Not to dredge up a 2-day old conversation, but I don;t hang out here much on the weekends and thought some of this was worth responding to.
Since we obviously can't keep all our LD prospects I'm more of a fan of Bahl then Okhotyuk as I feel he brings something different that the Devils don't have.
I'm pretty ambivalent on both of these. I actually think Oko brings more of what the team is missing than Bahl, but everyone loves a giant guy with giant reach that can skate half decent. I'd love for both to get some decent playing time this season to get more of an idea of the upsides of both.
Tampa had three, wsh and pens had three or even more. Colorado had three without Samuel. Makar was top 4 player in play off in blockshots.
Metrics of 20-21 yo defensive rockie in the bad team with bad goaltending in 5 games is a bad thing to judge.
The whole basement of critique is based on false. Okhotiuk is exactly what Devils needs. Especially when we have Dougie, Nemec and Hughes( in perspective) in the roster.
Posts like this
"The shift in defense has largely had to do with teams realizing that it's actually a bad thing when your D are racking up a ton of hits and shot blocks. You prefer defense that can pass the puck out of the zone and wingers that can get into position to receive those passes quickly. "
Better to use as toilet paper. Devils built their d core this way in Shero era. That was a sh1t show.
No one who try to build winning team, would prefer this.
Yeah, I mentioned multiple times that I'm not too worried about the analytics for a player that played less than 100 minutes.
I think maybe I should have added more nuance to my posts. There is certainly a time and place where shot blocks are valuable (though by nature of the playoffs, of course a d that logs big minutes for the team that wins is going to be high up the ladder of shot blocks). What I meant to say is that most good teams only have 1 or 2 good versions of this player that suppresses scoring chances but doesn't contribute to moving the puck up ice at a high rate. Of course you need someone who can anchor your PK and do the dirty work for your more offensive D. But you prefer those players can contribute to possession in their own right, ala Seigenthaler last year.
That the Devils specifically failed with a defense built this way does not inherently mean it is wrong. This is far too results-oriented when considering something as interdependent on other variables as this in the context of a game where results can often be, frankly, random.
It's a bad stat because blocking a lot of shots also means you're spending a lot of time in your own zone.
This is the point of my argument. I love a D that can get in front of a shot when they need to (and I love a forward that does this even more), but very often the leaders in this category are someone who is there because they were giving the opponent more opportunities to shoot.
I did quick math here so please forgive me if someone double checks me and finds I'm wrong, but by my count there were 33 defensemen last season that played at least 500 minutes even strength and have 5+ blocks/60 minutes. Of those, only 6 had a scoring chances for % over 50%, the average was 46.9%. Those same players averaged 47.6% in xGF%, again, only 8 of those 33 had an xGF% on 50% or better.
There were 27 D that played at least 500 minutes even strength and averaged 8+ hits/60, of those, only 7 averaged 50% or higher for scoring chances, and the overall average was 48.5%. Only 7 of those had an xGF% of 50% or higher and the average xGF% was 48.0.
If you take all D that played 500 minutes and averaged %+ shot blocks and hits/60, you're left with 21 players with an average SCF% of 46.1% and and average xGF% of 46.5%. There are exactly two such players with positives in both of these categories, and coincidentally enough they both play for Vegas, Zach Whitecloud and Brayden McNabb.
This is by no means a perfect statistical analysis, but it paints the picture of how uncommon it is that the D that are high in both hits and shot blocks are leading to more scoring opportunities for their team than for their opponent.
I respectfully couldn't disagree much more with several of the philosophies -- though well thought out and conveyed -- expressed here.
There's a lot of detail in here to respond to, but I'll focus on Okhotyuk and the idea that a team with a defense focused on possession is somehow superior to a team with a physical defense which can block shots, win battles down low and clear creases with authority.
Personally, I felt one of the most under-noticed aspects of the Colorado Stanley Cup win was how their defense played even better once analytic darling Samuel Girard went down with injury and was replaced in the roster by analytic pariah Jack Johnson. The Avalanche had more than enough offense from the blueline with Makar, Byram and Toews -- all three of whom are very good defensively as well -- that I felt Girard's all-offense/poor defense was quite a detriment to the team overall, something which was glaring to me the previous year when they lost in the playoffs to Vegas. Jack Johnson shored up the blueline and made the Avs tougher to play, as it gave them four physical guys back there along with Erik Johnson, Manson and Byram. And I think we should also mention that Makar is terrific in his own end and one hell of a shot-blocker.
The fact is that hockey is not math; it is not quantifiable by any math metric other than which team scores the most goals to win the most games, and which players are doing most of the scoring. We've seen this with the Devils many times over the years. A big hit changes momentum. There is no metric for momentum, but I was watching the 1995 Stanley Cup Final which was literally the biggest upset of the decade in the NHL -- a series which was completely taken over due to Scott Stevens' legendary physicality. The hit on Kozlov changed the tenor of the series, a series in which the Red Wings had every talent advantage imaginable.
For the past decade, the Devils have been literally rag-dolled by a very tough and physical division. At times, it's been sickening to watch. Brad Marchand nearly decapitates first Marcus Johansson then Ty Smith after the whistle and no Devil raises a hand to him. Do we think this is not indicative of the Devils losing ways over the past decade because we cannot quantify it analytically? A big hit changes not only the spirit and mood of the players on both sides of it, but also the way certain players approach the game.
There are skill forwards in the NHL who quite simply won't skate into a puck battle when it's against a defenseman who know will punish them physically. There are skill forwards who will avoid the crease against tougher defensemen, and the greasy areas where most NHL goals are scored.
This is not a "size" thing. Kris Letang is a tough physical defenseman at 5'10. But Ty Smith was not, and Will Butcher was not, and both of those defensemen seriously hurt the Devils in their own zone. Both were "new age" defensemen, in the vein of Shayne Gostisbehere or Tony deAngelo, two other players who hurt their teams more than they help them, especially come playoff time. But you can win with the Erik Johnsons and Josh Mansons and Luke Schenns because they free up the Cale Makars and Viktor Hedmans to play their games, they kill penalties, and they force the opposition scorers to always feel uncomfortable and be looking over their shoulders down low.
It's not as simple as "if you have the puck, it's impossible for the other team to score". Because even the very best possession teams get about a 60-40 advantage there against the very worst possession teams. Every NHL team will possess the puck for significant time, no matter what, because that's just hockey. If the other team is dominating down low during their 40% and your team is on the perimeter during their 60% -- well, your team is still going to lose the game. We saw that with the Devils in multiple losses against the Blue Jackets this year -- the Devils dominating the possession game, the Blue Jackets dominating the down low game and coming away with the W.
Of course, there is a balance. You need scorers, and I'm not advocating a team of pugilists. I'm not a Mason Geertsen fan, and I'm not an old school dinosaur. I watch a ton of hockey at every level and skill is the most important quality for a winning team. However -- it's also the salary cap era and you can't afford 6 high-level skill defenders and 12 high-level skill forwards for your roster. Even if you could, you'd have to take into account the psychology that a high skill player isn't happy with 4th line or 3rd pairing minutes. And even if they were, this all-star team could still be beaten by a well-balanced team with different types of players playing different roles, because someone's got to block the shots and someone's got to clear the crease and someone's got to kill the penalties and someone's got to put their head down and forecheck.
I know I'm long-winded here, but back to Okhotyuk. He's a physical, high-energy defender with physicality and a guy who relishes his role as a punishing defender. His potential to me is quite high -- like a slightly less cerebral but more physical Ryan Graves, a perfect player to pair with a Simon Nemec down the line if Okhotyuk reaches his potential. Why? Because Okhotyuk's attention to detail on defense and reticence to take risks will free up Nemec to do more with the puck. Because knowing your partner is defensively reliable enables you to take more chances with stretch passing out of the zone. Because having an Okhotyuk to give you a breather on the PK gives you more rest and energy for where you excel on the power play.
The fact is that the best teams in hockey perennially have strong and physical defense cores beyond their star defensemen. As noted, Girard hurt Colorado in the 2021 playoffs and his injury was beneficial to their 2022 Stanley Cup run. Tampa's defense corps were physically huge and overall physical beyond Hedman and Sergachev with McDonagh, Cernak and Bogosian. The Rangers would certainly not have been in the Eastern Conference finals with DeAngelo on the blueline instead of K'Andre Miller -- and we all saw how DeAngelo was the biggest detriment to Carolina whatsoever as they were upset by the very same Rangers in the semi-finals. And please, don't argue Cale Makar as a "new age" defenseman -- if anything his closest NHL comparable is Bobby Orr. I can go on for awhile, but the point is easy for Devils fans, and finally (sorry) I'm going to get to it.
The New Jersey Devils have an extraordinary base for a future defense corps with Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. All three of these players have star-like offensive capability -- we're talking 70-point potential. So, we don't need to add an all-offense defender, plain and simple. We need Siegenthaler and Graves and hopefully guys like Okhotyuk and Mukhamadullin or whomever will develop into these types of players.
Balance is the key to a winning hockey club. Not Corsi, not Fenwick... balance. You get a high skill core of players (Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec on the blueline -- Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Mercer, Holtz, Gritsyuk up front) and you surround them with players who excel in other areas. Face-offs, shot-blocking, forechecking, penalty killing, defensive acuity -- you name it. There's a reason the trade deadline saw big trades for defensemen from losing teams like Manson, Lyubushkin and Chiarot but no one thought to make a deal for Shayne Gostisbehere, who was piling up points for the worst team in the Western Conference.
I won't claim to know hockey better than you because I know that is not true. Just a couple of points here I wanted to respond to.
For one, I am no fan of players like Gostisbehere and DeAngelo. Despite the fact that they can score a bunch of points, they're about as useless to me as the defender spending all their time blocking shots because their team doesn't have the puck.
I've tried to make it clear that I value what Seigenthaler does very highly and I absolutely think that is a critical component of a successful team. My only point with regard to Okhotiuk is that I want these players to contribute to possession at even strength, and I'm not sold on his ability to do that yet. If he can, then he will be a valuable player for us given his strengths with skating and positional play.
I know I'm asking for a lot here as you can't just choose to have a perfect team in a salary cap league. As you said, you have to utilize players that are not perfect in roles that will help them excel and result in a balanced team as a whole. I've said here that hockey is random, and what I mean by that is that the same shot can be saved most of the time and score some times, and it's typically nothing to do with what any single player did differently and everything to do with luck. You can have the same pattern of play with the same 5 skaters on offense and defense and the same goalie run 100 times and you will almost certainly not get 100/0 or 50/50 or anything close to either. This is a tiny puck on ice that bounces unpredictably. The randomness is far greater than many other sports we could discuss. Because of that (and the rules of the game), no it is not possible for a team to maintain possession for 65%+ like it is in soccer. That's why I value every % a player can add so highly, because the difference between 48 and 52 can be meaningless in one game, but it can be massive when extrapolated across 82 games.
I'm asking for a unicorn, a player that can skate well, pass well, has size, sound positionally, and can still do the dirty work when it is actually necessary. There aren't a lot of players like this which is why you lock them up when you think you've found one, like we did with Seigenthaler. It's a very high bar to clear and obvious every team can't fill their roster with them, but that's what I'm hoping for from a player like Okhotiuk.
I think this argument often gets presented as offense vs. defense, when what I'm saying is that traits that are traditionally thought of as offensive traits make you more difficult to score on, and traits traditionally thought of as defensive traits aren't necessarily doing that. I'm not trying to say every defenseman should be an offensive defenseman, but I do think your team is better when every defenseman can consistently make an outlet pass and spend more time with the puck than without it. That's the only concern I have for Okohtiuk ( and Bahl) right now.
Interesting tidbit I noticed while checking these numbers which isn't necessarily related to this topic: Ty Smith is the only Devils defenseman to play 500+ minutes this year and have an xGF% under 51% (48.44%). We all know Ty Smith is not a good defensive player in the shot blocking or possession since, but the xGF% and SCF% in 480 minutes played with Subban are 54.05% and 52.05% respectively. This is a pro PK tweet more than a pro Smith tweet.
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