Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

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RSeen

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Hopefully he forces his way onto the team. I can see it happening if Wood isn't healthy although we seem to have too many forwards as it stands.
I don't know if I see him making it this year. We have a lot of forwards on the roster at the moment. Next year could make more sense with Johnsson and Tatar gone, but either way, I think Foote's lack of foot speed will limit his ability to play with this roster.
 
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Camille the Eel

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One of my biggest hopes for this season is Jack plays 75+ games. I wanna see him get the long season in and maintain PPG, but its not a requirement. Consistency over the whole season is important
Just playing a full season - like Bratt last year (or was it the year before? but that was weird Covid time to be sure) - to show that Jack can stand up to the pounding of the NHL.

He’s among the top elite offensive creative talents, the league recognizes that already. He’s also a major box office and media attraction. The face of the team and one of the faces of the league and changes the value of the NJ franchise upward and of the league too as far as viewer appeal and profile.

The question is can he take the pounding? And he’s going to attract more and more of it, the better that both he and the team get.

The injuries last year - shoulder and knee - the one the Seattle defenseman planting him into the ice upper body first; the Rangers guy (was it Rangers) maybe knee on knee - were both on plays Jack initiated or at least could have avoided. Or so I think. Against Seattle by staying low as he attempted to go by the defender; against NY by not going back at a guy after contact.

Anyway let him play a full season.
 
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My3Sons

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Just playing a full season - like Bratt last year (or was it the year before? but that was weird Covid time to be sure) - to show that Jack can stand up to the pounding of the NHL.

He’s among the top elite offensive creative talents, the league recognizes that already. He’s also a major box office and media attraction. The face of the team and one of the faces of the league and changes the value of the NJ franchise upward and of the league too as far as viewer appeal and profile.

The question is can he take the pounding? And he’s going to attract more and more of it, the better that both he and the team get.

The injuries last year - shoulder and knee - the one the Seattle defenseman planting him into the ice upper body first; the Rangers guy (was it Rangers) maybe knee on knee - were both on plays Jack initiated or at least could have avoided. Or so I think. Against Seattle by staying low as he attempted to go by the defender; against NY by not going back at a guy after contact.

Anyway let him play a full season.
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I’ll think that hit leading to the shoulder injury was into the numbers on Jack’s back. The league let’s they go all the time. I’m not sure why drilling someone in thr back is good physical play or good defense.
 

Camille the Eel

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Without mentioning slamming him to the ice after lol
It was the slam into the ice where I think he planted an elbow and popped the shoulder out. And my impression of it was that he could have protected himself better and stayed lower in that phase of the wrestling match (so to speak - the opponent got below him and sort of lifted and planted him). But really I would have to watch the play again.
 

OlfactoryHughes

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I’ll think that hit leading to the shoulder injury was into the numbers on Jack’s back. The league let’s they go all the time. I’m not sure why drilling someone in thr back is good physical play or good defense.

No call on the play so obviously it’s great defense, neutralized jack for a month.

with ruff saying….

"I watched the hit," said Ruff after the game. "I don't like how he fell, but the hit itself, I can't find a lot I would have to criticize. It's just that when he went down, I've had my share of shoulder injuries.”

Re-watching it myself, I have issues with it. As you said, he’s behind jack the whole time and just kinda smears him face first into the boards, it wasn’t a big crushing hit, but it was clearly from behind, with jack vulnerable, and no where to go.
 

OlfactoryHughes

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If you watch again in slow motion, you can even see a bit of a slew foot motion from Lauzon’s left leg, not that he got his foot, but kinda knees the back of his thigh in an upward motion that sends jack down harder then he would have fallen.

Nothing like getting irritated over something that’s ancient history to get your Sunday off to a good start. Thanks HF;)
 

Triumph

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Just playing a full season - like Bratt last year (or was it the year before? but that was weird Covid time to be sure) - to show that Jack can stand up to the pounding of the NHL.

He’s among the top elite offensive creative talents, the league recognizes that already. He’s also a major box office and media attraction. The face of the team and one of the faces of the league and changes the value of the NJ franchise upward and of the league too as far as viewer appeal and profile.

The question is can he take the pounding? And he’s going to attract more and more of it, the better that both he and the team get.

The injuries last year - shoulder and knee - the one the Seattle defenseman planting him into the ice upper body first; the Rangers guy (was it Rangers) maybe knee on knee - were both on plays Jack initiated or at least could have avoided. Or so I think. Against Seattle by staying low as he attempted to go by the defender; against NY by not going back at a guy after contact.

Anyway let him play a full season.

Jack Hughes played a full season in 2020-21, I don't know why this gets overlooked. He played all 56 games of the craziest season a player will ever play, the only thing that was different was the lack of travel, but the Devils played 47 games in 85 days, Jack played in every one, and no one will be asked to do that again in the NHL.
 

Jack Be Quick

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This

I will quibble on the Makar and Orr comparison. I love Makar and consider him actually sounder defensively than expected - he will effortlessly shut down a play, taking a perfect angle to the boards to cut off a winger for example, using great technique to body the guy, take the puck away and start the other direction.

He’s actually better at that defensively than Orr.

But I watched Orr during his prime pretty much every game either on TV or at Boston Garden and there’s no comparison in the contemporary game with anyone as to what he did end to end carrying the puck. He was dominant in a way no one is today. Could pick the rush up behind his net and in need skate through an opposition team that knew it was coming.

The game has changed so much since then too. The level and skill of the opposition included. I just don’t think any contemporary player is a good comparison with him any more than anyone is with Gretzky.
Not even Lidstrom?

I'm too young to have seen Orr in real time, but that's impressive praise. Because as much as I love Nieds and Scotty, Niklas was an animal that I'm grateful to have watched in my lifetime.

And people really need to pump the break on Makar. He's obviously a special player but we're talking about a guy who has been in the league for 3 years.

Erik Karlsson was supposedly the second coming for a few years as well.
 
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Guttersniped

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I’m late to the Okhotiuk debate but I don’t have a problem with being a HM on Pronman’s list.

He debuted at #18 in 2019, when we were 3rd (up from 20th in 2018) and the list had 23 prospects, plus 4 “Depth Players”. This was NHL Farm Rankings, without NHL players, so it covered a lot of prospects.*

Okhotiuk was an HM (then called “NHL Potential”) in 2021 when Pronman changed it to Organizational Ranking with NHL players 22 or under (but he was still including older prospects, up to 26, like Kaprizov). He made an effort to cut fringier players, we ranked 2nd and our list had 13 players with 12 HM.

Okhotiuk got dropped in 2021, when we ranked 6th, with 15 players listed and 12 HM (changed again to “Has a chance to play”). Pronman now limited the list to 22 and under for all players.

He’s back now, with our list at 14 and HM at 10.

So Okhotiuk has popped back in, probably in part due to his call up. It’s actually a positive thing to say he could be a 3rd pairing guy in the NHL.

It’s tough to make it beyond that with just defense in the NHL, you need puck moving skills and/or offensive production as well to get ice time.

If you look at the few guys who get more ice time with just defense and physical play they tend to have one thing in common and that’s size.

Bahl’s size does in fact matter and he has a more of a history of offensive production as well. Pronman only sees him a 3rd pairing guy too.

Siegenthaler’s ice time despite his production is actually kind of rare, it’s not a model, and there’s a reason he said he wants to increase his scoring this season.

You have to look at it in terms of comparable players.

There just aren’t guys who didn’t score much at all in the CHL playing big minutes in the NHL. The NCAA has really taken over the market of defensive defensemen.

Even then, there is usually some offense in college and typically a big selling point is their size.

If we put in with Russian defensemen, then you’re looking at players who are older and coming over in their prime after having established themselves in the KHL.

Perhaps he could have developed more offense in the OHL if his age 19 season didn’t get cut short and his age 20 season wasn’t spent in fake AHL season on an undermanned squad.

I like Okhotiuk and Pronman actually does too.
Expecting him to say he has top four potential now is expecting too much. If he shoots beyond these expectations then great.

*Side Note: The “Depth Players” in 2019 were Sharangovich, Hoelscher, Gritsyuk and McCarthy, which ended up being the strongest group of any team (with a major roster player plus #10 on his 2022 list).

The other current NHL roster players from other teams 2019 DP lists were Blake Lizotte (LAK), Gustav Lindstrom (DET), Joel Kiviranta (DAL), Gabriel Carlsson (CLB) and Jeremy Lauzon (BOS).

The other prospects young enough to still be on Pronman’s 2022 list who made it are all HM: Hunter Skinner D (NYR), Danila Zuravlyov D (COL), Matthew Steinberg F (COL), Liam Kirk F (ARI) and Nikita Nesterenko F (MIN).

Yes, I got sidetracked by plunging down that rabbit hole.






 
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billingtons ghost

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Yes, but if youre blocking a lot of shots it means you're probably stuck in your own end a lot.

Just like if you have a lot of hits it means you are chasing the puck a lot
Bollocks. Seider, weegar, josi, jones, fox, martinez, McAvoy among block leaders last season. It means more than just being in your zone. It means exactly what was said above; the anticipation and skating ability to put yourself in a position to block a shot.

Yeah, there's Brooks Orpik on the alltime list but guys like Duncan Keith, Weber, suter and Carlson with him.
 

Triumph

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Bollocks. Seider, weegar, josi, jones, fox, martinez, McAvoy among block leaders last season. It means more than just being in your zone. It means exactly what was said above; the anticipation and skating ability to put yourself in a position to block a shot.

Yeah, there's Brooks Orpik on the alltime list but guys like Duncan Keith, Weber, suter and Carlson with him.

Your initial point is correct to a degree that good defensemen also accumulate a lot of blocked shots, but they also play more than worse defensemen. Unfortunately NHL.com doesn't allow us to break down blocked shots by game state, but Seider is the only one in the top 50 in blocks/60 at 48 (minimum 40 games) - but now we're getting the reverse survivorship bias of guys who play on the power play seldom blocking shots there, whereas guys who only kill penalties and play at ES getting more opportunities to block. All I know is that most of the top of that list of blocks/60 are not guys I want more than one of on my team.

Blocking shots is barely a skill. It's very difficult to do and takes a lifetime to learn, but at the NHL level, it's just not making much of a difference to who wins and loses. Good teams do it, bad teams do it, there's not a huge repeatable ability to block shots on defense and not get shots blocked on offense.
 
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Goptor

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Josi put up 10 more points on a weaker offensive team so Makar wasn't even tops currently.

He just gets more attention because Josi has been around for a while.
 
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Guttersniped

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I respectfully couldn't disagree much more with several of the philosophies -- though well thought out and conveyed -- expressed here.

There's a lot of detail in here to respond to, but I'll focus on Okhotyuk and the idea that a team with a defense focused on possession is somehow superior to a team with a physical defense which can block shots, win battles down low and clear creases with authority.

Personally, I felt one of the most under-noticed aspects of the Colorado Stanley Cup win was how their defense played even better once analytic darling Samuel Girard went down with injury and was replaced in the roster by analytic pariah Jack Johnson. The Avalanche had more than enough offense from the blueline with Makar, Byram and Toews -- all three of whom are very good defensively as well -- that I felt Girard's all-offense/poor defense was quite a detriment to the team overall, something which was glaring to me the previous year when they lost in the playoffs to Vegas. Jack Johnson shored up the blueline and made the Avs tougher to play, as it gave them four physical guys back there along with Erik Johnson, Manson and Byram. And I think we should also mention that Makar is terrific in his own end and one hell of a shot-blocker.

The fact is that hockey is not math; it is not quantifiable by any math metric other than which team scores the most goals to win the most games, and which players are doing most of the scoring. We've seen this with the Devils many times over the years. A big hit changes momentum. There is no metric for momentum, but I was watching the 1995 Stanley Cup Final which was literally the biggest upset of the decade in the NHL -- a series which was completely taken over due to Scott Stevens' legendary physicality. The hit on Kozlov changed the tenor of the series, a series in which the Red Wings had every talent advantage imaginable.

For the past decade, the Devils have been literally rag-dolled by a very tough and physical division. At times, it's been sickening to watch. Brad Marchand nearly decapitates first Marcus Johansson then Ty Smith after the whistle and no Devil raises a hand to him. Do we think this is not indicative of the Devils losing ways over the past decade because we cannot quantify it analytically? A big hit changes not only the spirit and mood of the players on both sides of it, but also the way certain players approach the game.

There are skill forwards in the NHL who quite simply won't skate into a puck battle when it's against a defenseman who know will punish them physically. There are skill forwards who will avoid the crease against tougher defensemen, and the greasy areas where most NHL goals are scored.

This is not a "size" thing. Kris Letang is a tough physical defenseman at 5'10. But Ty Smith was not, and Will Butcher was not, and both of those defensemen seriously hurt the Devils in their own zone. Both were "new age" defensemen, in the vein of Shayne Gostisbehere or Tony deAngelo, two other players who hurt their teams more than they help them, especially come playoff time. But you can win with the Erik Johnsons and Josh Mansons and Luke Schenns because they free up the Cale Makars and Viktor Hedmans to play their games, they kill penalties, and they force the opposition scorers to always feel uncomfortable and be looking over their shoulders down low.

It's not as simple as "if you have the puck, it's impossible for the other team to score". Because even the very best possession teams get about a 60-40 advantage there against the very worst possession teams. Every NHL team will possess the puck for significant time, no matter what, because that's just hockey. If the other team is dominating down low during their 40% and your team is on the perimeter during their 60% -- well, your team is still going to lose the game. We saw that with the Devils in multiple losses against the Blue Jackets this year -- the Devils dominating the possession game, the Blue Jackets dominating the down low game and coming away with the W.

Of course, there is a balance. You need scorers, and I'm not advocating a team of pugilists. I'm not a Mason Geertsen fan, and I'm not an old school dinosaur. I watch a ton of hockey at every level and skill is the most important quality for a winning team. However -- it's also the salary cap era and you can't afford 6 high-level skill defenders and 12 high-level skill forwards for your roster. Even if you could, you'd have to take into account the psychology that a high skill player isn't happy with 4th line or 3rd pairing minutes. And even if they were, this all-star team could still be beaten by a well-balanced team with different types of players playing different roles, because someone's got to block the shots and someone's got to clear the crease and someone's got to kill the penalties and someone's got to put their head down and forecheck.

I know I'm long-winded here, but back to Okhotyuk. He's a physical, high-energy defender with physicality and a guy who relishes his role as a punishing defender. His potential to me is quite high -- like a slightly less cerebral but more physical Ryan Graves, a perfect player to pair with a Simon Nemec down the line if Okhotyuk reaches his potential. Why? Because Okhotyuk's attention to detail on defense and reticence to take risks will free up Nemec to do more with the puck. Because knowing your partner is defensively reliable enables you to take more chances with stretch passing out of the zone. Because having an Okhotyuk to give you a breather on the PK gives you more rest and energy for where you excel on the power play.

The fact is that the best teams in hockey perennially have strong and physical defense cores beyond their star defensemen. As noted, Girard hurt Colorado in the 2021 playoffs and his injury was beneficial to their 2022 Stanley Cup run. Tampa's defense corps were physically huge and overall physical beyond Hedman and Sergachev with McDonagh, Cernak and Bogosian. The Rangers would certainly not have been in the Eastern Conference finals with DeAngelo on the blueline instead of K'Andre Miller -- and we all saw how DeAngelo was the biggest detriment to Carolina whatsoever as they were upset by the very same Rangers in the semi-finals. And please, don't argue Cale Makar as a "new age" defenseman -- if anything his closest NHL comparable is Bobby Orr. I can go on for awhile, but the point is easy for Devils fans, and finally (sorry) I'm going to get to it.

The New Jersey Devils have an extraordinary base for a future defense corps with Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. All three of these players have star-like offensive capability -- we're talking 70-point potential. So, we don't need to add an all-offense defender, plain and simple. We need Siegenthaler and Graves and hopefully guys like Okhotyuk and Mukhamadullin or whomever will develop into these types of players.

Balance is the key to a winning hockey club. Not Corsi, not Fenwick... balance. You get a high skill core of players (Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec on the blueline -- Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Mercer, Holtz, Gritsyuk up front) and you surround them with players who excel in other areas. Face-offs, shot-blocking, forechecking, penalty killing, defensive acuity -- you name it. There's a reason the trade deadline saw big trades for defensemen from losing teams like Manson, Lyubushkin and Chiarot but no one thought to make a deal for Shayne Gostisbehere, who was piling up points for the worst team in the Western Conference.


I couldn't agree with you more.

You compare defensemen who have played a ton of hockey to young defensemen who haven’t though. Colorado has a very young defensive core, Toews is the elder at 28.

Despite his youth Byram was 3rd in 5v5 TOI/GP in the playoff, by far, for the Avs. Girard was 4th in the 7 games he played and he played well.

I think a more seasoned Makar and a brilliant playoff debut by Byram were the most important pieces this year.

Manson had an excellent playoffs, but he’s always paired well with more dynamic defensemen. He was also an 8 year veteran who in his short peak was top 4 defenseman on a very deep unit.

Erik Johnson was the #1 pick in 2006 and has played 857 regular season games. Jack Johnson was the #3 pick in 2005 and has 1024 GP. Luke Schenn was the #5 pick in 2008 and has 863 GP. They were very toolsy, talented guys at one point and have a ton of experience.

In comparison, Butcher was a 5th round pick and he played 275 NHL games. Good for him.

You name a bunch of offensive defenseman and call them “new age defensemen”. I don’t understand the term. I would argue that back in the day the NHL was kinder more one dimensional offensive types. With fewer power plays per game, being a PPQ doesn’t get you much love now. There aren’t many offensive specialists around now and they have to score a ton to hang on (Barrie is another example).

The fact is you need defense from forwards and you need offense from your defensemen or you lose. You don’t need that from all of them but you need it.

One of the reasons the Devils weren’t contenders post-lock out, even when did well in the regular season, was the lack of offense from the blue line. You can’t have six spots with Andy Greene being, by far, the best offensive player. And the best Lou could do at times was dig up Zidlicky’s corpse.

It’s easy to say Colorado needed more size, experience, pushback, etc when they had so much in terms of puck moving, possession and offense from there already.

And turning it back to Okhotiuk, Manson is listed at 6’3” and 218. He was also 23 before he played his first NHL game. Lyubushkin was 24 when he played his first. Graves was 23, and he’s more of PMD with a good amount of offense.

Okhotiuk is 21 with a December birthday and he lost development time due to COVID. He has another year on his ELC after this, he has runway left. I don’t know how good he is at PKing, but that will be important.

He’ll have to turn into a defensive stud to thread the needle, it’s tough to make the NHL in this role and even tougher to stick. The longevity of the players who do, plus the higher end guys who ease into the role later in their careers, don’t make it easier for new guys.

When I mentioned it’s tough to find directly comparable players in my other post, Ben Chiarot is a guy who didn’t score much at all in the OHL or AHL. He also played half his first pro season in the ECHL. Other than one random call-up in the season before at 22, Chiarot started playing in the NHL when he was 23. He’s listed at 6’3” and 226 as well.

Okhotiuk plays bigger than his size and who knows if his current listed measurements (6’1” & 194) are that up to date. That said, there’s a reason the defensive defenseman with established jobs are bigger than the average NHL player.
 
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Goptor

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Your initial point is correct to a degree that good defensemen also accumulate a lot of blocked shots, but they also play more than worse defensemen. Unfortunately NHL.com doesn't allow us to break down blocked shots by game state, but Seider is the only one in the top 50 in blocks/60 at 48 (minimum 40 games) - but now we're getting the reverse survivorship bias of guys who play on the power play seldom blocking shots there, whereas guys who only kill penalties and play at ES getting more opportunities to block. All I know is that most of the top of that list of blocks/60 are not guys I want more than one of on my team.

Blocking shots is barely a skill. It's very difficult to do and takes a lifetime to learn, but at the NHL level, it's just not making much of a difference to who wins and loses. Good teams do it, bad teams do it, there's not a huge repeatable ability to block shots on defense and not get shots blocked on offense.

Blocked shots is very important. Some of the best scoring chances come after a blocked shot because the defense isn't properly positioned yet.


Good example:


Notice favorite defenseman here Cale Makar playing behind the opponents goal line, leaving MacKinnon to make a bad defensive read at the blue line off a blocked shot.
 
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Xirik

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Blocked shots is very important. Some of the best scoring chances come after a blocked shot because the defense isn't properly positioned yet.
then there are the high blocks that manage to cause the puck to go out the zone which allows your teammates to quickly change lines or get better set up.
 
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MasterofGrond

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I'm absolutely just rehashing here but...

Shotblocking is good and maybe pretty important sometimes (even accounting for the risk of injury and other potential negative externalities), but it should never be the cornerstone of a guy's skillset or something mentioned in the first three sentences of a good NHL player's blurb. Pro hockey is a game of possession and transition, and even if blocking a shot sometimes leads to good results in those areas, it's almost certainly generally better to not be in a position where a dude is taking shots at your net that you're hoping to block.

A robotic mega-defenseman would have zero, after all, since they'd recover the puck before it ever got to that point.

I'm pro-defensive defenseman, I'm pro-physicality, I'm pro-having a dude who can win board battles down low, I'm pro-separating guys from pucks. I'm pro all those things as long as they come in a package that can also use them to actually get the puck back out of our end and to the forwards

Shot-blocking specifically, though? Nice to have if I'm getting all those previous things, I guess, but if I'm getting those and the dude never goes down to block a shot I'm not crying.
 

Triumph

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Blocked shots is very important. Some of the best scoring chances come after a blocked shot because the defense isn't properly positioned yet.


Good example:


Notice favorite defenseman here Cale Makar playing behind the opponents goal line, leaving MacKinnon to make a bad defensive read at the blue line off a blocked shot.


Sure, that will happen a few times a season, and depending on how much speed or transition ability a team has, it might happen a little more often. It's not a strategy. It's a thing that happens in the course of hockey. This reminds me of the faceoff debates where you can post faceoff wins leading to goals until your youtube feed is just faceoff wins/losses, but faceoffs aren't all that important overall (in part because of this very phenomenon, it's not hard for an offensive zone faceoff win to turn into a breakaway the other way off a block)

Blocked shots aren't important. I suppose it's a skill I would like players to have rather than not have, but it's way, way down on the list.
 

Guttersniped

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I'm absolutely just rehashing here but...

Shotblocking is good and maybe pretty important sometimes (even accounting for the risk of injury and other potential negative externalities), but it should never be the cornerstone of a guy's skillset or something mentioned in the first three sentences of a good NHL player's blurb. Pro hockey is a game of possession and transition, and even if blocking a shot sometimes leads to good results in those areas, it's almost certainly generally better to not be in a position where a dude is taking shots at your net that you're hoping to block.

A robotic mega-defenseman would have zero, after all, since they'd recover the puck before it ever got to that point.

I'm pro-defensive defenseman, I'm pro-physicality, I'm pro-having a dude who can win board battles down low, I'm pro-separating guys from pucks. I'm pro all those things as long as they come in a package that can also use them to actually get the puck back out of our end and to the forwards

Shot-blocking specifically, though? Nice to have if I'm getting all those previous things, I guess, but if I'm getting those and the dude never goes down to block a shot I'm not crying.

It’s not the most complicated thing in the world but you have to do it well.

Which means not screening your own goalie by mistake. Or having the puck take an unfortunate bounce of you. And you need to both accept the pain and know how to avoid serious injury.

Defensive defenseman get judged a lot on defending the rush now, even though everyone here tends to focus on crease clearing (granted our crease was often an open house).

Defensemen can be analyzed in a lot of ways.

They’re tough to project as prospects, that’s why it’s a bit scary to have gone defenseman twice at top. It’s even tougher to project lower picks because they get less rope.

I pushed back on poor @StevenToddIves post about defensemen but he does a terrific job of trying to figure out if defensive prospects has the two-play the current NHL demands, while having enough talent in certain areas to pop.

I like Scott Wheeler, but his love of offensive waterbugs that even he sees as “2nd unit PPQ” just don’t cut it, they most likely will end up really helping the AHL team.

On the other hand, I personally do like Bahl’s size. No problem admitting it. Guilty as charged. He has good flexibility/agility for his size, which along with his reach, makes him tough to outmaneuver.
 

TBF1972

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The way you talk about Okhotyuk is more how I see a player like Bahl. Okhotyuk despite getting a reputation as a hard hitting physical defenseman is actually a very good skater that showcases good positioning and a smart, poised defensive style of play. In his NHL stint specifically he was one of the most steady defenseman on the team when it came to his in zone play and his transition play. There's no guarantee that he'll continue to improve but the base of talent is certainly more intriguing than most defense first prospects.
hamilton's defensive partner, who covers for his short comings.
 
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