Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[NjdevilfanJim]

Here’s the deal.

2 seasons of Markstrom at 6M, might actually be a deal. (Regardless of age)

Bob (35):10m
Vasilevskiy (29): 9.5m
Helly (30): 8.5
Ullmark (30): 5M (will be 32)
Saros 28: 5m (will be 30)
Sarokin 28: 8.25

Ullmark/Saros are the best alternatives to Markstrom, but they are top goalies who will be in their 30s making north of 6m. Thats if Fitz waits until they are UFAs. There is still the issue with trades.

This summers (2024)goalie market is bleak. I don’t see any upgrades. Next summer (2025) its Sarros, Ullmark, maybe Vejmelka.

I think they favor Markstrom as he gets them a solid vet to help Daws Schmid and eventually Malek...I think they feel that's their best long term option as Saros would be good but a lot of cost and term...No matter every move has risk but that move allows them cap flexibility whereas Saros imo is all in if it fails could hurt with keeping young players off elc's

 

[devilsblood]

He’s out there for 2.13 GF per 60 vs 3.05 expected GF per 60. He creates many chances — no D out there for more scoring chances per 60. The puck not going in is obviously coloring your perception.

Are we still using xGf after that NYR debacle which we "dominated"?

If so then Ruff should def be back next year.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Are we still using xGf after that NYR debacle which we "dominated"?

If so then Ruff should def be back next year.

I genuinely don’t know what games you’re watching if you don’t think Luke creates offense well. It’s not as though you really need the stats to see this — try opening your eyes.

 

[Triumph]

Except one season? Vitek wound up cratering by the end of the season and in the playoffs. He happened to last a bit longer than the others…that’s what you’re going with to dispute the pattern?

Some of the goalies we used aren’t in the league anymore…ok and? Some of them are. What exactly do you think this proves?

And xG is trash, I don’t need to know about any other team to know that. Anything that judges scoring chances based almost strictly off of location is f***ing dumb. Another bet I’d be willing to make is that in 5 years xG as it’s used today is gonna be recognized as the idiotically flawed analysis that it is, and will be abandoned.

What do I think this proves? That you don't pay attention and just make blanket statements. Blackwood isn't any better in San Jose. The rest of the garbage squad from 21-22 is gone except Wedgewood who had a very solid year last year and fell back to earth this year.

xG will only be abandoned because someone will come up with something better, not because xG is 'idiotic' and 'trash'. It tells you a hell of a lot more than just remembering the game.

I genuinely don’t know what games you’re watching if you don’t think Luke creates offense well. It’s not as though you really need the stats to see this — try opening your eyes.

In fairness, I do think Luke isn't quite all there at using space, but here's the thing - that won't even be reflected in xG much, because those errors often don't result in shots directed towards the net. So he has a higher ceiling than that.

 

[devilsblood]

I genuinely don’t know what games you’re watching if you don’t think Luke creates offense well. It’s not as though you really need the stats to see this — try opening your eyes.

Again literally the worst offensive production amongst d-men.

But I don't really want to rag on Luke so I'll drop it.

Thought it was interesting though.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Again literally the worst offensive production amongst d-men.

But I don't really want to rag on Luke so I'll drop it.

Thought it was interesting though.

Not that interesting of a stat unless you just want to make weird little arguments. It’s pretty easy to see an unsustainably low number of pucks are going in with him out there. Maybe it’s him and in fact Kevin Bahl and Brendan Smith are driving offense better. A believable story.

 

[ZYXWVUT]

Not sure if anyone saw this quick tidbit from Jeff Marek’s blog post today:

• Is the New Jersey Devils' bigger issue goaltending or a lack of blueliners who can defend? Some around the league believe the Devils' goalies are getting an unfair ride when the real issue exists in front of them.

Food for thought. I mean I don’t disagree but I think the goaltending certainly cannot be overlooked at all because it’s still probably the crux of the issues. But I would say also comes back to coaching and lack of any true structure to fall back on.

 

[guitarguyvic]

What do I think this proves? That you don't pay attention and just make blanket statements. Blackwood isn't any better in San Jose. The rest of the garbage squad from 21-22 is gone except Wedgewood who had a very solid year last year and fell back to earth this year.

With all due respect I really don’t care that they’re all gone. We fully exposed them as being not good goaltender and facilitated/contributed to it which led to their exit from the league…this really does nothing to bolster your point, at all.

xG will only be abandoned because someone will come up with something better, not because xG is 'idiotic' and 'trash'. It tells you a hell of a lot more than just remembering the game.

Wow it tells me more than just remembering the game, amazing. So do a host of other stats, some of which are better than others. The problem with xG is that it doesn’t do a good job of doing what it portends to do. You have people here who cite it almost exclusively to judge performance. It’s trash, and I don’t take it anymore seriously than someone who tries to tell me Dylan Demelo is the third best defender in the league based on plus/minus.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

With all due respect I really don’t care that they’re all gone. We fully exposed them as being not good goaltender and facilitated/contributed to it which led to their exit from the league…this really does nothing to bolster your point, at all.


Wow it tells me more than just remembering the game, amazing. So do a host of other stats, some of which are better than others. The problem with xG is that it doesn’t do a good job of doing what it portends to do. You have people here who cite it almost exclusively to judge performance. It’s trash, and I don’t take it anymore seriously than someone who tries to tell me Dylan Demelo is the third best defender in the league based on plus/minus.

Anyone who does that just does advanced stats a disservice. I'd argue, for the most part, they're very beneficial and help tell the story but the eye test should definitely be incorporated when making those judgements. The Devils missed the playoffs in 2013 when they were the best corsi team in the league, outliers happen. It shouldn't be a case to call advanced stats shit because those things happen.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

You are welcome.

LMAO

The only one that really plays like Marty is Shesty, the rest are all more technically sound and can't play the puck lol

 

[Homedresser]

And it’s a big reason why I can never get on Fitz for the goaltending situation. He has tried to solve it every season he’s been in charge.

I know people don’t like that he hasn’t made a move to this point, but as I’ve stated before, the goaltending market league wide has been stagnant due to the sellers controlling the market. No one has blinked yet on a goalie who is worth a damn.

Have to disagreeon the first part. After the playoffs last year he needed to bring some new blood into training camp. Bringing any goalie into camp to tryout or push the incumbents would have been better than annointing the job to VV and Schmid. Running it back with those two after their playoff performance without even a competition was a huge mistake.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Have to disagreeon the first part. After the playoffs last year he needed to bring some new blood into training camp. Bringing any goalie into camp to tryout or push the incumbents would have been better than annointing the job to VV and Schmid. Running it back with those two after their playoff performance without even a competition was a huge mistake.

Meh, the issue there was not having either on a short leash. It was fine to go into the year with both of them since Winnipeg's price was high on Helly (good reason, I don't fault them, I understand them doing it more so than CGY with Markstrom) but not making a slight trade in season was the downfall. Also Jack/Nico getting hurt derailed the season off the ice in terms of GMing because it gave management leeway with the roster + Ruff.

 

[longislanddevil]

Not that I believe there’s too much credence in what this hack “reports.”

HockeyBuzz.com - Eklund - Updated Noon: Markstrom + Hanifin> NJ (e4) Chart Updated, BUZZCAST @3

www.hockeybuzz.com

 

[Homedresser]

Not sure if anyone saw this quick tidbit from Jeff Marek’s blog post today:

• Is the New Jersey Devils' bigger issue goaltending or a lack of blueliners who can defend? Some around the league believe the Devils' goalies are getting an unfair ride when the real issue exists in front of them.

Food for thought. I mean I don’t disagree but I think the goaltending certainly cannot be overlooked at all because it’s still probably the crux of the issues. But I would say also comes back to coaching and lack of any true structure to fall back on.

both are an ssue. Goaltending is terrible but gets exposed even more by some of the worst defensive play in the league. Forward's getting behind the defense, back door tap ins, zone exit turnovers (might lead the league), lack of basic hash mark coverage, consistently out of position. There is not one thing defensively this group is good. Luke's got a bright future ahead of him BUT like i mentioned before, he needs to take huge strides to improve his defensive side. His lack of defensive zone awareness is more than concerning. He's young but he should never be out of position as much as he is. And with the amount of ice time he gets it really puts pressure on his teammates.

 

[devilsblood]

Not that interesting of a stat unless you just want to make weird little arguments. It’s pretty easy to see an unsustainably low number of pucks are going in with him out there. Maybe it’s him and in fact Kevin Bahl and Brendan Smith are driving offense better. A believable story.

Lowest offensive production rate is pretty interesting given he is supposed to be an offensive first defenseman who get's all sorts of offensive opportunities. It's not like he's middle of the pack, he's 10th out of 10. Is part of that statistical anomaly? Sure, but I do think it indicates to some extent that he's not playing at a high level.

His individual PP numbers aren't good either. Especially after those first 10 games, amongst the worst in the league over the last 50.

 

[Homedresser]

Meh, the issue there was not having either on a short leash. It was fine to go into the year with both of them since Winnipeg's price was high on Helly (good reason, I don't fault them, I understand them doing it more so than CGY with Markstrom) but not making a slight trade in season was the downfall. Also Jack/Nico getting hurt derailed the season off the ice in terms of GMing because it gave management leeway with the roster + Ruff.

team was never going to seriously compete once they broke camp with those 2 in net. Can't put them on a leash if you on't have a backup. The easy part with roster is done. Now comes the hard part. Getting the right pieces at the right time. That's what wins in the nhl. And so far Fitz has not shown he can do that. Roster composition is on him and he failed miserably this year.

 

[devilsblood]

The problem with xG is that it doesn’t do a good job of doing what it portends to do. You have people here who cite it almost exclusively to judge performance. It’s trash, and I don’t take it anymore seriously than someone who tries to tell me Dylan Demelo is the third best defender in the league based on plus/minus.

Ya, I think part of the problem is a naming issue. It combines a couple stats together, which is cool, makes for an easy short hand, but it's certainly not giving us some firm metric which is "expected" goals.

Deserve to win a meter is a more drastic, and comical, example of this naming problem.

Another problem as you mention is it doesn't factor in enough pre shot, cross ice passing. Nor shooter ability, or maybe most importantly, position of defensemen at time of the shot taken.

 

[forceten]

Remember all the shitting on Elkund and his (e4) nonsense? Good times

 

[Forge]

Not sure if anyone saw this quick tidbit from Jeff Marek’s blog post today:

• Is the New Jersey Devils' bigger issue goaltending or a lack of blueliners who can defend? Some around the league believe the Devils' goalies are getting an unfair ride when the real issue exists in front of them.

Food for thought. I mean I don’t disagree but I think the goaltending certainly cannot be overlooked at all because it’s still probably the crux of the issues. But I would say also comes back to coaching and lack of any true structure to fall back on.

At minimum its a little from column A, a little from Column B. Definitely not all on the goaltending...though they haven't been good either. The defense has struggled at times, and also I don't know if it's really accounted for in "defense", but we have some really rough turnovers.

 

[Guttersniped]

At minimum its a little from column A, a little from Column B. Definitely not all on the goaltending...though they haven't been good either. The defense has struggled at times, and also I don't know if it's really accounted for in "defense", but we have some really rough turnovers.

With Vanecek out the goaltending is definitely a problem now because “play Daws every game” isn’t actually a workable plan for success.

I would also argue it’s not fair to Daws or good for his development.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Remember all the shitting on Elkund and his (e4) nonsense? Good times

 

[bossram]

I agree with most of this but re: the last paragraph he signed Bernier and Crawford to two year deals and they played like a combined ten games for us, it was never really Fitz’s plan to throw kids to the wolves.

The last two seasons, Crawford and Bernier were never going to be in the plans anyway. Fitz knew this. Didn't address it.

Markström's age is a problem, but he has one poor and one mediocre season, otherwise he has been consistently good.

I would say having two mediocre-to-bad seasons out of four seasons, when you're a mid-30s goalie, is not a particularly great sign.

 

[NJDevs26]

The last two seasons, Crawford and Bernier were never going to be in the plans anyway. Fitz knew this. Didn't address it.


I would say having two mediocre-to-bad seasons out of four seasons, when you're a mid-30s goalie, is not a particularly great sign.

The last two seasons Vitek was supposed to be the vet that kept the kids from being run into the ground.

 

[NJDfan86]

Ya, I think part of the problem is a naming issue. It combines a couple stats together, which is cool, makes for an easy short hand, but it's certainly not giving us some firm metric which is "expected" goals.

Deserve to win a meter is a more drastic, and comical, example of this naming problem.

Another problem as you mention is it doesn't factor in enough pre shot, cross ice passing. Nor shooter ability, or maybe most importantly, position of defensemen at time of the shot taken.

Public xG models generally do not (I believe MP does add basic preshot events) but private models (like SportLogiq cited on our broadcasts do.

The bigger problem with these stats are that fans are riddled with confirmation bias and spend more time arguing against them then trying to understand them.

 

[devilsblood]

Public xG models generally do not (I believe MP does add basic preshot events) but private models (like SportLogiq cited on our broadcasts do.

Sal definitely brings some good stats to the table at times.

And I'll point to those stats arguing against some of the public stats.

The bigger problem with these stats are that fans are riddled with confirmation bias and spend more time arguing against them then trying to understand them.

Meh, bigger problem on this board imo is the heavy handed use of xGF%.

Nevermind that some of those same posters will then ignore it in calling for Ruff's ouster.