Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Ripshot 43]

I don't think its smart to make decisions based on the projection that both Hughes and Nemec are demanding (and deserving) big money contracts after their ELCs.

I'd rather plan on them NOT demanding big money after their ELCs, and if it happens to be that their play is THAT good that we need to pay them big money, isn't that a great problem to have?

I would hate to let a good player go for pennies on the dollar, because you're leaving a spot open for a future youngster to take (both in a roster spot and in terms of the salary cap). What happens if that young player is nowhere near as good as you were hoping?

Can’t argue with your logic but I do use more projecting with my roster management than you would. I think the proper talent evaluating in the GM position will help keep you ahead of trading players away for pennies as well.

All in all the Severson discussion doesn’t involve Nemec or Hughes to me. It’s Severson or Marino. Either Severson is signed to an extension and Marino is shipped off at some point the next year or Severson is off the team. I don’t see how Hamilton, Severson and Marino is a thing beyond this one season (mainly because of Cap space and distribution).

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Can’t argue with your logic but I do use more projecting with my roster management than you would. I think the proper talent evaluating in the GM position will help keep you ahead of trading players away for pennies as well.

All in all the Severson discussion doesn’t involve Nemec or Hughes to me. It’s Severson or Marino. Either Severson is signed to an extension and Marino is shipped off at some point the next year or Severson is off the team. I don’t see how Hamilton, Severson and Marino is a thing beyond this one season (mainly because of Cap space and distribution).

This I 100% agree with - However to me I think the decision is actually between Hamilton and Severson, rather than Marino and Severson!

 

[Ripshot 43]

This I 100% agree with - However to me I think the decision is actually between Hamilton and Severson, rather than Marino and Severson!

I only don’t include Hamilton because he was a huge signing last year and not many teams would be interested in trading for a player with that high of a Cap hit (personally I have no problem with the player and am confident he will again provide what we want him to after fully recovering from his injuries).

 

[Bleedred]

I really don't see Dougie going anywhere within the next year with 5 years left on his deal.

Either we won't want to trade him and will just want to keep him (he is better than Severson) or he'll be bad enough that no one will wanna take on 5 more years left at a $9 million cap hit for him, unless we were to take back one of their bad contracts (like Bob from Florida lol) in exchange.

So basically, if Dougie is good enough to be an asset for us, we'll just end up keeping him. If he's bad enough that we don't want him anymore, I can't see him being in demand with as much term and as many dollars he has left on that deal.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I really don't see Dougie going anywhere within the next year with 5 years left on his deal.

Either we won't want to trade him and will just want to keep him (he is better than Severson) or he'll be bad enough that no one will wanna take on 5 more years left at a $9 million cap hit for him, unless we were to take back one of their bad contracts (like Bob from Florida lol) in exchange.

So basically, if Dougie is good enough to be an asset for us, we'll just end up keeping him. If he's bad enough that we don't want him anymore, I can't see him being in demand with as much term and as many dollars he has left on that deal.

After his July 1, 2025 signing bonus, depending on the kind of player he is at that time, that might be the best time to move him.

 

[Billdo]

This I 100% agree with - However to me I think the decision is actually between Hamilton and Severson, rather than Marino and Severson!

That sets a rather bad precedent for signing free agents if we trade a guy we just signed a year or two later unless said player asks to be moved.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

That sets a rather bad precedent for signing free agents if we trade a guy we just signed a year or two later unless said player asks to be moved.

Huh??

1. That happens literally ALL the time in sports.
2. Trading him 1-2 years after signing him would be trading him right now, or next summer. July 1 2025 is still 3 years away... Which would be 4 years after signing him to his contract. That would be spending 4 of his 7 years of the contract here. That would be the longest he's spent with any NHL team in his career.
3. I HIGHLY doubt in like 2026 any player would think to themselves, "Well New Jersey traded Hamilton 4 years after signing him so I don't want to sign there"

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Why are we talking about trading Hamilton when the season starts in like a month SMH. He was banned up last year and looked really.good before the injures. He isn't going anywhere and we aren't moving him. Not alot of teams would go crazy for him with that contract anyway unless there is a bit of retention. Regardless I have no desire to even entertain moving this guy, it would be raking a step backwards. Hamilton , Nemec , Marino as our RD next year will be the best we have had in a long time.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Why are we talking about trading Hamilton when the season starts in like a month SMH. He was banned up last year and looked really.good before the injures. He isn't going anywhere and we aren't moving him. Not alot of teams would go crazy for him with that contract anyway unless there is a bit of retention. Regardless I have no desire to even entertain moving this guy, it would be raking a step backwards. Hamilton , Nemec , Marino as our RD next year will be the best we have had in a long time.

Short answer - because its September 6th, what the hell else do we have to talk about?

Long answer - because is having a 32 year old defenseman making 9M a year with 3 years left of term a good idea when we hope the team will be competing for the Stanley Cup in that time? It's not often that defensemen are worth 9M a year in their age 32, 33, and 34 seasons.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Short answer - because its September 6th, what the hell else do we have to talk about?

Long answer - because is having a 32 year old defenseman making 9M a year with 3 years left of term a good idea when we hope the team will be competing for the Stanley Cup in that time? It's not often that defensemen are worth 9M a year in their age 32, 33, and 34 seasons.

That will be addressed if it's a problem at the time. I'd be more concerned hoping that we are a cup contender by then.

 

[glenwo2]

Short answer - because its September 6th, what the hell else do we have to talk about?

Long answer - because is having a 32 year old defenseman making 9M a year with 3 years left of term a good idea when we hope the team will be competing for the Stanley Cup in that time? It's not often that defensemen are worth 9M a year in their age 32, 33, and 34 seasons.

I can think of someone....

 

[Guttersniped]

Huh??

1. That happens literally ALL the time in sports.
2. Trading him 1-2 years after signing him would be trading him right now, or next summer. July 1 2025 is still 3 years away... Which would be 4 years after signing him to his contract. That would be spending 4 of his 7 years of the contract here. That would be the longest he's spent with any NHL team in his career.
3. I HIGHLY doubt in like 2026 any player would think to themselves, "Well New Jersey traded Hamilton 4 years after signing him so I don't want to sign there"

I can’t think of any big money examples in the NHL involving UFA signings. Not saying there aren’t any, I just can’t think of them.

Putting aside big RFA trades, which are easier to do since they’re younger players with no trade protection, I can think of a few examples but they were all players on second contracts with the same team.

The ones that come to mind are Kessel (to Pittsburgh in 2015), OEL (2021) and Brett Burns (2022).

Now those deals share a few similarities.

The GM’s that signed their second deal did not trade them because they were shitcanned:
Kessel (Nonis Oct 1, 2013 > Shanahan Jul 1, 2015)
OEL (Chayka Jul 1, 2018 > Armstrong Jul 23, 2021)
Burns (Wilson Nov 22, 2016 > Grier July 13, 2022)

Those GMs weren’t there because things took a turn for a worse which is why the big money player is willing to move.

Hamilton has a 10 Team Trade List in those last 3 years. Kessel had a 8 team No Trade List. OEL had a full NTC and Burns had a 3 team trade list.

The trades also all involved retained salary:

Kessel’s deal had 7 years left of a 8 year/8m deal which started 2014-15.
Toronto retained 15%, 1.2m until 2020-21.

OEL’s deal had 6 years left of a 8 year/8.25m deal which started in 2019-20.
Arizona retains 12%, 990k until 2026-27.

Burns’ deal has 3 years left of a 8 year/8m deal which started in 2017-18.
San Jose retains 34%, 2.72m until 2024-25.

So, yeah, I don’t see Fitz penciling in a future Dougie deal on purpose considering it typically signals that shit went wrong and we would need to retain salary to make it happen.

I don’t know what Fitz’s exact plan with the defense is, we’ll all find out a lot by the TDL, but it likely won’t involve dumping Hamilton. Not unless he’s forced to make an ugly move for cap reasons. He can’t just swap him out with Severson easy peasy.

 

[Gurglesons]

I honestly think you guys are going to want to be trading Marino after watching him for a year. He's a very aggravating player. Reportedly in the room too.

 

[MadDevil]

I honestly think you guys are going to want to be trading Marino after watching him for a year. He's a very aggravating player. Reportedly in the room too.

Marino could be a Norris candidate and would still get eviscerated by some posters here.

Plus we've lived with Severson and his WTF moments for years.

 

[Bcap88]

Nemec gonna make severson redundant and plus severson doesnt score enough to justify the contact he is about to get

 

[Guttersniped]

I honestly think you guys are going to want to be trading Marino after watching him for a year. He's a very aggravating player. Reportedly in the room too.

Maybe getting traded sent a message.

Marino makes 4.4m.

Columbus gave Gudbranson a 4 year/4m deal.

Detroit gave Chiarot a 4 year/4.75m deal (and he’s LHD).

St Louis gave Leddy a 4 year/4m deal (also LHD).

 

[Gurglesons]

Maybe getting traded sent a message.

Marino makes 4.4m.

Columbus gave Gudbranson a 4 year/4m deal.

Detroit gave Chiarot a 4 year/4.75m deal (and he’s LHD).

St Louis gave Leddy a 4 year/4m deal (also LHD).

Marino has been traded twice because of reported behind the scenes issues. I think the best thing that could happen with Marino is he plays with someone with size like Seigenthaler or Graves who balances out his game. His best time with us was when he was with Jack Johnson.

The Gudbranson deal is absurd, but I’d prefer those other two over Marino.

Marino is a fantastic D in the neutral zone. The issue is when he has the puck in the offensive zone or is trying to play defense below the circles. He’s absolutely awful at both.

 

[Bleedred]

Marino has been traded twice because of reported behind the scenes issues. I think the best thing that could happen with Marino is he plays with someone with size like Seigenthaler or Graves who balances out his game. His best time with us was when he was with Jack Johnson.

The Gudbranson deal is absurd, but I’d prefer those other two over Marino.

Marino is a fantastic D in the neutral zone. The issue is when he has the puck in the offensive zone or is trying to play defense below the circles. He’s absolutely awful at both.

I don't even know if Leddy is good anymore or not, but Chiarot sucks.

Overrated (by front offices and management people more than fans, which is why he was overpriced at the deadline and now overpriced in UFA) and not at all good. I don't know why this guy is so popular. Andrew Brunette learned real fast that he wasn't any good and didn't overplay him at all, after his GM made a fool of himself by overpaying for him at the deadline.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I honestly think you guys are going to want to be trading Marino after watching him for a year. He's a very aggravating player. Reportedly in the room too.

I highly doubt it. He is exactly what we need. I don't care if he ever puts up any offense.

 

[Gurglesons]

I highly doubt it. He is exactly what we need. I don't care if he ever puts up any offense.

I saw this take a lot. Marino is not a shutdown D. JFresh may be peddling that, but it simply isn’t true.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I honestly think you guys are going to want to be trading Marino after watching him for a year. He's a very aggravating player. Reportedly in the room too.

 

[Triumph]

I saw this take a lot. Marino is not a shutdown D. JFresh may be peddling that, but it simply isn’t true.

It's much more true than the idea that Marino was traded twice because he's a problem. He was traded once because he was't going to sign with Edmonton, do you think they traded him because they didn't want him?

Marino doesn't score goals or hit people, always going to be fans who don't like a player like that.

 

[Billdo]

Huh??

1. That happens literally ALL the time in sports.
2. Trading him 1-2 years after signing him would be trading him right now, or next summer. July 1 2025 is still 3 years away... Which would be 4 years after signing him to his contract. That would be spending 4 of his 7 years of the contract here. That would be the longest he's spent with any NHL team in his career.
3. I HIGHLY doubt in like 2026 any player would think to themselves, "Well New Jersey traded Hamilton 4 years after signing him so I don't want to sign there"

I misread the post, I thought you were advocating trading him like now.

 

[My3Sons]

Marino has been traded twice because of reported behind the scenes issues. I think the best thing that could happen with Marino is he plays with someone with size like Seigenthaler or Graves who balances out his game. His best time with us was when he was with Jack Johnson.

The Gudbranson deal is absurd, but I’d prefer those other two over Marino.

Marino is a fantastic D in the neutral zone. The issue is when he has the puck in the offensive zone or is trying to play defense below the circles. He’s absolutely awful at both.

I saw a video on YouTube by a guy who does regular podcasts for PIT and he said Marino was a know it all who did not handle coaching all that well. He did go to Harvard which tells me something but is he bristling stop being asked to be something he isn’t or is he disruptive to the team? It’s always hard to say what the truth of this is. Marino doesn’t have to be a tough guy in NJ. I think the team is hoping he’s on the third pair in another two years anyway.

I can think of someone....

Look, give it up. Lovejoy isn’t coming back.

 

[Gurglesons]

I saw a video on YouTube by a guy who does regular podcasts for PIT and he said Marino was a know it all who did not handle coaching all that well. He did go to Harvard which tells me something but is he bristling stop being asked to be something he isn’t or is he disruptive to the team? It’s always hard to say what the truth of this is. Marino doesn’t have to be a tough guy in NJ. I think the team is hoping he’s on the third pair in another two years anyway.


Look, give it up. Lovejoy isn’t coming back.

PIT is kind of notorious for rubbing players in the dirt after they leave, but the one media guy who brought that up is Jesse Marshall who is a big stat head.

It's much more true than the idea that Marino was traded twice because he's a problem. He was traded once because he was't going to sign with Edmonton, do you think they traded him because they didn't want him?

Marino doesn't score goals or hit people, always going to be fans who don't like a player like that.

I think my biggest issue with him is the net front play. This is a player who got walked twice in consecutive playoffs in the corner because he got too cute.

I dunno. I feel like Ty Smith and him are a lot closer than the defensive analytical stats reflect. I don’t think Smith is going to be much more than a 2nd Powerplay low minute # 5 for us, but I think Marino being a # 3 was just not happening here. Jersey has the luxury of Hughes and some other excellent cheap D talent coming up though.