Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[glenwo2]

Not sure if this is actually him but I'll post it anyway :

This is Ryan Novozinsky (I have no idea how to prove it. I used to have a Reddit, but lost my password years ago.)
My buddy said you guys post my stuff here sometimes, so I just want to thank you all for the support over the past few weeks.
I'm young, I only graduated college from Oklahoma State University about a month ago and this is my first professional beat. So all the support has been overwhelming (in a really, really good way).
Thanks everyone!

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

I had a dream last night that included Bratt signing a $7.5mil deal with some other team. Wasn't happy about it.

 

[Eggtimer]

All the “known “ goalie options are pretty shitty. All of them have question marks with them. Small sample size or injury concern or way too inconsistent.
I know Bleed will shit but I think Gibson has the ability to be the best goalie of the bunch but……… his contract is way too long and expensive and would be waaaaayyyyy too risky to take a chance on.
Yes, he has been an average goalie past 2-3 years but out of all the goalies available , I see him as the most likely to have a good season or two left in him. But no way I gamble on 5 more seasons of him.

 

[glenwo2]

I had a dream last night that included Bratt signing a $7.5mil deal with some other team. Wasn't happy about it.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Sharangovich - Hughes - DeBrincat = 16.4 million
Fiala - Hischier - Bratt = 20.5 million
Marchment - Boqvist - Mercer = 5.5 million
Wood - McLeod - Bastian = 5 million
Johnsson, Zetterlund = 4.2 million

Graves - Hamilton = 12.16 million
Siegenthaler - Severson = 5.3 million
Smith - Subban = 2 million
Okhotiuk = 1 million

Blackwood = 2.8 million
Campbell/Husso = 4.5 million

That equals 79.36 million. Then we have 2 million for Schneider buyout. thats 81.36 million. Salary cap is 82.5.

@Zajacs Bowl Cut

This assumes:
Fiala 6.75 cap hit
Bratt 6.5 cap hit
Marchment 3.5 cap hit
Boqvist 1.1 cap hit
Wood 3.5 cap hit
Subban 1.1 cap hit
Campbell/Husso 4.5 cap hit

 

[Eggtimer]

Sharangovich - Hughes - DeBrincat = 16.4 million
Fiala - Hischier - Bratt = 20.5 million
Marchment - Boqvist - Mercer = 5.5 million
Wood - McLeod - Bastian = 5 million
Johnsson, Zetterlund = 4.2 million

Graves - Hamilton = 12.16 million
Siegenthaler - Severson = 5.3 million
Smith - Subban = 2 million
Okhotiuk = 1 million

Blackwood = 2.8 million
Campbell/Husso = 4.5 million

That equals 79.36 million. Then we have 2 million for Schneider buyout. thats 81.36 million. Salary cap is 82.5.

@Zajacs Bowl Cut

Johnson could be moved easier than normal due to his actual salary vs. his cap hit.
Makes a little more room but the second line you listed is too low in salary . Fiala will be 7-8 Nico then Bratt will be 6.5-8 .
Id rather sign Nichushkin and Gaudreau at 16 total than Fiala and Debrincat at 16/17 plus giving up assets to trade for them…


Or even Nichushkin, Marchment , Neiderrieder .

In your lineup , there are some players that need to get moved first and that might be harder than a person thinks.
Zacha , Tatar, Kuokkanen , along with Johnson all could be moved without me shedding a tear…..
It frees up cap room and roster slots. I have a shitty feeling that we will be (forced) playing all three of Zacha Johnson Tatar . That is not good at all….

 

[glenwo2]

Sharangovich - Hughes - DeBrincat = 16.4 million
Fiala - Hischier - Bratt = 20.5 million
Marchment - Boqvist - Mercer = 5.5 million
Wood - McLeod - Bastian = 5 million
Johnsson, Zetterlund = 4.2 million

Graves - Hamilton = 12.16 million
Siegenthaler - Severson = 5.3 million
Smith - Subban = 2 million
Okhotiuk = 1 million

Blackwood = 2.8 million
Campbell/Husso = 4.5 million

That equals 79.36 million. Then we have 2 million for Schneider buyout. thats 81.36 million. Salary cap is 82.5.

@Zajacs Bowl Cut

This assumes:
Fiala 6.75 cap hit
Bratt 6.5 cap hit
Marchment 3.5 cap hit
Boqvist 1.1 cap hit
Wood 3.5 cap hit
Subban 1.1 cap hit
Campbell/Husso 4.5 cap hit

That is one expensive 2nd line....

 

[OmNomNom]

That is one expensive 2nd line....

that's bc it's a 1b line hehe

 

[Eggtimer]

That is one expensive 2nd line....

And I think that it will be more than that on top of it.
Fiala will be 7+ Bratt 6+ at the very very least.
Thats another possible issue. Low balling Bratt then turning around and pay Fiala more than him? Fiala was report asking 7.5 or more.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Subban is not going to sign for ~$1 million....

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Johnson could be moved easier than normal due to his actual salary vs. his cap hit.
Makes a little more room but the second line you listed is too low in salary . Fiala will be 7-8 Nico then Bratt will be 6.5-8 .
Id rather sign Nichushkin and Gaudreau at 16 total than Fiala and Debrincat at 16/17 plus giving up assets to trade for them…


Or even Nichushkin, Marchment , Neiderrieder .

In your lineup , there are some players that need to get moved first and that might be harder than a person thinks.
Zacha , Tatar, Kuokkanen , along with Johnson all could be moved without me shedding a tear…..
It frees up cap room and roster slots. I have a shitty feeling that we will be (forced) playing all three of Zacha Johnson Tatar . That is not good at all….

- I agree about Johnsson, however I think he provides more value to the team than each of Zacha, Kuokkanen, or Tatar. I'd like to keep Johnsson around for this coming season, but wouldn't lose sleep if he's traded away.
- No chance Nichuskin signs here with Ruff as the head coach. Gaudreau ain't signing here either come on. I'm not a Niederreiter fan. I would LOVE if we could land Marchment. Hence why he's the only UFA forward I have us signing.

That is one expensive 2nd line....

All signed longterm. Might be expensive in 2022-23 when the cap is 82.5 million. But how about in 2025-26 when the cap is 90-95 million?

And I think that it will be more than that on top of it.
Fiala will be 7+ Bratt 6+ at the very very least.
Thats another possible issue. Low balling Bratt then turning around and pay Fiala more than him? Fiala was report asking 7.5 or more.

If Fiala wants 7.5 million then I am not trading for him. If he takes between 6.75-7, then I'd love to have him.

Subban is not going to sign for ~$1 million....

Then see ya later PK!

He's made over 80 million in his career and has a boatload of money waiting for him post retirement as well. He would gladly take 1 million a year to sign where he wants to sign.

 

[Eggtimer]

Gaudreau doesn’t sign here but I was just sayig I’d rather sign him or even Forsberg than pay out the ass for Fiala or DeBrincat

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Keep in mind that in that above scenario, you then have to sign the following in 2023:

Sharangovich, McLeod, Bastian, Severson, Graves, Siegenthaler, Ty Smith, and Blackwood and you'd only have what, $25 million to do that?

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

Keep in mind that in that above scenario, you then have to sign the following in 2023:

Sharangovich, McLeod, Bastian, Severson, Graves, Siegenthaler, Ty Smith, and Blackwood and you'd only have what, $25 million to do that?

25 should suffice, even 20 should cut it. Ty doesnt deserve much, Mcleod, Bastian easily replaceable and not wort too much, Blackwood knows he needs to step up to earn his paycheck, so its really division of cap between Shara (if his development takes a bad turn, he'll be cheap), and in reality, only Graves, siegs and Sevs are proven players whose value is pretty clear for everyone

 

[MartyOwns]

Keep in mind that in that above scenario, you then have to sign the following in 2023:

Sharangovich, McLeod, Bastian, Severson, Graves, Siegenthaler, Ty Smith, and Blackwood and you'd only have what, $25 million to do that?

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Keep in mind that in that above scenario, you then have to sign the following in 2023:

Sharangovich, McLeod, Bastian, Severson, Graves, Siegenthaler, Ty Smith, and Blackwood and you'd only have what, $25 million to do that?

Both Graves AND Smith probably become expendable with arrival of Luke Hughes, and emergence of any young defender in the system (Mukhamadullin/Okhotiuk/Bahl/Vukojevic/Misyul/McCarthy/other)

Sharangovich shouldn't garner a significant raise unless he tears it up this year - which would be a good problem to have.

McLeod, Bastian, and Blackwood salaries will be pretty much the same.

Severson will get a 1-2 million raise, and Siegenthaler will get a ~3 million raise.

It's very very doable.

 

[NJDevs26]

I don't think there's any scenario where the Devils re-sign both Graves and Severson unless Graves actually takes a short-term deal.

 

[Guttersniped]

Sharangovich - Hughes - DeBrincat = 16.4 million
Fiala - Hischier - Bratt = 20.5 million
Marchment - Boqvist - Mercer = 5.5 million
Wood - McLeod - Bastian = 5 million
Johnsson, Zetterlund = 4.2 million

Graves - Hamilton = 12.16 million
Siegenthaler - Severson = 5.3 million
Smith - Subban = 2 million
Okhotiuk = 1 million

Blackwood = 2.8 million
Campbell/Husso = 4.5 million

That equals 79.36 million. Then we have 2 million for Schneider buyout. thats 81.36 million. Salary cap is 82.5.

@Zajacs Bowl Cut

This assumes:
Fiala 6.75 cap hit
Bratt 6.5 cap hit
Marchment 3.5 cap hit
Boqvist 1.1 cap hit
Wood 3.5 cap hit
Subban 1.1 cap hit
Campbell/Husso 4.5 cap hit

I made this before your follow up post and it didn’t work here. (This is with Bernier on the LTIR, so his salary doesn’t count as we’re capped out.)

I don’t know who or how the Tatar & Kuok trades were exactly supposed to go down but I dumped their full salaries anyway.

I used Evolving Hockey’s contract estimates, except with Wood. That’s his qualifying offer, I see you did the same. (They have Marchment pretty cheap here too.)

Not sure why you think Fiala is signing for that cheap when his ask to the Wild was 8m unless you plan on signing him to a shorter bridge deal.

There’s zero chance Subban takes 1.1m from us.

Then the problem is what do you do with Severson & Graves and when RFAs start needing raises (DeBrincat, Siegenthaler, Sharogovich, Mercer, etc)? Johnsson drops away but that’s 3.4m minus a roster player’s salary.

You can’t actually add all this salary (DeBrincat, Fiala, Marchment, top UFA goalie, etc) along with Hughes’ & Bratt’s raises.

The cap isn’t rising significantly for a few seasons and you just traded away the two of the most likely impactful cheaper players (Holtz, 2OA) while making it very hard to give RFAs raises.

 

[Bleedred]

All the “known “ goalie options are pretty shitty. All of them have question marks with them. Small sample size or injury concern or way too inconsistent.
I know Bleed will shit but I think Gibson has the ability to be the best goalie of the bunch but……… his contract is way too long and expensive and would be waaaaayyyyy too risky to take a chance on.
Yes, he has been an average goalie past 2-3 years but out of all the goalies available , I see him as the most likely to have a good season or two left in him. But no way I gamble on 5 more seasons of him.

He does have the highest ceiling of the available goalies, but that's only because of what he used to be and the fact that he's 29 and not 33. So there's a little better chance he bounces back than Cory when he was 3 years into his decline (while also being 33 by that point) but not enough for how much time he has left. He could be a nice steal for somebody if he were to be bought out and someone could get him for 1-2 years, but that would be contingent on him turning back the clock a few years, as well as staying healthy and not getting injured for something and missing time like he did quite a bit earlier in his career.

And none of the available goalies will likely be as good as he was before the decline years.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

So if we were to land Gaudreau from UFA, we could theoretically end up with something like this if we proceed to trade the 2OA pick + some other younger assets as well:

I'm assuming we'd lose Zacha, Smith, Holtz, and 2ndOA for Tkachuk or Debrincat.

F:
Bratt-Hughes-Sharangovich
Tkachuk/Debrincat-Gaudreau-Johnsson(cheap extn)
Mercer-Hischier-Tatar(cheap extn)
Foote-McLeod/Kuokkanen-Wood

D:
Hamilton-Severson
Hughes-Siegs
Bahl-Graves/Muk

G:
Blackwood-beachball

We could then try to leverage anything we still have beyond that to fix goaltending, unless Blackwood has a resurgence.

There's no way that's still a losing team. But if it didn't work out, we'd also kind of mess up a future window we may be building right now.

One we couldn’t afford all of that and two that lineup is weird. Why in the world would be get those big time players just to extend Tatar and Johnsson and throw them on their lines. Weird.

And Gaudreau isn’t a Center. And did Bastian die? And why is Kuokkonen there? So many confusing aspects to that.

 

[Guttersniped]

Both Graves AND Smith probably become expendable with arrival of Luke Hughes, and emergence of any young defender in the system (Mukhamadullin/Okhotiuk/Bahl/Vukojevic/Misyul/McCarthy/other)

Sharangovich shouldn't garner a significant raise unless he tears it up this year - which would be a good problem to have.

McLeod, Bastian, and Blackwood salaries will be pretty much the same.

Severson will get a 1-2 million raise, and Siegenthaler will get a ~3 million raise.

It's very very doable.

Sharangovich will definitely in line for a raise from 2m if he scores +25 goals next season.

Even if he makes 4.5m that’s still an extra 2.5m we need to find.

Once cap space gets tighter salaries start to get a lot more important. We’re just used to ignoring them.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Trade 2nd overall + Foote for DeBrincat.
Trade Holtz for Fiala.
Sign Marchment
Sign Campbell/Husso
Re-sign Subban.
Trade away Zacha, Kuokkanen, Tatar

Sharangovich - Hughes - DeBrincat
Fiala - Hischier - Bratt
Marchment - Boqvist - Mercer
Wood - McLeod - Bastian
Johnsson, Zetterlund

Graves - Hamilton
Siegenthaler - Severson
Smith - Subban
Okhotiuk

Blackwood
Campbell/Husso

No thanks. Don’t want Debrincat and Fiala and that would be way too expensive. Wouldn’t trade the second overall pick for Debrincat personally especially if no extension has been agreed. If there’s a reasonable extension in place I’d be fine with it but would rather not.

 

[Hisch13r]

Fiala+Puljujarvi/Mikheyev up front with Kuemper/Campbell in net and some 3RD with Zacha and Johnsson going out would be a very successful offseason to be.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

- I agree about Johnsson, however I think he provides more value to the team than each of Zacha, Kuokkanen, or Tatar. I'd like to keep Johnsson around for this coming season, but wouldn't lose sleep if he's traded away.
- No chance Nichuskin signs here with Ruff as the head coach. Gaudreau ain't signing here either come on. I'm not a Niederreiter fan. I would LOVE if we could land Marchment. Hence why he's the only UFA forward I have us signing.



All signed longterm. Might be expensive in 2022-23 when the cap is 82.5 million. But how about in 2025-26 when the cap is 90-95 million?



If Fiala wants 7.5 million then I am not trading for him. If he takes between 6.75-7, then I'd love to have him.


Then see ya later PK!

He's made over 80 million in his career and has a boatload of money waiting for him post retirement as well. He would gladly take 1 million a year to sign where he wants to sign.

You basically undercut every extension/signing to make it work. And this is ignoring that more extensions will be needed pretty soon after which we won’t be able to afford even with a raised cap and Johnsson off the books. Debrincat, Sharangovich, Siegenthaler and Mercer will all be up for significant raises. Probably at least 10-11M worth there if not higher.
Would also have Blackwood, Smtih, and Boqvist. Severson and Graves too if you decide to keep either of them.

Also not very interested in Marchment. Don’t think he’s much more than a 4th line player who just had a career year lifted by one of the best and deepest teams in the league.

 

[Mgd31]

Fiala+Puljujarvi/Mikheyev up front with Kuemper/Campbell in net and some 3RD with Zacha and Johnsson going out would be a very successful offseason to be.

That seems pretty reasonable. I would like another play driving winger and Fiala is probably more realistic than Gaudreau.