Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Devs3cups]

If we’re going to have the dead cap I’d rather retain half. That’d be 2 years of 3 rather than 3.5 and 2.5 and then 2 1.5 years.

Basically buying him out in June 2026 instead?

 

[JrFischer54]

All it takes is one team. Still can’t see anyone going to 9.5 over 8 but I could see someone do like 8x8

it depends if its a team that isn't contending but just wants to spend money and make a splash like say the yotes or the jackets then yeah sure they would throw stupid money at him. a true contender? chances are they don't have the trade capital or the cap space to fit him so goes to the player whats more important a huge payday non contender or a decent pay day with a contender?

 

[Hisch13r]

Seems like that was the plan from the start, same with Hamilton. I forget the exact numbers but I remember his buyout being pretty low for the last year of his deal. Feels like that's the likely way to go.

If Nemec doesn't get the service time this year, his contract will slide and that would be the first year his ELC is up. The only remaining big raises we might anticipate between now and then would be Luke, Mercer, and Holtz if he works out. We might be able to ride that out with the combined savings from the Schneider buyout, Koukkanen buyout, and Kovalchuk cap recapture falling off, cap raise, and attrition from the depth guys. If Nemec plays this year or we commit big money to anyone else in addition to Meier, that could all scramble a bunch. The Meier deal and what kind of deals our depth signs this summer will inform a lot of those decisions.

I don’t think Dougie’s deal with be something we’d need to get out of. I think he could still be worth it even if he declines some with where the cap could be. Maybe you get out if it because Casey’s great or maybe you sign Quinn as a UFA which will be when Dougie has one year left

 

[devilsblood]

so for a guy that claims he wants to win and its important to him hes going to sign a "long termish" contract with two teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and would be harder pressed to make them going further?

I'm thinking he mentioned Pitt and Wash as fits from the team perspective.

But you're point is basically in line with pretty much everyone else in that Helle is going to have a hard time finding a team that will give him 8 years. Even more so if going to a winner is important to him.

 

[Hisch13r]

it depends if its a team that isn't contending but just wants to spend money and make a splash like say the yotes or the jackets then yeah sure they would throw stupid money at him. a true contender? chances are they don't have the trade capital or the cap space to fit him so goes to the player whats more important a huge payday non contender or a decent pay day with a contender?

He’d have to be taking like half or nearly half of what he could get for me to be into it. That’s a lot to ask. Only way I could see him being into it is if he wants to go to a contender and he’s willing to bet on himself so if he signs for like 4 years he’d still be worth a good deal when that’s up

 

[JrFischer54]

He’d have to be taking like half or nearly half of what he could get for me to be into it. That’s a lot to ask. Only way I could see him being into it is if he wants to go to a contender and he’s willing to bet on himself so if he signs for like 4 years he’d still be worth a good deal when that’s up

but thats what i mean no one really knows. everyone just throws out the blanket he wants the max term max money deal and yet somehow still wants to be on a contender. i dont really see that happening so there has to be a middle ground somewhere. i'd have no problem at all giving him a 3-5 year deal if he is down for it

 

[Hisch13r]

Basically buying him out in June 2026 instead?

That’d depend on how useful he’d still be and what the rest of the lineup looks like. Like maybe I could stomach that year since you’d still have Nemec on his ELC for 25-26. I could see him being completely cooked by 2025 though and having to move him or buy him out then.

but thats what i mean no one really knows. everyone just throws out the blanket he wants the max term max money deal and yet somehow still wants to be on a contender. i dont really see that happening so there has to be a middle ground somewhere. i'd have no problem at all giving him a 3-5 year deal if he is down for it

To me my maxes are like 8x4 or 7x5. If he’d go for that cool but I just can’t really see him going for it

 

[devilsblood]

I think Palat’s injury really affected his season, I’m totally willing to give him a full off-season of rest to see what’s up. I’m pretty confident he can bounce back.

With that said, that contract can be bought out pretty easily I think? I’m no expert on buyouts but here’s CapFriendly’s buyout calculator results if we buyout Palat in June of 2025:

View attachment 720070

Too early to consider a buyout.

A little surprised the analytics guys don't give him more props actually. xGF% was good this season. And before people say he was carried by Nico and Bratt, he was better away from those guys then with. Was really good with Boq and Haula.

Though not in the playoffs, he was at 70% xGF with Nico. Only around 50% with Hughes.

 

[Devs3cups]

Too early to consider buyout.

A little surprised the analytics guys don't give him more props actually. xGF% was good this season. And before people say he was carried by Nico and Bratt, he was better away from those guys then with. Was really good with Boq and Haula.

Though not in the playoffs, he was at 70% xGF with Nico. Only around 50% with Hughes.

Oh I’m not considering it, I still believe in Palat and I think he can bounce back. I also put value in what he brings in the room.

I was just curious to see how a buyout would play out, I remember people saying his contract was pretty “buyout-able”, seems like that’s true.

 

[BostonDevil]

so for a guy that claims he wants to win and its important to him hes going to sign a "long termish" contract with two teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and would be harder pressed to make them going further?

Wants to win and be closer to home. Translation: Columbus

 

[Bleedred]

I think it's reasonable that Palat will be better this coming year than he was this past year. Maybe not by a ton, but he could be a 40+ point player. I don't expect him to be really good either though.

But his deal is exactly why I don't understand why someone like ROR is being talked about. He's in all likelihood going to get the same deal and he's the same age (and even older mileage wise) and he's also gonna get bonuses for things like his Conn Smythe and being a ''real winner'' and ''knowing how to win'' and dat leadership tho lol.

 

[Smitty426]

Lundqvist was far and away the best goalie of his generation. He also does have a Vezina. He was a finalist 4 other times and one time Hart finalist. Using the “if he played in Columbus” argument is dumb. You can easily flip that as like “if he played in Pittsburgh” we’d literally be talking about this guy as if he’s in the Hasek, Marty, Roy echelon with all the Cups he would’ve won and combine the hard on GMs have for wins and the weight they have with Vezina voting with Lundqvist’s level of dominance and he would’ve won quite a few. Lundqvist’s a clear cut first ballot guy.

Thank you, you made my point! The market the guy played in juiced his exposure. Thats fine too, just realize that majes a difference.
The 2 Gs who went in waited a combined 35 yrs to get in
Vernon was a 2x winner, Conn Smythe winner in 97, Jennings winner and eligible since 2005!!!!!!!!! BTW thats 8 years to get there. Took 18 yrs for a guy who won (an not just cup(s))
Barrasso -Calder winner outta high school, 2x cup winner, Vezina winner. Took 17 years. Hank belongs there but he's no Hasek, Roy, Brodeur, lets be real!

 

[Hisch13r]

I think it's reasonable that Palat will be better this coming year than he was this past year. Maybe not by a ton, but he could be a 40+ point player. I don't expect him to be really good either though.

But his deal is exactly why I don't understand why someone like ROR is being talked about. He's in all likelihood going to get the same deal and he's the same age (and even older mileage wise) and he's also gonna get bonuses for things like his Conn Smythe and being a ''real winner'' and ''knowing how to win'' and dat leadership tho lol.

I’d be more willing to give RoR that deal but that term for him would be a mistake. I think like 7x3 could be somewhat worthwhile for someone but I wouldn’t want to go longer than that. IIRC he was better than his pt totals showed in St Louis this year where he had 19 in 40 and then was productive with Toronto (granted got to play with high end players)

 

[My3Sons]

so for a guy that claims he wants to win and its important to him hes going to sign a "long termish" contract with two teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and would be harder pressed to make them going further?

Wanting to win is a trope. Everyone wants to win. Nobody says they want to lose. It’s essentially meaningless. For these players it’s their job. My point on the contract was actually the take less deal to sign with NJ to try to play for a good team just entering its competitive window. If he signs with Pitt or Wash it’s because they are still coasting on reputation and those teams will give him 8 years in a sign and trade since they are both hoping for two or three more competitive years before the wheels fall off. I’d expect him to opt for thr 8 years rather than playing for thr more competitive team.

 

[Devs3cups]

Nice depth for the bottom pairing?

 

[devilsblood]

I think it's reasonable that Palat will be better this coming year than he was this past year. Maybe not by a ton, but he could be a 40+ point player. I don't expect him to be really good either though.

But his deal is exactly why I don't understand why someone like ROR is being talked about. He's in all likelihood going to get the same deal and he's the same age (and even older mileage wise) and he's also gonna get bonuses for things like his Conn Smythe and being a ''real winner'' and ''knowing how to win'' and dat leadership tho lol.

He was on a 38 point pace this year.

And like I say above his xGF% was really good.

Now he does always miss games, but I think the groin slowed him down more then normal. He could certainly get back to around a 50 pts pace. And then get him a good playoff performance and I'm more then happy.

 

[Hisch13r]

Nice depth for the bottom pairing?

He’s kind of just a guy at this point. Not even really sure he’s better than Smith. I’d rather aim higher. Unless they’re really confident in Nemec taking that 3RD I’d steer clear

 

[devilsblood]

Nice depth for the bottom pairing?

If we were to sign him I assume he'd be playing, not merely a depth guy.

Played PK, though not top unit.

Took a ton of d-zone draws 5v5, but didn't play much vs opposition top lines. On ice #'s don't look great but skewed a bit given his usage.

Offensive #'s dried up relative to year before, when they were OK.


Wouldn't be my first choice, but maybe.

 

[forceten]

I don’t want to give up big assets for Hellebuyck. Not Casey, not Holtz. Holtz mainly because we really need a top 6 forward add. Casey because after him the depth starts to Peter* out (assuming hughes and nemec graduate)

*Not Peter Zezel. Peter Sundstrom

 

[devilsblood]

Old school thought would be a guy like Johnson would be the perfect partner to pair with a rookie like Hughes.

I even think pairing him with Bahl makes for a good defensive pairing, and provides the added benefit of not providing a puck moving safety blanket for whom Bahl would defer to, which I thought was a Bahl weakness last year. Bahl would be the puck mover on that pairing.

I do wonder how much he has left though.

 

[BostonDevil]

We still getting Colton?

 

[Hisch13r]

We still getting Colton?

I’d rather not. He’s looking for 4 and he’s pretty meh. If he wasn’t a Devil fan I don’t think people would be talking about him as much.

 

[Forge]

Nice depth for the bottom pairing?

I don't mind adding him. Still kills penalties, will be cheap and only need a year.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Nice depth for the bottom pairing?

He’d probably be fine on the 3rd pairing. If it was just a cheap 1 year deal, it would be hard to complain. There’s a decent chance Nemec will surpass anyone we bring in by the end of the year.

 

[Devs3cups]

Listened to the last 32 Thoughts with Fitz a few days ago and forgot to share this gem, just found someone mentioning it on Twitter lmao: