Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[SteveCangialosi123]

You’ve got to give to get. Don’t be too disappointed if a fan favorite has to leave in order to get Timo. Trust me, 2 years down the road you won’t even remember.

In two years I could see the gap between Meier and Mercer closing significantly. The money difference alone makes it an easy no thanks for me.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

In two years I could see the gap between Meier and Mercer closing significantly. The money difference alone makes it an easy no thanks for me.

Mercer is doing better in his second year than Meier did. Will he better than Meier? Who honestly knows and the answer is most likely not since Meier has developed into such a stud but I don't know you trade Mercer with that type of potential.

 

[JrFischer54]

You’ve got to give to get. Don’t be too disappointed if a fan favorite has to leave in order to get Timo. Trust me, 2 years down the road you won’t even remember.

posters on here will always care more about what if futures and the salary cap that isn't going to change. oh and age of a player too.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yeah how dare us care about ages of players? the HORROR!

 

[Devs3cups]

As @HBK27 mentioned above, Scott Wheeler shared his top 50 Drafted NHL Prospects. Cooley is ranked #1, right ahead of Luke (who’s #2). I don’t see it personally, but it’s whatever. Luke is the number 1 D prospect in the league.

Nemec is at 4. We have 2 of the top 3 D-men on the list.

Holtz is at 22, he was at 17 last year.

Man, not too shabby. Having arguably the 2 best D prospects in the game is exciting as hell.

 

[tailfins]

What do people think Mercer's potential is?

Right now, I see him as a rich man's Blake Coleman. High motor, reasonably good IQ, good speed. Great middle six player. Kind of player you can win a cup with on the third line.

Can he get past that? Does he have another gear - the way that Zach Hyman is now over ppg with the Oilers?

One obvious issue with the Coleman / Hyman comparisons is physical: Coleman has 20 pounds on Mercer, and Hyman has 30 pounds on him. Mercer is obviously young, but I can't imagine that he'll be playing 30 pounds heavier.

Corollary to this question is: what does Mercer's next contract look like?

 

[Nocashstyle]

posters on here will always care more about what if futures and the salary cap that isn't going to change. oh and age of a player too.

There’s this thing called the salary cap.

It’s not as simple as “this player better than this player!”

Age, term, and contract status all play a massive role in building a team. You understand that, right?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

What do people think Mercer's potential is?

Right now, I see him as a rich man's Blake Coleman. High motor, reasonably good IQ, good speed. Great middle six player. Kind of player you can win a cup with on the third line.

Can he get past that? Does he have another gear - the way that Zach Hyman is now over ppg with the Oilers?

One obvious issue with the Coleman / Hyman comparisons is physical: Coleman has 20 pounds on Mercer, and Hyman has 30 pounds on him. Mercer is obviously young, but I can't imagine that he'll be playing 30 pounds heavier.

Corollary to this question is: what does Mercer's next contract look like?

Zach Parise lite, and I'd try to get him on something cheap long term too. It boned us with Bratt and has worked with Nico/Jack. Let's get another steal of a contract at the forward spot.

 

[JimEIV]

What do people think Mercer's potential is?

Right now, I see him as a rich man's Blake Coleman. High motor, reasonably good IQ, good speed. Great middle six player. Kind of player you can win a cup with on the third line.

Can he get past that? Does he have another gear - the way that Zach Hyman is now over ppg with the Oilers?

One obvious issue with the Coleman / Hyman comparisons is physical: Coleman has 20 pounds on Mercer, and Hyman has 30 pounds on him. Mercer is obviously young, but I can't imagine that he'll be playing 30 pounds heavier.

Corollary to this question is: what does Mercer's next contract look like?

I think Mercer is more skilled than a Coleman. With the attributes you spoke about coupled with a higher level of skill you really have the makings for a very good complete player.

I don't know what Mercer will become but I think he has the tools to be a very good player.

 

[Guttersniped]

There’s this thing called the salary cap.

It’s not as simple as “this play better than this player!”

Age, term, and contract status all play a massive role in building a team. You understand that, right?

Nope. Also assets management don’t real.

Same old same old, not going to change.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

posters on here will always care more about what if futures and the salary cap that isn't going to change. oh and age of a player too.

Do you have amnesia? That's the same mentality that got into a 10 year rebuild.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I don’t think Mercer has the offensive ceiling as Meier. But I do think he has bonafide top 6 potential. High motor and versatile putting up 60 points in prime years.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I think Mercer is more skilled than a Coleman. With the attributes you spoke about coupled with a higher level of skill you really have the makings for a very good complete player.

I don't know what Mercer will become but I think he has the tools to be a very good player.

Mercer is Parise incarnated but he's a way worse of a play driver. Also Coleman was pretty damn good, I would kill for him with this team this year.

I don’t think Mercer has the offensive ceiling as Meier. But I do think he has bonafide top 6 potential. High motor and versatile putting up 60 points in prime years.

Yeah, that's what I agree with. I doubt he's better than Meier is right now at age 26 himself but you can't blame the Devils for balking at him in a deal. Team needs good ELC's to round out this roster regardless a Meier trade.

 

[JimEIV]

Parise or Coleman don't seem to be great comparables for Mercer in my opinion...those players are 100% motor that's not really Mercer.

I see more of a Langenbrunner comparable personally.

 

[JrFischer54]

Do you have amnesia? That's the same mentality that got into a 10 year rebuild.

really thats why?

There’s this thing called the salary cap.

It’s not as simple as “this player better than this player!”

Age, term, and contract status all play a massive role in building a team. You understand that, right?

its absolutely as simple as that.

 

[JrFischer54]

so people comparing mercer to parise/coleman/langs as reasons to keep him over being the piece that lands TM. thats certainly an interesting take on here. all 3 former devils mentioned all very very good players but TM over them imo.

 

[tailfins]

Parise or Coleman don't seem to be great compatibles for Mercer in my opinion...those players are 100% motor that's not really Mercer.

I see more of a Langenbrunner comparable personally.

Langs is an interesting comp.

ZZ Pops was a ton of fun. Great cycling and possession line. But, Langenbrunner always felt like a more complementary piece to that line. He seemed more like a 2nd line player who was on the top line because of fit.

Edit: also, I think that having smart players who can be moved up and down the line up is critical for a winning team, but I think teams can't overpay these players. Obviously, we've been in a weird environment the past few years where cap impacts have been magnified. But, I think getting Mercer to a longer term deal that's under $5 million ($4.5?) would make him more important to the team. I don't have Evolving Hockey access, so not sure how on target I am with that thinking (nor do I have a good sense of 2024-2025 cap projections).

 

[JimEIV]

As @HBK27 mentioned above, Scott Wheeler shared his top 50 Drafted NHL Prospects. Cooley is ranked #1, right ahead of Luke (who’s #2). I don’t see it personally, but it’s whatever. Luke is the number 1 D prospect in the league.

Nemec is at 4. We have 2 of the top 3 D-men on the list.

Holtz is at 22, he was at 17 last year.

Man, not too shabby. Having arguably the 2 best D prospects in the game is exciting as hell.

Somebody that has Holtz as a top 20 prospect shouldn't be taken seriously in my opinion... He's probably not top 10 from his own draft class let alone all prospects.

 

[Guttersniped]

Mercer is also a C/W, that makes him incredibly useful.

Look at Tampa, they honed in on getting C/W. They’re very versatile and works throughout the line-up.

Mercer is just exactly the kind of player you want on a current NHL line-up, his style of play and skills are exactly what you want in a modern forward.

I don’t give a shit what his projection is, he’s one of the most useful players we have in his 2nd season of professional hockey. You don’t trade him.

His character and intangibles are also off the charts, it’s just no. And I can’t stress enough that IDGAF about point projections with him. He’ll produce.

 

[OmNomNom]

mercer is and will be a solid middle 6 guy, but if he's the way we can get meier, then i'd do it (even though i'd be sad about it). but if grier asks for a ton more in addition, i'd hang up the phone

 

[JrFischer54]

Mercer is Parise incarnated but he's a way worse of a play driver. Also Coleman was pretty damn good, I would kill for him with this team this year.



Yeah, that's what I agree with. I doubt he's better than Meier is right now at age 26 himself but you can't blame the Devils for balking at him in a deal. Team needs good ELC's to round out this roster regardless a Meier trade.

no this team needs top line talent. mercer ecl is up after next year if people are correct and he trends up to coleman/parise level he isn't going to be as "cheap" as people think he will. i love mercer i rather keep him then lose him but you have to give to get.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

no this team needs top line talent. mercer ecl is up after next year if people are correct and he trends up to coleman/parise level he isn't going to be as "cheap" as people think he will. i love mercer i rather keep him then lose him but you have to give to get.

So trade your depth/potential cheapest top 6 forward for Meier along with a first rounder that you can supplant the bottom of the roster with ELC's to build a roster. That seems smart, not.

 

[Devs3cups]

Somebody that has Holtz as a top 20 prospect shouldn't be taken seriously in my opinion... He's probably not top 10 from his own draft class let alone all prospects.

He’s at 22 right now. So not exactly top-20. Here’s Wheeler’s write up for context. Not to shamelessly plug, but I’d definitely recommend everyone to subscribe. I personally really appreciate Wheeler’s work with these.

So yeah, here’s his writeup about Holtz:

It has taken Holtz maybe a little longer to “make it” than I think fans expect out of a top-10 pick, but he only just turned 21 a couple of weeks ago, he played to a point per game in the AHL at 19 and 20, and I’m still confident he’s going to become a goal-scoring top-six winger. He’s got a coveted blend of skill, power and shooting which allows him to create his own looks and then finish off of them with a variety of release points and shot types (or play off of the puck from a playmaker and get open with his timing). He’s got a pro frame and strength (6-foot, 195 pounds) which allows him to play through bumps, win battles, and get off the wall. But he’s also got underrated playmaking sense (I’ve often argued that his ability as a shooter is overstated and his ability in facilitation has been understated). While he still needs to get a little quicker, he has worked hard to lean out and play a little quicker to maximize those other natural tools. His small-area skill has improved. He has worked on his one-timer so that it can catch up to his powerful and accurate wrist shot release. He’s got a soft touch off of his forehand and backhand, and he’s a dual-threat inside the offensive zone. I expect him to play full-time next year and begin to realize his potential after another summer of training.

I mostly agree with his positive and negative assessments here.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

What do people think Mercer's potential is?

Right now, I see him as a rich man's Blake Coleman. High motor, reasonably good IQ, good speed. Great middle six player. Kind of player you can win a cup with on the third line.

Can he get past that? Does he have another gear - the way that Zach Hyman is now over ppg with the Oilers?

One obvious issue with the Coleman / Hyman comparisons is physical: Coleman has 20 pounds on Mercer, and Hyman has 30 pounds on him. Mercer is obviously young, but I can't imagine that he'll be playing 30 pounds heavier.

Corollary to this question is: what does Mercer's next contract look like?

Zach Hyman is my exact comparable for Mercer.

I think he's going to be Hyman 2.0

And yeah I'll agree with the posters above - you do not trade Dawson Mercer.

I wouldn't do Mercer for Meier 1 for 1.

 

[Devils731]

I don’t think Mercer has a great comparable.

He’s an offensive forward without good skating but has a high motor that makes up for a lot of that lack of that ability.

He has really good hands that he can use to deke opponents while keeping his feet moving. It’s a quality ability that not many have but because his skating isn’t high level opponents do have time to recover sometimes.

He isn’t a great finisher but he isn’t bad either. Doesn’t trust his shot yet at the NHL level and should probably shoot more than he does.

He is willing to go to the dirty areas of the ice to try and make plays but isn’t fast enough nor strong enough to routinely beat defenders there.

—————————-

So who does he look like from the past? I’d argue nobody, he has a weird profile. This doesn’t make it a bad profile but half of him looks like a meat and potato mucker who needs better physicality but he also looks like a finesse player who ties up defenders 1 on 1 who needs higher level skating.

Mercer is trying to blend his 2 strengths together in a unique package that I think can be effective. If he ends up improving either his strength or his skating then he probably really unlocks a version of himself that can be high impact.