Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Nubmer6]

Mukhamadullin as well. If he fills out his frame and can pick up his pace he has a chance to be the other lefty.

Ya, but I didn't think of Mukhamadulin as a shutdown defender. I view him more as a 2-way guy.

 

[My3Sons]

Ya, but I didn't think of Mukhamadulin as a shutdown defender. I view him more as a 2-way guy.

Siegenthaler is the shutdown guy. If Mukhamadullin achieves his potential the other guys are not going to be here except as an injury replacement.

 

[Triumph]

Or you’re on the penalty kill, or you’re starting in the defensive zone off a face off or any of the other four guys screwed up during a shift. This idea that you only block shots or hit guys because you’re a cement footed grenade handler is wildly simplistic and doesn’t account for the other nine guys on the ice or situational hockey. It also glosses over that blocking shots is generally better than the alternative which is letting shots get through.

It's not, though. Most shots that are blocked are low-percentage shots that the goalie would get anyway, whereas plenty of shots that are blocked end up bouncing to open players or otherwise extending the play.

Nobody is saying you only block shots if you're a grenade handler, obviously lots of defensemen and forwards block shots. If your main attribute is shot blocking, then yes, that guy is probably bad. Andy Greene always blocked lots of shots but up until his final years here he was quite competent at the rest of the game.

 

[Bankers Box]

I enjoy NFL as well just find it funny that is called Football. Anyway in Ireland their governing body is called Football association as is in Japan and Australia for example. In USA and Canada it's called Soccer federation.

In Australia they call themselves the damn “socceroos” lol. They definitely call it soccer.

 

[Triumph]

I respectfully couldn't disagree much more with several of the philosophies -- though well thought out and conveyed -- expressed here.

There's a lot of detail in here to respond to, but I'll focus on Okhotyuk and the idea that a team with a defense focused on possession is somehow superior to a team with a physical defense which can block shots, win battles down low and clear creases with authority.

Personally, I felt one of the most under-noticed aspects of the Colorado Stanley Cup win was how their defense played even better once analytic darling Samuel Girard went down with injury and was replaced in the roster by analytic pariah Jack Johnson. The Avalanche had more than enough offense from the blueline with Makar, Byram and Toews -- all three of whom are very good defensively as well -- that I felt Girard's all-offense/poor defense was quite a detriment to the team overall, something which was glaring to me the previous year when they lost in the playoffs to Vegas. Jack Johnson shored up the blueline and made the Avs tougher to play, as it gave them four physical guys back there along with Erik Johnson, Manson and Byram. And I think we should also mention that Makar is terrific in his own end and one hell of a shot-blocker.

Johnson is awful and the Avs were good enough to compensate for how bad he is. But yes, you can come up with reasons for anything - Girard was not good against Vegas last season. I don't think him being injured was helpful to Colorado this year, because he was replaced with Johnson, who is terrible. As it stands, both guys had a roughly equivalent playoffs.

The fact is that hockey is not math; it is not quantifiable by any math metric other than which team scores the most goals to win the most games, and which players are doing most of the scoring. We've seen this with the Devils many times over the years. A big hit changes momentum. There is no metric for momentum, but I was watching the 1995 Stanley Cup Final which was literally the biggest upset of the decade in the NHL -- a series which was completely taken over due to Scott Stevens' legendary physicality. The hit on Kozlov changed the tenor of the series, a series in which the Red Wings had every talent advantage imaginable.

They didn't have an advantage in net, which is where that series was actually won - Mike Vernon was atrocious in that series. He gave up 14 goals on 96 shots, an excerable .854 SV%. It's nearly impossible to win when your goalie is giving up goals on one out of every 7 shots. Devils played great D, Vernon was horrible, that's how you get a sweep in a series like this.

For the past decade, the Devils have been literally rag-dolled by a very tough and physical division. At times, it's been sickening to watch. Brad Marchand nearly decapitates first Marcus Johansson then Ty Smith after the whistle and no Devil raises a hand to him. Do we think this is not indicative of the Devils losing ways over the past decade because we cannot quantify it analytically? A big hit changes not only the spirit and mood of the players on both sides of it, but also the way certain players approach the game.

You do realize that Brad Marchand's hit on Marcus Johansson came in a season where the Devils made the playoffs, right? Johansson took that elbow on January 26, the Devils lost that game, they were 24-15-8 at that point, and they went 19-14-1 after that. It did not alter their momentum at all. What are you trying to say by mentioning this play? All you're telling me is that you remember a cheap shot a Devils player took and you can spin up an invented narrative around that play.

There are skill forwards in the NHL who quite simply won't skate into a puck battle when it's against a defenseman who know will punish them physically. There are skill forwards who will avoid the crease against tougher defensemen, and the greasy areas where most NHL goals are scored.

This is not a "size" thing. Kris Letang is a tough physical defenseman at 5'10. But Ty Smith was not, and Will Butcher was not, and both of those defensemen seriously hurt the Devils in their own zone. Both were "new age" defensemen, in the vein of Shayne Gostisbehere or Tony deAngelo, two other players who hurt their teams more than they help them, especially come playoff time. But you can win with the Erik Johnsons and Josh Mansons and Luke Schenns because they free up the Cale Makars and Viktor Hedmans to play their games, they kill penalties, and they force the opposition scorers to always feel uncomfortable and be looking over their shoulders down low.

This is all a bunch of narrative that gets beaten again and again. Ty Smith isn't here anymore because he was a bad player. Will Butcher is also not very good, as it turns out, he sustained some injuries and that was it, he's on a two-way deal now. Luke Schenn played 11 minutes a game for the Lightning, you literally cannot have picked a worse example than a depth defender who barely impacts anything.

You need guys who can defend. But you sit here praising guys like Jack Johnson and Luke Schenn and it's just grasping at straws. These are fringe players who are not important.

It's not as simple as "if you have the puck, it's impossible for the other team to score". Because even the very best possession teams get about a 60-40 advantage there against the very worst possession teams. Every NHL team will possess the puck for significant time, no matter what, because that's just hockey. If the other team is dominating down low during their 40% and your team is on the perimeter during their 60% -- well, your team is still going to lose the game. We saw that with the Devils in multiple losses against the Blue Jackets this year -- the Devils dominating the possession game, the Blue Jackets dominating the down low game and coming away with the W.

Ridiculous on its face, nobody plays the game this way. The Devils can use more guys who are good at keeping plays alive in the offensive zone and I think they've gotten them. What I'm objecting to is that teams can continually get 'the good chances' and deny good chances to other teams in this way, this just isn't how hockey works.

Of course, there is a balance. You need scorers, and I'm not advocating a team of pugilists. I'm not a Mason Geertsen fan, and I'm not an old school dinosaur. I watch a ton of hockey at every level and skill is the most important quality for a winning team. However -- it's also the salary cap era and you can't afford 6 high-level skill defenders and 12 high-level skill forwards for your roster. Even if you could, you'd have to take into account the psychology that a high skill player isn't happy with 4th line or 3rd pairing minutes. And even if they were, this all-star team could still be beaten by a well-balanced team with different types of players playing different roles, because someone's got to block the shots and someone's got to clear the crease and someone's got to kill the penalties and someone's got to put their head down and forecheck.

I know I'm long-winded here, but back to Okhotyuk. He's a physical, high-energy defender with physicality and a guy who relishes his role as a punishing defender. His potential to me is quite high -- like a slightly less cerebral but more physical Ryan Graves, a perfect player to pair with a Simon Nemec down the line if Okhotyuk reaches his potential. Why? Because Okhotyuk's attention to detail on defense and reticence to take risks will free up Nemec to do more with the puck. Because knowing your partner is defensively reliable enables you to take more chances with stretch passing out of the zone. Because having an Okhotyuk to give you a breather on the PK gives you more rest and energy for where you excel on the power play.

Ryan Graves contributes a lot more to offense than Okhotiuk has to date. They're much, much different players - Graves likes to shoot the puck a lot, Okhotiuk does not get many shots. They're frankly, a terrible comparison for one another and I don't even know why anyone would think to compare them.

You need players like Okhotiuk, it's not clear you need Okhotiuk, I think he and Bahl will both get a chance this year and hopefully they both run with it, but I'm not really seeing it so far from either guy, I like Okhotiuk more, but chances are in 5 years neither guy is in the NHL.

The fact is that the best teams in hockey perennially have strong and physical defense cores beyond their star defensemen. As noted, Girard hurt Colorado in the 2021 playoffs and his injury was beneficial to their 2022 Stanley Cup run. Tampa's defense corps were physically huge and overall physical beyond Hedman and Sergachev with McDonagh, Cernak and Bogosian. The Rangers would certainly not have been in the Eastern Conference finals with DeAngelo on the blueline instead of K'Andre Miller -- and we all saw how DeAngelo was the biggest detriment to Carolina whatsoever as they were upset by the very same Rangers in the semi-finals. And please, don't argue Cale Makar as a "new age" defenseman -- if anything his closest NHL comparable is Bobby Orr. I can go on for awhile, but the point is easy for Devils fans, and finally (sorry) I'm going to get to it.

Bobby Orr, the most transformative defenseman the game has ever seen, who played when the league was comprised almost entirely of Canadians? Oh, okay, cool. I do like you extrapolating all this stuff from 7 games though, it's fun to watch. DeAngelo was awful in that series against the Rangers but it very easily could've gone the other way for Carolina. Tampa has a good defense corps, but that's the key - it is Actually Good, it results in good things, Cernak isn't a stiff, McDonagh is fine, there was enough puck skill to get by, we'll see how things go this year without McDonagh.

The New Jersey Devils have an extraordinary base for a future defense corps with Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. All three of these players have star-like offensive capability -- we're talking 70-point potential. So, we don't need to add an all-offense defender, plain and simple. We need Siegenthaler and Graves and hopefully guys like Okhotyuk and Mukhamadullin or whomever will develop into these types of players.

Balance is the key to a winning hockey club. Not Corsi, not Fenwick... balance. You get a high skill core of players (Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec on the blueline -- Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Mercer, Holtz, Gritsyuk up front) and you surround them with players who excel in other areas. Face-offs, shot-blocking, forechecking, penalty killing, defensive acuity -- you name it. There's a reason the trade deadline saw big trades for defensemen from losing teams like Manson, Lyubushkin and Chiarot but no one thought to make a deal for Shayne Gostisbehere, who was piling up points for the worst team in the Western Conference.

No one thought to make a deal for Shayne Gostisbehere because his contract has a year left on it. This is where I get mad at your posts, you continually do not take into account the real-world circumstances of the NHL and just fire off stuff like this without thinking for one second about it. Gostisbehere was traded at a loss by Philadelphia, he didn't all of the sudden become super-valuable, I still think he probably will be dealt at this deadline if he is healthy and productive, but I won't be shocked if he isn't because the league is capped out and most teams have a PP QB they like.

 

[NJDevs26]

It's not, though. Most shots that are blocked are low-percentage shots that the goalie would get anyway, whereas plenty of shots that are blocked end up bouncing to open players or otherwise extending the play.

Nobody is saying you only block shots if you're a grenade handler, obviously lots of defensemen and forwards block shots. If your main attribute is shot blocking, then yes, that guy is probably bad. Andy Greene always blocked lots of shots but up until his final years here he was quite competent at the rest of the game.

And how many low percentage shots went in this year? The same blocked shots that ‘could’ get bounced to open players can also easily lead to rebounds off and tips in front of the goalie if they don’t get blocked. But you can extrapolate anything off plays that never happen to fit a narrative. The situations where blocked shots help vastly outnumber the ones they don’t.

 

[Triumph]

And how many low percentage shots went in this year? The same blocked shots that ‘could’ get bounced to open players can also easier lead to rebounds off and tips in front of the goalie if they don’t get blocked. You can extrapolate anything off plays that never happen to fit a narrative.

How many high-percentage shots went in because a guy got out of position to attempt to block a low-percentage shot? The thing is, what we just don't see are teams who can block shots with a ton of skill, who really do block a much higher percentage of shots than the opposition. It makes me think shot-blocking as a skill is just not all that valuable.

 

[My3Sons]

Johnson is awful and the Avs were good enough to compensate for how bad he is. But yes, you can come up with reasons for anything - Girard was not good against Vegas last season. I don't think him being injured was helpful to Colorado this year, because he was replaced with Johnson, who is terrible. As it stands, both guys had a roughly equivalent playoffs.



They didn't have an advantage in net, which is where that series was actually won - Mike Vernon was atrocious in that series. He gave up 14 goals on 96 shots, an excerable .854 SV%. It's nearly impossible to win when your goalie is giving up goals on one out of every 7 shots. Devils played great D, Vernon was horrible, that's how you get a sweep in a series like this.



You do realize that Brad Marchand's hit on Marcus Johansson came in a season where the Devils made the playoffs, right? Johansson took that elbow on January 26, the Devils lost that game, they were 24-15-8 at that point, and they went 19-14-1 after that. It did not alter their momentum at all. What are you trying to say by mentioning this play? All you're telling me is that you remember a cheap shot a Devils player took and you can spin up an invented narrative around that play.



This is all a bunch of narrative that gets beaten again and again. Ty Smith isn't here anymore because he was a bad player. Will Butcher is also not very good, as it turns out, he sustained some injuries and that was it, he's on a two-way deal now. Luke Schenn played 11 minutes a game for the Lightning, you literally cannot have picked a worse example than a depth defender who barely impacts anything.

You need guys who can defend. But you sit here praising guys like Jack Johnson and Luke Schenn and it's just grasping at straws. These are fringe players who are not important.



Ridiculous on its face, nobody plays the game this way. The Devils can use more guys who are good at keeping plays alive in the offensive zone and I think they've gotten them. What I'm objecting to is that teams can continually get 'the good chances' and deny good chances to other teams in this way, this just isn't how hockey works.



Ryan Graves contributes a lot more to offense than Okhotiuk has to date. They're much, much different players - Graves likes to shoot the puck a lot, Okhotiuk does not get many shots. They're frankly, a terrible comparison for one another and I don't even know why anyone would think to compare them.

You need players like Okhotiuk, it's not clear you need Okhotiuk, I think he and Bahl will both get a chance this year and hopefully they both run with it, but I'm not really seeing it so far from either guy, I like Okhotiuk more, but chances are in 5 years neither guy is in the NHL.



Bobby Orr, the most transformative defenseman the game has ever seen, who played when the league was comprised almost entirely of Canadians? Oh, okay, cool. I do like you extrapolating all this stuff from 7 games though, it's fun to watch. DeAngelo was awful in that series against the Rangers but it very easily could've gone the other way for Carolina. Tampa has a good defense corps, but that's the key - it is Actually Good, it results in good things, Cernak isn't a stiff, McDonagh is fine, there was enough puck skill to get by, we'll see how things go this year without McDonagh.



No one thought to make a deal for Shayne Gostisbehere because his contract has a year left on it. This is where I get mad at your posts, you continually do not take into account the real-world circumstances of the NHL and just fire off stuff like this without thinking for one second about it. Gostisbehere was traded at a loss by Philadelphia, he didn't all of the sudden become super-valuable, I still think he probably will be dealt at this deadline if he is healthy and productive, but I won't be shocked if he isn't because the league is capped out and most teams have a PP QB they like.

Like most things I think there are multiple ways to skin the cat. In a perfect universe you’d have six two way defenders that could do it all. I think in reality there has to be balance because there aren’t enough good players. I doubt a defense of six Girard would work not woukd one of six Daneyko. Would one of six Seversons work? That last one maybe. We tend to get focused on the alternative between physical in zone defense and the other elements. I don’t think it’s controversial to say a team wants all of them in each player. I think the problems arise when a guy is too biased in one direction.

 

[Nubmer6]

Siegenthaler is the shutdown guy. If Mukhamadullin achieves his potential the other guys are not going to be here except as an injury replacement.

That wasn't really point. My point was that we obtained 3 potential shutdown guys around the same time and I'd be happy if at least one became a decent NHLer.

 

[MartyOwns]

Like most things I think there are multiple ways to skin the cat. In a perfect universe you’d have six two way defenders that could do it all. I think in reality there has to be balance because there aren’t enough good players. I doubt a defense of six Girard would work not woukd one of six Daneyko. Would one of six Seversons work? That last one maybe. We tend to get focused on the alternative between physical in zone defense and the other elements. I don’t think it’s controversial to say a team wants all of them in each player. I think the problems arise when a guy is too biased in one direction.

six seversons would be hilarious

 

[My3Sons]

six seversons would be hilarious

It would be. Some nights the league’s best defense and some nights eight goals against with each an own goal in ridiculous fashion.

 

[Triumph]

Like most things I think there are multiple ways to skin the cat. In a perfect universe you’d have six two way defenders that could do it all. I think in reality there has to be balance because there aren’t enough good players. I doubt a defense of six Girard would work not woukd one of six Daneyko. Would one of six Seversons work? That last one maybe. We tend to get focused on the alternative between physical in zone defense and the other elements. I don’t think it’s controversial to say a team wants all of them in each player. I think the problems arise when a guy is too biased in one direction.

This is all fair but the thing is that the NHL is just moving away from guys like Okhotiuk who hit everything in sight, it's just so hard to be good when you do that. He registered 16 hits in 75 minutes of ice time, if he played 1000 minutes this would give him 213 hits. Santini in 2018 would've had 156 hits in 1000 minutes. Volchenkov would've had around 150 hits in his final season here in 1000 minutes.

What we don't know is if the Devils have changed scorers since then, and obviously Okhotiuk only played a few games, but this pace is the hittingest a Devils defensemen has been in the hits era and it isn't very close. Even Seth Helgeson didn't get to this level. My contention is basically that the more a defenseman hits past a certain threshold, the harder it is for that player to be a full-time NHLer. It means that they are either getting out of position or otherwise neglecting the puck in order to make physical contact.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Like most things I think there are multiple ways to skin the cat. In a perfect universe you’d have six two way defenders that could do it all. I think in reality there has to be balance because there aren’t enough good players. I doubt a defense of six Girard would work not woukd one of six Daneyko. Would one of six Seversons work? That last one maybe. We tend to get focused on the alternative between physical in zone defense and the other elements. I don’t think it’s controversial to say a team wants all of them in each player. I think the problems arise when a guy is too biased in one direction.

One Severson is one too many. (Someone had to say it).

 

[My3Sons]

One Severson is one too many. (Someone had to say it).

He’s a flawed but capable player. He’s a bit chaotic but I think he’d be more appreciated if he was strictly a second pair guy and thr team was solid. He’s been asked to do way too much throughout his career.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

I look at Severson like The Greatest American Hero with William Katt. He has the powers, sometimes he can’t control them, but in the end he saves the day more often than not.

 

[My3Sons]

This is all fair but the thing is that the NHL is just moving away from guys like Okhotiuk who hit everything in sight, it's just so hard to be good when you do that. He registered 16 hits in 75 minutes of ice time, if he played 1000 minutes this would give him 213 hits. Santini in 2018 would've had 156 hits in 1000 minutes. Volchenkov would've had around 150 hits in his final season here in 1000 minutes.

What we don't know is if the Devils have changed scorers since then, and obviously Okhotiuk only played a few games, but this pace is the hittingest a Devils defensemen has been in the hits era and it isn't very close. Even Seth Helgeson didn't get to this level. My contention is basically that the more a defenseman hits past a certain threshold, the harder it is for that player to be a full-time NHLer. It means that they are either getting out of position or otherwise neglecting the puck in order to make physical contact.

At some point they will allow real tracking data to be realessed. Until then it’s just guessing. Hits counted by some random stats guy don’t tell the story. I think that a defender who just runs around looking to hit is hurting his team because he will be out of position routinely. To me that would be obvious. Untimely you want to blunt the attack and turn it around. If you only do one thing it’s hard to be a consistent player.

 

[Devils731]

He’s a flawed but capable player. He’s a bit chaotic but I think he’d be more appreciated if he was strictly a second pair guy and thr team was solid. He’s been asked to do way too much throughout his career.

Devils also ask him to do things outside his strengths because he’s still better than other options they have.

He shouldn’t have to play PK and he can play PP but his value at ES is so much higher that he’s help a team the most by only playing heavy ES minutes.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…

 

[My3Sons]

Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…

Look, we all know where this is headed so I’ll just cut to the chase…

 

[Billdo]

One Severson is one too many. (Someone had to say it).

Even if that person is wrong, yes, someone usually says something wrong.

 

[Bone Density]

 

[Billdo]

Hopefully he forces his way onto the team. I can see it happening if Wood isn't healthy although we seem to have too many forwards as it stands.

 

[Bleedred]

Blocking shots are good and fine when it’s in the moment and on impulse.

A guy that just gets sent out there to block shots (Dan Girardi was famous for this) is pretty much a negative and it pretty much means he’s good for getting pinned back in his D-zone. Particularly at even strength.

 

[Bleedred]

I think our shitty goalies (which has been a thing since Severson came into the NHL, minus Schneider in his first two years in the NHL, but Severson wasn’t all that great in his second year in the NHL after a very impressive start to his rookie year) make people hate and critique our defense even more.

Someone had to say it.

It won’t be long before I get to bitch endlessly about no-count Blackwood frequently.

So now, back to your regularly scheduled programming and bitching about the defense.

 

[Billdo]

I think our shitty goalies (which has been a thing since Severson came into the NHL, minus Schneider in his first two years in the NHL, but Severson wasn’t all that great in his second year in the NHL after a very impressive start to his rookie year) make people hate and critique our defense even more.

Someone had to say it.

It won’t be long before I get to bitch endlessly about no-count Blackwood frequently.

So now, back to your regularly programming and bitching about the defense.

Wait, there's more bitching about Blackwood on the way? (Just busting your chops, buddy)