Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[FooteBahl]

Fellow Devils fans! in two years we can finally fix one of the teams biggest plunders of the 90s.


Not Drafting Miroslav Satan!

Two years from now his son will be draft eligible where we can then draft him. Satan will finally come home.

I don’t care if he’s a 6th round talent…we need to take him with our first pick lol

 

[RangerDoggo]

Any idea when Athletic Dom is releasing his season preview team rankings? The season is so close, I can taste it.

Fellow Devils fans! in two years we can finally fix one of the teams biggest plunders of the 90s.


Not Drafting Miroslav Satan!

Two years from now his son will be draft eligible where we can then draft him. Satan will finally come home.

Hail Satan.

 

[Triumph]

I’d love to see what NHL teams actually use for analytics. For sure they are different than what we have access to . It would be very interesting to see what teams value what stats over others. And how much emphasis is put into basing decisions off of those stats .
Example - egghead stats person pushes fir player X in the lineup and put on line 3 with player Y and Z as stats show it “ should” be the most effective . How much weight dues that hold ? Or are stats used more do for just drafting and developing ? Or drafting and scouting when potentially trading for a player ?
What I don’t get , is when a player clearly is getting demolished by every stat metric , yet the team continues to play that player . Prime example - Ty Smith last season . From some stats the average joe had access to , he was one of the worst D men in the league ( with any sort of playing minutes ) . Why would he be trotted out there as much as he was then ? Stubbornness? Trying to see if he could fight his way through things and figure it out ? No other better options ?

I don't think they are using statistics to show what line combinations should be together. Statistics are typically more of a guardrail, they're used to tell you what's not working.

I don't think any statistics anywhere would tell you that Ty Smith was having a good season, but he was surprisingly good with PK Subban, they were even at 5v5 on a team that wasn't. When he played with anyone else, it was a disaster.

 

[Triumph]

One thing I haven't watched other teams close enough to notice is if they make D line changes where an RHD changes for an LHD and vice veras, I don't know why New Jersey did this under Nasreddine and now that we're 4+ months from the end of the season I'm not even sure that's what was happening, but it sure seemed like the Devils got caught out there too often with one guy who'd changed and one who hadn't and they'd be same-side D.

 

[Devils731]

One thing I haven't watched other teams close enough to notice is if they make D line changes where an RHD changes for an LHD and vice veras, I don't know why New Jersey did this under Nasreddine and now that we're 4+ months from the end of the season I'm not even sure that's what was happening, but it sure seemed like the Devils got caught out there too often with one guy who'd changed and one who hadn't and they'd be same-side D.

I believe other teams do this as well.

It’s to change your defense without totally abandoning the defensive ice.

So the LD comes off and RD comes on. New RD swaps sides with old RD. RD changes for LD. This way you always have a defenseman on each side of the ice if you’re worried the play may be coming back but you need a change.

Changing LD for LD, having new LD and old RD swap, having RD change for RD, and then have RD and LD swap ice sides again.

Swapping the LD for RD completes your staggered defensive pairing change in 1 less step and 1 less side swapping.

So it’s really a choice of what problem you think is worse if the pairing change is interrupted and how much chaos you think swapping sides causes. .

 

[NjDevsRR]

I can smell it in the air. It’s getting close.

 

[Goptor]

I can smell it in the air. It’s getting close.

View attachment 582070

But only 20 days until preseason opener

 

[Nubmer6]

Fellow Devils fans! in two years we can finally fix one of the teams biggest plunders of the 90s.


Not Drafting Miroslav Satan!

Two years from now his son will be draft eligible where we can then draft him. Satan will finally come home.

If the universe were a just place, Satan would have played for us, Martin St. Louis would have played for the Blues, Paul Ranger would have played for the Rags, and Sean Avery would have worked for the sanitation department.

 

[My3Sons]

They have access to a lot of data we don’t.

There are private companies like Sport Logiq, which is where Sal gets his fun stats for the TV broadcast. Teams also produce their own.

And there’s the new data from the NHL’s puck tracking technology, not sure what that is or if/when the public will get to see some of it.

Some public stat folks track stats themselves for macro stats, often for players and prospects in other leagues too. People look at a lot aspects of the game. I do dislike when people think analytics ignore the complexities of the game when it’s quite the opposite.

Analytics are going to play some role in every team, how and to what degree is the only question.

With Smith the team didn’t really have much choice, there wasn’t any veteran depth options. I don’t think playing prospects would have worked out better. Smith’s role got more sheltered. Once the playoffs were out of hand you might as well play him, the other choice would have been to send Ty down to the AHL.

I think that some analytics are better than others from the ones I've seen. Something like Corsi as a measure of possession seems overly simplified to me. The player tracking will probably show a bunch of stuff that will refine the stats used to evaluate whether players are playing well. Every once in a while the broadcast will share the puck control leader in the offensive zone for a period and each time I've seen it the leader was Jack Hughes. What surprised me was how low the number was. Maybe a minute or less.

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't think they are using statistics to show what line combinations should be together. Statistics are typically more of a guardrail, they're used to tell you what's not working.

I don't think any statistics anywhere would tell you that Ty Smith was having a good season, but he was surprisingly good with PK Subban, they were even at 5v5 on a team that wasn't. When he played with anyone else, it was a disaster.

Subban and Smith played sheltered minutes early on and in the last third of the season they were one of the only stable pairings. When they both played it was mostly together.

When Hamilton came back in late February he went briefly to Siegenthaler, to Graves, then a longer stint with Siegenthaler, and finally to Bahl when Sieg went out.

Siegenthaler only missed 1 game early on but missed the last 11, which brought in Bahl.

Severson went from Siegenthaler to Graves.

Obviously they played in other pairings at times but here’s the 5v5 ice time for defensive pairs in the last 27 games:

Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I'm nervous about the thought of Severson no longer being on the Devils.

Over the past 5-6 years, almost every defensemen that is paired with Severson seems to play their best hockey in those minutes spent with Damon.

There's a reason Severson averaged 2.5 whole minutes per game of ice time than the next defenseman on the team (Hamilton). He's that good of a player that makes everybody around him better.

If we're being honest, I'd rather have Severson at 6/7 years for ~7 million per season moving forward than Hamilton at 5 years for 9 million per season at the conclusion of this year. I hope Hamilton's play this upcoming season changes my mind on that though.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think that some analytics are better than others from the ones I've seen. Something like Corsi as a measure of possession seems overly simplified to me. The player tracking will probably show a bunch of stuff that will refine the stats used to evaluate whether players are playing well. Every once in a while the broadcast will share the puck control leader in the offensive zone for a period and each time I've seen it the leader was Jack Hughes. What surprised me was how low the number was. Maybe a minute or less.

If that broadcaster is Sal then he’s sharing Sports Logiq data that goes beyond some of what is usually discussed here because that company tracks it own data. (Some guys do track their own macro stats as well, for example JFresh uses the micro stats tracked by Corey Sznajder.)

The basic usefulness of Corsi and various XGoal models is that they do a way better job of predicting future offense production than past offensive production.

This is an article from 2017 discussing how Corsi was becoming less predictive, likely because teams adapted to what the analytics told them was getting their ass kicked. That’s the story of all analytics in sports.

As NHL embraces fancy stats, Corsi isn't as predictive as it once was | Sporting News Canada

www.sportingnews.com

Here’s a short article about expected goal models vs Corsi.



There are introductory articles on hockey analytics.

There are a papers on the internet discussing all sorts of interesting subjects related to hockey analytics. (Way more detailed than these articles.)

There are books on it.

If you want to get to the meat of what’s getting done then go out and discover that. You aren’t going to figure it out by thinking about what you know now and extrapolating personal theories on what it can or can’t do.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I'm nervous about the thought of Severson no longer being on the Devils.

Over the past 5-6 years, almost every defensemen that is paired with Severson seems to play their best hockey in those minutes spent with Damon.

There's a reason Severson averaged 2.5 whole minutes per game of ice time than the next defenseman on the team (Hamilton). He's that good of a player that makes everybody around him better.

If we're being honest, I'd rather have Severson at 6/7 years for ~7 million per season moving forward than Hamilton at 5 years for 9 million per season at the conclusion of this year. I hope Hamilton's play this upcoming season changes my mind on that though.

I love Severson, and I would like him to resign if there's a deal that makes sense for both sides, but I don't think I can agree with him making everyone around him better.

I haven't looked at the numbers but I'd imagine if people did look better when paired with Severson vs. without him, that it'd more so be due to the quality of those other defensemen being far worse, and just generally bad. If the choice is between Severson or Santini, Vatanen, Subban, Butcher, etc. I can see why guys look better with Severson.

 

[RangerDoggo]

I'm nervous about the thought of Severson no longer being on the Devils.

Over the past 5-6 years, almost every defensemen that is paired with Severson seems to play their best hockey in those minutes spent with Damon.

There's a reason Severson averaged 2.5 whole minutes per game of ice time than the next defenseman on the team (Hamilton). He's that good of a player that makes everybody around him better.

If we're being honest, I'd rather have Severson at 6/7 years for ~7 million per season moving forward than Hamilton at 5 years for 9 million per season at the conclusion of this year. I hope Hamilton's play this upcoming season changes my mind on that though.

There's a very good chance that there won't be room for Severson in the future, with long-term deals in place for Hamilton and Marino plus Nemec on the come-up. That's OK. He's good but not essential for us, especially not with whatever money he's surely going to command.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I love Severson, and I would like him to resign if there's a deal that makes sense for both sides, but I don't think I can agree with him making everyone around him better.

I haven't looked at the numbers but I'd imagine if people did look better when paired with Severson vs. without him, that it'd more so be due to the quality of those other defensemen being far worse, and just generally bad. If the choice is between Severson or Santini, Vatanen, Subban, Butcher, etc. I can see why guys look better with Severson.

That's a very fair point. Could certainly just be that our other RHD were so bad, that it made Damon look great.

But still, my point still stands that I'm curious to see how our defense core adjusts in 2023-24 season when Severson isn't here for the first time in what will be 9 seasons.

There's a very good chance that there won't be room for Severson in the future, with long-term deals in place for Hamilton and Marino plus Nemec on the come-up. That's OK. He's good but not essential for us, especially not with whatever money he's surely going to command.

Definitely. But in my mind, I feel as if it might be a better idea to try to ship out Hamilton after maybe the 4th year of his deal (so trade him when there is 3 years remaining) and retaining Severson. Which would mean Hamilton-Severson-Marino as the RHD for the next 3 seasons all making good money which isn't exactly the best way to build a team.

 

[Devs3cups]

I'm nervous about the thought of Severson no longer being on the Devils.

Over the past 5-6 years, almost every defensemen that is paired with Severson seems to play their best hockey in those minutes spent with Damon.

There's a reason Severson averaged 2.5 whole minutes per game of ice time than the next defenseman on the team (Hamilton). He's that good of a player that makes everybody around him better.

If we're being honest, I'd rather have Severson at 6/7 years for ~7 million per season moving forward than Hamilton at 5 years for 9 million per season at the conclusion of this year. I hope Hamilton's play this upcoming season changes my mind on that though.

Hamilton's season was cratered by 2 injuries + COVID. He looked great at the start of the year before his first injury. He's a better D-man than Severson imo, a legit first pairing, #1 D. I'd much rather have Hamilton regardless of his contract, but that's also because I believe he'll bounce back from those injuries. Last season was an outlier for him. I expect a 50-60 point season from him next year, especially with the PP improving.

 

[My3Sons]

If that broadcaster is Sal then he’s sharing Sports Logiq data that goes beyond some of what is usually discussed here because that company tracks it own data. (Some guys do track their own macro stats as well, for example JFresh uses the micro stats tracked by Corey Sznajder.)

The basic usefulness of Corsi and various XGoal models is that they do a way better job of predicting future offense production than past offensive production.

This is an article from 2017 discussing how Corsi was becoming less predictive, likely because teams adapted to what the analytics told them was getting their ass kicked. That’s the story of all analytics in sports.

As NHL embraces fancy stats, Corsi isn't as predictive as it once was | Sporting News Canada

www.sportingnews.com

Here’s a short article about expected goal models vs Corsi.



There are introductory articles on hockey analytics.

There are a papers on the internet discussing all sorts of interesting subjects related to hockey analytics. (Way more detailed than these articles.)

There are books on it.

If you want to get to the meat of what’s getting done then go out and discover that. You aren’t going to figure it out by thinking about what you know now and extrapolating personal theories on what it can or can’t do.

Thanks for sharing that article. There are always a few subjective elements to something predictive but over a large enough sample the analytics help. I’ve read enough from the alll about the jersey log to see how the numbers work. I will say that I think my favorite use of thr advanced stuff is to evaluate the run of play. That doesn’t rely on scoring but combines the shots and high danger chances which is minimally subjective compared to trying to divine whether a goalie wil make a good save. At least to me that makes sense. I don’t dismiss analytics but as I see it they require an eye test to verify. PDO is also a good one. I just think that training a computer to determine the outcome of a shot is tough. All I can ever get the computer to do is stop opening thr pod bay doors and maybe sing Daisy.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Hamilton's season was cratered by 2 injuries + COVID. He looked great at the start of the year before his first injury. He's a better D-man than Severson imo, a legit first pairing, #1 D. I'd much rather have Hamilton regardless of his contract, but that's also because I believe he'll bounce back from those injuries. Last season was an outlier for him. I expect a 50-60 point season from him next year, especially with the PP improving.

Completely agree with this. His play prior to the injury vs after the injury was 2 completely different hockey players.

Hamilton was an absolute stud for us in his first 30 games of the season. He had 21 points in those first 30 games - a 57 point pace.

 

[Devs3cups]

Completely agree with this. His play prior to the injury vs after the injury was 2 completely different hockey players.

Hamilton was an absolute stud for us in his first 30 games of the season. He had 21 points in those first 30 games - a 57 point pace.

And that's with a HORRID PP. I expect him to be in that range, maybe even more next year with, as I said, an improved PP with Brunette and natural player progression. Considering he stays healthy, I don't think 60-65 points is far fetched.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

They have the NHLPA Rookie Showcase going on down at the Capitals practice facility. Out of all of our prospects they sent Graeme Clarke.

 

[njdevil26]

I don't see how Severson is a Devil beyond this season.

Hamilton and Marino are on long term deals and Nemec will be on this team sooner than later.

 

[Guttersniped]

Also we’re stuck with Hamilton and we can’t really afford another big defensive contract with him.

Teams only allocate a certain % of their cap to defense and you want to keep it to a reasonable amount. You don’t want to take money away from forwards.

Hamilton = 9m
Marino = 4.4m
Siegenthaler = 3.4m
16.4m

You can look at Cap Friendly and see what teams are spending on defense, though it makes more sense to wait until everyone is cap compliant. It’s 20-25m right now for most.

I don’t think Severson works. Maybe Fitz and co do with the rising cap, but I’m doubtful. Evolving Hockey has the most likely deal at 6 years/ 6.7m.

We have two UFA defensemen to make decisions about with a truckload of prospects who aren’t here yet.

I’m actually not hugely concerned, Fitz has been pretty aggressive in addressing the defense. The Hamilton contract was always going to be a bear, but he also got two reasonable cost controlled deals to give the team a core.

 

[Ripshot 43]

I love Severson but unless they are planning on flipping Marino, he’s gone. Can’t pay all 3 while also paying Siegenthaler and Hughes. Ideally with Hamilton and Hughes as high end offensive guys we add another defensive first guy like Siegenthaler to either fit in as the 6th or 7th guy.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I love Severson but unless they are planning on flipping Marino, he’s gone. Can’t pay all 3 while also paying Siegenthaler and Hughes. Ideally with Hamilton and Hughes as high end offensive guys we add another defensive first guy like Siegenthaler to either fit in as the 6th or 7th guy.

I don't think its smart to make decisions based on the projection that both Hughes and Nemec are demanding (and deserving) big money contracts after their ELCs.

I'd rather plan on them NOT demanding big money after their ELCs, and if it happens to be that their play is THAT good that we need to pay them big money, isn't that a great problem to have?

I would hate to let a good player go for pennies on the dollar, because you're leaving a spot open for a future youngster to take (both in a roster spot and in terms of the salary cap). What happens if that young player is nowhere near as good as you were hoping?

 

[bossram]

Any idea when Athletic Dom is releasing his season preview team rankings? The season is so close, I can taste it.

I'm also excited to see them. He's releasing his fantasy projections this week, so I think the season previews would have to start soon after that considering the season is almost upon us.

That said, I could see him wanting to forego the season previews considering the amount of hate-comments he gets from butthurt fans.