Do all 3 Hughes brothers go 1st overall in their respective re-drafts?

[FriendlyGhost92]

I posted his xG numbers, didn't look at QoC sorry, it's not right there on NS.

I accept your apology.

 

[PainForShane]

I accept your apology.

That's up to you I guess. He made a bad faith argument though.

Basically if someone didn't have an agenda the natural thing to do is compare this year's stats, not last year's stats. We're 30+ games into the season that's a large enough sample size. Plus Vlasic was a rookie last year (which he mentioned) so last year's stats are even less applicable than they otherwise would be.

Here's what you find from a cursory top level look (2024-2025 5v5 via NST):

Vlasic:
2.51 xGA/60
44.84 xG%
-0.1 rel xGA/60
-0.29 rel xG%

Seider:
2.44 xGA/60
45.99 xG%
-0.08 rel xGA/60
+0.24 rel xG%

So defensively, basically the same (at least looking at it just from a cursory top level). But yeah, saying some version of 'the defensive numbers clearly show Vlasic is better defensively' is straight up nonsense, personally I believe this proactive attempt at misdirection was intentional

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That's up to you I guess. He made a bad faith argument though.

Basically if someone didn't have an agenda the natural thing to do is compare this year's stats, not last year's stats. We're 30+ games into the season that's a large enough sample size. Plus Vlasic was a rookie last year (which he mentioned) so last year's stats are even less applicable than they otherwise would be.

Here's what you find from a cursory top level look (2024-2025 5v5 via NST):

Vlasic:
2.51 xGA/60
44.84 xG%
-0.1 rel xGA/60
-0.29 rel xG%

Seider:
2.44 xGA/60
45.99 xG%
-0.08 rel xGA/60
+0.24 rel xG%

So defensively, basically the same (at least looking at it just from a cursory top level). But yeah, saying some version of 'the defensive numbers clearly show Vlasic is better defensively' is straight up nonsense, personally I believe this proactive attempt at misdirection was intentional

I used the larger sample, it's not like I hid the fact that they were last year's numbers. Typically I'd use combined seasons but I'm on my phone at the airport and it takes a while to compile those numbers. Seider has also benefited greatly from playing alongside Edvinsson this year.

But of course you attribute it to "bad faith" because you're still salty about me saying Bedard doesn't have McDavid upside.

Combining the last 2 years and it's clearly Vlasic.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I used the larger sample, it's not like I hid the fact that they were last year's numbers. Typically I'd use combined seasons but I'm on my phone at the airport and it takes a while to compile those numbers. Seider has also benefited greatly from playing alongside Edvinsson this year.

But of course you attribute it to "bad faith" because you're still salty about me saying Bedard doesn't have McDavid upside.

Combining the last 2 years and it's clearly Vlasic.

Your excuse was using the larger sample and yet you want to use the smaller sample this year to concede that Seider is only "Probably" better offensively.

Convenient.

That's up to you I guess. He made a bad faith argument though.

It was a tongue in cheek acceptance lol.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Luke? Lmao no

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Your excuse was using the larger sample and yet you want to use the smaller sample this year to concede that Seider is only "Probably" better offensively.

Convenient.

His ES production last year wasn't that far behind Seider's. While playing for the worst offensive team in the league.

This year he's started getting more PP time, and significantly improved his overall offensive game.

You don't need numbers for this, just watch him play. But it's convenient that the numbers support this, even in a smaller sample. He's become an offensive force.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

His ES production last year wasn't that far behind Seider's. While playing for the worst offensive team in the league.

"Wasn't far behind Seider's" is an interesting way to spin Seider having 24 points to Vlasic's 14. That's what, 175%? Very close.

This year he's started getting more PP time, and significantly improved his overall offensive game.

I can tell he's getting more PP time... That explains why 55% of his production is on the PP.

You don't need numbers for this, just watch him play. But it's convenient that the numbers support this, even in a smaller sample. He's become an offensive force.

He's an offensive force that is currently tied for 92nd among defenders in 5 on 5 scoring...

 

[PainForShane]

I used the larger sample, it's not like I hid the fact that they were last year's numbers. Typically I'd use combined seasons but I'm on my phone at the airport and it takes a while to compile those numbers. Seider has also benefited greatly from playing alongside Edvinsson this year.

But of course you attribute it to "bad faith" because you're still salty about me saying Bedard doesn't have McDavid upside.

Combining the last 2 years and it's clearly Vlasic.

There you go bringing up Bedard again. Guess it was only a matter of time before you tried to threadjack your own thread...

Meanwhile, NST is pretty simple to use -- if you want to combine seasons you change the 'from' and 'thru' fields, there's a drop down. Here's what I mean:

Equally easy to use on your phone, the fields are quite large. No calculation required.

***

@FriendlyGhost92 -- makes sense. Hard to read tongue in cheek tone over these message boards. But yeah, to me seems pretty obvious that cherry picking time windows to defend an extreme minority opinion is basically the definition of bad faith arguing. It also appears to be what Whiskey is doing here.

Meanwhile this year Seider has 12 ES points, tied for 16th in 5v5 scoring alongside other offensively gifted defensemen like E. Karlsson, Theodore, Adam Fox, Serg, Harley. Vlasic has 6 ES points (ie only half of Seider) and is tied at 91st, at about the same but slightly higher ice time. The numbers do NOT support equal offensive impact, not even close.

And honestly, we didn't even really need to look into this, everyone knows Seider is much better offensively. As a result, not sure anyone other than potentially Whiskey would pick Vlasic above Seider if a redraft were to be held today even though Vlasic might certainly become a very good player