Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[JimEIV]

Agreed, but he definitely likes to start fights and slice and dice data until he can find something to antagonize posters with and gets a kick out of sharing it, under the pretext of being some truth teller in the face of childish optimism. Any attempt to introduce context to the data is brushed off as being irrelevant and well how can you ignore the data?

Gets old.

There is some truth to what you say... maybe truth is not the right word for what I mean.

I definitely have problems with a lot of the "data"..

Rates in general are used in such bullshit way. Player x had a point per game over 25 games....

The implication is if that player plays 82 healthy games he's an 80 point player....never mind he's never scored over 60 points or hasn't had a fully healthy season in in 4 years...why aren't you adhering to the data damnit!

It's nonsensical... rates are often nothing more than than a rosey scenario opportunity to introduce a little hope for the future...to me the rate is largely irrelevant when you start getting more long term concrete evidence.

When you go literally years of 55 point pace and think something magical is going in the future it's a bit illogical in my opinion.

 

[Bleedred]

I don't know that John f***ing Gillies isn't better than Alain f***ing Chevrier? I guess it's f***ing hard to judge cross eras?

Chevrier's .873% in 86-87 was better than Gillies .885% in 21-22.

Chevrier had a goals saved against average of -11.9 in 58 games played that year, while Gillies had a goals saved against average of -11.5 in just 19 games played. Chevrier had a -13.8 goals saved against average in 45 games (.868%) in 87-88.

Now you can look at this two different ways. That with how many games Chevrier played in those two seasons he did more damage to his team than Gillies did only playing 19 games, but if Gillies played more games I really can't see him having performed any better than he had in the 19 games he did get, considering he seemed to get worse as the season progressed, up until his last game which was actually arguably his best as a Devil, but he went from looking like he was gonna more than possibly get his first career NHL shutout to allowing 3 goals in just 5-6 minutes.

Chevrier's 37 games of -23.3 and .850% in 85-86 was worse than Gillies 21-22 though.

Overall Chevrier's Devils career was -46.9 in 140 games and Gillies Devils career is over after just 19 games with a -11.5.

The goals saved against average stat is pretty good as it shows you how a goalie performed over different eras where save percentages are nowhere near the same. Basically what it means is that for instance in 86-87 on that number of shots faced, Chevrier allowed 11.9 more goals than a league average goalie would have allowed facing that same number of shots.

I would still say in my lifetime (I was alive for Chevrier, but my memory of him on the Devils is just non-existent. I can recall a few bad blowouts in the Chevrier years and he might have been in net for them) the two worst I've seen with a minimum of 10 games played in a year are Gillies and Louis Domingue just a few years ago.

Hammond was even worse than Gillies, but he only played 7 games here to Gillies 19. Hammond's game against Vegas was better than any game Gillies ever had here, but I feel like at least 4 of his 7 games here were at least as bad as some of Gillies worst hits here and some were even worse than that.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I Really would just like to know what Nico would have had to have done by now to be considered "good" in some people's eyes.

Most draft projections at the time had him topping out as a 60-70 point 2-way center....which is pretty much exactly what he has become (and is still improving)? What gives? Do people think that all 1st overall picks need to be 100 point players by the time they're 22-23? That just isn't realistic by any means.

 

[Buggsy]

There is some truth to what you say... maybe truth is not the right word for what I mean.

I definitely have problems with a lot of the "data"..

Rates in general are used in such bullshit way. Player x had a point per game over 25 games....

The implication is if that player plays 82 healthy games he's an 80 point player....never mind he's never scored over 60 points or hasn't had a fully healthy season in in 4 years...why aren't you adhering to the data damnit!

It's nonsensical... rates are often nothing more than than a rosey scenario opportunity to introduce a little hope for the future...to me the rate is largely irrelevant when you start getting more long term concrete evidence.

When you go literally years of 55 point pace and think something magical is going in the future it's a bit illogical in my opinion.

The pace goes both ways. Hischier played 21 gamss last year and had 11 points. Thats well below his ppg in the other 3 seasons.

He had 60 points last year and was on pace for 70. That's pretty good, one might say above average. Be happy with it.

 

[glenwo2]

Is the draft here yet? lol.

You're complaining that Mercer lost his center position when the teams best offensive player came back? Mercer was moved to wing because he took over Hughes role. He never had Hischiers role.

Mercer is going to be a really good player for the Devils.

You have still made no argument as to why it would be better to trade Nico so Mercer can play 2c. You believe that his trade value is better than his on ice impact?

If Nico is average, what are you trading him for that makes the team better?

What happens if Jack or Mercer gets hurt? Boqvist as 2C? Or are we keeping Zacha around as insurance?

I agree that Mercer has better hands than Nico. However I think Nico had a better shot, is better at faceoffs, is better along the boards and is better defensively.


Also just because it's fun to watch highlights.

You know...what Nico's vid tells me is that it's soo damn fun watching him with Bratt.

 

[Triumph]

There is some truth to what you say... maybe truth is not the right word for what I mean.

I definitely have problems with a lot of the "data"..

Rates in general are used in such bullshit way. Player x had a point per game over 25 games....

The implication is if that player plays 82 healthy games he's an 80 point player....never mind he's never scored over 60 points or hasn't had a fully healthy season in in 4 years...why aren't you adhering to the data damnit!

It's nonsensical... rates are often nothing more than than a rosey scenario opportunity to introduce a little hope for the future...to me the rate is largely irrelevant when you start getting more long term concrete evidence.

When you go literally years of 55 point pace and think something magical is going in the future it's a bit illogical in my opinion.

The guy you want to trade Nico for had a jump at age 26. So he can magically get better but Nico can't. That's part of the reason why data snooping that Nico was a point a game player from February on or whatever - he was getting lucky - is less egregious than it normally is. He's also probably getting better too.

I Really would just like to know what Nico would have had to have done by now to in some people's eyes.

Most draft projections at the time had him topping out as a 60-70 point 2-way center....which is pretty much exactly what he has become (and is still improving)? What gives? Do people think that all 1st overall picks need to be 100 point players by the time they're 22-23? That just isn't realistic by any means.

He has to go back and not have his face broken or his leg broken and also stop the worldwide pandemic, not have Taylor Hall come back shitty from his knee injury, there's a lot of stuff he could've done differently.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

2nd overall for PLD?

Sign me up.

He's not my first option (Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Pastrnak in that order are my first 3 options) but I'd rather trade the pick for PLD than use the pick.

 

[JimEIV]

The guy you want to trade Nico for had a jump at age 26. So he can magically get better but Nico can't. That's part of the reason why data snooping that Nico was a point a game player from February on or whatever - he was getting lucky - is less egregious than it normally is. He's also probably getting better too.



He has to go back and not have his face broken or his leg broken and also stop the worldwide pandemic, not have Taylor Hall come back shitty from his knee injury, there's a lot of stuff he could've done differently.

You could have just said not miss 25% of his games over the last 4 years.

Let's not make believe that that is not significant during these years. It has become part of who that player is now.

 

[Guttersniped]

It seems this post should be directed at any of the numerous "Lou left the team in utter shambles" posts.

But I enjoy debating these various subjects so forgive me if I continue to do so.

I’m not delusional, this debate will live forever, I just don’t even see the point. You can see the assets we had from when. It’s not complicated.

It’s only on this board do people think Lou’s legacy needs defending. Years ago he used to be competing with Holland but his rep has declined and he needs to win in Edmonton to revive it. People bitch about GMs, they’re management, that’s part of the job.

I don’t particularly have a problem with Late Stage Lou, other than Schneider trade and Kovy contract shenanigans. I know why he did what he did. It is what it is.

Verbeek and his infamous cash flow problems really threatened to throw the team into Arizona Coyotes territory in his last few years but Lou’s stature gave the team an air of respectability to counteract his debt hustling.

 

[youryeah]

this place needs some actual devils news f***ing badly. good lawd

 

[glenwo2]

Don't mind me...

I'm just paying no mind to the current conversation about...Lou(?) and just posting this fun highlight package of our Unicorn :



Reminding us that he's gonna get paid.

 

[My3Sons]

What most people here don’t seem to get is that trolling is when you post stuff that’s only designed to get a negative reaction. While saying Nico should be traded is unpopular and dead wrong imo it’s NOT trolling to have an unpopular opinion per se. It’s when you start posting digs at everyone and the board at large (or just post something blatantly obtuse) that it becomes trolling. The rest of you don’t help bordering on counterflaming at least. Personal attacks aren’t the answer either. Report posts if you think they’re trolling, or ignore them but attacks don’t help.

You guys (not you specifically) need to seriously ramp down before we start handing out more warnings and thread bans.

As a defense lawyer, I'd say that posting repetitive arguments that only work from a very gerrymandered point of view are blatantly obtuse. When an expert in court wants to opine on something but doesn't follow a generally accepted protocol backed by the published work in the industry it is supposed to be excluded by the judge. Letting someone offer repeated attacks on a specific player that deviate from reality and only cherry pick to slice the baloney one way, at times contradicting the approach taken by that poster with other players, is in bad faith and trolling as I see it. When it's the accumulation of hundreds of posts it's hard to report a single one as being all inclusive. You can certainly argue it's just dissenting opinion, but when it clearly rests on an irrational basis it goes beyond that in my view.

 

[glenwo2]

this place needs some actual devils news f***ing badly. good lawd

This is a bit old (tweeted on Father's day) but really amusing by Ryan :



LOL!! Did not know that Pepe pulled a "Tyson" before.

 

[RangerDoggo]

this place needs some actual devils news f***ing badly. good lawd

We already got some and it was all a bunch of Canadian media entitlement over Bratt. I prefer the fanbase fights.

 

[MartyOwns]

When I found out Lou was going to be fired...and make no mistake he was fired

and thank f*** for that. the day lou got squeezed out should be a federal holiday

 

[JimEIV]

I’m not delusional, this debate will live forever, I just don’t even see the point. You can see the assets we had from when. It’s not complicated.

It’s only on this board do people think Lou’s legacy needs defending. Years ago he used to be competing with Holland but his rep has declined and he needs to win in Edmonton to revive it. People bitch about GMs, they’re management, that’s part of the job.

I don’t particularly have a problem with Late Stage Lou, other than Schneider trade and Kovy contract shenanigans. I know why he did what he did. It is what it is.

Verbeek and his infamous cash flow problems really threatened to throw the team into Arizona Coyotes territory in his last few years but Lou’s stature gave the team an air of respectability to counteract his debt hustling.

Very thoughtful post.

From my perspective I thought everything with Lou’s replacement was handled poorly. It seemed bitter and ugly for a couple of years...the transition to new was done in a very spiteful way and publicly...from the #13, to twitter, to the dress code to the grooming it was all done in a big FU kind of way....many of the fans picked up on this and instead of treating with skepticism they seem to embrace it almost in a totalalitarian kind of party line way. . Truth be told I can't stand seeing Nico wearing 13...the symbolism is just too much for me....first ever NJ #1OA pissing on McMullen's grave how nice....as irrational as it sounds that's how I feel.

Nothing wrong with embracing change, it's a fact of life....but tact, respect and gentlemen lile behavior has always been a trade mark of hockey....and these f***ing interlopers said screw that burn all the bridges.

 

[SKNJD9]

Very thoughtful post.

From my perspective I thought everything with Lou’s replacement was handled poorly. It seemed bitter and ugly for a couple of years...the transition to new was done in a very spiteful way and publicly...from the #13, to twitter, to the dress code to the grooming it was all done in a big FU kind of way....many of the fans picked up on this and instead of treating with skepticism they seem to embrace it almost in a totalalitarian kind of party line way. . Truth be told I can't stand seeing Nico wearing 13...the symbolism is just too much for me....first ever NJ #1OA pissing on McMullen's grave how nice....as irrational as it sounds that's how I feel.

Nothing wrong with embracing change, it's a fact of life....but tact, respect and gentlemen lile behavior has always been a trade mark of hockey....and these f***ing interlopers said screw that burn all the bridges.

Not sure how it was done as FU, simply a different regime who had no ties to the way Lou done things. The twitter thing is funny though considering the Devils were one of the first to truly embrace social media and received awards for it due to their interactions on twitter during Lou's tenure, probably a Vanderbeek influence though.



The Nico number thing never bothered me at all since this was a thing first.

 

[JimEIV]

The guy you want to trade Nico for had a jump at age 26. So he can magically get better but Nico can't.

If by "jump" you mean first opportunity to play top line minutes literally going from 14:40 to over 20 minutes a game in Vancouver....yeah he had a jump....unfortunately Nico has been pretty much playing top line minutesfor ever with lackluster results.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Very thoughtful post.

From my perspective I thought everything with Lou’s replacement was handled poorly. It seemed bitter and ugly for a couple of years...the transition to new was done in a very spiteful way and publicly...from the #13, to twitter, to the dress code to the grooming it was all done in a big FU kind of way....many of the fans picked up on this and instead of treating with skepticism they seem to embrace it almost in a totalalitarian kind of party line way. . Truth be told I can't stand seeing Nico wearing 13...the symbolism is just too much for me....first ever NJ #1OA pissing on McMullen's grave how nice....as irrational as it sounds that's how I feel.

Nothing wrong with embracing change, it's a fact of life....but tact, respect and gentlemen lile behavior has always been a trade mark of hockey....and these f***ing interlopers said screw that burn all the bridges.

This is the epitome of the old man yelling at a cloud meme. At least you're aware it's irrational.

 

[NJDevs26]

Yeah Camm wore 13, but that also happened the minute Lou was out since he wore 23 his first year here. Not that it really matters a fig to me, superstition is different from tradition

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

2nd overall for PLD?

Sign me up.

He's not my first option (Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Pastrnak in that order are my first 3 options) but I'd rather trade the pick for PLD than use the pick.

He seems like a total asshole and he reportedly wants to go to UFA.

 

[JimEIV]

This is the epitome of the old man yelling at a cloud meme. At least you're aware it's irrational.

Most things that considered "tradition" are somewhat irrational. But if we want to behave like Spock and only embrace the logical life would be pretty sterile and utilitarian.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I really don't think Dubois is all that that great tbh. He's had more meh seasons than good seasons, and even then the good seasons are like 60 points.

He's closer to Mercer/Sharangovich than he is to Hughes/Bratt/Hischier. I certainly wouldn't give up #2 overall for him, especially considering you're probably only getting two years out of him.

 

[Guttersniped]

This is kind of revisionism....Mercer was put with Jack to make sure Nico and Jack got the 1/2 center spots....the brain trust literally ripped apart the most successful and dynamic line we had seen in years in with Mercer at Center with Bratt and Johnsson....They all werer producing at an awesome rate.

It's revisionism because Mercer’s best month was the month Jack was out in October and November and he got to play 2C which really was the defacto 1C in terms of production....you make it sound like Jack made Mercer’s season

While jJack was out Dawson had 14 points in 19 playing that center role....as soon as Jack returned on November 30th the Bratt Mercer Johnsson line was ripped apart, Mercer was no longer a top 2 center and he went ice cold....with Jack in the lineup. From November 30th on Jack’s return to December 29 Dawson had 2 points in the next 12 games...2 goals.

That sound more like being jerked around going from center to wing and being moved up and down the lineup as opposed to being dependent on a single player for success


What? What's wrong with 70-ish points? Oh wait...you think Jack is going shoot at 16% next year too? You want to make a bet on that?

I came back from a party where I had a few drinks or wouldn’t have jumped into this so much. I don’t care that you think Jack with score 70 points for some reason next year and, no, I don’t want to bet on it.

I don’t find debating very entertaining or productive since you don’t tend to have good faith arguments and you never acknowledge when anyone else is right about anything.

By not respecting the argument of the other people and not putting intellectual honesty above the debate you drag other people down into a very hostile petty debate spiral that just makes everything dumber and ruder. I don’t know why, when you discuss things you have also sorts of good observations. But a debate starts and then it’s tortured, cherry picked stat time and tunnel vision and never say die, argue in circles for eternity.

I’m not shitting on Mercer, he’s a delight and I have high hopes for the kid but he was a sheltered young rookie and you’re pointing to a small hot run bolstered Bratt. Mercer has the makings of someone who can be good defensively but he wasn’t good defensively at all yet, though I believe it will come.

The goal is to be more competitive next season. It’s counterproductive to trade away our most experienced center, who played the tough minutes last season and had a breakthrough season as a two-way center, and replace him with a kid who played a part of one season at center and struggled defensively.*

Even if you’re high on Mercer, you’re still taking a step back as you now have to wait years for this kid to mature as a center while you dump a two-way center who scored 60 points in 70 games.

We also lose the advantage of having depth at the position, when the better teams have extra C/Ws (Tampa being the best example) that give them greater flexibility in line-ups and the ability to survive injuries to key forwards.

People are getting unsigned winger RFAs for 2nds and prospects/rando players and you want to ship off one of our best players for one. You’re one approach to that argument is 1) endlessly undersell Nico 2) endlessly oversell Mercer.

I don’t want to quibble endlessly about those two players. I reject the premise that trading a young center signed long term for a unsigned RFA winger is a good move. Why grotesquely overpay and make our team way worse at the most important skater position when the market price for those players has been set low. (Those unsigned RFAs need contracts too, and they will pricy and they tend to be shorter term deals.)


*Of course you only discuss point production when it comes to centers except when Jack was scoring a lot and we were bleeding goals. Then you expressed a newfound interest in two-way play and weren’t just talking about raw production. (Zacha’s defense for instance never seemed to come up.)

 

[McDuffz88]

If by "jump" you mean first opportunity to play top line minutes literally going from 14:40 to over 20 minutes a game in Vancouver....yeah he had a jump....unfortunately Nico has been pretty much playing top line minutesfor ever with lackluster results.

You act like it is so farfetched that Nico can't improve as he gets older. In your mind Nico is a finished product & that last season him going on a 70 point pace was just a fluke. If we had Mackinnon you would of traded him before his breakout.