Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXIV

[Rydev]

I don't think you can pair Smith with Hughes that just wouldn't work. Your basically pairing 2 offense minded players together. You ideally want to pair Hughes with a veteran who can play defense so Hughes can do his thing.

Id agree entirely, but if I was to be making pairs based on possible outcomes and I had that top-4 I listed, Hughes with Smith is the best choice because of Lukes skating prowess being able to help support Ty when he gets caught, and likewise Ty is smart enough to stay back for Luke whereas Ty with Dougie would be an all-time poor defensive pairing.

Was just doing the best with what I had there, trying to give Ty the benefit of the doubt yaknow? I like him as a person and prospect, Id prefer he stays but only if it works out for us.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

And with all that being said, Im guessing that Ty's competition in camp and during the season is more Ryan Graves than it is Nikita Ohkotyuk or Kevin Bahl.

Thats not to say Ty should be getting preferential treatment but instead that any realistic option for him involves taking over a top-4 LD spot. Or he switches sides and settles for a bottom pair role...

...because Ty on the 3LD long-term is about as realistic as me dating Mila Kunis. Shes just got too many other options who are bigger hunks than I am (shoutout Ashton Kutcher)

Bahl should be ahead of Smith in the pecking order right now and it seems as he is. Okhotiuk could be too with a strong finish. Smith may very well come into camp as the 4 or even 5 LD if Okhotiuk out performs him. And even though Graves hasn’t been great he’s miles ahead of Smith right now. Smith should have to come in looking really good to make the team next year and have a chance to earn his spot back.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

so really how much is Bratt going to get. he's had one hell of a freaking season I was hoping like 5.5m but I dont see how he doesnt gets 6-7+m at this point
thoughts?

 

[Rydev]

Bahl should be ahead of Smith in the pecking order right now and it seems as he is. Okhotiuk could be too with a strong finish. Smith may very well come into camp as the 4 or even 5 LD if Okhotiuk out performs him. And even though Graves hasn’t been great he’s miles ahead of Smith right now. Smith should have to come in looking really good to make the team next year and have a chance to earn his spot back.

While I agree with your sentiment on how those guys have played recently, I doubt the organization sees Bahl and Ohkotyuk above Smith right now. In fact Id bet they see Smith as Graves replacement whenever he leaves (deadline or after a playoff run).

Sophomore slumps for smaller defenseman are maybe the harshest if any sophomore slumps in hockey. Usually they are just awful defensively and get lost a lot.

Id wager the odds of Smith looking back to rookie form after the offseason are high and the fact that he has higher potential still reigns true over Bahl and Ohkotyuk, who idt have top-4 d qualities outside of becoming Siegenthaler-level defenders.

 

[Nubmer6]

I think Bahl and Okhotiuk are ready. Okhotiuk looked good in camp and has consistently been good in the AHL. I thought he deserved a call up quite a while ago before Bahl and I’m pretty sure other people on here did too. Bahl was always a solid prospect and has shown well in the NHL over the last 9-10 games.

Bahl and Okhotiuk only LOOK ready because Nadreddine hasn't coached the defense out of them yet.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

While I agree with your sentiment on how those guys have played recently, I doubt the organization sees Bahl and Ohkotyuk above Smith right now. In fact Id bet they see Smith as Graves replacement whenever he leaves (deadline or after a playoff run).

Sophomore slumps for smaller defenseman are maybe the harshest if any sophomore slumps in hockey. Usually they are just awful defensively and get lost a lot.

Id wager the odds of Smith looking back to rookie form after the offseason are high and the fact that he has higher potential still reigns true over Bahl and Ohkotyuk, who idt have top-4 d qualities outside of becoming Siegenthaler-level defenders.

It quite literally seems they do have Bahl over Smith. Smith is literally getting scratched over him right now. And Bahl outperforming him since coming up should definitely put him above Smith who has had a terrible season. And why would they see Smith as Graves replacement when he’s been terrible defensively, they have other young defensmen who are playing better and are certainly better defensively and when they have Luke Hughes and Mukhammadullin coming. Hughes seems like the obvious replacement for Graves right now.

Even Smith getting back to his rookie season level isn’t good enough especially considering he won’t be running the top powerplay. He’s been bad defensively ever since he’s come into the league and the only way he’ll make up for that is by being a top powerplay guy and putting up really good offensive numbers. And If Okhotiuk and/or Bahl become Siegenthaler level defenders that would be great for this team and they would be very capable too 4 players and good fits alongside players like Luke Hughes, Dougie Hamailton and Severson.

Bahl is almost certainly viewed as higher in the pecking order than Smith right now and there is no good reason he wouldn’t be.

 

[McDuffz88]

While I agree with your sentiment on how those guys have played recently, I doubt the organization sees Bahl and Ohkotyuk above Smith right now. In fact Id bet they see Smith as Graves replacement whenever he leaves (deadline or after a playoff run).

Sophomore slumps for smaller defenseman are maybe the harshest if any sophomore slumps in hockey. Usually they are just awful defensively and get lost a lot.

Id wager the odds of Smith looking back to rookie form after the offseason are high and the fact that he has higher potential still reigns true over Bahl and Ohkotyuk, who idt have top-4 d qualities outside of becoming Siegenthaler-level defenders.

I disagree. I think management/coaches also sees this. Theres a reason why Smith keeps getting benched. Not too mention Fitz wants more physical players. Smith is not only non physical, hes slow & has no defense. Smith aint a Graves replacement because they are completely different players. The only reason why people want Smith on the team is because of his draft status. If Bahl or Okhotuik were drafted in his spot we wouldn't even be having this arguement. We need to look past draft positions. Draft status means absolutely nothing. Just take a look at Zacha and McLeod. Both horrible for where they were selected. Being outplayed by players taken in the later rounds.

 

[Rydev]

It quite literally seems they do have Bahl over Smith. Smith is literally getting scratched over him right now. And Bahl outperforming him since coming up should definitely put him above Smith who has had a terrible season. And why would they see Smith as Graves replacement when he’s been terrible defensively, they have other young defensmen who are playing better and are certainly better defensively and when they have Luke Hughes and Mukhammadullin coming. Hughes seems like the obvious replacement for Graves right now.

Even Smith getting back to his rookie season level isn’t good enough especially considering he won’t be running the top powerplay. He’s been bad defensively ever since he’s come into the league and the only way he’ll make up for that is by being a top powerplay guy and putting up really good offensive numbers. And If Okhotiuk and/or Bahl become Siegenthaler level defenders that would be great for this team and they would be very capable too 4 players and good fits alongside players like Luke Hughes, Dougie Hamailton and Severson.

Bahl is almost certainly viewed as higher in the pecking order than Smith right now and there is no good reason he wouldn’t be.

I disagree. I think management/coaches also sees this. Theres a reason why Smith keeps getting benched. Not too mention Fitz wants more physical players. Smith is not only non physical, hes slow & has no defense. Smith aint a Graves replacement because they are completely different players. The only reason why people want Smith on the team is because of his draft status. If Bahl or Okhotuik were drafted in his spot we wouldn't even be having this arguement. We need to look past draft positions. Draft status means absolutely nothing. Just take a look at Zacha and McLeod. Both horrible for where they were selected. Being outplayed by players taken in the later rounds.

Bahl playing over Smith doesnt necessarily mean the organization sees him as more valuable to us, in fact id bet its just a case of getting one or two other guys playing time before the season ends. thats way more important than letting Ty play out the last ~10 games at prime minutes when hes about to have off five months.

Plus, if anything, his last eight games tell us the team was seeing improvement from him back to his old form because they were playing him back at his old minutes again (18-20)

Come training camp Im not so sure Ty will be competing for the third pair but instead the 2nd pair and, if that doesnt work, hed be moved. And to me that means they see him as more of a talent than Bahl or Ohkotyuk, who very well could see sophomore slumps just like Ty if they made the team.

Bahl would have to be just incredible in camp to steal the LD2 spot while Smith would just have to play like he did a year ago. One needs market improvement and one only needs to get back to what he was.

 

[McDuffz88]

Bahl playing over Smith doesnt necessarily mean the organization sees him as more valuable to us, in fact id bet its just a case of getting one or two other guys playing time before the season ends. thats way more important than letting Ty play out the last ~10 games at prime minutes when hes about to have off five months.

Plus, if anything, his last eight games tell us the team was seeing improvement from him back to his old form because they were playing him back at his old minutes again (18-20)

Come training camp Im not so sure Ty will be competing for the third pair but instead the 2nd pair and, if that doesnt work, hed be moved. And to me that means they see him as more of a talent than Bahl or Ohkotyuk, who very well could see sophomore slumps just like Ty if they made the team.

Bahl would have to be just incredible in camp to steal the LD2 spot while Smith would just have to play like he did a year ago. One needs market improvement and one only needs to get back to what he was.

No offense but your out to lunch if you think Ty Smith is competing for 2nd pair duties next year. Dude can barely hold his own roster spot yet somehow he is magically upgraded to top 4? Who is he playing over? Siegs, Graves, Hamilton, Severson? Its not happening at all. No they aren't sitting Smith to take a look at other guys, they are sitting him because he is horrible & by far the worst player on the ice not named Gillies or Hammond. Lindy is competing for his job right now because he will most probably be fired. You really think he isn't trying to play the best players available right now?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Bahl playing over Smith doesnt necessarily mean the organization sees him as more valuable to us, in fact id bet its just a case of getting one or two other guys playing time before the season ends. thats way more important than letting Ty play out the last ~10 games at prime minutes when hes about to have off five months.

Plus, if anything, his last eight games tell us the team was seeing improvement from him back to his old form because they were playing him back at his old minutes again (18-20)

Come training camp Im not so sure Ty will be competing for the third pair but instead the 2nd pair and, if that doesnt work, hed be moved. And to me that means they see him as more of a talent than Bahl or Ohkotyuk, who very well could see sophomore slumps just like Ty if they made the team.

Bahl would have to be just incredible in camp to steal the LD2 spot while Smith would just have to play like he did a year ago. One needs market improvement and one only needs to get back to what he was.

That’s not how the NHL or any competitive sports works man. Sure if you have a strong and long track record you get some benefit of the doubt. But Smith doesn’t have that.
Smith has played terribly and doing that has given other people the opportunity to take his spot. Bahl has come in and been significantly better than him. He is above Smith in the pecking order and Smith has to earn that spot back.

You haven’t given one good reason why Smith should start next season ahead of Bahl. All you’ve said is that he’s more of talent (essentially drafted higher) which means absolutely nothing at this point.

Also not sure why you’re talking about Smith taking the LD spot from Graves. Smith playing like he did on his rookie season still wouldn’t be good enough to displace Graves. He wasn’t that good in his rookie season. He did well offensively and put up some nice numbers but was bad defensively. Bahl has literally been better all around this season since his first two bad games than Smith was in his rookie season. Smith has fallen down the lineup with his poor play and has to earn his way back up and be better than he was in his rookie season if he wants to be the 2LD.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

No offense but your out to lunch if you think Ty Smith is competing for 2nd pair duties next year. Dude can barely hold his own roster spot yet somehow he is magically upgraded to top 4? Who is he playing over? Siegs, Graves, Hamilton, Severson? Its not happening at all. No they aren't sitting Smith to take a look at other guys, they are sitting him because he is horrible & by far the worst player on the ice not named Gillies or Hammond. Lindy is competing for his job right now because he will most probably be fired. You really think he isn't trying to play the best players available right now?

He literally hasn’t played like and NHL player this season. Like if it wasn’t for a strong offensive rookie season and being a 1st round pick he would’ve been in the AHL a long time ago and probably not played many games this season.

 

[Guttersniped]

I don’t think Smith would gain much trade value by playing here another year. His youth and still being on his ELC would be big selling points. A team either thinks something is there or they don’t, the concept of a sophomore slump for a young defenseman is well-known.

Waiting a bit until he improves before trading him doesn’t make much sense. I doubt he’s improves a ton and then we would trade him as an unsigned RFA, which lowers his trade value, or sign him to a bridge deal. He would have to really have a breakthrough year for it to matter IMO.

Smith has more offense then this, he was a little unlucky this year after being little lucky as a rookie. We wouldn’t be dumping his body in the river, we would get something back. Him potentially improving elsewhere shouldn’t bother people. We should only keep him if we plan on keeping him longterm.

Graves and Severson both being UFAs next off-season does mean our defense can go in a lot of directions. Smith being a PP only guy doesn’t help us much.

Severson, Graves and Sieg were our main PK guys. Subban had more reduced role on the PK this season. Hamilton did very little Pking after coming back from injury.

Bahl is up to 0:54 TOI/GP on the PK, tied with Subban.

Bahl has done it for a total of 10:54 in 12 games. Smith has a total of 5:49 in 63 games. Jaros got a total of 3:28 in 11 games. So, yeah, Smith’s not doing that.

As people have pointed out, it’s hard to see where he will get his future PP time. I don’t see him as a big minute muncher in the near future so it’s hard to see him as Graves replacement. (Not sure we can afford to keep Graves though.)

I’m torn here because Fitz talks a lot about “hockey trades” but I’m not particularly convinced that Fitz would handle Smith with his trade value in mind. So I doubt we move early on Smith when he’s cheap and we have long term team control.

 

[Devils731]

More audition time.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Ty Smith has not been that bad over his last 20. He was unacceptably bad to start the year, but since March his numbers look okay.

 

[My3Sons]

Ideal 2022-23 Lineup

Sharangovich Hughes Mercer
Bratt Hischier Holtz
Tatar Boqvist (New top 6 W)
Wood Mcleod Bastian
Kuokkonen Thompson Zetterlund

Graves Hamilton
Siegenthaler Severson
Okhotiuk/Bahl (New 3rd pair RD)
Okhotiuk/Bahl (New depth fill in D)

(NewGoalie)
Blackwood
Daws


Out:
Zacha
Johnsson
Vesey
Subban
Smith
White
Hammond
Gilles

In:
Top 6 Winger
3rd pair RD
Fill in depth defensmen
Capable Starting Goalie

Not enough Lovejoy.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ty Smith has not been that bad over his last 20. He was unacceptably bad to start the year, but since March his numbers look okay.

He still hasn’t been good enough. And Bahl has been good. Bahl should be ahead of him right now and Smith should have to earn that spot back. The guy above is talking about him competing with Graves for the number 2 spot going into next year for some reason. I think he’s probably competing with Bahl and Okhotiuk for the number 3 and 4 spots realistically.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

More audition time.

Fun. I’m not overly excited about him but we’ll see what he can do.

 

[My3Sons]

so really how much is Bratt going to get. he's had one hell of a freaking season I was hoping like 5.5m but I dont see how he doesnt gets 6-7+m at this point
thoughts?

Allegedly they've been negotiating a contract for a few weeks. Bratt's recent swoon started relatively soon after that. My speculation is it isn't going all that well so far and it's impacting his play a bit. I don't doubt the team has offered something semi-reasonable from the team perspective, and probably close to $7 mil per on a long term deal. My guess is Bratt wants something close to $9 on a shorter term deal like Kaprizov got from Minnesota. Maybe they arrive at something close to $8 mil for 5 years? Hard to say. Fitz hasn't had to cross this kind of bridge yet, seeing as his only big deal was with Hughes which went quickly and easily. Last time around he and Bratt's agent couldn't see eye to eye on anything beyond the arbitration free RFA years. I'd like Bratt to be with NJ long term and hopefully he will be willing to compromise with something semi-reasonable from the player perspective.

 

[FooteBahl]

Fun. I’m not overly excited about him but we’ll see what he can do.

This completes me lol

 

[Bad Goalie]

They really are though. Go watch all of Okhotiuk shifts last night. Lots of nice outlet passes. Same as when he was in the AHL. Bahl is a solid puck mover too.

Incidentally, for those who haven't actually watched the Comets since the middle of the season Bahl has played a lot of RD with Wotherspon and Okhotyuk as his left side partner. Maybe the Devils were trying to see something in that possibility.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Allegedly they've been negotiating a contract for a few weeks. Bratt's recent swoon started relatively soon after that. My speculation is it isn't going all that well so far and it's impacting his play a bit. I don't doubt the team has offered something semi-reasonable from the team perspective, and probably close to $7 mil per on a long term deal. My guess is Bratt wants something close to $9 on a shorter term deal like Kaprizov got from Minnesota. Maybe they arrive at something close to $8 mil for 5 years? Hard to say. Fitz hasn't had to cross this kind of bridge yet, seeing as his only big deal was with Hughes which went quickly and easily. Last time around he and Bratt's agent couldn't see eye to eye on anything beyond the arbitration free RFA years. I'd like Bratt to be with NJ long term and hopefully he will be willing to compromise with something semi-reasonable from the player perspective.

Well lets hope he takes a bridge deal closer to 6m or something
this year has been pretty crazy alot of guys having career years.
if NJ signs him long term at that dollar I hope this isnt a flash in the pan season

 

[My3Sons]

Well lets hope he takes a bridge deal closer to 6m or something
this year has been pretty crazy alot of guys having career years.
if NJ signs him long term at that dollar I hope this isnt a flash in the pan season

He's been a very good player since he broke into the league. He needed some polish, he needed to stay healthy, he needed to continue to round out how to be successful against bigger players but you've seen the speed, skill, and smarts since he was a rookie. I'm not sure if he's an 80+ point player over a full year but I have no issues saying he's probably a 70+ point player over a full season. A two year bridge deal isn't great for either side. Sure, Bratt could settle on two years at an arbitration salary (maybe something close to $7 mil?) but if he snaps an ankle next week he's left a lot of money on the table. Plus there is the concept of diminishing returns. He's a small winger who has to score to be successful. With cap space still at a premium, what team gives him $8 mil per on a seven year deal if he's a UFA? I'm not sure the big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is as big as Kaprizov's was. We will see.

 

[Omar Little]

Trade Smith as part of a package to get a player of need (middle 6 physical forward or bottom pairing right handed defensive defenseman) and be done with it.

If we’re serious about improving the team there are better players (internally or externally) who can play the role he has been asked to play this year.

 

[Rydev]

No offense but your out to lunch if you think Ty Smith is competing for 2nd pair duties next year. Dude can barely hold his own roster spot yet somehow he is magically upgraded to top 4? Who is he playing over? Siegs, Graves, Hamilton, Severson? Its not happening at all. No they aren't sitting Smith to take a look at other guys, they are sitting him because he is horrible & by far the worst player on the ice not named Gillies or Hammond. Lindy is competing for his job right now because he will most probably be fired. You really think he isn't trying to play the best players available right now?

That’s not how the NHL or any competitive sports works man. Sure if you have a strong and long track record you get some benefit of the doubt. But Smith doesn’t have that.
Smith has played terribly and doing that has given other people the opportunity to take his spot. Bahl has come in and been significantly better than him. He is above Smith in the pecking order and Smith has to earn that spot back.

You haven’t given one good reason why Smith should start next season ahead of Bahl. All you’ve said is that he’s more of talent (essentially drafted higher) which means absolutely nothing at this point.

Also not sure why you’re talking about Smith taking the LD spot from Graves. Smith playing like he did on his rookie season still wouldn’t be good enough to displace Graves. He wasn’t that good in his rookie season. He did well offensively and put up some nice numbers but was bad defensively. Bahl has literally been better all around this season since his first two bad games than Smith was in his rookie season. Smith has fallen down the lineup with his poor play and has to earn his way back up and be better than he was in his rookie season if he wants to be the 2LD.

Just for clarification, Im not stating these things as my personal viewpoint on the matter but instead what I think management is thinking. Just trying to get different angles on the subject so we arent caught off-guard later on

While I dont inherently disagree with anything either of you have said, I just see it as unrealistic to expect Fitzgerald and co's value/outlook on Ty Smith to have, over a single years time, plumetted from top-4 future dman to not even seen as higher than two sub-20NHL game defenseman. And to then trade said player as well.

Its a pretty large leap in faith for an organization that has taken things relatively slow

 

[Nubmer6]

Not enough Lovejoy.

There never is.