The shift in defense has largely had to do with teams realizing that it's actually a bad thing when your D are racking up a ton of hits and shot blocks. You prefer defense that can pass the puck out of the zone and wingers that can get into position to receive those passes quickly. This has really been the case since 2006, but it has become more clear that teams actually understand this and aren't just lucking into it since about 2012-2015. It's taken the collective hockey-watching populous until the past few years to understand this, and I still pull my hair out every time Dano starts bagging on a guy for trying to make a pass instead of lobbing the puck out to center for the other team to collect and attack again.
This is a shift similar to what we've seen in soccer (not to contribute to that debate) with the way Pep Guardiola influenced tactics over the past decade. Your best scoring opportunities come from transition moments, while possession is almost more of a defensive metric. In hockey, it's similar, as you're much more likely to score catching an odd-man rush than you are from chaining together passes and possession in the offensive zone, but you're also more likely to give up scoring chances going the other way. If you have the puck, it's impossible for the other team to score. This is much more difficult to do in hockey than soccer, where the smaller playing surface makes the game faster, the blueline de-incentivizes passing back to maintain possession, and scoring in general is much more of a random event. But the best teams in the modern game are the ones that capitalize when they get chances in transition and out-possess the opponent in order to limit their chances of scoring.
You need a defense capable of doing two different types of things to do this. One is the ability to pass the puck out of the zone with control in order to generate transition opportunities and to maintain puck possession (Severson), the other is to deny the opponent clean zone entries and disrupt their possession (Seigenthaler). It's also an easy trap to fall into to overlook how much of this is dependent on the forwards as well. What makes Seigenthaler so good is how often he is able to do the 2nd part in a way that leads to him or his partner doing the 1st part. Making a big hit in your own zone rarely does this unless the opponent was already outnumbered, but utilizing good positioning and your stick to run the opponent out of options and force them to make a low-% pass sure does. Sure you still need someone to block shots and make life difficult when you're on the PK, but you generally prefer that person is someone that can contribute in the more possession-oriented ways that lead to wins at even strength.
If Okhotiuk is going to make it as an NHLer, it will be in the role of the disruptor. The reason I am on the fence about if he can do that is simply because there are fewer of those spots available and I'm not quite sure his puck skills will allow him to contribute enough to the possession at even strength. This is really more of a sample size issue than anything else. Most of his 5v5 rates were not terribly favorable in the NHL last year, but that was with minimal playing time which makes it difficult to account for usage, linemates, and general bad luck. You really need at least 10-15 games of a player depending on ice-time before you can make any judgements based on data without being disingenuous. I just question if he'll get that chance here given the players ahead of him on the depth chart.
Coleman's defensive impact before he became a scorer was more developed and high-end than what Zetterlund is right now. Not that Zetterlund is bad in that regard, but I would call him more average. Hopefully he gets enough playing time this year to help determine if that cna be a strength of his moving forward.
I respectfully couldn't disagree much more with several of the philosophies -- though well thought out and conveyed -- expressed here.
There's a lot of detail in here to respond to, but I'll focus on Okhotyuk and the idea that a team with a defense focused on possession is somehow superior to a team with a physical defense which can block shots, win battles down low and clear creases with authority.
Personally, I felt one of the most under-noticed aspects of the Colorado Stanley Cup win was how their defense played even better once analytic darling Samuel Girard went down with injury and was replaced in the roster by analytic pariah Jack Johnson. The Avalanche had more than enough offense from the blueline with Makar, Byram and Toews -- all three of whom are very good defensively as well -- that I felt Girard's all-offense/poor defense was quite a detriment to the team overall, something which was glaring to me the previous year when they lost in the playoffs to Vegas. Jack Johnson shored up the blueline and made the Avs tougher to play, as it gave them four physical guys back there along with Erik Johnson, Manson and Byram. And I think we should also mention that Makar is terrific in his own end and one hell of a shot-blocker.
The fact is that hockey is not math; it is not quantifiable by any math metric other than which team scores the most goals to win the most games, and which players are doing most of the scoring. We've seen this with the Devils many times over the years. A big hit changes momentum. There is no metric for momentum, but I was watching the 1995 Stanley Cup Final which was literally the biggest upset of the decade in the NHL -- a series which was completely taken over due to Scott Stevens' legendary physicality. The hit on Kozlov changed the tenor of the series, a series in which the Red Wings had every talent advantage imaginable.
For the past decade, the Devils have been literally rag-dolled by a very tough and physical division. At times, it's been sickening to watch. Brad Marchand nearly decapitates first Marcus Johansson then Ty Smith after the whistle and no Devil raises a hand to him. Do we think this is not indicative of the Devils losing ways over the past decade because we cannot quantify it analytically? A big hit changes not only the spirit and mood of the players on both sides of it, but also the way certain players approach the game.
There are skill forwards in the NHL who quite simply won't skate into a puck battle when it's against a defenseman who know will punish them physically. There are skill forwards who will avoid the crease against tougher defensemen, and the greasy areas where most NHL goals are scored.
This is not a "size" thing. Kris Letang is a tough physical defenseman at 5'10. But Ty Smith was not, and Will Butcher was not, and both of those defensemen seriously hurt the Devils in their own zone. Both were "new age" defensemen, in the vein of Shayne Gostisbehere or Tony deAngelo, two other players who hurt their teams more than they help them, especially come playoff time. But you can win with the Erik Johnsons and Josh Mansons and Luke Schenns because they free up the Cale Makars and Viktor Hedmans to play their games, they kill penalties, and they force the opposition scorers to always feel uncomfortable and be looking over their shoulders down low.
It's not as simple as "if you have the puck, it's impossible for the other team to score". Because even the very best possession teams get about a 60-40 advantage there against the very worst possession teams. Every NHL team will possess the puck for significant time, no matter what, because that's just hockey. If the other team is dominating down low during their 40% and your team is on the perimeter during their 60% -- well, your team is still going to lose the game. We saw that with the Devils in multiple losses against the Blue Jackets this year -- the Devils dominating the possession game, the Blue Jackets dominating the down low game and coming away with the W.
Of course, there is a balance. You need scorers, and I'm not advocating a team of pugilists. I'm not a Mason Geertsen fan, and I'm not an old school dinosaur. I watch a ton of hockey at every level and skill is the most important quality for a winning team. However -- it's also the salary cap era and you can't afford 6 high-level skill defenders and 12 high-level skill forwards for your roster. Even if you could, you'd have to take into account the psychology that a high skill player isn't happy with 4th line or 3rd pairing minutes. And even if they were, this all-star team could still be beaten by a well-balanced team with different types of players playing different roles, because someone's got to block the shots and someone's got to clear the crease and someone's got to kill the penalties and someone's got to put their head down and forecheck.
I know I'm long-winded here, but back to Okhotyuk. He's a physical, high-energy defender with physicality and a guy who relishes his role as a punishing defender. His potential to me is quite high -- like a slightly less cerebral but more physical Ryan Graves, a perfect player to pair with a Simon Nemec down the line if Okhotyuk reaches his potential. Why? Because Okhotyuk's attention to detail on defense and reticence to take risks will free up Nemec to do more with the puck. Because knowing your partner is defensively reliable enables you to take more chances with stretch passing out of the zone. Because having an Okhotyuk to give you a breather on the PK gives you more rest and energy for where you excel on the power play.
The fact is that the best teams in hockey perennially have strong and physical defense cores beyond their star defensemen. As noted, Girard hurt Colorado in the 2021 playoffs and his injury was beneficial to their 2022 Stanley Cup run. Tampa's defense corps were physically huge and overall physical beyond Hedman and Sergachev with McDonagh, Cernak and Bogosian. The Rangers would certainly not have been in the Eastern Conference finals with DeAngelo on the blueline instead of K'Andre Miller -- and we all saw how DeAngelo was the biggest detriment to Carolina whatsoever as they were upset by the very same Rangers in the semi-finals. And please, don't argue Cale Makar as a "new age" defenseman -- if anything his closest NHL comparable is Bobby Orr. I can go on for awhile, but the point is easy for Devils fans, and finally (sorry) I'm going to get to it.
The New Jersey Devils have an extraordinary base for a future defense corps with Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. All three of these players have star-like offensive capability -- we're talking 70-point potential. So, we don't need to add an all-offense defender, plain and simple. We need Siegenthaler and Graves and hopefully guys like Okhotyuk and Mukhamadullin or whomever will develop into these types of players.
Balance is the key to a winning hockey club. Not Corsi, not Fenwick...
balance. You get a high skill core of players (Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec on the blueline -- Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Mercer, Holtz, Gritsyuk up front) and you surround them with players who excel in other areas. Face-offs, shot-blocking, forechecking, penalty killing, defensive acuity -- you name it. There's a reason the trade deadline saw big trades for defensemen from losing teams like Manson, Lyubushkin and Chiarot but no one thought to make a deal for Shayne Gostisbehere, who was piling up points for the worst team in the Western Conference.
Tampa had three, wsh and pens had three or even more. Colorado had three without Samuel. Makar was top 4 player in play off in blockshots.
Metrics of 20-21 yo defensive rockie in the bad team with bad goaltending in 5 games is a bad thing to judge.
The whole basement of critique is based on false. Okhotiuk is exactly what Devils needs. Especially when we have Dougie, Nemec and Hughes( in perspective) in the roster.
Posts like this
"The shift in defense has largely had to do with teams realizing that it's actually a bad thing when your D are racking up a ton of hits and shot blocks. You prefer defense that can pass the puck out of the zone and wingers that can get into position to receive those passes quickly. "
Better to use as toilet paper. Devils built their d core this way in Shero era. That was a sh1t show.
No one who try to build winning team, would prefer this.
I couldn't agree with you more.
