Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[MasterofGrond]

Great! Nowhere did I ever say that McLeod should stay out for a 3 on 3 shift when his team has the puck. He should immediately get to the bench and change. Given how 3v3 is structured, this seldom changes the game state at all - teams still can't pressure the puck carrier sufficiently to make changing on the fly in these spots bad.



Go watch some shifts of 5v5 hockey and 3v3 hockey. It is a totally different game.

It is a totally different game, and possession matters more. It does not matter enough to make mcleod ever a better choice than centers with a 5% lower win rates. Even if he’s coming off the ice if he wins.

Because if he loses, he’s f***ing you. And if you win you gotta transition him off, rather than go right on the attack.

 

[beekay414]

This just isn’t true honestly. McLeod’s biggest drawback offensively is he has the shot of a peewee player.

His biggest asset is his speed, puck carrying, his tenacity, and his defensive game. In theory, that is the exact skill set that is needed in a 3-on-3 overtime period. Not to mention, face offs become even more important in OT which he excels at.

Is he going to be dynamic in a 3-on-3? Absolutely not. Should he be one of the first 5-6-7 options on the Devils? Nope. Could he be effective? I think so.

He's not a threat with the puck on his stick at all.

Go watch some shifts of 5v5 hockey and 3v3 hockey. It is a totally different game.

I'm very aware. The only positive that he may bring to 3 on 3 hockey is his ability to pressure a puck carrier and win faceoffs. I'm not remotely worried about the impact of potentially losing that nor am I focused on paying him more than he's worth. He's a 4th line FO specialist.

 

[Triumph]

It is a totally different game, and possession matters more. It does not matter enough to make mcleod ever a better choice than centers with a 5% lower win rates. Even if he’s coming off the ice if he wins.

Because if he loses, he’s f***ing you. And if you win you gotta transition him off, rather than go right on the attack.

Again, try watching a shift of 3v3 sometime. Teams seldom 'attack' right off the opening faceoff.

He's not f***ing you if he loses, the only thing you are losing is the ability to transition quickly if he's still getting off the ice the next chance he gets. That is a loss, but I don't think it's worth losing 5% of faceoff ability - and indeed, McLeod's FO% rate at ES was 61.2, with Nico at 52.2% and Haula at 54.2%. Not saying this is their true talent but I think it's more than 5%.

I'd be curious how many 3v3 OTs end up with the defending team either conceding a goal or a penalty without ever having possession of the puck. I'd wager it's something like 10%.

 

[beekay414]

Again, try watching a shift of 3v3 sometime. Teams seldom 'attack' right off the opening faceoff.

He's not f***ing you if he loses, the only thing you are losing is the ability to transition quickly if he's still getting off the ice the next chance he gets. That is a loss, but I don't think it's worth losing 5% of faceoff ability - and indeed, McLeod's FO% rate at ES was 61.2, with Nico at 52.2% and Haula at 54.2%. Not saying this is their true talent but I think it's more than 5%.

In terms of an individual faceoff, what's the % difference that he's going to win it over Nico or Haula? Cuz if he wins 6/10 and Nico wins 5/10 are we talking a 10% higher chance or am I just horrible at mathing probabilities (which I don't doubt). I think it's just such a miniscule difference that it's easy to just overlook it and go with the more talented options.

 

[Csonked Out]

Nick Bjugstad intrigues me as a low cost option

 

[HersheyBob27]

The only thing repulsive is what happened there.

Formenton, one of the rumored to be involved, was a promising young player who Ottawa just refused to sign following the news breaking. The rest of the guys rumored to be involved were already under contract, so nothing legally could be done without charges/etc.

Just saying there’s a strong possibility the Devils just decide to cut their losses and avoid any potential backfire if they believe/know him to be involved. Of course the arbitration case is also a factor, but you can’t tell me the Devils didn’t also consider this aspect of it.

I genuinely hope he did nothing wrong, but we’d be stupid to ignore this might be a contributing factor.

I thought formenton was given QO but refused to sign it. I could be mistaken

 

[Lou Bloom]

Some interesting Non tenders the Devils could target:

Ryan Poehling - Former first round pick, good physical tools and pre NHL production, Good defensive forward, played with Jack on the 2019 WJC squad.

Morgan Geekie - Good tools and has seemingly gotten better each year. Good pre NHL production, had a regular role on a deep Kraken squad.

Klim Kostin - Former first round pick, Big physical winger with some skill.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The winger comment that Fitz had leaving the draft is pretty intriguing. Maybe he's looking for a heavier winger for the Palat-Haula line to compliment them but also able to move said player with Jack/Bratt if needed as a spot shift/game someone like a Kostin? Then probably legit play drivers or speed guys on the 4th line with Wood/Bastian not being QO'd

 

[Zippy316]

I thought formenton was given QO but refused to sign it. I could be mistaken

He did get a QO following his ELC so it was cheap. I believe the deadline from him accepting his QO had passed and Ottawa never offered him a new contract.

He just came off a 30 point season, so would’ve been foolish for him to take the 800k in a normal situation.

In terms of an individual faceoff, what's the % difference that he's going to win it over Nico or Haula? Cuz if he wins 6/10 and Nico wins 5/10 are we talking a 10% higher chance or am I just horrible at mathing probabilities (which I don't doubt). I think it's just such a miniscule difference that it's easy to just overlook it and go with the more talented options.

That chance is arguably worth it in OT where possession is absolutely everything. Even moreso with how dominant our roster was in the OT period.

And it’s not like McLeod is a liability defensively if he does lose it at all. The second the team regained possession in OT, McLeod always made a beeline straight for the bench.

This really is as non issue as a non issue can be.

 

[Csonked Out]

McLeod was third in the entire league in face of percentage and it certainly has value. That being said he is being criminally overrated by some on here.

 

[beekay414]

That chance is arguably worth it in OT where possession is absolutely everything. Even moreso with how dominant our roster was in the OT period.

And it’s not like McLeod is a liability defensively if he does lose it at all. The second the team regained possession in OT, McLeod always made a beeline straight for the bench.

This really is as non issue as a non issue can be.

You're right, it's a non issue because it's as marginal as marginal gets. Just put your most talented players on the ice and forget about it.

 

[Triumph]

You're right, it's a non issue because it's as marginal as marginal gets. Just put your most talented players on the ice and forget about it.

Except that if you did this, you'd be putting out Bratt and Hughes and losing 70% of faceoffs. Feels like a mistake to me.

 

[beekay414]

McLeod was third in the entire league in face of percentage and it certainly has value. That being said he is being criminally overrated by some on here.

I'm really not sure we all watch the same games. Just some interesting takes is all I'll say.

Except that if you did this, you'd be putting out Bratt and Hughes and losing 70% of faceoffs. Feels like a mistake to me.

You'd be putting out Nico and Hughes.

 

[Billdo]

I was "bashing" him after he had a pretyt good playoffs

I was "bashing" him before we knew he wasn't qualified

this qualification has no bearing on my opinion of him as a player, just like Bratt's contract status didn't impact what I thought of him prior to signing.


you trying to kick Haula to the curb, too?

Or is it that maybe, sometimes, in a league where non-star players don't have a lot of control over their futures, some guys are just gonna get moved a bunch?

I'm not entirely sure why you felt my post was specifically about you, it wasn't.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Not only did Fitz pick up Lazar at the deadline, but he’s been mentioning Nolan Foote a lot this off-season.

I think he knew it was McBastian might price themselves out and was trying to give himself some leverage. If they want to be back, great, if they don’t want to sign cheap then that’s fine too. We have options who will play for cheap.

 

[Billdo]

what a dangerously repulsive and embarrassing post.

I mean to completely dismiss the possibility of it being connected is rather naive.

 

[Csonked Out]

I mean to completely dismiss the possibility of it being connected is rather naive.

I’m already expecting him to not be available to play next year to be perfectly honest.

 

[beekay414]

You can literally mix your talent as you need to.

Nico, Jack, Dougie (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carrier, shooter)
Nico, Jack, Luke (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carriers)
Nico, Bratt, Dougie (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carrier, shooter)
Nico, Bratt, Luke (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carriers)
Nico, Meier, Luke (non-potato centerman, shooter, dynamic puck carrier)
Nico, Mercer, Luke (non-potato centerman, shooter, dynamic puck carrier)
Haula, Jack, Dougie (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carrier, shooter)
Haula, Bratt, Dougie (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carrier, shooter)
Haula, Bratt, Luke (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carriers)
Haula, Jack, Luke (non-potato centerman, dynamic puck carriers)
Haula, Meier, Luke (non-potato centerman, shooter, dynamic puck carrier)
Haula, Mercer, Luke (non-potato centerman, shooter, dynamic puck carrier)

We have several variations we can throw out there that leaves Mikey McPotato off the ice.

 

[Guttersniped]

 

[beekay414]

View attachment 724497

 

[Guttersniped]

That 1% competition is… something.

Lol, just a bit sheltered.

 

[Guttersniped]

i love how people fixate on the FO and ignore his role on the PK:

His minutes were down in the regular season this year.

We’re also potentially looking at major turnover on the PK after already losing Graves, Severson and Sharangovich.

No one cares about the PK until it’s bad and losing us games. (Not that we have to keep everyone for the PK but realistic replacements are needed for lost guys.)

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't buy the RAPM or HockeyViz models on that.

Bastian is a great defender by the eye test too, you can see it more live perhaps but he really is a smarter defender around the net. He can’t cover a ton of ice because he’s not fast but he’s nearly as delightful around the net as Marino is.

Bastian’s not as good an offensive player, he has a hard low ceiling due to his lack of speed not being remotely dynamic, but he’s a very smart defensive player.

 

[beekay414]

Again, I don't think people are really ignoring anything about McLeod. He's a limited player that's good in his niche role. It's just your typical people going back and forth on his actual impact. Overstated on one end, understated on another (I'm sure I'm guilty of this). In the end, it comes down to his cost. You can find PK specialists. If he's pushing $2 Million, then I have no interest. If he's above $1.5 Million, I'm barely interested.

 

[beekay414]