Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

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Eggtimer

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There is no shot it’s even close to that - I am not defending Ty Smith’s season for the record, just the disparity in the impact stated.
It’s not only direct impact but how others slot in the pairings . How much his partners have to change their game to play with him . I don’t know shit about advanced stats nor where to look up and see how much if a negative impact Smith had but I’m guessing it is not pretty
 

StevenToddIves

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No, the difference between Ty Smith and those players was not 5-8 wins - c’mon now.
Smith almost singlehandedly lost several games with a litany of huge defensive blunders. He was almost an automatic win in one-on-one battles and down low. He was unable to cover opposing forwards in front of the net. Opposing coaches were falling all over themselves trying to get their top scorers out against him. He was, quite simply, a liability this year.

I'm not trying to dump on Smith, but the facts are clear. After a very impressive rookie year -- and I can't pretend to know why -- he showed up this year slower both physically and mentally. I think he's a good kid, and I hope he can get his career back on track next year. Just hopefully, it's for some other team, because the Devils cannot afford such a liability on their blueline.
 

Triumph

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Smith almost singlehandedly lost several games with a litany of huge defensive blunders. He was almost an automatic win in one-on-one battles and down low. He was unable to cover opposing forwards in front of the net. Opposing coaches were falling all over themselves trying to get their top scorers out against him. He was, quite simply, a liability this year.

I'm not trying to dump on Smith, but the facts are clear. After a very impressive rookie year -- and I can't pretend to know why -- he showed up this year slower both physically and mentally. I think he's a good kid, and I hope he can get his career back on track next year. Just hopefully, it's for some other team, because the Devils cannot afford such a liability on their blueline.

That doesn't address the very basic fact that Ty Smith, while bad, was not worth -5 wins this year, or, ludicrously, -8 wins. He was probably something on the order of -1 win above replacement, maybe -2, I don't have access to GAR for an estimate, but -5 is not possible.

Most players who are bad like this also cost their teams games in the same way.
 

StevenToddIves

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The Devils are not swimming in cap room. It's not 2020 anymore. Yes, they're going into next year with nearly $24 million in cap room for next season, but they owe Bratt a lot of money, a lot of guys on the team will need raises next season (Sharangovich, Siegenthaler among them), and they want to add a goalie as well as probably a top forward. Let's say Bratt gets $6.5, Wood gets 2.8, this top forward gets $6M and the goalie gets $4M. Well now you are looking at $7M in cap room. Maybe you can get rid of one or Tatar or Johnsson and clear up some money, but you aren't likely to get rid of both, and you're likely to have to retain money or buy them out, and buying either one out is a disaster.

Plus they already have guys like Lyubushkin in the minors with Bahl and Okhotiuk. Yeah, they need a 3RD, and I like Lyubushkin, but they don't have $3.5M for an RHD, and they certainly don't have it for 4 years.
Or: get rid of the wasted money on Johnsson and Tatar and get $8 million. Either or both could go to Arizona to get them over the cap floor. If not? Send some rebuilding team a B-level prospect or two to take the final years of their contracts.

Trading Zacha -- who does have trade value -- creates another $2.5 million in cap room. Trading Kuokkanen would free up another nearly $2 million. The Devils could replace these 4 Fs with Zetterlund, Foote, Holtz and an interior UFA F like Nichushkin, Niederreiter or Marchment and go into 2022-23 both better and cheaper than this year's version.

The Devils have no RHD anywhere in their system remotely like Lyubushkin except for (hopefully) McCarthy, who is two years (at least) away from competing for an NHL gig. RD is a different position than LD.

The only way the Devils are acquiring a "top forward" north of $6 million is if Tkachuk becomes available out of Calgary, which would seem unlikely. NJ is not getting involved in the sweepstakes for Forsberg or Gaudreau. Maybe they sign a Nichushkin or Niederreiter in the $5 million range.

After the 2022-23 season, the Devils are certainly shedding the Benier contract, and maybe Graves.

As for next year, they have plenty of cap room for all of their main needs of: a 1A goalie, a 3-RD, and an interior/power F -- and then still have room left over if they want to upgrade at 3C.
 
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StevenToddIves

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That doesn't address the very basic fact that Ty Smith, while bad, was not worth -5 wins this year, or, ludicrously, -8 wins. He was probably something on the order of -1 win above replacement, maybe -2, I don't have access to GAR for an estimate, but -5 is not possible.

Most players who are bad like this also cost their teams games in the same way.
GAR is a made up number and means nothing. I will gladly pay attention to analytics which actually track something like zone entries or exits or situational scoring or creation of scoring chances, but "some dude's algorithm for how many wins this player is worth based on statistics he personally finds important" is just ludicrous.

Fact is, aside from the goaltending, Smith was the weakest link on a team with multiple weak links. Opposing coaches fell all over themselves getting their scorers out against him. He couldn't win battles down low, couldn't clear creases, made several visible errors with the puck almost every game, was easy to defeat one-on-one and didn't produce much offense. You had to overwork the other LD if you were shorthanded, because Smith is not capable of PK play. This is not a forward you can bury on the 4th line. This was a player in an extremely important position for 17+ minutes per game. He really negatively affected the team this year... a lot.

Fortunately, all of the Devils problems are very fixable for next year, and Fitzgerald's encouraging comments give me great faith we'll go into next year with stronger goaltending, more physicality and interior play, and an actually functional 3rd line and 3rd D pairing. Smith will be gone, and hopefully so will the 3rd line nightmare of Johnsson/Zacha/Tatar.
 

Triumph

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Or: get rid of the wasted money on Johnsson and Tatar and get $8 million. Either or both could go to Arizona to get them over the cap floor. If not? Send some rebuilding team a B-level prospect or two to take the final years of their contracts.

Yeah, you just magically get rid of the guys you don't want. Johnsson can't go to Arizona if his NTC says he can't, and Tatar is being paid more than his cap hit - for the Devils to move Tatar, they'd have to eat the $2 million of his bonus. Not sure they are willing to do that.

Trading Zacha -- who does have trade value -- creates another $2.5 million in cap room. Trading Kuokkanen would free up another nearly $2 million. The Devils could replace these 4 Fs with Zetterlund, Foote, Holtz and an interior UFA F like Nichushkin, Niederreiter or Marchment and go into 2022-23 both better and cheaper than this year's version.

Trading Zacha creates no cap room at all because he is not signed for next year, and I assume he will not play here next season. I did not account for him in my calculations.

But yes, you're right, if Tom Fitzgerald just works miracles and gets rid of the 3 guys you don't like and manages to sign a top UFA, he may also have room to wildly overpay Lyubushkin.

Remember, the premise of my argument was that the Devils don't have a lot of cap room, and you're not helping yourself by saying 'Well, sure they do, they just send some prospects with Tatar or Johnsson to other teams'.

The Devils have no RHD anywhere in their system remotely like Lyubushkin except for (hopefully) McCarthy, who is two years (at least) away from competing for an NHL gig. RD is a different position than LD.

I'm aware of that, but the point is that Lyubushkin is exclusively a 3rd pairing D, so if you were thinking about pairing him with a 3LD, you wouldn't want to pair him with Bahl or Okhotiuk. You'd want to pair him with someone who can move the puck for him. Likewise, if you were trying to break Bahl or Okhotiuk into the league, you'd want for them to do it on the 3rd pairing.

The only way the Devils are acquiring a "top forward" north of $6 million is if Tkachuk becomes available out of Calgary, which would seem unlikely. NJ is not getting involved in the sweepstakes for Forsberg or Gaudreau. Maybe they sign a Nichushkin or Niederreiter in the $5 million range.

After the 2022-23 season, the Devils are certainly shedding the Benier contract, and maybe Graves.

They're not really shedding either of these contracts because they will need to sign players at comparable rates to fill those gaps. Maybe, maybe not Graves because of Luke Hughes, but almost certainly Bernier (and that will happen this offseason).

I don't think the Devils have any interest in Gaudreau but there are non-UFA forwards potentially available as well. If they want to make a big trade for a forward, they should be keeping space open for that, not jamming it up with a 3rd pair D.

As for next year, they have plenty of cap room for all of their main needs of: a 1A goalie, a 3-RD, and an interior/power F -- and then still have room left over if they want to upgrade at 3C.

They don't, but they sure do if you believe in the fiction of just sending out guys like Kuokkanen, Tatar, or Johnsson into a league that has very little cap room. Johnsson's the one guy who I think can move without any inducement, but it depends a lot on how his NTC is structured and whether teams are willing to pay his bonus.
 

Guttersniped

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Replace ‘Ruff’ with ‘Fitz and his analytics team’ and I’d agree with that first sentence. But given Recchi’s track record before he got here, he had to go regardless. It’s pretty freaking rare when you get a crowd chanting fire the assistant and not Fire Ruff
I have no idea why you think “Fitz and his analytics team” runs the power play. I don’t even understand how that would work.

Fitz specifically said he hired Recchi to improve the power play when he hired him, which makes sense since he was the PP coach. Ruff’s “we are all Spartacus” bit is because he wasn’t going to publicly throw Recchi under the bus by name.

Ruff has some imput as the head coach. But the guy who runs the power play is the guy who runs the power play.

NHL.com has articles called System Analysis where they interview coaches.

This is one with Michel Therrien right before he started what turned out to be his very brief stint as Vigneault’s offensive AC in Philly starting in 2019-20.

(The article also discusses the relationship between the staff and how they knew each other, so people who keep discussing Ruff and his role picking his staff can learn about that too.)

One of Therrien's primary responsibilities on the staff will be to coach the power play. This is an area that requires a reboot, as the club almost inexplicably finished at just 17.1 percent (tied for 21st in the NHL least season) after finishing in the 20 percent vicinity (19.5 or above, with a 23.4 percent high-water mark in 2014-15) in five of the previous seasons. The Flyers' 2018-19 power play numbers were their lowest since 2010-11.

"I have my own vision on the power play. We've already talked about it with AV. We need to raise the standard. My responsibility to have the confidence to have success. I'll talk to the players and get their vision, too," Therrien said.

Last season, the Flyers tried to get the stalled power play going via a wide array of tweaks; some subtle, some major with shifts in both personnel and alignment. One major change was to move all lefthanders to the left side and all righthanders to the right, which included relocating Giroux from his longtime "office" on the left half-boards over the right side and Jakub Voracek from his customary spot of moving up and down the right side, the point down to the bottom of the circle.

“Different teams have different power play systems. You can have success with everyone on their natural side or some guys on their off-side; it depends. That's something we will discuss in more detail as we have our meetings and get ready for camp. In general, I think if players are comfortable and confident, that's how you should go," Therrien said.

"One thing for me with the power play, I believe in being aggressive around the net. Get pucks and bodies to the net. Everywhere I've coached, that's been important in our success. There are different ways to do that with how you set up and move the puck, but you want the pucks in that [high-danger] area."

The Flyers power play issues last season had nothing to do with "too much predictability." Former assistant coach Kris Knoblauch, in conjunction with then-associate head coach Scott Gordon tried many different things to spark the man advantage apart from trying alignment switch-ups.

Generally last season, the Flyers (like the majority of teams in today's NHL) featured four forwards and one defenseman (most commonly Shayne Gostisbehere) on their top power play unit. However, for a little while, the team even experimented with a five-forward power play. On the second unit, the Flyers sometimes went with four forwards and one defenseman (most commonly Ivan Provorov) in an umbrella formation similar to the first unit and sometimes a more old-school arrangement with two defensemen (Provorov and Travis Sanheim) at the points.

What can Flyers fans expect from a Therrien-coached power play?

"I think, as long as you have a defenseman who can do it, it's usually good these days to have one defenseman and four forwards on the units. Most likely, we will have that on both units but we will see. Gostisbehere has been good at that most of his career. You need to have two good units. We have other defensemen who can do it, beyond Gostisbehere. Provorov and Sanheim have potential to do it. Matt Niskanen has played some power play over the years, too. So we have options and competition," Therrien said.

As a head coach, Therrien established a reputation for being a hard-pushing type with players within the hockey realm but a fun-loving sort in his time away from the ice. He said that there are adjustments to make from being a head coach to an assistant but these are primarily in terms of performing specific responsibilities and addressing matters with players. The personalities themselves have to be genuine, regardless of someone's role.

FYI: The Flyer’s PP improved a bit in 2019-20, it was 14th (20.8%). Then in 2020-21 it was 18th (19.16%).

The last off-season’s big changes included moving two of their big PP contributors, Gostisbehere and Voracek (the latter moved hilariously in part because he couldn’t stand playing for AV anymore because he found the coach to be too much of an asshole).

Their PP cartoonishly imploded this season when the best they could to was Yandle as a replacement. It was 32nd (12.55%), with 25 PPGF (which ties the Coyotes) and they had a +19 PP GD (which is only slightly worse than ours but they gave up 3 less shorties).

It drives me crazy when people talk about the power play coach getting “scapegoated” when the history of the power play is this:

2019-20 (69 GP)
PP%: 17.95% (21st/31; NHL avg 20.03%)
Net PP%: 13.7% (26th)
42 PP GF; 0.61 PPGF/G (4 teams tied for 13th)
10 SHGA; 0.14 SHGA/GP (2 teams tied for 3rd)
+32 PP Goal Differential; 0.46 PP GD/GP (3 teams tied for 19th)
PP Opportunities 234; 3.39 PPO/GP (3rd)

2020-21 (56 GP)
PP%: 14.17% (28th/31; NHL avg 19.78%)
Net PP%: 11% (29th)
22 PPGF; 0.39 PPGF/GP (2 teams tied for 27th)
5 SHGA; 0.09 SHGA/GP (4 teams tied for 8th)
+17 PP Goal Differential; 0.30 PP GD/GP (28th)
PP Opportunities 155; 2.77 PPO/GP (4 teams tied for 20th)

2021-22 (82 GP)
PP%: 15.56% (28th/32; NHL avg 20.61%)
Net PP%: 9.3% (30th)
35 PPGF; 0.43 PPGF/GP (28th)
14 SHGA; 0.17 SHGA/GP (1st)
+21 PP Goal Differential; 0.26 PPGD/GP (31st)
PP Opportunities 225; 2.74 PPO/GP (23rd)

System Analysis: Therrien on Forwards and Power Play
 
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My3Sons

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No we don’t (as in we do have knowledge).
It’s typically done by the GM. The owners may influence it but usually it’s the GN that leads the hiring process. If there’s already a head coach in place they may be part of the process and decision like Fitz has been suggesting. But, the GM is the one actually hiring them. That’s one of the biggest parts of a GM’s job. Hiring/firing coaches and other staff.

But Mark Recchi was very clearly hired by Fitz ands it’s very clear he was hired as a powerplay coach and mentor.
They worked together in Pittsburg so they had a connection.
And you can read the article from when the Devils hired him and it’s very clear what his role would be.
The exit meeting between Fitz and Recchi just leaked. I think Fitz had just told Recchi the PP was terrible with him running it.

 

My3Sons

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I really like him. This is brand of defensemen is definitely in Russia’s wheelhouse and Lybushkin played huge numbers at very early age in the KHL. This is Lybushkin’s impact on a more functional Coyotes team in 2019-20.

View attachment 541786

I would go after him in free agency if he somehow makes it to market but the Leafs would be idiots to let that happen. (So they won’t.)

I actually use him as comparable in terms of TOI & age in the KHL when looking at our guys and other young defensemen. Him, Ottawa’s Zub, and Columbus’ Gavrikov. (In the context of what defensemen they have on their KHL team.)
How does Mukhamadullin compare?
 

Guttersniped

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How does Mukhamadullin compare?
If you mean by playing style they are definitely different and Muk’s a quirky player.

Mukhamadullin’s ice time is harder to judge because he’s a junior player. KHL teams get to add two junior players to the game day rosters, literally have to extra guys playing, and they don’t count against the salary cap either.

That’s why you very often get fans on the prospect boards whining when their 19-20 year old prospect is on a KHL team getting a couple of minutes of TOI a game.

Mukhamadullin ended up playing 15:19 per game, which is great for a young player. But his team is very different from one like Zaitsev’s, which had obvious top pairing guys playing 20+ minutes.

On Muk’s team, the best defenseman, Phillip Larsson, had 17:32 TOI overall per game. The three other with more than Muk had 16:18, 16:10 and 15:49. They had a defense by committee and played 7-8 defensemen a game.

A problem for me is the KHL site I have access to doesn’t list special teams ice time. Muk clearly got a ton of PP time, all 3 of his goals were PP goals and no other defense had one. So I don’t know how much 5v5 ice time he got.

I lost my notes, if I remember correctly he started on the 3rd pair and then moved up relatively quickly to the top 4. He played more when Larsson was out, and other guys being out affected his ice time in other ways. His team’s defense was older and had very little offense beyond Larsson though.

His KHL team also presumably wants him back for next season a whole hell of a lot because he still qualifies as the freebie junior player for one more season.
 
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nugg

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I've made compilations like this before, but I find it instructive to know why the Devils are in 'an eight year rebuild' as many like to say. I'll probably keep doing this even if the Devils get out of this cycle just to see how things progress. This is an examination of where everything the Devils potentially have in 2022-23 as of right now came from.

ASSET TREE FOR DEVILS

1989: |Mukhamadullin, N. Foote|
2002: +Graves+*

2004: (2022 4th round pick)
2008: |[Kuokkanen], (Daws)|
2009: (Zetterlund)
2010: (Schmid)
2011: |Mercer, Siegenthaler, Bahl|, (Mukhamadullin), [N. Foote]
2012: Severson
2013: Wood
2014: nothing
2015: Zacha, Blackwood
2016: M. McLeod, =Bastian=, [Johnsson], [Graves]*, Bratt
2017: Hischier, J. Boqvist, Zetterlund, Walsh
2018: Smith, Schmid, Sharangovich
2019: J. Hughes, Okhotiuk, Thompson
2020: Holtz, Mercer, Daws

UFAs signed: Bernier {2006}, Tatar {2009}, Hamilton {2011}

LEGEND

( ) - player selected in this draft was traded for the draft pick used to select this player
[ ] - player selected in this draft was traded for this player
| | - player selected in this draft was traded for other assets which were than traded at least once for the assets that became these players
= = - player selected in this draft was re-acquired via waivers
+ + - player whose draft year this was signed as a UDFA and involved in a trade for a current asset
* - player selected in this draft/signed as UDFA was part of a trade for a current asset

Not pictured: Jaromir Jagr was traded for two draft picks, both of which were traded for Kyle Palmieri, who was traded with Zajac for a 2021 1st and 2022 4th, which became Chase Stillman and ?. Ben Lovejoy was traded for the pick that became Graeme Clarke, Marcus Johansson, acquired for a 2nd from the Marc Savard trade and a 3rd round pick acquired from the Leafs in compensation for Lou Lamoriello's hiring as GM, was traded for the picks that became Nikita Okhotiuk and Ethan Edwards.
W O W... Was it from assets from the Bill Guerin trade? That's a pretty long, 31 year (Coleman was traded in 2020) draft/trade tree! I know they got the pick that they drafted Coleman in a trade, but can't remember who for. What about the now 20 year old tree, was it Greene? I recently read about the epic tree from the Gretzky trade. If I recall correctly, it still lingers, or fizzled out recently.

It’s the fact that Lybushkin is a RHD with Bahl and Okhotiuk and Shakir are all LHD . Asking a rookie to play in his off side is asking a lot
If we have to, Smith played on the right side for most of his time in junior. I'm not sure that's the plan, but I guess it could be the last resort.
 

LeedsMonster

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The steps Nico, Jack, and Bratt have taken definitely helped Ruff out in keeping his job. Plus the goaltending being outside his control.
And Sharangovich. I was very impressed in the improvement of his all around game. Especially his willingness to go to dirty areas and keep plays alive. I also think he's the most underrated passer on the team. Now, I'd like to see him hit the weights a little this offseason and start driving the net more consistently
 

glenwo2

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Not true. Seems like he just wasn’t as good defensively but was quite a bit better offensively at least according to this model

But the guy in the tweet was right. I don't recall Bratt on any PK this season, tbh.

That would explain the lack of anything there in the model.

He's never going to be a defensive stalwart but he plays solid "D" for a forward which is all you can ask for.
 

Triumph

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W O W... Was it from assets from the Bill Guerin trade? That's a pretty long, 31 year (Coleman was traded in 2020) draft/trade tree! I know they got the pick that they drafted Coleman in a trade, but can't remember who for. What about the now 20 year old tree, was it Greene? I recently read about the epic tree from the Gretzky trade. If I recall correctly, it still lingers, or fizzled out recently.

Yeah, it's Guerin -> Arnott -> Langenbrunner -> pick for Coleman -> Mukhamadullin and Nolan Foote. Feels like that's where it might end but who knows. And yeah, Greene was first draft-eligible in 2002 but wasn't signed by the Devils until 2006.

It would surprise me if the Gretzky trade tree were still going but who knows, this one's much smaller in scope and is still chugging along.
 
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Call Me Al

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that’s a wild trade tree but i wouldn’t speculate it ending there. who knows if they turn into nhl players, run out their contracts and get swapped for picks in a trade deadline, or get thrown in on a trade to bring back bigger pieces. totally plausible if not likely that with two pieces remaining from that it will keep going past one of them at least
 

Captain3rdLine

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But the guy in the tweet was right. I don't recall Bratt on any PK this season, tbh.

That would explain the lack of anything there in the model.

He's never going to be a defensive stalwart but he plays solid "D" for a forward which is all you can ask for.
No he didn’t play PK but his PK number whatever it is or even if it’s non existent doesn’t actually affect his overall defensive number like you or the guy in the tweet suggested. Even if he played a ton on the pk and was great, his overall defense number wouldn’t be higher. They are separate. Its weird because the way the graphic looks you would think it does affect it.

And while you’re right that he was solid and doesn’t need to be a defensive stalwart he kind of was in past seasons based on this model and some others. So he sacrificed a bit of defence but improved his offence and drastically improved his production. I’ll take that.
 
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Guttersniped

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Who cares? People get fired every day. One of them was possibly the longest tenured assistant coach for the NHL team in franchise history. The other was absolutely horrendous at what he was assigned to do and did a terribly miserable job. Because he was so great of a player he's entitled to a longer leash to f*** up as a coach? It doesn't work like that. Did it ruffle feathers when Pittsburgh let him go?

I wonder if anybody had their feathers ruffled when Mike Yeo was let go the other day? If they had such a problem with it then they can hire them now. Problem solved.
This is the 2nd time Recchi was chucked overboard after only two years while the HC kept his job. Maybe it’s him?

Sorry if people can’t handle the guy directly in charge of the PP taking flak for over seeing a garbage PP. (Twice and those were the only two times he ever ran one in the NHL.)
 
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Guttersniped

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I’m going to go ahead and not feel sorry for Mark Recchi. He can dab his tears with his three Stanley Cup rings, his Hall of Fame accolades and whatever they made his hair out of.

CAC75CD0-7C58-43E8-A4BE-F000892C2F12.jpeg


Nasreddine will easily get another coaching job this off-season.
 
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