still less than a month ago, that's also a part of the story together with the recent improvement. Now he's tied 6th out of 9.

Since November 12 (his last 16) he's +5 or tied second in team and 27th in the league among defensemen. Not bad, but Moser and Zellweger are ahead. Over the whole season Moser is the leader among these guys (+11 or tied 17th in the league). Leaving him out as overager there's Clarke (+6) ahead of Edvinsson and Zellweger (both +5). Among forwards Guenther is +13 and the clear leader overall.

Against Detroit they've played twice this season, both teams won one, Hughes 0+2=2 ±0 and Edvinsson 0+1=1 +2. Not sure that decided it for either one.

You can't be serious with this...

 

[dgibb10]

That's why you look at 5v5


You can't be serious with this...

Evolving Hockey EV metrics are also good because they don't include empty net situations. So they'll include 4 on 4 or 3 on 3.


+/- and tired narratives about Luke's defense that weren't even true last year, let alone this year

 

[Rowlet]

Give dahlin two 100 pt forwards and an actual team and he puts up similar production as Quinn.

Hughes is leading the Canucks in scoring, the 2nd highest is 58th in league scoring.

They're 100pt fwds because of Hughes

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Surefire proof that you haven't watched him play this season.

Apparently nobody here has, because you're about the only one batshit crazy enough to think he belongs in any conversation for 1st overall in a redraft.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Apparently nobody here has,

Wouldn't surprise me based on the responses. The few who actually watch him know what a beast he's become.

because you're about the only one batshit crazy enough to think he belongs in any conversation for 1st overall in a redraft.

Watch a game. Dude plays 24 mins a night in all situations. Elite shutdown dman with a developing offensive game.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Wouldn't surprise me based on the responses. The few who actually watch him know what a beast he's become.

Watch a game. Dude plays 24 mins a night in all situations. Elite shutdown dman with a developing offensive game.

Clayton Keller also turned into quite the player.

Doesn't mean I'm taking him over Matthews or Tkachuk in a redraft. Vlasic doesn't touch Hughes or Seider at all. Thanks for playing.

 

[PainForShane]

Wouldn't surprise me based on the responses. The few who actually watch him know what a beast he's become.

Watch a game. Dude plays 24 mins a night in all situations. Elite shutdown dman with a developing offensive game.

24 minutes a night, is that right? Actually the kid averages less than 20. His MAX this season was 21:50. Try again.

***

EDIT: This is a dumb post. Whiskey and FriendlyGhost were discussing Vlasic (not Luke Hughes as I originally thought). 100% my mistake on this

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

24 minutes a night, is that right? Actually the kid averages less than 20. His MAX this season was 21:50. Try again.

Try reading to see who we're talking about, and then try again.

You're reading comprehension is legendarily poor.

Clayton Keller also turned into quite the player.

Doesn't mean I'm taking him over Matthews or Tkachuk in a redraft. Vlasic doesn't touch Hughes or Seider at all. Thanks for playing.

Vlasic is better than Seider and Boldy IMO, but yes Hughes is clearly #1.

 

[PainForShane]

Try reading to see who we're talking about, and then try again.

You're reading comprehension is legendarily poor.

Yep, you were talking about Vlasic. I'll take the L on that one.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yep, you were talking about Vlasic. I'll take the L on that one.

No worries, sorry for my snippy response.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Try reading to see who we're talking about, and then try again.

You're reading comprehension is legendarily poor.


Vlasic is better than Seider and Boldy IMO, but yes Hughes is clearly #1.

If Hughes is clearly #1 there's not really much point in mentioning anybody else.

And no, he's not better than Seider lmao.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If Hughes is clearly #1 there's not really much point in mentioning anybody else.

Well about 4% of people think Hughes doesn't go first.

And no, he's not better than Seider lmao.

Agree to disagree. Vlasic is very clearly the better defender, while Seider is probably better offensively, but not by much. Vlasic is scoring at nearly the same rate despite playing on a much worse team. By the eye test, Vlasic is faster and the more dynamic puck carrier despite being 6'7.

 

[PainForShane]

No worries, sorry for my snippy response.

Sorry man -- it's far too late for that after the seemingly continuous nonsense / bad faith responses and arguments I've seen you make directly to me and others (haven't followed this particular thread so not sure if you've done more of that here).

But yeah, like you said you were talking about Vlasic not Luke Hughes in the post I responded to, clearly my mistake, thx for calling me out on it. 100% appropriate to do so, my bad on that.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Well about 4% of people think Hughes doesn't go first.

Agree to disagree. Vlasic is very clearly the better defender, while Seider is probably better offensively, but not by much. Vlasic is scoring at nearly the same rate despite playing on a much worse team. By the eye test, Vlasic is faster and the more dynamic puck carrier despite being 6'7.

There's nothing to agree to disagree on. You don't get to suggest something batshit insane and then claim "Agree to disagree". You're just wrong. You're literally drunk enough to claim Vlasic is "Very clearly the better defender" and then only wanna concede that Seider is "Probably" better offensively.

Seider is only "Probably" better than a guy who has already matched his career high of 16 points this season... Amassing 55% of them on the PP.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

There's nothing to agree to disagree on. You're literally drunk enough to claim Vlasic is "Very clearly the better defender"

Look at their defensive numbers and try telling me otherwise.

It wasn't even close last year.

Vlasic:
2.50 xGA/60
46.7 xG%
-0.55 rel xGA/60
+6.17 rel xG%

Seider:
2.93 xGA/60
43.7 xG%
+0.40 rel xGA/60
-3.18 rel xG%

and then only wanna concede that Seider is "Probably" better offensively.

Seider is only "Probably" better than a guy who has already matched his career high of 16 points this season... Amassing 55% of them on the PP.

I think Vlasic is better overall than Seider, sorry. Seider was really not good last year. He's been better this year, but think a lot of that has to do with Edvinsson.

Vlasic is an elite shutdown #1 dman on pace for 40+ points on the worst team in the league. He's not some throw in.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Look at their defensive numbers and try telling me otherwise.

It wasn't even close last year.

Vlasic:
2.50 xGA/60
46.7 xG%
-0.55 rel xGA/60
+6.17 rel xG%

Seider:
2.93 xGA/60
43.7 xG%
+0.40 rel xGA/60
-3.18 rel xG%


I think Vlasic is better overall than Seider, sorry. Seider was really not good last year. He's been better this year, but think a lot of that has to do with Edvinsson.

Vlasic is an elite shutdown #1 dman on pace for 40+ points on the worst team in the league. He's not some throw in.

Lol. Even statboy Jesus Dom Luscyznzycznycznsysnzyn has explained that Seider is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to advanced stats.

Also strange that you decided to use last year's advanced defensive stats to compare Seider and Vlasic, but I'm guessing wouldn't want to touch last year's offensive stats? Or mention that Seider's deployment last season was some of the worst a defenseman has seen in the cap era?

Congrats to Vlasic for being a shutdown #1 dman on pace for 40+ points on the worst team in the league, though. He finally caught up to what Seider was doing three years ago.

 

[Hisch13r]

ZERO question for Jack and Quinn (there is no one id take over Quinn in that draft). For Luke I'd lean towards it but its just very very early and theres going to be guys that are still going to ramp up into their careers. 3 years post draft Quinn was in a similar spot where you could argue for Dahlin or even maybe Tkachuk or Svechnikov. Right now Luke vs Power is really tough to call. Power has double his points right now with only a couple mins more per game. Since Power already went first, its hard to take that spot til theres a clear gap the other way, so for now its Quinn and Jack for sure but Luke is a maybe.

Who knows maybe in a couple years Luke will be up with Quinn as a top guy in the league.

Luke was coming off an injury to start the year, he missed training camp, and the first few weeks of the year. He started off slow offensively because of it. Luke has been exceptional since getting back to speed. He only had one assist the first 9 games back and it was a PP secondary assist. Also only had xGF/60 of 1.97. In the 16 games since he has 10 pts in 16 games with an xGF/60 of 3.58 which is 5th in the league and 1st among Dmen. He has a 66% xG which ranks 7th in the league and 1st among Dmen since getting back up to speed. Even looking at the season as a whole he has the 12th best xG% and 1st among Dmen.

Luke blows Power out of the water defensively as well. I think Power is and always has been super overrated just because he's 6'6. I don’t think ever really belonged in the 1OA discussion and still doesn't. The other top 3 D blow him out of the water this year

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Lol. Even statboy Jesus Dom Luscyznzycznycznsysnzyn has explained that Seider is a bit of an anomaly when it comes to advanced stats.

Dom is an idiot

Watch him play if you don't want to trust the underlying numbers. Vlasic is a beast.

Also strange that you decided to use last year's advanced defensive stats to compare Seider and Vlasic, but I'm guessing wouldn't want to touch last year's offensive stats?

It was Vlasic's rookie season, and he's made a huge jump in his offensive game since then.

Or mention that Seider's deployment last season was some of the worst a defenseman has seen in the cap era?

Sorry I didn't look that up beforehand, why would I know that?

Congrats to Vlasic for being a shutdown #1 dman on pace for 40+ points on the worst team in the league, though. He finally caught up to what Seider was doing three years ago.

Offensively, yeah. He was already ahead defensively in his rookie season.

Let's just agree to disagree and not sidetrack the thread.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Dom is an idiot

Watch him play if you don't want to trust the underlying numbers. Vlasic is a beast.


It was Vlasic's rookie season, and he's made a huge jump in his offensive game since then.


Sorry I didn't look that up beforehand, why would I know that?

Offensively, yeah. He was already ahead defensively in his rookie season.

Let's just agree to disagree and not sidetrack the thread.

You cited numerous advanced stats to argue against Seider's performance last season, and then ask "Why would I know his deployment was historically bad"??

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You cited numerous advanced stats to argue against Seider's performance last season, and then ask "Why would I know his deployment was historically bad"??

I posted his xG numbers, didn't look at QoC sorry, it's not right there on NS.