Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Devils731]

Is Gritsyuk a possibility to make the team this year? Or is he still signed to play in the KHL?

He has 1 more year on his KHL contract so not until that is up at minimum.

 

[NJDevs26]

I'm no coach but have read enough to believe it's not antiquated and the system exists in just about every organization for good reason.

Even if you want to argue it is, where exactly did it hurt the Devils the last few years? It's not like they actually had better defensemen than Vatanen (pre-playoff injury) or Severson until Fitz took a bulldozer to the D in the last year and a half.

 

[Triumph]

Considering both he and Luke Hughes have played the right side at times, perhaps the Devils will move on from the antiquated notion that defensemen are incapable of playing on their off-side; instead playing their six best defensemen.

Watching Vatanen and Severson seeing tons of ice time the past two years based solely on the way they held the stick was paimful.

It's not antiquated at all, the Devils in 95 had no RHD who got significant time in the playoffs IIRC (Jason Smith might've played some games, one of McAlpine or Hulse was an RHD I think), and the only RHD on the 2000 and 2003 teams was Rafalski. This isn't because there was some grand theory that you played your 6 best guys, it's because the league was majority Canadian and Canadian D play top-hand strong, and that means most D are lefties. Even going into the 2010 playoffs, the Devils had 8 LHD. That just does not work anymore, hockey is too fast now, and you can't just jam the puck out of your zone when you face pressure on the boards. It's been proven that the majority of D struggle on their offside.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Even if you want to argue it is, where exactly did it hurt the Devils the last few years? It's not like they actually had better defensemen than Vatanen (pre-playoff injury) or Severson until Fitz took a bulldozer to the D in the last year and a half.

I'll forever loathe that franchise for the dirt they did in that series.

 

[MadDevil]

Is that a random comment about the NJ goaltending?

No, that would be a Jon Gillies ad for Depends.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Did we have two defenseman after Hamilton better than Severson?

After Hamilton went down, maybe not. But consistently putting him on the lineup when he continued doing the same things didn't give him much incentive to improve.

I'm no coach but have read enough to believe it's not antiquated and the system exists in just about every organization for good reason.

In Europe the overwhelming majority of players are lefthanded. Both Zaitsev and Misyul have played both sides.

 

[njdevils1982]

I know he’s bizarro but I still enjoy some Stan Fischer content.

Matt and the Maven was fun stuff.

Anyway, this is the Maven on Jack Hughes.

————

Bluelines: Why This is the Year of Superstardom for Jack Hughes

Stan Fischler gives his prediction for Jack Hughes, discusses a documentary on the Summit Series, continues his chat with Jay Feaster, shares thoughts on Jack Campbell, the Carolina Hurricanes, Mike Sullivan, and so much more.

thehockeynews.com

“I was there so I can confirm the following about slow starts for Hall of Famers.

1. Jean Beliveau: Arguably the finest center in NHL history, Le Gros Bill required more than three years of the big league game to finally reach full Cup-winning stardom in 1956.

2. Guy Lafleur: The heir apparent to Beliveau in Montreal, the Canadiens Flower failed to bloom in his first few years before finally turning on to Superstar Boulevard.

And so it will be with Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils. He has battled through the build-up-to-a-letdown seasons and is ready to take the same giant step over the moat and into the realm of greatness.”

i would love to hear stan's recollection of watching moses skating down the mountain with tablets of oxy

 

[Guttersniped]

Hischier talks Devils' playoff hopes in Q&A with NHL.com | NHL.com

Forward also discusses how Palat will help on and off ice, growth of Hughes

www.nhl.com

I can’t help but read this with Nico’s accent in my head

For more authenticity you can pepper in a dozen “it’s huge” throughout the interview.

You know the writer edited them out.

 

[My3Sons]

i would love to hear stan's recollection of watching moses skating down the mountain with tablets of oxy

 

[Jack Be Quick]

In Europe the overwhelming majority of players are lefthanded. Both Zaitsev and Misyul have played both sides.

Perhaps someday the NHL will be able to compete with the SHL and the KHL.

Someday.

 

[Xirik]

He has 1 more year on his KHL contract so not until that is up at minimum.

the KHL season ends February 26th. Their playoffs start March 1st and ends April 29th. So depending on how his team does there is a chance that he could get some late games in and god-willings... The playoffs.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Perhaps someday the NHL will be able to compete with the SHL and the KHL.

Someday.

Wasn't referring to the pro leagues.

Since the majority of players shoot the same way growing up there are going to be more talented lefthanded players.

Why play a less talented player?

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Wasn't referring to the pro leagues.

Since the majority of players shoot the same way growing up there are going to be more talented lefthanded players.

Why play a less talented player?

A) they're probably not left handed. I believe in most places in Canada and the more advanced programs in the US you're taught to shoot left if you're a righty.

B) it's why RHD are at such a premium. Same with lefties (pitchers) in baseball.

Just saying that I'm going to trust the collective opinion of management in the most elite league in the world.

 

[Triumph]

Wasn't referring to the pro leagues.

Since the majority of players shoot the same way growing up there are going to be more talented lefthanded players.

Why play a less talented player?

This isn't true for a couple reasons, one is that not all players learn the game the same way, I don't think 'top-hand strong' is intuitive (I certainly didn't learn that), second is that being right-handed confers an advantage that defensemen on the right side of the ice can make plays on their forehand, they can seal the boards much better at the blueline, etc.

 

[Nubmer6]

This isn't true for a couple reasons, one is that not all players learn the game the same way, I don't think 'top-hand strong' is intuitive (I certainly didn't learn that), second is that being right-handed confers an advantage that defensemen on the right side of the ice can make plays on their forehand, they can seal the boards much better at the blueline, etc.

"Top hand strong" is important as D. You want to use your strong hand to poke check.

To a much lesser degree, I have a theory that skating comes into it too. Right handed players usually turn more naturally to their left, which probably makes it more comfortable for them to play on the left side when they're developing at lower levels.

 

[Camille the Eel]

It’s interesting that almost all figure skaters and gymnasts (like above 90 percent) both turn and jump counterclockwise. That is to their left as they face when they start to turn.

A classical dance teacher actually analyzed it in the mid 2010s. (Oddly, most technically difficult dance turning was clockwise - alone among the disciplines analyzed).

Why Do Ballet Dancers Turn Clockwise? - Ballet Focus

Most ballet dancers turn clockwise while figure skaters and other athletes turn counter-clockwise. Why?

balletfocus.com

 

[billingtons ghost]

It’s interesting that almost all figure skaters and gymnasts (like above 90 percent) both turn and jump counterclockwise. That is to their left as they face when they start to turn.

A classical dance teacher actually analyzed it in the mid 2010s. (Oddly, most technically difficult dance turning was clockwise - alone among the disciplines analyzed).

Why Do Ballet Dancers Turn Clockwise? - Ballet Focus

Most ballet dancers turn clockwise while figure skaters and other athletes turn counter-clockwise. Why?

balletfocus.com

See, this is the kinda shit you learn on hockey message boards, along with bourbon suggestions and new binge watching titles.

It ain't just pointless goalie arguments and angst about ufa contracts. **** Quora, yo.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

It’s interesting that almost all figure skaters and gymnasts (like above 90 percent) both turn and jump counterclockwise. That is to their left as they face when they start to turn.

A classical dance teacher actually analyzed it in the mid 2010s. (Oddly, most technically difficult dance turning was clockwise - alone among the disciplines analyzed).

Why Do Ballet Dancers Turn Clockwise? - Ballet Focus

Most ballet dancers turn clockwise while figure skaters and other athletes turn counter-clockwise. Why?

balletfocus.com

similar to other freestyle winter sports (freestyle skiing, snowboarding, aerials, also skateboarding, wakeboarding etc.) to the point where spinning the other way is commonly recognized as more difficult and worth more points.

 

[MasterofGrond]

In the Southern Hemisphere they spin the other way

 

[Edmonton East]

It’s interesting that almost all figure skaters and gymnasts (like above 90 percent) both turn and jump counterclockwise. That is to their left as they face when they start to turn.

A classical dance teacher actually analyzed it in the mid 2010s. (Oddly, most technically difficult dance turning was clockwise - alone among the disciplines analyzed).

Why Do Ballet Dancers Turn Clockwise? - Ballet Focus

Most ballet dancers turn clockwise while figure skaters and other athletes turn counter-clockwise. Why?

balletfocus.com

I mean isn't that kinda common sense though? For most people, the dominant leg/foot is their right. So naturally when generating power (for the jump), most people are going to prefer to do so using their dominant leg.

 

[StevenToddIves]

likewise, I always consider something in a different way than I did before when I read your posts, which is definitely appreciated.

Re-reading what I actually wrote, I'd love to spend 2 weeks developing a model to track skaters by various possession metrics and reconcile for their quality of linemates, quality of competition and deployment, and spit it all into one number that weights how well a player maintains possession relative to expected outcomes to see if I'm out to lunch on my theories. I know this data exists out there in some forms, but it would be a fun exercise to have control over it. The biggest motivator is that I don't think enough emphasis is placed on things like the quality of the forwards that a D is on the ice with. We look a lot at quality of competition but not enough, in my opinion at least, at if a D pairing is being asked to cover for a crappy 4th line disproportionately often.

But I work for a software company rather than an NHL analytics department so I'm afraid that may have to wait for another day.

I think the foremost shortcoming of analytics used in all sports is they tend to slant towards the previously held biases of the people coming up with the analytics.

Possession is certainly an aspect of hockey, and many analytic models are wisely doing their best to measure it. But to say that hits and blocked shots are irrelevant and then to omit them from the analytic model is equivalently unwise.

I read an interesting study done towards the end of the season where the analyst separated goals scored off the rush vs. goals scored off the cycle. The largest discrepancy in the league in either direction was the New Jersey Devils, who were 3rd in the league scoring off the rush and 22nd in the league off the cycle. I think the reason this study did not receive much attention is because it questions a lot of the possession metrics being used by the analytic community. Simply put, if the Devils had a couple old school "power forwards", they would have scored more on deflections, won more down low battles and scored more rebound-type greasy goals.

The same arguments can be used when analyzing defensemen. A team can have 6 possession guys on the back end with no shot blocking acumen or physicality, and it might improve the overall possession metrics for that team. But they are going to allow a ton more goals off the cycle in the 40%-48% of the game where they don't have possession, so what's the point?

Again, I'm not arguing against being wary of possession or factoring in analytics, I'm just saying balance is a more important attribute for a winning hockey team than possession statistics taken alone. Simply put, a winning team needs different types of players to fill differing roles. The Devils are going to have three very good offensive defensemen for a very long time in Hughes, Nemec and Hamilton -- so it would be foolish to be overly coveting offense-first defensemen in the coming years, both in the draft and in the free agent market. The Devils need Siegenthaler-types who can balance their highly talented trio on the blueline, which is why I'm touting players like Okhotyuk for the 2022-23 roster and why I was touting defenders like Leddy and Barabosha both leading up to and after the 2022 draft. It's why I feel the John Marino for Ty Smith trade might be the singular most important factor in putting the Devils in the 2023 post-season conversation.

Again, I love your posts and the way you see the game and the team. Keep up the great work, and as always I look forward to reading all your thoughts.

 

[HersheyBob27]

I'm interesting in Dahlen to give him teo way deal. I didn't saw him in Nhl enough, but I watched his allsvenskan games. At least he could be a good addition for Comets.

He was a bust in north american. Smartly he signed to played on big ice in europe. Apparently he is afraid of his own shadow

 

[MachoDiablo]

I'm not as up on hockey stats as I am on baseball ones (very different sport to try and create metrics for, of course), but I think the conversation around them hits a similar hiccup that sometimes impacts baseball talks.

Namely, I think that advanced stats in baseball absolutely have the right idea in terms of emphasizing what's the most important aspects of success in the game, and the initial statistical revolution in the game was huge for very good reasons. For example, the initial things that really jumped out was how sabermetrics emphasized the importance of walks and on base percentage, downplayed the importance of raw RBI numbers (they're heavily reliant on the team surrounding you, so not a good metric of an individual player's ability), and made people reconsider the risks of using bunts and stolen base attempts due to the 27 outs available to you in a game being very precious and not usually worth giving up outside of some obvious situations.

That all said, some people internalized these so much that I think they lost sight of the fact that, yeah, stolen bases can be very useful, as long as you can maintain a steal success rate of about 80%; walks are great, but what if you're being "overly patient" and passing up pitches to hit too often?; and while RBIs are a weak stat for measuring individual player performance, is there not something to be said for a player having a good "RBI approach" when runners are on base, e.g. being focused on driving the ball, getting a sac fly, focusing on contact over selling out fully for power, etc.?

Basically, the advanced stats get at the heart of what you need to build a successful roster, but that doesn't mean the other stuff has no utility; it's just that old school thinkers would take the other stuff and play it up at the expense of the core essentials you need for success, which is not the way to go.

 

[Triumph]

I think the foremost shortcoming of analytics used in all sports is they tend to slant towards the previously held biases of the people coming up with the analytics.

This is not true. Yes, there has to be some level of test, when a new metric says Connor McDavid is great and Nicolas Deslauriers is bad, and someone we think is average is average, then it's probably doing okay, but looking at the game in a deeper way, trying to analyze what's going on, has created wildly counterintuitive results.

Possession is certainly an aspect of hockey, and many analytic models are wisely doing their best to measure it. But to say that hits and blocked shots are irrelevant and then to omit them from the analytic model is equivalently unwise.

They're not omitted. If you look at players who have lots of hits, they tend to be bad possession players. You could easily correlate those two things if you wanted to.

What is true is that generally in building a hockey team you'll find someone who likes to hit, and players who will block shots. The key is not letting players whose sole attributes are these things to escape your 4th line or 3rd pairing and you'll be okay.

I read an interesting study done towards the end of the season where the analyst separated goals scored off the rush vs. goals scored off the cycle. The largest discrepancy in the league in either direction was the New Jersey Devils, who were 3rd in the league scoring off the rush and 22nd in the league off the cycle. I think the reason this study did not receive much attention is because it questions a lot of the possession metrics being used by the analytic community. Simply put, if the Devils had a couple old school "power forwards", they would have scored more on deflections, won more down low battles and scored more rebound-type greasy goals.

It didn't receive much attention because it's very basic stuff. The Devils score a lot off the rush? I could've told you that from watching the games. Well, now I look at the number of goals the Devils scored overall, I know they scored a lot off the rush, and they didn't score that many goals, so I can easily infer that the Devils don't score much off zone time.

Could the Devils use players that can do these things? Absolutely, I don't think that was ever in dispute. I don't like the idea of 'old school' power forwards because it's a concept that never really existed in the first place, but absolutely they need players able to get to the net. I think they've done that with Palat and Haula and perhaps Zetterlund and the return of Miles Wood, as well. It's not perfect but it's about as good as a team can do in the offseason.

The same arguments can be used when analyzing defensemen. A team can have 6 possession guys on the back end with no shot blocking acumen or physicality, and it might improve the overall possession metrics for that team. But they are going to allow a ton more goals off the cycle in the 40%-48% of the game where they don't have possession, so what's the point?

This isn't how it works. There aren't 'possession guys', that's the thing you're missing. When players present good results, possession, 5v5 +/-, whatever you want to look at, it's now a question of how they attain those results. It isn't always by plays with the puck, I can assure you of that. Likewise with players with poor results, some of those players are good on the puck and awful off of it, or vice versa.

Again, I'm not arguing against being wary of possession or factoring in analytics, I'm just saying balance is a more important attribute for a winning hockey team than possession statistics taken alone. Simply put, a winning team needs different types of players to fill differing roles. The Devils are going to have three very good offensive defensemen for a very long time in Hughes, Nemec and Hamilton -- so it would be foolish to be overly coveting offense-first defensemen in the coming years, both in the draft and in the free agent market. The Devils need Siegenthaler-types who can balance their highly talented trio on the blueline, which is why I'm touting players like Okhotyuk for the 2022-23 roster and why I was touting defenders like Leddy and Barabosha both leading up to and after the 2022 draft. It's why I feel the John Marino for Ty Smith trade might be the singular most important factor in putting the Devils in the 2023 post-season conversation.

Everybody but the most blinkered of stat-watching fans will agree that you need balance on a hockey team. I do think the Devils 3rd pairing will struggle this year if it's Marino with Okhotiuk/Bahl/B. Smith, but they should at least be low-event, that'd be the hope, and maybe Marino's good enough that it won't matter much.

 

[Bleedred]

Blackwood allowed 3 bad goals in the season finale.

CHANGE MY MIND!

I’m just trying to get back into hockey season mode though. Or out of the doldrums of the off-season mode.

Funny how we’re WAY closer to the start of the season now than July when it’s already the off-season, but there’s still quite a bit going on.