I was going to take the week off from NHL hockey but then Horvat was traded and the amount of negativity from Devils fans on social media and the blogosphere really concerned me.
Look, I understand that many NJ fans are frustrated after a tough decade, to say the least. But the prevailing negativity among Devils fans to current management is very concerning to me. It wasn't so many months ago that Tom Fitzgerald enjoyed an absolutely outstanding off-season -- addressing three major needs with Marino, Vanecek and Palat while giving up absolutely nothing of value -- and Devils fans were calling for his head. The fact that Fitzgerald wasn't willing to mortgage the team's long-term future for a big name who didn't fill a major organizational need was a strength of the Devils off-season, not a weakness.
It's now just January and the Devils have the third best record in the entire NHL, a top-three prospect pool in the entire NHL, the brightest young star in the NHL in Jack Hughes -- who is barely legal to drink and a legit MVP candidate already, and one of the youngest and most exciting teams in the NHL.
And yet, many fans are beside themselves because the Islanders got Bo Horvat?
Here are some salient points which should make us all cool down a bit around the all-star break.
1) With all due respect to Lou Lamoriello -- who it baffles me how he garners so much vitriol among groupthink fans -- he's making the right move at the right time for the right team. Look -- he gave up the Islanders runaway top prospect in Aatu Raty and yet another first-round pick in the best draft class in nearly a decade, plus a solid and versatile winger in Beauvillier -- all to get Bo Horvat. But the Isles are an old team without much of a prospect pool and maybe a year or two left in their chances for a playoff run. Lamoriello is also the oldest GM in the NHL and wants to win now. He just improved his team's chances to win this year, and if he can re-sign Horvat the deal is a win for the Islanders. Did he sell out the team's long-term future? Sure, but it's not as if the logic needs further explanation.
2) What Lamoriello did -- unintentionally -- for the Devils, was keep Bo Horvat out of Carolina. I can't tell you how much I've seen written by Devils fans about the distance between the Devils and Rangers (currently 6 points) in the battle for 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division. I don't get the obsession with this, because I'm more concerned with the even smaller gap (4 points) between the Devils and 1st-place Carolina Hurricanes. Tom Fitzgerald is a very good GM, and as such I think he's more concerned with what it takes to be the best team in the NHL than what it takes to be "better than the higher profile team across the river".
Carolina is a terrific, young team with one glaring weakness -- they aren't going far in the playoffs with Sebastian Aho as their only top 6 center. Because you can look at every roster on every cup winner for the past decade and they are all extremely talented with two top centers.
What the Bo Horvat trade does not do is drive the price up on an interior, scoring winger like Timo Meier. What the Bo Horvat trade does do is astronomically jack up the price on the one remaining top center who could be had in the current trade market, which is Ryan O'Reilly. Top 6 centers and top-pairing defenders always cost more than wingers at the deadline. Always. And I think we can guarantee now that the ability of Carolina to get O'Reilly -- both now with his price higher and the competition fiercer (Boston, Rangers, Minnesota, Colorado, Vegas, Calgary all likely in the chase) -- is severely hampered. Because you're not winning a Stanley Cup with Jesperi Kotkaniemi as your 2C, you're just not.
3) As they stand right now, the Devils could conceivably make a deep playoff run. But there is no doubt a player like Timo Meier would make them a lot better. The Devils are an elite team at scoring off the rush, but they are still below average when it comes to Meier's bread and butter, which is scoring greasy goals off rebounds, deflections, net-front havoc and power plays down low. Meier is also a great shooter, which the Devils could use.
However, if the cost of acquiring Meier is prohibitive, Tom Fitzgerald has to think about the long-term future of the team over the benefits of the right now. This is to say that Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec and Dawson Mercer are not on the table, nor should they be. These incredible young talents should all be homegrown, core pieces for the next decade. The Devils still have more than enough -- because Fitzgerald was wise enough not to make a panic trade for a Fiala or DeBrincat -- to outbid any team which does not make a drunken sailor offer to San Jose. The Sharks will certainly have great interest in Alexander Holtz, a good friend and former linemate of their top prospect William Eklund.
The Sharks are desperate for prospects at LD -- and the Devils have the strongest group of LD prospects not only in the NHL right now, but maybe in the past decade for any team. San Jose's top LD prospect is currently Artemi Kniazev, who would have no chance of cracking the current Devils top 7, which I'd rank as Hughes/Mukhamadullin/Okhotiuk/Bahl/Vilen/Orlov/Misyul. As much as (certain) Devils fans bitch about Okhotiuk/Bahl as they are getting their feet wet in the NHL and making rookie mistakes as rookies, either one immediately steps into the Sharks line-up and has every chance to be a long term piece of that club going forward. Mukhamadullin would immediately become that team's unchallenged #2 overall prospect behind only Eklund.
As Devils fans, we naturally obsess over our own team, but the fact remains NJ probably fits San Jose trade-wise better than any other team.
4) The New Jersey Devils are in a tremendously bright position to be an NHL contender both now and going forward for the next decade. The last thing Tom Fitzgerald should be doing is panicking. The last thing Devils fans should be doing is panicking. Fitzgerald is certainly going to try to improve the team at the trade deadline, and Timo Meier is obviously a target. But it's doubtful Bo Horvat every truly was -- the Devils have ridiculous wealth at 1/2C with Hughes/Hischier going forward. I'm guessing Fitzgerald was just tracking the market on Horvat, and probably secretly hoping Carolina didn't land him.
As for me, I'm just going to enjoy the all-star break and take a break from the NHL to watch some prospects and 2023 draft-eligibles. And I think we should all be happy with the position the Devils are in right now. It's been a fun year, and it's a harbinger of good times to come in the future.
