Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

[PKs Broken Stick]

So we get the news on Wed?

 

[Guttersniped]

I see 4 new pages and think something happened. Silly me.

The bleak loss of hope feels new. So that’s nice.

 

[youryeah]

So we get the news on Wed?

for better or worse, yep

 

[glenwo2]

So we get the news on Wed?

We might as well operate on that assumption.

That way if there is an announcement earlier than that, we will be surprised.

 

[billingtons ghost]

He wouldn’t play the next game because his hip wouldn’t allow him to play hockey though? Because injuries are real things.

But going back in time and erasing a game he played in IS a real thing?

Vanacek isn’t that good but he was literally the best we could do in a horrifically bleak goalie market.

And here you are, somehow trying to gloat, before the season starts, about how not good he might be for us.

I agree, and I'm much happier with him than the others you listed. I prob shouldn't have written what I did there. I was trying more to say that I expect he's going to be in the same boat as Blackwood is, and there'll be ups and downs rather than a huge difference maker.

Yeah, Yeah, we have the worst team defense ever in history. And your example is a defensive pair made up of two guys not on the team really proves it.
.

I literally never said such a thing, but yeah yeah, let's always paraphrase everything to every extreme bc it's a message board so that the next 19 clowns send the historical data on the worst team defensesv ever and I have to write five more posts explaining how I never said such a thing.

I said they are young, make mistakes, and the way in which they breakdown lead to difficult reads for a goalie. I also wrote that those two guys being replaced give me cause for tremendous optimism. If contract-year Severson achieves relatively low xBoneheadedness, then our backend might really give the goalie everything we need, if you add a year of maturity to the fwds and Haula and Palat.

 

[Guttersniped]

what is he better at? I will concede goal scoring. What other aspects of hockey?

Partying with fans for his bro! Pretty obvious.

 

[MadDevil]

He really looks like his dad (in his young days obviously) in that last one.

 

[Bleedred]

I’m not sure is Tkachuk is generally overrated (and that’s I word I often use, especially when it comes to goalies) but there is a small percentage of people that kind of overrate him.

 

[Triumph]

I agree, and I'm much happier with him than the others you listed. I prob shouldn't have written what I did there. I was trying more to say that I expect he's going to be in the same boat as Blackwood is, and there'll be ups and downs rather than a huge difference maker.

This is the point, though. Vanacek just having ups and downs will be a huge difference maker because the Devils goalies over the last 2 years have almost exclusively had downs. Blackwood has started the season well and then fallen apart, and his replacements have been awful. An average goalie will steal games, and the Devils just haven't had that, they've had some stretches of competent goalie play but very few games stolen and a lot of games lost for them.

 

[Patrik26]

You guys need to chill the f*** out. Make your arguments without the petty attacks.

Keyboard warriors and wannabe GMs are a marriage made in heaven.

 

[MauDevils]

So we get the news on Wed?

Depends what news you're after. It goes to a hearing on Wednesday so if he's not signed by then it's not good.

I believe they have 48 hours after the hearing to decide on the amount, so it won't be wrapped up until Friday.

 

[HersheyBob27]

I believe ZBC is mistaking you for Amerisuomi Kiekko (I think that's what that poster's name was).

He was the one who wanted Bratt exposed while extolling the virtues of Nathan Bastian and McLeod.

Thank you my friend

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Thinking about the Bratt contract situation again, i've come to terms that I am comfortable in Fitzy's approach.

I would of offered Jesper Bratt an 8 year, $7m per season contract. But if Bratt is not willing to accept those terms, maybe it is better for both parties to take a one year arbitration deal at $5.2m and re-visit in 12 months.

For NJ, it gives them more cap flexibility this season. And in 12 months time they will be in a better position to offer Bratt a "better" deal with Johnsson, Tatar and potentially Graves and Severson contracts off their books.
It will also give NJ another 12 months to assess Bratt's play. If he puts together another PPG season, then they would be probably more comfortable in offerring a long term contract and perhaps increase the AAV to around $8m (if that was Bratt's asking price for a long term deal).

If Bratt regresses to only a 40-50 point player. Then they know that perhaps Bratt isn't worth a $7m-$8m per season long term contract and they can adjust down accordingly. It also gives Fitzy more time to work out a trade if they know Bratt doesn't want to sign in NJ long term.

 

[billingtons ghost]

This is the point, though. Vanacek just having ups and downs will be a huge difference maker because the Devils goalies over the last 2 years have almost exclusively had downs. Blackwood has started the season well and then fallen apart, and his replacements have been awful. An average goalie will steal games, and the Devils just haven't had that, they've had some stretches of competent goalie play but very few games stolen and a lot of games lost for them.

And I think you are just blinded by what the stats tell you. I don't think Blackwood was much if at all below average even when hurt and what you said there is exactly the case - he had ups until we busted his confidence in the players around him to make a play, and then his game fell apart. All of the other garbage we put in the pipes was AHL material, but we made it look like they should never play goalie again in any beer league. Vanacek would've faired no different last year.

You're right though - the fact that we have a legit second goalie behind Blackwood to turn to when things get rough should make a huge difference to this club.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Thinking about the Bratt contract situation again, i've come to terms that I am comfortable in Fitzy's approach.

I would of offered Jesper Bratt an 8 year, $7m per season contract. But if Bratt is not willing to accept those terms, maybe it is better for both parties to take a one year arbitration deal at $5.2m and re-visit in 12 months.

For NJ, it gives them more cap flexibility this season. And in 12 months time they will be in a better position to offer Bratt a "better" deal with Johnsson, Tatar and potentially Graves and Severson contracts off their books.
It will also give NJ another 12 months to assess Bratt's play. If he puts together another PPG season, then they would be probably more comfortable in offerring a long term contract and perhaps increase the AAV to around $8m (if that was Bratt's asking price for a long term deal).

If Bratt regresses to only a 40-50 point player. Then they know that perhaps Bratt isn't worth a $7m-$8m per season long term contract and they can adjust down accordingly. It also gives Fitzy more time to work out a trade if they know Bratt doesn't want to sign in NJ long term.

^This is pretty much all that needs be said. I think arbitration is never a good sign for a player sticking with a team. I saw someone post that of the last 27 NHL players going to arbitration in the recent past, 21 of them were on different teams within two years of their hearing. I think Fitz did the right thing, tho.

I'd personally hate that with Bratt - but Severson/Bratt could bring alot back at the deadline.

I'm kinda interested to see how it goes with Wood, too - do we know what the team submitted? Coming off that injury you wonder if the arbiter takes into account the potential he was flashing the year before?

 

[Better Call Sal]

Every time I see Hershey Bob’s name, my mind just always goes to Cheddar Bob from 8 Mile.

No reason other than the name Bob.

Carry on.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Or Tyce Thompson multi-year deal.

And Miles.

 

[Triumph]

And I think you are just blinded by what the stats tell you. I don't think Blackwood was much if at all below average even when hurt and what you said there is exactly the case - he had ups until we busted his confidence in the players around him to make a play, and then his game fell apart. All of the other garbage we put in the pipes was AHL material, but we made it look like they should never play goalie again in any beer league. Vanacek would've faired no different last year.

You're right though - the fact that we have a legit second goalie behind Blackwood to turn to when things get rough should make a huge difference to this club.

And again, you just make excuses for the goaltending. Blackwood was f***ing awful when he was hurt, and the Gillies/Hammond set of goalies were also awful, and Schmid had no business at all in the NHL. Daws didn't either but he was by far the best of the bunch.

Blackwood hurt did not have 'ups'. Yes, he got a rocking chair shutout against Philadelphia, great, a game where the Devils allowed 0 high danger chances. He was abysmal otherwise and Bleed has the receipts to prove it.

 

[Guttersniped]

But going back in time and erasing a game he played in IS a real thing?


I agree, and I'm much happier with him than the others you listed. I prob shouldn't have written what I did there. I was trying more to say that I expect he's going to be in the same boat as Blackwood is, and there'll be ups and downs rather than a huge difference maker.

I literally never said such a thing, but yeah yeah, let's always paraphrase everything to every extreme bc it's a message board so that the next 19 clowns send the historical data on the worst team defensesv ever and I have to write five more posts explaining how I never said such a thing

Do you think I’m trying to “cheat” with statistics here?

He was shut down because he was too injured to play. I take out that game to show that he was actually playing pretty well up until then despite having hip problems since the preseason. Also he looked cooked vs. both Nashville and Winnipeg, he had real trouble moving in the net.

So making up imaginary starts after his actual one isn’t the same, because you aren’t trying make a point.

He only started 8 games and played in 10, his stats are going to be pretty extreme either way. If you, or anyone else wants to ignore the health of these guys, and so married to the SV% of all the games that you want to reject my point so be it. I do have a point.

If you look at his starts after he came back on game 6 they began to use him more and more sparingly. They were hoping that would help and it didn’t.

Blackwood came off the IR and his first start was 11/9 (game 9). It wasn’t like he was healthy either and he began to struggle with the work load and his injury problems.

10/15 game 1
10/19 game 2
*Not on IR, but scratched for game 3, 4 & 5*
10/30 game 6
11/2 game 8
11/6 game 10
11/13 game 13
[11/14: game 14 sub for Blackwood, w/ MBW on concussion protocol]
[11/18: game 15 sub for Blackwood]
11/26 game 18
12/3 game 22
[12/6 game 23 While Bernier not healthy enough to play, he’s still the back-up.]
[12/8 game 24 Same]
*Dec 10 put on IR*

Daws got injured in the AHL on December 8th.
We traded for Gillies on December 15th.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Do you think I’m trying to “cheat” with statistics here?

I don't think you can argue with a straight face that 'lopping out the last game as if it didn't happen' isn't cheating. He's a frigging .902 SV% goalie, as if that means anything in reality. There simply isn't enough time in the day to explain how small sample sets make SV% analysis a waste of time. You know better. We don't have enough data to know if Bernier would've been significantly better, or if he ultimately would've gotten lit up like the rest... because he got frigging lit up like the rest and hurt in the same game trying to turn himself inside out bc of our team.

And again, you just make excuses for the goaltending. Blackwood was f***ing awful when he was hurt, and the Gillies/Hammond set of goalies were also awful, and Schmid had no business at all in the NHL. Daws didn't either but he was by far the best of the bunch.

Blackwood hurt did not have 'ups'. Yes, he got a rocking chair shutout against Philadelphia, great, a game where the Devils allowed 0 high danger chances. He was abysmal otherwise and Bleed has the receipts to prove it.

Oh, one guy's subjective eye test "stat" is what you lean on these days? Excellent choice. You are really so much more convincing now.

I'm not 'making excuses'. You said yourself he started the season well. What the hell is that if not an up?

 

[McDuffz88]

I wonder what this board will fight about next after Bratt signs his one year deal? It seems we always disagree about something. I've already mentally prepared myself that Bratt is gone. If he signs long term great but I'm with the mindset pray for the best but prepare for the worst.

 

[BurntToast]

Wow.

Bratt is a great player, but you don’t want to ruin the cap balance to pay one guy. Unfortunately for Bratt, wing is also easier to replace.

If Fitz caves and Bratt gets a short term deal, you might have to come to terms with him leaving in his prime. Are you going to pay Bratt 8-10, with Hughes/Nico’s contracts expiring shortly after? Or Mercer, L.Hughes, Nemec, Holtz coming off their ELC’s?

The Devils only have two contract options. Sign Bratt to 1 and do this again next season or 6-8 year deal. If not the unicorn is probably gone.

It has nothing to do with Bratt the player.

 

[Triumph]

I don't think you can argue with a straight face that 'lopping out the last game as if it didn't happen' isn't cheating. He's a frigging .902 SV% goalie, as if that means anything in reality. There simply isn't enough time in the day to explain how small sample sets make SV% analysis a waste of time. You know better. We don't have enough data to know if Bernier would've been significantly better, or if he ultimately would've gotten lit up like the rest... because he got frigging lit up like the rest and hurt in the same game trying to turn himself inside out bc of our team.

lol 'because of the team'. Bernier was hurt before he even played a game. This idea that the defense of the Devils injures the goalies is one of my favorites.

Oh, one guy's subjective eye test "stat" is what you lean on these days? Excellent choice. You are really so much more convincing now.

I'm not 'making excuses'. You said yourself he started the season well. What the hell is that if not an up?

You claimed that Blackwood was 'average even when he was hurt', that is an absolutely ridiculous claim. He was abysmal.

Also you don't believe in any stats, so one guy's subjective eye test beats the hell out of whatever you purport to believe in. Today it's SV% for some reason, but tomorrow SV% will be fake and something else will be real.

 

[MadDevil]

I wonder what this board will fight about next after Bratt signs his one year deal? It seems we always disagree about something. I've already mentally prepared myself that Bratt is gone. If he signs long term great but I'm with the mindset pray for the best but prepare for the worst.

Given how much this board likes to recycle arguments I'm sure it'll be something we've fought about numerous times already

 

[Billdo]

When the old New Jersey Nets first came into the NBA they had a point guard named Mike Newlin who averaged over 30 points per game.

And the Nets usually lost.

Paying Jesper Bratt at the equivalent of some of the other top forwards mentioned would be like paying Newlin a premium.

Let another team be foolish enough to do that.

I wonder what this board will fight about next after Bratt signs his one year deal? It seems we always disagree about something. I've already mentally prepared myself that Bratt is gone. If he signs long term great but I'm with the mindset pray for the best but prepare for the worst.

Severson or Jack. Probably Jack since Severson is mostly likely on his way out although I bet Hamilton gets to be part of this convo too.

Given how much this board likes to recycle arguments I'm sure it'll be something we've fought about numerous times already

It'll be Jack or Dougie getting shit on.