Confirmed with Link: DJ Smith fired, Jacques Martin in as interim, Alfie as assistant

[JD1]

And you don't see a VAST difference in the way they play?

Before January 11th : 3.13 xGA/60 (19th best in the league)

Since January 11th : 2.38 xGA/60 (2nd best in the league)

We are giving a much better chance to the goalies to do the work... and it would have been better if Forsberg was not injured because I think he'd thrive in the new reinvented "team defense"

We have cut back the "goals on a silver platter" significantly

At least according to natural stat trick, their xGA/60 is 13th at 5 on 5 since January 11.

 

[Micklebot]

At least according to natural stat trick, their xGA/60 is 13th at 5 on 5 since January 11.

I think he's looking at all strengths, which I can see the argument for using if you're trying to gauge a goalies workload.

 

[Tuna99]

At least according to natural stat trick, their xGA/60 is 13th at 5 on 5 since January 11.

possible to see and believe the goalie play has improved but still want all 3 of your goalies gone for 1 real goalie?

 

[Xspyrit]

What they are learning now will be crucial for the next coach as he builds on their play.

These guys are learning fundamentals of playing a two way game which DJ could not do

What a waste it was keeping DJ for this long

I thought this was going to be undisputed from now on but it looks like it is still a topic. We can love DJ without thinking he did a good enough job. I love DJ, but not as the coach of my favorite team.

From Sublime's lyrics :

All of the DJ's surely have taken a lesson
Start talkin' trash and I'll come with my Smith & Wesson

We were not outshot the last two seasons under DJ. +2.0 positive shot differential last year, neutral the year before, only slightly below league average the year before that.

Not defending DJ but be careful about calling others revisionists when in fact DJ eventually produced decent numbers in that regard.

PP was great last season, our ES was good too but our PDO was terrible.

2020-21 and 2021-22, we didn't have great advanced stats but it was at least to be somewhat expected as our core was pretty young and we didn't have any good vet outside of Connor Brown

2022-23 it looked like we were turning a corner. 11th best CF% at ES, 9th best SF%, 12th best xGF%, problem is our GF% was 24th, goalies were below average and we had the worst S% in the league at ES. That killed us.

Problem is this season, it looked like we were still at a 2020-21/2021-22 level under DJ and that just could NOT be permitted. 16th best CF% at ES, 14th best SF%, 17th best xGF% but we were 11-15 despite the 13th best PDO (19th in SV%, 7th in S%)

At least according to natural stat trick, their xGA/60 is 13th at 5 on 5 since January 11.

Since January 11th, 9th lowest xGA/60 at ES (includes 5 on 5, 4 on 4, 3 on 3) and LOWEST xGA/60 on the PK, it's going in the right direction they have to focus on the process, not the results (although, it also comes by playing the right way). Gotta figure out that PP though, it's been bad all season

I think he's looking at all strengths, which I can see the argument for using if you're trying to gauge a goalies workload.

yeah forgot to mention, it was all strengths because I was talking about the overall team defense since January 11th and how it is reflected in advanced stats

We keep playing like this and our goalie stats will vastly improve (Korpisalo's GAA since January 11th is 2.60 even though his SV% is marginally better than it was (0.896 since vs 0.887 before)

 

[Micklebot]

We keep playing like this and our goalie stats will vastly improved (Korpisalo's GAA since January 11th is 2.60 even though his SV% is marginally better than it was (0.896 since vs 0.887 before)

Using the xGA, we can calculate an expected sv% on the team level.

Pre 11 Jan, xSv% 901, actual sv% is .885
11 Jan -present, xSv% .908 while the actual sv% is .866

If we keep playing this way, we should see an improvement, but how much remains to be seen.

goaltending was, and still is, underperforming expectations. How much of that is a lack of confidence the skaters will do their part, resulting in the goalie cheating and giving up lower quality chances expecting the backdoor pass or some other breakdown? Hard to say. Korpisalo specifically, has looked pretty solid in his last few games (NYR game aside).

 

[Xspyrit]

Using the xGA, we can calculate an expected sv% on the team level.

Pre 11 Jan, xSv% 901, actual sv% is .885
11 Jan -present, xSv% .908 while the actual sv% is .866

If we keep playing this way, we should see an improvement, but how much remains to be seen.

goaltending was, and still is, underperforming expectations. How much of that is a lack of confidence the skaters will do their part, resulting in the goalie cheating and giving up lower quality chances expecting the backdoor pass or some other breakdown? Hard to say. Korpisalo specifically, has looked pretty solid in his last few games (NYR game aside).

Sogaard's stats destroy the after January 11th though

He really has been 5.00gaard in the games he played lol

 

[Micklebot]

Sogaard's stats destroy the after January 11th though

He really has been 5.00gaard in the games he played lol

yeah, that's fair,

Just Korpisalo 11 Jan to present, all situations;

xSv% .910, actual sv% .896

 

[Tuna99]

What about Jay McKee For Head Coach - Staois won an OHL championship with him. found this article interesting because it says Staois has a formula for win in g championships - in the OHL of course but flexibility and targetting specific players seems a big part of Staois philosophy.

“(Former general manager) Steve Staois basically gave me a guidebook on building championship teams and I’m kind of following what he did during the days in Hamilton.”

Turek and the entire Bulldogs organization are aware of what it takes to win, having captured OHL championships in 2018 and 2022 while the team played in Hamilton. He said part of the process in being successful is acquiring assets like draft picks that can either be used in future trades or to select players the team will develop themselves. “Our goal is to win championships and our next goal is to win a championship in Brantford,” said Turek.

 

[Samsquanch]

What about Jay McKee For Head Coach - Staois won an OHL championship with him. found this article interesting because it says Staois has a formula for win in g championships - in the OHL of course but flexibility and targetting specific players seems a big part of Staois philosophy.

“(Former general manager) Steve Staois basically gave me a guidebook on building championship teams and I’m kind of following what he did during the days in Hamilton.”

Turek and the entire Bulldogs organization are aware of what it takes to win, having captured OHL championships in 2018 and 2022 while the team played in Hamilton. He said part of the process in being successful is acquiring assets like draft picks that can either be used in future trades or to select players the team will develop themselves. “Our goal is to win championships and our next goal is to win a championship in Brantford,” said Turek.

Pass from me, even though he sounds like a decent coaching prospect.

I honestly think this team NEEDS to go with a proven and experienced coach this time around. Both the players and the fanbase are at a stage that we can't afford to roll the dice on a rookie coach.

It would be a total disaster for the franchise to have to fire/hire another coach in the next 2 seasons - they gotta get this one right. We need a guy who can at very least get us into a wildcard spot a few times, and then we can get creative again if need be with the coaches.

 

[Samsquanch]

Objectively, the worst run of goaltending I've ever seen as a fan of this team. Forget the high-danger scoring chances for a minute...what about the low-danger floaters that go in? What about the bizarre miscues by the goalie that end up in the net? What about some of the worst sv% we've ever seen in Ottawa? What about the volume of relatively easy to save long-range shots that go in?

I talked about this at the beginning of the season, regarding the mentality of the group and the way that the poor goaltending has eviscerated their confidence. The other day I'm listening to Bobby Ryan and Jason York talking about how that kind of goaltending destroys teams. It was almost verbatim to what I wrote about mindset, confidence, being afraid of making mistakes, etc.

I don't know how the goaltending problem snow-balled to such an extraordinary extent but there's just no team in the league that can overcome that kind of performance. It can be done for a small amount of time but it's impossible to overcome for an entire season.

Anyway, the season is a wash so none of this matters too much at this point. Hopefully a fresh start next year (where have we heard that before?) gets things back on track.

Word. We are so bad in net it hurts...we've had some brief stretches of good play from lots of guys.. but IMO, our goalies have let us down so many times in key moments. Its staggering.

I would kill for a consistent top 10ish goalie. The more and more I'm starting to believe it's the biggest deciding factor in separating teams in their respective tiers.

An elite goalie isn't going to make a bad team a great one. But having straight up bad goaltending is the kiss of death for anyone other than a powerhouse "contender" that's sure to lose in the playoffs (lol @ the Leafs....and us).

 

[LiseL]

We were getting outshot and outchanced badly most nights under DJ. This was not a purely goaltending issue.

Now that Jacques Martin has had some time we're the ones getting more shots and more chances on most nights.

DJ did one important thing for this team. He did not destroy our young players and their development which while it sounds like a low bar.... tons of coaches in all different types of sports routinely harm the development of young players. I don't hate the guy. I don't think he should never get another head coaching job. But we have to be realistic here. It's not just goaltending, it's his systems where one night we give up almost 40 shots, the next night we give up 25. We were all over the place. And even on those nights we gave up less shots we were still usually the ones getting outshot.

Great post. I would only add that we were giving up too many high quality shots even when the shot count was lower.

 

[SensHulk]

Pass from me, even though he sounds like a decent coaching prospect.

I honestly think this team NEEDS to go with a proven and experienced coach this time around. Both the players and the fanbase are at a stage that we can't afford to roll the dice on a rookie coach.

It would be a total disaster for the franchise to have to fire/hire another coach in the next 2 seasons - they gotta get this one right. We need a guy who can at very least get us into a wildcard spot a few times, and then we can get creative again if need be with the coaches.

One option in case we can’t get a veteran coach is to keep with JM for next season or two and hire John Gruden as an assistant coach (heir in waiting) to replace Jacques whenever the time is right. Might soften the transition and keeps some level of consistency and stability within the coaching staff for multiple seasons

 

[SpezDispenser]

This will go down as the dumbest decision of the last few years. Smith shouldn't have been allowed to even start the season as coach and sure as shit shouldn't have been allowed to continue past mid November.

Such a waste.

 

[Tuna99]

Pass from me, even though he sounds like a decent coaching prospect.

I honestly think this team NEEDS to go with a proven and experienced coach this time around. Both the players and the fanbase are at a stage that we can't afford to roll the dice on a rookie coach.

It would be a total disaster for the franchise to have to fire/hire another coach in the next 2 seasons - they gotta get this one right. We need a guy who can at very least get us into a wildcard spot a few times, and then we can get creative again if need be with the coaches.

Dark horse could be John Cooper if TB missed the playoffs, Stamkos signs in T.O. might be time for big changes in TB. And Cooper is looking for a team that can get his stats into the top of the NHL and the NHL history books on wins and Cups - Ottawa has everything but the goalie and it could be tempting for an experienced coach to take this team on for a good 5 year run

 

[Burrowsaurus]

This will go down as the dumbest decision of the last few years. Smith shouldn't have been allowed to even start the season as coach and sure as shit shouldn't have been allowed to continue past mid November.

Such a waste.

The fact he coached all last year was insane. Or even started last year

 

[Ouroboros]

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Good for him, back in the assistant seat that probably suits him best.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Good for him, back in the assistant seat that probably suits him best.

We'll see where it goes. Pretty quickly swept up by another team. Goes to show he is valued by those in the know.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We'll see where it goes. Pretty quickly swept up by another team. Goes to show he is valued by those in the know.

Could be. I personally feel it's fair to say he was both unlucky and unable to capitalize on opportunity, so I certainly don't question moving on.

Like you say, we'll see, but I wish him all the best either way. I liked the Mendes side story a lot. Said a ton about DJ, but imo he always seemed like a good person.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Good for him. Glad he got a chance to do something elsewhere and even more glad he is not coaching this team anymore

 

[swiftwin]

Hilarious. Where's everyone who said he wouldn't get another job in the NHL? He got picked up by another NHL team mid-season.

 

[bicboi64]

Hilarious. Where's everyone who said he wouldn't get another job in the NHL? He got picked up by another NHL team mid-season.

Right here.

I'll eat my crow pie, but I'll also laugh my arse off the the Kings have a sudden drop in any special teams and if DJ takes over, a drop into the basement

 

[Reaper45]

He’s decent as an assistant no? It’s when he was a head coach that he was over his head? Pros? Cons?

 

[Beech]

Hilarious. Where's everyone who said he wouldn't get another job in the NHL? He got picked up by another NHL team mid-season.

As an outside assistant !!!

what is an outside assistant?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]