Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

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My3Sons

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Given how much this board likes to recycle arguments I'm sure it'll be something we've fought about numerous times already:laugh:
Have we ever talked about the goal song in the arena or whether the team’s primary problem is the bad team defense or the goaltending or Hischier?
 

Mr Bojanglez

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I wonder what this board will fight about next after Bratt signs his one year deal? It seems we always disagree about something. I've already mentally prepared myself that Bratt is gone. If he signs long term great but I'm with the mindset pray for the best but prepare for the worst.

holtz is on deck
 

Bleedred

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And again, you just make excuses for the goaltending. Blackwood was f***ing awful when he was hurt, and the Gillies/Hammond set of goalies were also awful, and Schmid had no business at all in the NHL. Daws didn't either but he was by far the best of the bunch.

Blackwood hurt did not have 'ups'. Yes, he got a rocking chair shutout against Philadelphia, great, a game where the Devils allowed 0 high danger chances. He was abysmal otherwise and Bleed has the receipts to prove it.
His last game was f***ing just atrocious. The season finale against Detroit was actually one of his worst games of the year. I think the one in Boston in January and then the one against Arizona (was he shut down right after that game?) at home had MULTIPLE SOFTIES.

The one early in the Boston game looked like something out of 1983 on a scarecrow looking standup goalie that went 5-hole.

I didn't think his first game back against Ottawa was that bad. He allowed 5 goals on like 32 shots (or something) and I thought one goal was bad on the power play for Ottawa.

But the Detroit game was f***ing awful. If you read the GDT you'll see I kept saying everytime Blackwood's save percentage went above .900% for the game that he was ready to allow another goal and it sadly just kept happening. We also kept coming back to tie it until they eventually scored the fourth goal with not a whole lot of regulation left.



Goal 1 - Just not a good goal. This is a shot that should be hitting most goalies and DOES HIT MOST GOALIES in the NHL. I don't wanna hear about a screen. If you're getting screened by this then you need to shred the goalie a bit if he's getting scored on frequently by these. That screen is nothing.

Goal 2 - Here's another ''Oh, he was screened!''. Yeah. I think he was screened too, I just don't think he should have been. His awareness on this shot from exit 11 was a joke. And then he finally flinches after he hears it clank off the post and it gets in behind him. Joke goal. I'm sure we'll also hear about how great Seider is and how he scores on almost all of these shots and not many goalies are stopping that one and certainly no goalie playing behind this terrible Devils D.

Goal 3 - Looks like a bad goal, but I didn't nail him on this one as Dougie Hamilton does take him out of the play a little bit and it's petty for me to expect him to recover in time to make that save.

Goal 4 - This was the weakest of the night. Weak shot through the 5-hole. If you watched this game live in real time you'll remember that this was originally not called a goal as they had thought that Dougie Hamilton had swept it away from going across the goal line just in the nick of time. After they went to a TV timeout they came back and it was under review and it did in fact cross the line. PATHETIC GOAL.

''Oh! It's just ONE GAME!''.

Oh, I can go over some more if I really have to. Should I try the Arizona and Boston games and dissect those goals next? And they're not the only ones either. They just come off the top of my head and stick out as games where he was particularly HORRID.

Even going back to the first game he played in the regular season against LA. He gave a WEAK trickler through the 7-hole late in regulation that would have been the game winner, but I think we either tied it with the goalie pulled or right before we would have pulled him and then the Kings wound up winning it in OT.

Even the game I saw him play in Florida in November, he gave up two WEAK ones that game and got sent to the bench for Bernier halfway through regulation.

And in the game against Tampa that we won? He gave up two leakers, but he did make up for it in that game and we won.
 

Guttersniped

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I don't think you can argue with a straight face that 'lopping out the last game as if it didn't happen' isn't cheating. He's a frigging .902 SV% goalie, as if that means anything in reality. There simply isn't enough time in the day to explain how small sample sets make SV% analysis a waste of time. You know better. We don't have enough data to know if Bernier would've been significantly better, or if he ultimately would've gotten lit up like the rest... because he got frigging lit up like the rest and hurt in the same game trying to turn himself inside out bc of our team.



Oh, one guy's subjective eye test "stat" is what you lean on these days? Excellent choice. You are really so much more convincing now.

I'm not 'making excuses'. You said yourself he started the season well. What the hell is that if not an up?
I give up. Yes, just look at the unadjusted save % for every year and don’t ask any questions. That’s the best way to interpret a goalie’s year.

When a guy starts 8 games/plays 10 it’s best to just average them up.

I actually I just look at all the games, because it’s really easy with so few. It’s just easier to make the point by taking out the game where he gives up 6 goals in 40 minutes before they take him behind the barn and put him out of his misery.

I’m trying to explain what happened to the guy. Why does the average save % for the year describe the season the best for you?

He started the season struggling with a hip problem, he was never fully healthy, it just got worse.

Bernier didn’t have some sort of fluky accident just that game, it was that game where he got significantly worse so they had to shut him down for surgery.

He was scratched in the pre-season and in the games 3-5 in the regular season. There was no healthy Bernier, but he did decline.

I don’t know how you could have watched him early in the pre-season/season, and then compared that to what we saw in his last few games, and not seen the physical decline.

And I typically break down seasons, to see where the highs and lows are. To understand what happened. It’s particularly helpful with injury.

This is like debating Hammond‘s numbers instead of looking at the few games he actually played in Montreal.

It’s not like SV% for the year has some magical power to tell us something that looking at individual games doesn’t. There are also other stats available for goalies.

Finally, I think our team did a great disservice to our two starters by playing when they were injured so much. So downplaying the injury leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

They had a broken Bernier back-up an injured Blackwood for two games before he went on the IR. It was real ugly.
 
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Bleedred

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If I REALLY have to give a seminar on Gillies, look no further than 3 of his last 4 starts of the season. They were actually 3 starts in a row before his last game which wasn't that bad. He did allow 3 goals in like 5 minutes to Carolina in that game, but they weren't really bad.

Both the Tampa and Chicago games, which I think both were in February. Then the Edmonton game on the road. I think that was either in March or early April, I forget. If you remember, he was pretty much only used in relief after that when Daws got pulled, until Daws was sent back and he got that one more start against Carolina a week or two before the season ended. Ruff was rightfully throwing him under the bus in the post game too.

And Hammond? That Buffalo game, which featured a goal from the other blue line (or was it center ice? Still AWFUL) as well as a couple other bad ones. I think his game against Montreal was pretty horrible? And his game against Florida was a natural soft goal hat trick (actually 4 in a row) in the 3rd period and overtime.
 
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Bleedred

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Hammond and Gillies were both so bad, but I think Hammond (in a more limited number of games played) was even worse. His game against Vegas was better than any game Gillies ever played here, but his games against Florida and Montreal might have been worse than any game Gillies played here and his game against Buffalo was about on par with an average Gillies game.

Hammond and Gillies were so bad that they made me wanna go back in time to 2020 and not buyout Cory Schneider. And I wanted to buyout Cory Schneider by about the fall of 2018.

Like, I swear they were almost put here to show us that things REALLY could be WORSE than Cory Schneider's last several seasons here.
 

Bleedred

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I don't think you can argue with a straight face that 'lopping out the last game as if it didn't happen' isn't cheating. He's a frigging .902 SV% goalie, as if that means anything in reality. There simply isn't enough time in the day to explain how small sample sets make SV% analysis a waste of time.
I don't know, Blackwood's save percentage over his last 55 games is a dreadful .893%. That's not a small sample set at all.

Rumor has it that 50 year old Marty Brodeur was considering a comeback to see if he could somehow try and do better than that.

And by the way, I know what you were posting here wasn't about Blackwood.
 

Poppy Whoa Sonnet

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I wonder what this board will fight about next after Bratt signs his one year deal? It seems we always disagree about something. I've already mentally prepared myself that Bratt is gone. If he signs long term great but I'm with the mindset pray for the best but prepare for the worst.
I'm personally looking forward to when the team is good, and we get "sure they are good but can they win in the postseason?" discussions.
 

SKNJD9

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Guttersniped

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Everyone's talking past each other. Brady Tkachuk's deal runs through 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years. An 8 year deal for Bratt would run through 2 RFA years and 6 UFA years, so if you think Bratt and Tkachuk are equal players, Bratt should be paid more on his deal than Tkachuk on his.

Now I think nobody thinks Bratt and Tkachuk are equal players, either you think Tkachuk is better because he's a traditional power forward in a game where that is becoming increasingly rare, or you think Bratt is better because the numbers clearly say he is, but at least understand that you're comparing players at two different places in their careers.

I'm not saying I wouldn't take Bratt over Brady on that contract. What I'm saying is based on what they have done in their career's to this point, Bratt just simply has not done enough to deserve an 8x8.2 contract.

also FYI, when you type _x_ referring to a contract, it's always yearsXaav. not aavXyears

I don’t care about this part of the debate but I’m reading backwards and this is bugging me too much.

Brady turned down a 8 year/8m deal and eventually signed a 7 year/8.2m deal.

If he only wanted an extra 200k with his 8 years they would have signed him sooner than Oct 14th. The Sens chose to get only 7 years to keep the AAV down.

The rumor was, and I have no I idea if it’s really true but I do enjoy it because I don’t like the other Tkachuks, that Brady was ready to sign an 8 year/8m deal because he’s a team guy goofball.

His family however jumped in got him to negotiate harder and the new demands threw the Sens for a loop. But they had an AAV in mind and they roughly stuck to it.
 

guitarguyvic

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I can't keep up....what the heck is going on with Bratt? Do we have any actual scoops or just speculation?
 

Bleedred

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Jfresh talking Marty. Not a whole lot because there's not much data for earlier in his career

I’ve argued that might have been the best year of his career.

His .920% in 77 games that year is arguably more impressive than his .922% in 78 games the year before.

One thing I argued heavily for was that he had 12 shutouts in 06-07 with a .922%, but only had 4 shutouts in 07-08 and yet still a .920%.

On one hand 12 shutouts in a year is extremely impressive and was a career high for him, but it also inflated his save percentage a little bit by racking up all those shutouts. He still had a .920% in 07-08 and yet that was a down year in shutout collecting for him, as he averaged almost 6 shutouts a year in his career and closer to 7 when you take out his 4 game cup of coffee in 91-92, the two lockout shortened seasons he played in, the one injury shortened season in 08-09 and the Blues season where he played only 7 games.
 

OlfactoryHughes

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I can't keep up....what the heck is going on with Bratt? Do we have any actual scoops or just speculation?
Only actual news we heard is Fitz made an offer weeks and weeks ago and never heard back.

Since then Friedman tweeted something about talks on a long term deal are going nowhere, but admits he’s speculating.

Then we just found out, Bratt is asking arbitrator for 6.something mil and fitz has him at 4.something.

That’s it.

Too me it looks like fitz has Bratt backed into a corner, and he can either take a longer term deal with whatever AAV fitz wants, or he can play for a year and risk it all in hopes of getting a better contract next year. Clocks ticking!

Arbitration is Wednesday.
 

Jersey Fan 12

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Just read that Bratt's camp filed for $6.5m.. if that's the case, why is this taking so long? Pay the man!
Google "Skinner, Jeff".

Except Skinner had four 30 goal seasons before he received an outrageous contract.

Like Jesper he has no playoff points in his career.
 
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