Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[HugeInTheShire]

Devils missed on DeBrincat
Devils missed on Gaudreau
Devils missed on Tkachuk

Devils are comfortably in a playoff spot with missing on these guys, why exactly should they move Mercer/Nemec level player for Meier?

If NJ can add him without giving up Mercer, Nemec or Hughes go for it but if that's the ask, we've been fine without DeBrincat, Gaudreau and Tkachuk and we'll be fine without Meier

 

[glenwo2]

Not for nothing but the next time Rybo makes an appearance, I'm going to just repost that vid of Bratt skating without saying anything.

Bratt himself provides the "skating" answer way better than I could.


I like Mercer. He's got skill and can skate well.

But to die on a hill that is believing he's anything CLOSE to what Jesper Bratt is as a player is a bit much.

....okay...it's a whole LOT of much, actually.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Why would someone write 5000 words about shit happening elsewhere, commenting on that stuff? Blogs are free and Twitter is free, those items being talked about there can be written about there. I comment sometimes on AATJ, I don't drag their arguments in here to talk about.

People constantly shoot down arguments on other boards and platforms that aren't happening here.....

Because his post was long it bothers you?

 

[Devils090]

Mercer, Luke and Nemec are untouchable right now for me

Holtz, Muk, Casey, Foote etc are all fair game.

 

[Triumph]

People constantly shoot down arguments on other boards and platforms that aren't happening here.....

Because his post was long it bothers you?

Those all bother me, yes. You can search my name and Twitter if you want to go through my post history and find multiple instances of me complaining about it on here, no matter who does it. I hate meta-discussion and yet I'm engaging in it.

A long post doesn't bother me, my scrolling finger is just fine. I was merely adding my opinion to ZBC's.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Those all bother me, yes. You can search my name and Twitter if you want to go through my post history and find multiple instances of me complaining about it on here. I hate meta-discussion and yet I'm engaging in it.

Fair enough, I have no problem with consistency.

 

[My3Sons]

I was going to take the week off from NHL hockey but then Horvat was traded and the amount of negativity from Devils fans on social media and the blogosphere really concerned me.

Look, I understand that many NJ fans are frustrated after a tough decade, to say the least. But the prevailing negativity among Devils fans to current management is very concerning to me. It wasn't so many months ago that Tom Fitzgerald enjoyed an absolutely outstanding off-season -- addressing three major needs with Marino, Vanecek and Palat while giving up absolutely nothing of value -- and Devils fans were calling for his head. The fact that Fitzgerald wasn't willing to mortgage the team's long-term future for a big name who didn't fill a major organizational need was a strength of the Devils off-season, not a weakness.

It's now just January and the Devils have the third best record in the entire NHL, a top-three prospect pool in the entire NHL, the brightest young star in the NHL in Jack Hughes -- who is barely legal to drink and a legit MVP candidate already, and one of the youngest and most exciting teams in the NHL.

And yet, many fans are beside themselves because the Islanders got Bo Horvat?

Here are some salient points which should make us all cool down a bit around the all-star break.

1) With all due respect to Lou Lamoriello -- who it baffles me how he garners so much vitriol among groupthink fans -- he's making the right move at the right time for the right team. Look -- he gave up the Islanders runaway top prospect in Aatu Raty and yet another first-round pick in the best draft class in nearly a decade, plus a solid and versatile winger in Beauvillier -- all to get Bo Horvat. But the Isles are an old team without much of a prospect pool and maybe a year or two left in their chances for a playoff run. Lamoriello is also the oldest GM in the NHL and wants to win now. He just improved his team's chances to win this year, and if he can re-sign Horvat the deal is a win for the Islanders. Did he sell out the team's long-term future? Sure, but it's not as if the logic needs further explanation.


2) What Lamoriello did -- unintentionally -- for the Devils, was keep Bo Horvat out of Carolina. I can't tell you how much I've seen written by Devils fans about the distance between the Devils and Rangers (currently 6 points) in the battle for 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division. I don't get the obsession with this, because I'm more concerned with the even smaller gap (4 points) between the Devils and 1st-place Carolina Hurricanes. Tom Fitzgerald is a very good GM, and as such I think he's more concerned with what it takes to be the best team in the NHL than what it takes to be "better than the higher profile team across the river".

Carolina is a terrific, young team with one glaring weakness -- they aren't going far in the playoffs with Sebastian Aho as their only top 6 center. Because you can look at every roster on every cup winner for the past decade and they are all extremely talented with two top centers.

What the Bo Horvat trade does not do is drive the price up on an interior, scoring winger like Timo Meier. What the Bo Horvat trade does do is astronomically jack up the price on the one remaining top center who could be had in the current trade market, which is Ryan O'Reilly. Top 6 centers and top-pairing defenders always cost more than wingers at the deadline. Always. And I think we can guarantee now that the ability of Carolina to get O'Reilly -- both now with his price higher and the competition fiercer (Boston, Rangers, Minnesota, Colorado, Vegas, Calgary all likely in the chase) -- is severely hampered. Because you're not winning a Stanley Cup with Jesperi Kotkaniemi as your 2C, you're just not.


3) As they stand right now, the Devils could conceivably make a deep playoff run. But there is no doubt a player like Timo Meier would make them a lot better. The Devils are an elite team at scoring off the rush, but they are still below average when it comes to Meier's bread and butter, which is scoring greasy goals off rebounds, deflections, net-front havoc and power plays down low. Meier is also a great shooter, which the Devils could use.

However, if the cost of acquiring Meier is prohibitive, Tom Fitzgerald has to think about the long-term future of the team over the benefits of the right now. This is to say that Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec and Dawson Mercer are not on the table, nor should they be. These incredible young talents should all be homegrown, core pieces for the next decade. The Devils still have more than enough -- because Fitzgerald was wise enough not to make a panic trade for a Fiala or DeBrincat -- to outbid any team which does not make a drunken sailor offer to San Jose. The Sharks will certainly have great interest in Alexander Holtz, a good friend and former linemate of their top prospect William Eklund.

The Sharks are desperate for prospects at LD -- and the Devils have the strongest group of LD prospects not only in the NHL right now, but maybe in the past decade for any team. San Jose's top LD prospect is currently Artemi Kniazev, who would have no chance of cracking the current Devils top 7, which I'd rank as Hughes/Mukhamadullin/Okhotiuk/Bahl/Vilen/Orlov/Misyul. As much as (certain) Devils fans bitch about Okhotiuk/Bahl as they are getting their feet wet in the NHL and making rookie mistakes as rookies, either one immediately steps into the Sharks line-up and has every chance to be a long term piece of that club going forward. Mukhamadullin would immediately become that team's unchallenged #2 overall prospect behind only Eklund.

As Devils fans, we naturally obsess over our own team, but the fact remains NJ probably fits San Jose trade-wise better than any other team.


4) The New Jersey Devils are in a tremendously bright position to be an NHL contender both now and going forward for the next decade. The last thing Tom Fitzgerald should be doing is panicking. The last thing Devils fans should be doing is panicking. Fitzgerald is certainly going to try to improve the team at the trade deadline, and Timo Meier is obviously a target. But it's doubtful Bo Horvat every truly was -- the Devils have ridiculous wealth at 1/2C with Hughes/Hischier going forward. I'm guessing Fitzgerald was just tracking the market on Horvat, and probably secretly hoping Carolina didn't land him.

As for me, I'm just going to enjoy the all-star break and take a break from the NHL to watch some prospects and 2023 draft-eligibles. And I think we should all be happy with the position the Devils are in right now. It's been a fun year, and it's a harbinger of good times to come in the future.

As you are no doubt aware the discussion here has been laser focused on Meier. I don't think any of the hf NJ assemblage have given much thought to a rental trade. The consensus seems to be it's too early in the competitive cycle for this core to give up anything of significance for one playoff run. Meier is perceived to be different since the thought is that he'd sign an extension as part of a trade and be willing to in order to cast his lot in with his countrymen. I'm probably not telling you anything you don't already know but with you engrossed in your bar and writing you might not have had time to read all the stellar posts we have put up here. Especially my posts. Some of them are absolutely genius level.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

 

[Guttersniped]

I was going to take the week off from NHL hockey but then Horvat was traded and the amount of negativity from Devils fans on social media and the blogosphere really concerned me.

Look, I understand that many NJ fans are frustrated after a tough decade, to say the least. But the prevailing negativity among Devils fans to current management is very concerning to me. It wasn't so many months ago that Tom Fitzgerald enjoyed an absolutely outstanding off-season -- addressing three major needs with Marino, Vanecek and Palat while giving up absolutely nothing of value -- and Devils fans were calling for his head. The fact that Fitzgerald wasn't willing to mortgage the team's long-term future for a big name who didn't fill a major organizational need was a strength of the Devils off-season, not a weakness.

It's now just January and the Devils have the third best record in the entire NHL, a top-three prospect pool in the entire NHL, the brightest young star in the NHL in Jack Hughes -- who is barely legal to drink and a legit MVP candidate already, and one of the youngest and most exciting teams in the NHL.

And yet, many fans are beside themselves because the Islanders got Bo Horvat?

Here are some salient points which should make us all cool down a bit around the all-star break.

1) With all due respect to Lou Lamoriello -- who it baffles me how he garners so much vitriol among groupthink fans -- he's making the right move at the right time for the right team. Look -- he gave up the Islanders runaway top prospect in Aatu Raty and yet another first-round pick in the best draft class in nearly a decade, plus a solid and versatile winger in Beauvillier -- all to get Bo Horvat. But the Isles are an old team without much of a prospect pool and maybe a year or two left in their chances for a playoff run. Lamoriello is also the oldest GM in the NHL and wants to win now. He just improved his team's chances to win this year, and if he can re-sign Horvat the deal is a win for the Islanders. Did he sell out the team's long-term future? Sure, but it's not as if the logic needs further explanation.


2) What Lamoriello did -- unintentionally -- for the Devils, was keep Bo Horvat out of Carolina. I can't tell you how much I've seen written by Devils fans about the distance between the Devils and Rangers (currently 6 points) in the battle for 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division. I don't get the obsession with this, because I'm more concerned with the even smaller gap (4 points) between the Devils and 1st-place Carolina Hurricanes. Tom Fitzgerald is a very good GM, and as such I think he's more concerned with what it takes to be the best team in the NHL than what it takes to be "better than the higher profile team across the river".

Carolina is a terrific, young team with one glaring weakness -- they aren't going far in the playoffs with Sebastian Aho as their only top 6 center. Because you can look at every roster on every cup winner for the past decade and they are all extremely talented with two top centers.

What the Bo Horvat trade does not do is drive the price up on an interior, scoring winger like Timo Meier. What the Bo Horvat trade does do is astronomically jack up the price on the one remaining top center who could be had in the current trade market, which is Ryan O'Reilly. Top 6 centers and top-pairing defenders always cost more than wingers at the deadline. Always. And I think we can guarantee now that the ability of Carolina to get O'Reilly -- both now with his price higher and the competition fiercer (Boston, Rangers, Minnesota, Colorado, Vegas, Calgary all likely in the chase) -- is severely hampered. Because you're not winning a Stanley Cup with Jesperi Kotkaniemi as your 2C, you're just not.


3) As they stand right now, the Devils could conceivably make a deep playoff run. But there is no doubt a player like Timo Meier would make them a lot better. The Devils are an elite team at scoring off the rush, but they are still below average when it comes to Meier's bread and butter, which is scoring greasy goals off rebounds, deflections, net-front havoc and power plays down low. Meier is also a great shooter, which the Devils could use.

However, if the cost of acquiring Meier is prohibitive, Tom Fitzgerald has to think about the long-term future of the team over the benefits of the right now. This is to say that Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec and Dawson Mercer are not on the table, nor should they be. These incredible young talents should all be homegrown, core pieces for the next decade. The Devils still have more than enough -- because Fitzgerald was wise enough not to make a panic trade for a Fiala or DeBrincat -- to outbid any team which does not make a drunken sailor offer to San Jose. The Sharks will certainly have great interest in Alexander Holtz, a good friend and former linemate of their top prospect William Eklund.

The Sharks are desperate for prospects at LD -- and the Devils have the strongest group of LD prospects not only in the NHL right now, but maybe in the past decade for any team. San Jose's top LD prospect is currently Artemi Kniazev, who would have no chance of cracking the current Devils top 7, which I'd rank as Hughes/Mukhamadullin/Okhotiuk/Bahl/Vilen/Orlov/Misyul. As much as (certain) Devils fans bitch about Okhotiuk/Bahl as they are getting their feet wet in the NHL and making rookie mistakes as rookies, either one immediately steps into the Sharks line-up and has every chance to be a long term piece of that club going forward. Mukhamadullin would immediately become that team's unchallenged #2 overall prospect behind only Eklund.

As Devils fans, we naturally obsess over our own team, but the fact remains NJ probably fits San Jose trade-wise better than any other team.


4) The New Jersey Devils are in a tremendously bright position to be an NHL contender both now and going forward for the next decade. The last thing Tom Fitzgerald should be doing is panicking. The last thing Devils fans should be doing is panicking. Fitzgerald is certainly going to try to improve the team at the trade deadline, and Timo Meier is obviously a target. But it's doubtful Bo Horvat every truly was -- the Devils have ridiculous wealth at 1/2C with Hughes/Hischier going forward. I'm guessing Fitzgerald was just tracking the market on Horvat, and probably secretly hoping Carolina didn't land him.

As for me, I'm just going to enjoy the all-star break and take a break from the NHL to watch some prospects and 2023 draft-eligibles. And I think we should all be happy with the position the Devils are in right now. It's been a fun year, and it's a harbinger of good times to come in the future.

“And yet, many fans are beside themselves because the Islanders got Bo Horvat?”

Wait, they are? Devils fans?

This isn’t sarcasm btw and it’s also why I ignore “Devils Twitter” (D-U-M-B lol).

Did people want Horvat? Uh, ok. Do these same people realize he’s a rental under no obligation to sign with the Islanders?

It’s hilarious though if those are the takes you’re reading.

Here the takes are on a spectrum from “ok trade I guess” to “Lou stripping a declining team of future assets again”. (My take is I’m glad I’m not an NYI fan and on Horvat Contract Watch.)

(I don’t think we catch Carolina though.)

 

[Rybo]

Definitely less because I’m not moving Yegor for Foote and Muk. I still feel like it’d end up being Yegor instead though. We’d probably end up taking randoms to make the contracts work

Would be awesome to keep Sharangovich for depth! But how much would he want on a contract? Would he want Wood's deal?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

because we don't need assets for Meier. We have plenty to get him without those "extra" assets.

We need Severson's play.

 

[Hisch13r]

Would be awesome to keep Sharangovich for depth! But how much would he want on a contract? Would he want Wood's deal?

I can’t really see him getting more than like 3ish here

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

He’s playing 24:23 per game over our last 20 games. Not subtracting an important player from the roster this year — it’s winning time.

 

[Triumph]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

The Devils already have plenty of futures and their backend depth is awful, yes they're great 1-5 but Brendan Smith is looking worse all the time and neither Bahl or Okhotiuk has distinguished themselves yet. I don't see how losing Severson helps them at all. Yeah, if they trade for Meier, the players they lose are probably going to be good, but that's just life having a good team, it rarely makes sense to keep everyone.

 

[NJDevs26]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

You fix one hole and create another…look at how bad the back pairing guys have been without Marino. You’re either giving them more playing time by trading Severson or hoping an 18-year old Nemec is the answer. Luke isn’t going to be an option till the playoffs but you can make room for him regardless if you need to (ie in Brendan Smith’s spot)

 

[forceten]

He’s playing 24:23 per game over our last 20 games. Not subtracting an important player from the roster this year — it’s winning time.

Plus, I think he could still get something like a 3rd or 4th for early access to him between EOY and 7/1/2023.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

because we don't need assets for Meier. We have plenty.

We need Severson's play.

Sigh.

It's one bad contract we get out of early. Or one rental that pushes us over the top. Or just another solid bottom 6 guy. Giving up Severson means we might keep Holtz, for starters.

Just because we don't "need" the assets for Meier, that doesn't mean it isn't a smart thing to for the next few years, again, considering Severson is most likely gone in July.

Do you want Severson as a rental? Because as of now, history aside, that's about where his contract stands.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Imagine a world where Damon gets moved, Marino isn’t quite back 100%, and Dougie gets dinged up. No thank you.

 

[My3Sons]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

Your avatar says "trade everyone" so I'll take your contribution with a bit of a grain of salt. As others have noted, the return for Severson probably wouldn't be that great and right now Sevs is playing about 25 minutes per night with Marino out. Even after Marino returns it's hard to see Sevs as completely expendable when the next man up is either an unimpressive to date Bahl or a D+1 teenager who is just finding his way in the AHL. Your idea is not terrible. If they could get a first and a prospect for Sevs and reroute those to SJ with another lesser piece or two and add an extended Meier that's a good use of assets and maybe even salable in the locker room. If one report from earlier is correct NJ has allegedly put Sevs name out to other teams but whatever the response has been must be underwhelming if he is still a Devil.

Edit: I do think the problem with your idea is the team almost certainly has to add another veteran righty to take Sevs place and that dilutes any return for Sevs. It's tricky to pull your idea off.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Sigh.

It's one bad contract we get out of early. Or one rental that pushes us over the top. Or just another solid bottom 6 guy. Giving up Severson means we might keep Holtz, for starters.

Just because we don't "need" the assets for Meier, that doesn't mean it isn't a smart thing to for the next few years, again, considering Severson is most likely gone in July.

Do you want Severson as a rental? Because as of now, history aside, that's about where his contract stands.

Severson's contract is not bad, and hes UFA in 5 months anyways. I am not really sure what you're talking about?

if we get Meier, we don't need Holtz anymore tbh

I don't care if Severson walks for free this summer. Its time to win, not recoup assets. That time has passed.

 

[Hisch13r]

Sigh.

It's one bad contract we get out of early. Or one rental that pushes us over the top. Or just another solid bottom 6 guy.

Just because we don't "need" the assets for Meier, that doesn't mean it isn't a smart thing to for the next few years, again, considering Severson is most likely gone in July.

Do you want Severson as a rental? Because as of now, history aside, that's about where his contract stands.

I don’t even know what you’re saying. What bad contract? Are you seriously saying a bottom 6 add is more valuable than keeping Sevo? Huh??

Also yes I do want Sevo as a rental because this rental comes for free and is a really good player.

 

[Devils090]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

Because with him we have the best RD depth in the league and one of the best overall units. He’s frustrating as hell sometimes but if you have him on your 3rd pairing you’re pretty stacked. I’d much rather he be here for the playoffs than having to use Smith there. Sucks to just let him walk but Fitz isn’t going to weaken the blue line like that.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

I don’t even know what you’re saying. What bad contract? Are you seriously saying a bottom 6 add is more valuable than keeping Sevo? Huh??

Also yes I do want Sevo as a rental because this rental comes for free and is a really good player.

Palat has the potential to be a bad contract in another year or two. Even this year I'm not sure he's been worth $6.5M.

Or even Meier. Say we signed him at $9M for 8 years and he's underwhelming. You need to maintain assets for the sake of cap dumps too.

I don’t even know what you’re saying. What bad contract? Are you seriously saying a bottom 6 add is more valuable than keeping Sevo? Huh??

Also yes I do want Sevo as a rental because this rental comes for free and is a really good player.

Because you're valuing Sevo for one (likely) premature run versus the assets that would be utilized for the next 5 runs.

I value that latter much more. That's all it comes down to.

 

[Devilsgrl35]

There's going to be a mystery team that swoops in last minute. It always seems like that happens.

 

[hidek91]

I'm still wondering YTF people want to keep Severson when he can be flipped to a contender (where he may end up in July anyway) and the return assets can be used for a guy like Meier.

I could understand some concerns about what would the players think, except that he's UFA that's being pushed out by promising young talent. This isn't someone we still have signed for another 3-4 years.

I don't think people get just how big of a move it would be to keep some of our futures from a move this like this.

As much as I'm cautious about calling us 'a contender' already, we absolutely shouldn't be selling. If we were in the place in the standings where e. g. Isles currently are, I'd agree with you but we're way too good to create a hole at #3 RD.