Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXIV

[My3Sons]

Just for clarification, Im not stating these things as my personal viewpoint on the matter but instead what I think management is thinking. Just trying to get different angles on the subject so we arent caught off-guard later on

While I dont inherently disagree with anything either of you have said, I just see it as unrealistic to expect Fitzgerald and co's value/outlook on Ty Smith to have, over a single years time, plumetted from top-4 future dman to not even seen as higher than two sub-20NHL game defenseman. And to then trade said player as well.

Its a pretty large leap in faith for an organization that has taken things relatively slow

And not to mention his value as Jack's broccoli consultant.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Personally I just view Smith as a slightly better Butcher, though that's not to say he still can't improve. His skating just holds him back so much.

Totally fine with trading him but if the return isn't that good then may as well keep him to start next year to see if he can take the next step.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Just for clarification, Im not stating these things as my personal viewpoint on the matter but instead what I think management is thinking. Just trying to get different angles on the subject so we arent caught off-guard later on

While I dont inherently disagree with anything either of you have said, I just see it as unrealistic to expect Fitzgerald and co's value/outlook on Ty Smith to have, over a single years time, plumetted from top-4 future dman to not even seen as higher than two sub-20NHL game defenseman. And to then trade said player as well.

Its a pretty large leap in faith for an organization that has taken things relatively slow

We’re not talking about value purely. Smith is likely viewed as having higher potential and more value in a potential trade. We’re not suggesting Smith’s value throughout the league is lower than theirs or that they will be better than him. It’s just about where he realistic should be and probably is on the depth chart. That is behind Siegenthaler, Graves, probably Bahl with how he has played and probably not too far ahead of Okhotiuk if he finishes strong. He isn’t just going to be given his spot back or put in a top 4 spot because of his potentially to be good enough there at some point. It will have to be performance based. He will have to earn his spot back from Bahl and possibly Okhotiuk and then outperform Graves. I would bet good money that the devils and their management view it like that as well.

That is without even talking about the fact that the others are better stylistic fits and Smith as an offensive defensemen and power play QB doesn’t seem to be a great fit anymore when we have capable PP options in Hamilton and Severson wit Hughes coming too. Smith’s skillset isn’t what the devils need on D. They have offensive capable defensmen. They need to be better defensively and Smith is really bad defensively and was bad defensively in his rookie season as well.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Allegedly they've been negotiating a contract for a few weeks. Bratt's recent swoon started relatively soon after that. My speculation is it isn't going all that well so far and it's impacting his play a bit. I don't doubt the team has offered something semi-reasonable from the team perspective, and probably close to $7 mil per on a long term deal. My guess is Bratt wants something close to $9 on a shorter term deal like Kaprizov got from Minnesota. Maybe they arrive at something close to $8 mil for 5 years? Hard to say. Fitz hasn't had to cross this kind of bridge yet, seeing as his only big deal was with Hughes which went quickly and easily. Last time around he and Bratt's agent couldn't see eye to eye on anything beyond the arbitration free RFA years. I'd like Bratt to be with NJ long term and hopefully he will be willing to compromise with something semi-reasonable from the player perspective.

No way he gets anything close to 9 and I doubt he gets as much as Jack at 8. I would bet it ends up being around 7 give or take a bit probably at 6 or 7 years. Bratt is also very likely trying to get something longer term.

My prediction is 7 times 7 give or take a year and 0.5 million.

 

[Nubmer6]

We’re not talking about value purely. Smith is likely viewed as having higher potential and more value in a potential trade. We’re not suggesting Smith’s value throughout the league is lower than theirs or that they will be better than him. It’s just about where he realistic should be and probably is on the depth chart. That is behind Siegenthaler, Graves, probably Bahl with how he has played and probably not too far ahead of Okhotiuk if he finishes strong. He isn’t just going to be given his spot back or put in a top 4 spot because of his potentially to be good enough there at some point. It will have to be performance based. He will have to earn his spot back from Bahl and possibly Okhotiuk and then outperform Graves. I would bet good money that the devils and their management view it like that as well.

That is without even talking about the fact that the others are better stylistic fits and Smith as an offensive defensemen and power play QB doesn’t seem to be a great fit anymore when we have capable PP options in Hamilton and Severson wit Hughes coming too. Smith’s skillset isn’t what the devils need on D. They have offensive capable defensmen. They need to be better defensively and Smith is really bad defensively and was bad defensively in his rookie season as well.

We've seen other offensive defensemen with 0 clue how to defend get mega contracts. It makes me think that someone like Smith, who's still very young, has a pretty good trade value.

Again, He's just not a fit on our team anymore. We have better offensive defensemen. He needs to be put into a position to succeed, and we can't offer that right now. I'd think at least a few other teams would recognize that (or at least believe that) enough that they'd offer something decent up.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

We've seen other offensive defensemen with 0 clue how to defend get mega contracts. It makes me think that someone like Smith, who's still very young, has a pretty good trade value.

Again, He's just not a fit on our team anymore. We have better offensive defensemen. He needs to be put into a position to succeed, and we can't offer that right now. I'd think at least a few other teams would recognize that (or at least believe that) enough that they'd offer something decent up.

Yes the more I look at and think about the more trading him seems like the bests option. If we can use him as part of a trade for a goalie or winger we should. Otherwise if there’s no good offers we bring him back. But if other players including Bahl and Okhotiuk are better than him in camp and give us a better chance of winning than they should play above him and he should start the season in the AHL if necessary.

The thing is even if he plays like he did in his rookie season someone like Bahl helps the team win more as a better defensive player. For Smith to earn his way back into being a regular player in the lineup again assuming Bahl and everyone keeps there play up I think he has to show the offensive play he showed in his first season but also show significant improvements in his defensive game.

 

[FooteBahl]

No way he gets anything close to 9 and I doubt he gets as much as Jack at 8. I would bet it ends up being around 7 give or take a bit probably at 6 or 7 years. Bratt is also very likely trying to get something longer term.

My prediction is 7 times 7 give or take a year and 0.5 million.

I would think a copy of Nico’s contract would be reasonable for him…which is right in your ballpark.

 

[Bleedred]

McLeod has racked up 4 assists in his last 3 games and 5 assists in his last 7 games. His 20 points in 72 games is pretty solid for 4th line production, although it's debatable that he actually plays 4th line minutes.

But his ability to go on these insanely long goal droughts is absurd. He's now at 28 straight games without a goal, which is the second time in his NHL career that he's went 28 or more games without a goal and he's also had three different goalless streaks of at least 25 games and four of at least 16 games.

He won't be able to break his own streak of 38 straight (Which were his first 38 NHL games he played) before this season ends, but he could just a few games into next season.

I'd like to say he'll get one more goal this year, but I didn't think he'd go to 25 games for the third time ever and he did.

 

[Rydev]

We’re not talking about value purely. Smith is likely viewed as having higher potential and more value in a potential trade. We’re not suggesting Smith’s value throughout the league is lower than theirs or that they will be better than him. It’s just about where he realistic should be and probably is on the depth chart. That is behind Siegenthaler, Graves, probably Bahl with how he has played and probably not too far ahead of Okhotiuk if he finishes strong. He isn’t just going to be given his spot back or put in a top 4 spot because of his potentially to be good enough there at some point. It will have to be performance based. He will have to earn his spot back from Bahl and possibly Okhotiuk and then outperform Graves. I would bet good money that the devils and their management view it like that as well.

That is without even talking about the fact that the others are better stylistic fits and Smith as an offensive defensemen and power play QB doesn’t seem to be a great fit anymore when we have capable PP options in Hamilton and Severson wit Hughes coming too. Smith’s skillset isn’t what the devils need on D. They have offensive capable defensmen. They need to be better defensively and Smith is really bad defensively and was bad defensively in his rookie season as well.

If Fitzgerald was asked today which defenseman he thinks more highly of between Ty Smith and Kevin Bahl, and you forced Truth Serum down his throat, I think hed tell you Ty Smith.

And I dont think thats just a 'value' like you mention either. I think Ty still has legitimate 2nd pair 40pt potential due to his hockey IQ and Im not sure if our GM is going to let one awful sophomore season on a bottom-5 team take away from that.

Whether we as fans see the fit in three years when a Hughes Mukhamadullin etc are solid dmen, isnt exactly the outlook Fitzgerald can take when he has owners and players who want success sooner than later. Ty Smith is our best chance currently in the NHL at a 2nd pair LD next season behind Siegenthaler (if/when Graves leaves)

What we are experiencing is an influx of too many defenseman - not necessarily a bad thing. So its certainly a problem I welcome and the challenge is up to Fitz to take on.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

It's good to see that they have fun together.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

If Fitzgerald was asked today which defenseman he thinks more highly of between Ty Smith and Kevin Bahl, and you forced Truth Serum down his throat, I think hed tell you Ty Smith.

And I dont think thats just a 'value' like you mention either. I think Ty still has legitimate 2nd pair 40pt potential due to his hockey IQ and Im not sure if our GM is going to let one awful sophomore season on a bottom-5 team take away from that.

Whether we as fans see the fit in three years when a Hughes Mukhamadullin etc are solid dmen, isnt exactly the outlook Fitzgerald can take when he has owners and players who want success sooner than later. Ty Smith is our best chance currently in the NHL at a 2nd pair LD next season behind Siegenthaler (if/when Graves leaves)

What we are experiencing is an influx of too many defenseman - not necessarily a bad thing. So its certainly a problem I welcome and the challenge is up to Fitz to take on.

I don’t agree with that at all because Bahl has been much better. He may think Smith has more potential but anyone with working eyes can see that Bahl is better right now. And yes Ty has good potential but that potential shouldn’t keep him in the lineup if other players are performing better. That’s just not how you win hockey games.

Smith is also never gonna put up 40 points without playing on the top powerplay which is very unlikely to happen at any point next season or in the future on this team.
What makes Smith our 2nd best chance at a 2nd pair dman? He hasn’t shown that at the NHL level yet. Bahl has been much better than him. You don’t play a guy who’s been really bad off of potential.

I love how you talk about having success sooner which is really funny considering you’re talking about Smith playing over Bahl who’s been much better than him because of potential. That’s quite literally the worst way to have success sooner. Giving someone who hasn’t been as good a spot in the lineup because he was a higher pick and has more potential.

Smith has done absolutely nothing to deserve playing over Bahl. He certainly shouldn’t just because of his potential/draft status. His potential and draft status a long with a strong offensive rookie campaign is the only reason he wasn’t sent to the AHL long ago

 

[Bad Goalie]

Id agree entirely, but if I was to be making pairs based on possible outcomes and I had that top-4 I listed, Hughes with Smith is the best choice because of Lukes skating prowess being able to help support Ty when he gets caught, and likewise Ty is smart enough to stay back for Luke whereas Ty with Dougie would be an all-time poor defensive pairing.

Was just doing the best with what I had there, trying to give Ty the benefit of the doubt yaknow? I like him as a person and prospect, Id prefer he stays but only if it works out for us.

Many of the big scoring forwards have been accompanied by a point amassing D-man.
Orr with Espo
Coffee with Gretzky
Letang with Crosby
Bourque with Middleton, Neely
Robinson with Lafleur
Potvin with Bossy (Trottier a huge contributor also as his center)
Leetch, Housely, Chelios are a few more.
Just to mention a couple

Devils are far short of this kind of offensive D-man, but will need one as time progresses. Dougie Hamilton has been a consistent contributor to his team's offense with an average of 40+ Pts/season since his 3rd year in the NHL until this one hampered by injury, However that is not the kind of big point offensive D-man we are talking here. The Comets don't have that guy either,. Walsh with 40 in 68 games is there #1 D-man in points, but he is not a dynamic puck moving threat to score lots of points at 5 on 5 and really light it up running a PP in the NHL.

Karlsson, Hedman, Doughty, Keith, and Giordano, are guys we have seen in modern history.
Makar and Hughes are examples of the new blood.

If Rathbone can develop some better D-skills he has a chance to join those 2.

 

[Rydev]

I don’t agree with that at all because Bahl has been much better. He may think Smith has more potential but anyone with working eyes can see that Bahl is better right now. And yes Ty has good potential but that potential shouldn’t keep him in the lineup if other players are performing better. That’s just not how you win hockey games.

Smith is also never gonna put up 40 points without playing on the top powerplay which is very unlikely to happen at any point next season or in the future on this team.
What makes Smith our 2nd best chance at a 2nd pair dman? He hasn’t shown that at the NHL level yet. Bahl has been much better than him. You don’t play a guy who’s been really bad off of potential.

I love how you talk about having success sooner which is really funny considering you’re talking about Smith playing over Bahl who’s been much better than him because of potential. That’s quite literally the worst way to have success sooner. Giving someone who hasn’t been as good a spot in the lineup because he was a higher pick and has more potential.

At this point I think you're just projecting too much for Bahl. You're assuming his ~8-10 game sample size at the end of a lost season is a sure thing for telling us what he can be next season over 82.

Hed most certainly hit a rookie wall and he may very well be good defensively and nothing else, and that wouldnt fly on a 2nd pair.

Just like Ty had a bad year so could Bahl in two years after a great rookie season this year even. I feel as though you're really discrediting Smith unfairly while totally boosting up Bahl unfairly, and both should receive their chances this offseason.

But for you to be so sure about a 6'7" dman who has 12 NHL games being better than Ty next season... I just cant make that same claim unfortunately

 

[Oneiro]

Luke Hughes just changes the equation. That's probably the first line out of Fitz's mouth if you really put truth serum in his coffee re: Smith.

But hopefully Smith teaches you that you can't count on any short term performance to lock in a spot. So I'd pump the brakes on Bahl and Okhotiuk as well.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

I would think a copy of Nico’s contract would be reasonable for him…which is right in your ballpark.

Other than maybe for fantasy hockey, there is no way a one dimensional, undersized winger has the same value as a center capable of playing in all situations.

There was no clearer indicator of the value of both players than the recent game with Vegas.

As football coach Bill Parcells would say, "Video doesn't lie."

Let another team overpay for Bratt. The Devils are still feeling the affects of overpaying for one dimensional, mistake prone players like Bratt, Severson, Subban and Hamilton.

Let another team make that mistake this time around.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

@Slightly Stevens
At what point does performance become more important than potential? So many players don’t realize their potential.

If we were fighting for a playoff spot right now Bahl would certainly be playing over Smith because he’s clearly been better and would give us a better chance of winning. So why going into next season where we hope to fight for a playoff spot would we not play him over Smith to start assuming he does well in camp? Smith shouldn’t be handed the spot because of his potential. He needs to earn the spot with his performance. It’s that simple.

 

[StevenToddIves]

We’re not talking about value purely. Smith is likely viewed as having higher potential and more value in a potential trade. We’re not suggesting Smith’s value throughout the league is lower than theirs or that they will be better than him. It’s just about where he realistic should be and probably is on the depth chart. That is behind Siegenthaler, Graves, probably Bahl with how he has played and probably not too far ahead of Okhotiuk if he finishes strong. He isn’t just going to be given his spot back or put in a top 4 spot because of his potentially to be good enough there at some point. It will have to be performance based. He will have to earn his spot back from Bahl and possibly Okhotiuk and then outperform Graves. I would bet good money that the devils and their management view it like that as well.

That is without even talking about the fact that the others are better stylistic fits and Smith as an offensive defensemen and power play QB doesn’t seem to be a great fit anymore when we have capable PP options in Hamilton and Severson wit Hughes coming too. Smith’s skillset isn’t what the devils need on D. They have offensive capable defensmen. They need to be better defensively and Smith is really bad defensively and was bad defensively in his rookie season as well.

Agreed 100%. I'm not sure the talk about Smith's value being low makes much sense, because it will be much lower next year when he's 4th or 5th on the LD depth chart coming out of camp. Better to shop him this off-season and see what we can get back. The Devils have needs pretty much everywhere except LD -- RD, goaltending, depth C, a re-built 3rd line. Let's try to use Smith to help address them, and if not maybe get some valuable futures assets.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

At this point I think you're just projecting too much for Bahl. You're assuming his ~8-10 game sample size at the end of a lost season is a sure thing for telling us what he can be next season over 82.

Hed most certainly hit a rookie wall and he may very well be good defensively and nothing else, and that wouldnt fly on a 2nd pair.

Just like Ty had a bad year so could Bahl in two years after a great rookie season this year even. I feel as though you're really discrediting Smith unfairly while totally boosting up Bahl unfairly, and both should receive their chances this offseason.

But for you to be so sure about a 6'7" dman who has 12 NHL games being better than Ty next season... I just cant make that same claim unfortunately

Come on man. It’s a really simple concept. Bahl has been better than Smith so he should play over Smith. If Bahl starts playing poorly and Smith does better he should play over Bahl.

I’m not guaranteeing that Bahl will keep this up next season or that he’ll be better than Smith although his type of game is easier to maintain. He has just earned that spot over Smith by playing much better than him. Smith has to earn that spot back. He shouldn’t just get it back because of his higher potential/draft status.

His style of play is also a much better fit for what we need. And with that if he’s good defensively and fine but not great everywhere else that would absolutely fly.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Win #1 or 2 overall. Trade pick + for Matthew Tkachuk with extension.

Trade Bratt and Johnsson for Chychrun.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

I would think a copy of Nico’s contract would be reasonable for him…which is right in your ballpark.

Other than maybe for fantasy hockey, there is no way a one dimensional, undersized winger has the same value as a center capable of playing in all situations.

There was no clearer indicator of the value of both players than the recent game with Vegas.

As football coach Bill Parcells would say, "Video doesn't lie."

Let another team overpay for Bratt. The Devils are still feeling the affects of overpaying for one dimensional, mistake prone players like Bratt, Severson, Subban and Hamilton.

Let another team make that mistake this time around.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Win #1 or 2 overall. Trade pick + for Matthew Tkachuk with extension.

Trade Bratt and Johnsson for Chychrun.

Other than maybe for fantasy hockey, there is no way a one dimensional, undersized winger has the same value as a center capable of playing in all situations.

There was no clearer indicator of the value of both players than the recent game with Vegas.

As football coach Bill Parcells would say, "Video doesn't lie."

Let another team overpay for Bratt. The Devils are still feeling the affects of overpaying for one dimensional, mistake prone players like Bratt, Severson, Subban and Hamilton.

Let another team make that mistake this time around.

lmao, two games without a point and they start coming out of the woodwork.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I would suggest no one even responds to the post above.

Edit:
The one two above now.
Someone already responded to as I was typing this.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Wouldn't mind bringing PK back. Not as a player but like, as a friend to the team ya know. A professional friend if you will

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Wouldn't mind bringing PK back. Not as a player but like, as a friend to the team ya know. A professional friend if you will

A friend of mine who knows one of the players on the team told me about a year ago that apparently all of the young guys on the team love PK but that the older guys didn’t like him.

 

[Rydev]

Come on man. It’s a really simple concept. Bahl has been better than Smith so he should play over Smith. If Bahl starts playing poorly and Smith does better he should play over Bahl.

I’m not guaranteeing that Bahl will keep this up next season or that he’ll be better than Smith although his type of game is easier to maintain. He has just earned that spot over Smith by playing much better than him. Smith has to earn that spot back. He shouldn’t just get it back because of his higher potential/draft status.

His style of play is also a much better fit for what we need. And with that if he’s good defensively and fine but not great everywhere else that would absolutely fly.

Whats not simple is any of this, first of all. Im not sure why you keep saying that. If any of this was simple, GMs and professional scouts wouldnt be paid much nor would there be bad ones.

Ty Smith was a two-time winning CHL dman of the year and was taken in a draft class with the likes of Dahlin Hughes Bouchard Dobson etc..

You're essentially casting him aside for a guy who has 12 NHL games this year and, in his first stint here, looked dreadful. If such small sample sizes determined a career then wed be celebrating the careers of guys like Mark Fayne and Eric Gelinas

I think the world of both Bahl and Smith. I just think youre letting your fandom get in the way of reality here