Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[JrFischer54]

It not realistic to expect Hellebuyck to take an extraordinary ridiculous paycut as a UFA to make teams happy.

And you can’t ask him to take a major haircut on term AND AAV. It doesn’t work that way with UFAs, you got to give them a big bag of money somehow.

Top goalies have had deals runs until their late 30s.
Lundqvist: he was going to be 39 when his last deal ended in 2020-21. (It was bought out in 2020, so it ended when he was 38.)
Price: his deal ends at age 38 after 2025-26
Bob: his deal ends at age 37 after 2025-26
Quick: His 10 year (!) deal ended when he was 37.
Kuemper: His deal ends at age 37 after 2026-27

He’s in a bit of pickle because the market for his huge deal isn’t that big. Some teams are just going to pass because they don’t want giant older goalie deals and other teams won’t have the space or have other solutions.

He could technically go for cheaper because a 8 year deal ends when he’s 39, so the ridiculous term can pull down the AAV. Remember he already makes 6.17m and is expecting a raise.

He might take a year or two off his deal, so it ends at a somewhat more realistic age. But less term means more AAV.

Historically the second big deal of any goalie is a legacy deal that doesn’t go well (to put it mildly).

A best case scenario is Lundqvist, who’s a 1st ballot Hall of Famer for his consistency and longevity, and he started to fade after 2 years into his last 7 year/8.5m contract. He was 32 years 4 months old when that deal started.

By the 3rd year, when he was 34, his back-ups started putting up better numbers.

The second big contract to Price, a 8 year/10.5m deal which started when he was 30 years 10 months old, has been mostly a disaster due to injury and it finally ends in 2025-26.

Bob was 30 years 9 months old when he signed his 7 year/10m deal which ends in 2025-26.

Hellebuyck will be 31 years 1 month old on July 1st 2024.

I obviously don’t know how Hellybuyck will perform in the future. Maybe he has future Vezina level seasons and amazing playoffs runs in him that would make it all worth it but realistically this contract is a very bad idea.

Unless a non contending team wants to make a splash I don’t see a team offering him big money. Even the devils who “need” a stud in net don’t really need him so his options will be limited. Hard to believe a gm will tie his name to a big name deal for him but we will see.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Too early to consider a buyout.

A little surprised the analytics guys don't give him more props actually. xGF% was good this season. And before people say he was carried by Nico and Bratt, he was better away from those guys then with. Was really good with Boq and Haula.

Though not in the playoffs, he was at 70% xGF with Nico. Only around 50% with Hughes.

Hoping next year he'll be better ....The contract I get where Fitz was going but it was too much and term was bad....However he is a gamer and that play on Fox and Kreider alone made the signing worth it to long suffering Devils fan base imo and if healthy I think he will bring more of that in the future guy is tough as nails....

would rather go with luke schenn if he would take a one year deal at something around $1.5-2 million ish. last i heard was leafs are looking close to league minimum for him, but he wants more than that.

I'd give him two at that would bring a consistent physical presence we need and help pour young Dmen grow

 

[JrFischer54]

I just think the market for Helle won’t be what he is expecting . I don’t think any team hands out that much cash and years anymore . Ya GMs have made that mistake in the past , however I think that they have seen it happen more often than not where a long term high $ contract on a 30 year old goalie is very very risky . I can’t see a contender make the cap room for him . I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that we could end up with him in a bargain deal . The reason why I don’t think we go after him is Brodeur has said they will not pay UFA prices on a goalie and they want to develop the position from within . They spent a shit ton of money on a goaltending system of coach’s trainers talent evaluators and several people hired to run the department.

I agree 100% with this on bucks options And what the devils want to do. I’m fine running the duo back but if they flop in reg season or playoffs then they have to make a change.

 

[JrFischer54]

People gotta chill with the palat buyout talk lol. Guy is a gamer and knows how to win and I don’t think it’s a coincidence he signs and the team starts playing better.

 

[britdevil]

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Yes, too soon

The depths this board will go to. I just can't fathom it.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

People gotta chill with the palat buyout talk lol. Guy is a gamer and knows how to win and I don’t think it’s a coincidence he signs and the team starts playing better.

Goaltending + full year of Jack + Nico helped that more than Palat, lol. Palat was out for half of the year. I'll give him 2023-2024 because his hip was probably destroyed up until the surgery but if we can squeeze a good year 2 + 3 and then move on after that somehow, it's a win in my eyes.

 

[Emperoreddy]

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Yes, too soon

Inaccurate as a sub captained by Dano and designed by Genucel would never implode

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[Incharge1976]

I don’t think Dougie’s deal with be something we’d need to get out of. I think he could still be worth it even if he declines some with where the cap could be. Maybe you get out if it because Casey’s great or maybe you sign Quinn as a UFA which will be when Dougie has one year left

The only problem I have with Dougie is his speed. I'm cringing at what it will be like in a few years.

 

[billingtons ghost]

It's Adj. Point Share data from HR, so obviously grain of salt everywhere, but anybody claiming Vernon isn't significantly worse than Barrasso as an induction is out to lunch. Vernon is a JOKE.

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If you look more closely at your data, Lundpads drops off at the same time Vernon does, year 12. Then plays as an NHL goalie four years after he quit. His data starts at year 5. Also you are comparing dead puck era to the mid 80s.

It's tough to make these comparisons when one guy is facing Gretzky and company and Bure/mogilny in their prime for eight games and the other has well.. us, the Isles, the Flyers etc at our nadir.

I just don't see apples to apples.

But Yeah, Barasso is much better than Vernon.
Have I mentioned goalie stats stink?

 

[Better Call Sal]

So in the event Rango gets moved (not necessarily something I’d wish to see happen), would you be opposed to bringing Tatar back if he was open to a short term deal and a slightly lower cap hit?

I don’t know if it’s realistic, but:

Meier-Hischier-Mercer
Palat-Hughes-Bratt
Tatar-Haula-Holtz
Foote-McLeod-Bastian
Ex: Boqvist, Lazar

Just hypothetical lines to throw together. Obviously all dependent on how things shake out with the pending FAs. I feel like he would be a guy who would stay if he could and I do value what he brings. Just goes to show we've got a decent bit of a logjam on the wings at the moment, but certainly not a bad problem to have.

I think it's more likely that his time here is done, but do appreciate what he brings to the table. Ah well.

 

[Blender]

Tatar is a such a puck hound. It's like unleashing a dog out there to chase the puck down.

 

[Rhodes 81]

If we were to trade Sharangovich and make no other additions to the forwards outside of the prospects (and the assumed not re-signing Wood), then I would be all for bringing Tatar back. He had an excellent season that even exceeded what I thought we would get from him when he was signed.

I would have the same rule for him as I do for other potential additions at forward, though. Max 2 years on the cheap or market value on a 1 year contract. I don't want to be stuck with him again if he has a repeat of 21-22 (which to be fair wasn't as bad as he got dumped on for but also wasn't really moving the needle).

I do think it's fair to question the playoff scoring with him at this point as well, unlike with Bratt or Hischier or whoever. He's had a track record of that at this point.

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[Guttersniped]

It's Adj. Point Share data from HR, so obviously grain of salt everywhere, but anybody claiming Vernon isn't significantly worse than Barrasso as an induction is out to lunch. Vernon is a JOKE.

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I do think Vernon is a little suspect.


I like the Adjusted Hockey project and I feel like Vernon is a little suspect. Not going to lie, didn’t watch a ton of Calgary in the 1990s lol so can’t speak firsthand.



Adjusted Hockey is no hater and tries to be nice.




I will say even before seeing this I was a huge Joseph supporter, also thought Vanbiesbrouck was a strong candidate (though his US Hockey leadership is a trash fire so less enthusiasm lol) and would do back flips if Vokoun got in*. Love me some Tomas Vokoun.

And Thomas sneaking in makes feel totally seen. (But as I said before, even if they considered him worthy, they aren’t giving him a microphone and risking him going off.)

And Barrasso makes the cut! See! And Chico nearly does, good for him. Underrated. As is Richter. (I like Rags goalies, I can’t explain either.)

Edit: And I didn’t mention Burke, take my Offical Elderly Devils Fan card away. He was the star of this memorable (cheapo) ad:



I’m surprised Kiprusoff isn’t higher. Oh well.

@Bleedred Osgood coming behind of Ward is so lowkey harsh, they might as well just punched him in the face lol.


Well Turgeon and Barrasso came earlier than he expected. And look, there’s a certain fella sitting hypothetically in his Class of 2026 we’re all pretty fond of.

Here’s his defensive candidates:




*Disclaimer: I can’t actually do backflips.

 

[Hisch13r]

The only problem I have with Dougie is his speed. I'm cringing at what it will be like in a few years.

I could see that going either way and the fact that his last year is only his age 34 year rather than like 36 or 37 gives he hope that at least through year 6 he should at least good enough to where it’s not an awful deal. He already doesn’t have to rely on his skating which is something that could deteriorate fast with some injuries. If it’s only some marginal decrease he could bear it just fine. I could see him ending up like Burns. Burns through 33 was still a really high end guy. Then his age 34 year he took a dip down to good but not high end. As long as we get through at least 6 of him being worth it I’ll be happy and I can definitely see that happening. If anything I think the bigger issue with him won’t be a drop in talent level but a drop in opportunity and usage that makes having him at 9 an issue

Buying out just the last year makes it 5.5 and then 1.75. If he is actually still good at the end we’d probably be able to eat half and ship him off somewhere if need be instead of a buyout

 

[Better Call Sal]

Crazy to think this was 6 years ago already.

 

[Cheddabombs]

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My sources are telling me the deal is close to done, could be announced today. Timo is taking a bit of a pay cut to have a lifetime supply of Genucel, and a 30 second spot with Dano.

 

[Saugus]

My sources are telling me the deal is close to done, could be announced today. Timo is taking a bit of a pay cut to have a lifetime supply of Genucel, and a 30 second spot with Dano.

Throw in an endorsement deal with RWJ Barnabas and a no-show job at PSE&G and Timo is set for life!

 

[Hisch13r]

Canes are having issues signing Staal. Want

 

[ndkjr70]

If Kovy is a hall of famer, I wonder what jersey Ilya Kovalchuk will be wearing / what team he'd be representing.

Majority of his career is Atlanta, but they don't exist (maybe that doesn't matter?). Most NHL fans remember him as a Devil, despite only playing a few years there.

Can you enter the HHoF representing a KHL team, lol? If so, it's probably SKA?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I want nothing to do with anyone in that family (Staal)

 

[Ripshot 43]

Canes are having issues signing Staal. Want

I didn’t listen yet but I’ve seen that they want to resign Pesce too but are having trouble and said they will trade him if they need to.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I want nothing to do with anyone in that family (Staal)

?? Two of them just went to the Stanley Cup final and the other was a major factor in defeating us in the 2nd round.

Are you seriously holding a grudge from a goal against us in 2009?

 

[RANDOMH3RO]

?? Two of them just went to the Stanley Cup final and the other was a major factor in defeating us in the 2nd round.

Are you seriously holding a grudge from a goal against us in 2009?

Probably the outing the family as homophobes this year more likely.