Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[bossram]

It’s not a comparable. It’s a range. That’s my view of how they work. Like a bell curve on the ACT. A student has a 1% chance of getting a 36 and maybe a 1.5% chance of getting a 35. The overwhelming majority won’t but in say 8th and 9th grade there are kids that the range might be 31-36 who then refine that as they get older. It doesn’t mean I think it’s likely or realistic. Pick a different player who is feisty and good and smallish. It’s not the top end comparable name that is a big deal.

Fair enough. But using tail-end outcomes for projecting a player I don't think is particularly useful. Then the "range" for most A and B tier prospects would be from "not an NHLer" to "1st line/1st pair player".

If you're using a bell curve analogy, a range of 1 standard deviation around the mean is maybe more instructive - whatever you perceive Gritsyuk's mean outcome to be.

 

[Guadana]

Jack is the freakin' revolution.

On Gritsyuk, I get that the board is higher on him than Pronman, but it just doesn't seem that egregious. At best, he'd be around #6 in the U23 rankings. And I can see the reservations. I like him, but he is a smallish player who plays "hard" (perhaps opening himself up to injuries) that doesn't have an elite skillset in any area.

He is Top-4.
He has no elite skillset in any area? Who have it where he doesnt?

 

[Goptor]

He is Top-4.
He has no elite skillset in any area? Who have it where he doesnt?

He can't skate the puck like McDavid
He can't shoot the puck like Chara
He can't block shots like Hasek
He can't interview like Lemaire
He can't color commentate like Daneyko


What's the point of having him around?

 

[Cheddabombs]

He can't skate the puck like McDavid
He can't shoot the puck like Chara
He can't block shots like Hasek
He can't interview like Lemaire
He can't color commentate like Daneyko


What's the point of having him around?

To be fair, asking anyone to live up to those expectations is a bit ridiculous. No one can colour commentate like Dano

 

[Guadana]

He can't skate the puck like McDavid
He can't shoot the puck like Chara
He can't block shots like Hasek
He can't interview like Lemaire
He can't color commentate like Daneyko


What's the point of having him around?

We should trade him for 2th round pick. While the HYPE is still hot.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Great debate, I love your posts. Keep up the good work. I can talk about this stuff forever, but I keep myself busy with other writing projects for most of the off-season.

likewise, I always consider something in a different way than I did before when I read your posts, which is definitely appreciated.

Re-reading what I actually wrote, I'd love to spend 2 weeks developing a model to track skaters by various possession metrics and reconcile for their quality of linemates, quality of competition and deployment, and spit it all into one number that weights how well a player maintains possession relative to expected outcomes to see if I'm out to lunch on my theories. I know this data exists out there in some forms, but it would be a fun exercise to have control over it. The biggest motivator is that I don't think enough emphasis is placed on things like the quality of the forwards that a D is on the ice with. We look a lot at quality of competition but not enough, in my opinion at least, at if a D pairing is being asked to cover for a crappy 4th line disproportionately often.

But I work for a software company rather than an NHL analytics department so I'm afraid that may have to wait for another day.

 

[forceten]

We could put it in Snowflake and put smart gals and guys on it with Jupyter notebooks. Woot.

 

[My3Sons]

likewise, I always consider something in a different way than I did before when I read your posts, which is definitely appreciated.

Re-reading what I actually wrote, I'd love to spend 2 weeks developing a model to track skaters by various possession metrics and reconcile for their quality of linemates, quality of competition and deployment, and spit it all into one number that weights how well a player maintains possession relative to expected outcomes to see if I'm out to lunch on my theories. I know this data exists out there in some forms, but it would be a fun exercise to have control over it. The biggest motivator is that I don't think enough emphasis is placed on things like the quality of the forwards that a D is on the ice with. We look a lot at quality of competition but not enough, in my opinion at least, at if a D pairing is being asked to cover for a crappy 4th line disproportionately often.

But I work for a software company rather than an NHL analytics department so I'm afraid that may have to wait for another day.

you are out to lunch but it has nothing to do with your theories. Well, maybe those too.

 

[bossram]

He is Top-4.
He has no elite skillset in any area? Who have it where he doesnt?

So you'd rank him above one of Jack, Mercer, Luke, or Nemec. Well, alright then.

No. He is not elite in any one area. He's still a good prospect.

 

[McDuffz88]

So you'd rank him above one of Jack, Mercer, Luke, or Nemec. Well, alright then.

No. He is not elite in any one area. He's still a good prospect.

I wouldn't consider Jack or Mercer prospects at this point. The poster probably has the same mindset.

 

[bossram]

I wouldn't consider Jack or Mercer prospects at this point. The poster probably has the same mindset.

The whole discussion has been in the context of Pronman's U23 organizational rankings - not just prospects.

 

[NjDevsRR]

 

[Guttersniped]

View attachment 580441

 

[Guadana]

So you'd rank him above one of Jack, Mercer, Luke, or Nemec. Well, alright then.

No. He is not elite in any one area. He's still a good prospect.

Was talked about non nhl prospects. For all u23 players 6th position is important, especially for rebuilding team.

Hughes doesn't have elite skating in pronman view, as I remember. Even if he does it isn't an argument. Lundell didn't have elite skills. Kasper didn't.
If Gritsyuk doesn't have, so other players have better skills to be top 10 u23 player in Devils pipe line? Better established on their level? Very bad argument.

 

[Guadana]

I'm interesting in Dahlen to give him teo way deal. I didn't saw him in Nhl enough, but I watched his allsvenskan games. At least he could be a good addition for Comets.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

I'm interesting in Dahlen to give him teo way deal. I didn't saw him in Nhl enough, but I watched his allsvenskan games. At least he could be a good addition for Comets.

Played for two NHL organizations now without really moving the needle (and actually played for the Comets four years ago when they were a Canucks affiliate).

Should get a better idea of his NHL potential playing in the SHL this year.

 

[Triumph]

I'm interesting in Dahlen to give him teo way deal. I didn't saw him in Nhl enough, but I watched his allsvenskan games. At least he could be a good addition for Comets.

According to eliteprospects he's headed back to Timra, which is not surprising.

 

[Guadana]

According to eliteprospects he's headed back to Timra, which is not surprising.

Played for two NHL organizations now without really moving the needle (and actually played for the Comets four years ago when they were a Canucks affiliate).

Should get a better idea of his NHL potential playing in the SHL this year.

I think he could be good ahler at least. 10-12 goals in nhl is a result or how much he scored. But who cares now.

 

[bossram]

Was talked about non nhl prospects. For all u23 players 6th position is important, especially for rebuilding team.

Hughes doesn't have elite skating in pronman view, as I remember. Even if he does it isn't an argument. Lundell didn't have elite skills. Kasper didn't.
If Gritsyuk doesn't have, so other players have better skills to be top 10 u23 player in Devils pipe line? Better established on their level? Very bad argument.

No one, not even Pronman, is rating him below 10. I don't get what your argument is.

 

[Guadana]

No one, not even Pronman, is rating him below 10. I don't get what your argument is.

Of course you don’t.

 

[bossram]

Of course you don’t.

What argument are you even stating? You're criticizing imaginary people ranking him below #10 in the U23 rankings (no one has).

Are you taking umbrage that I said he has no "elite" skills or that I would maybe put him #6 in the U23 rankings? Umm...sure.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

If Miles Wood plays all 82 games this upcoming season, what are all of your expectations in terms of points?

I'll go ahead and predict 19 goals, 18 assists for 37 points in 82 games.

 

[bossram]

Miles Wood? Maybe 82 game pace of 15/15? But probably unlikely to play a full season.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Miles Wood? Maybe 82 game pace of 15/15? But probably unlikely to play a full season.

I agree, but my question is based on if he does

 

[Cheddabombs]

Will Wood even be ready to start the year lol