Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[njdevils1982]

Yeah...I have come to the point that I don't listen to the words players or management speak... it's all 100% prepackaged, sanitized, combed-over, pre-approved, officially sanctioned, meticulously crafted, public relations gobbledygook.

Every once in a blue moon you might get a nugget....but most of the time it's just an exercise of saying the "right thing"

sounds like something that george carlin would have said

 

[NJDevs26]

Not a bad idea. GM Discussion lmao

Except nobody would use it and all the discussions would start here anyway

 

[NJ DevLolz]

It’s not just hindsight if you look at the complete lack of depth everywhere, but particularly at defense. And the difficulty we would have filling that depth after trading those picks.

Also, if we were a playoff team we would have entered the 2020 TDL already missing our 2020 2nd or 3rd or 2021 2nd.

We also had a thinner prospect pool then we should have because we previously had zero extra 1sts or 2nds under Shero and had used one 2nd in last two drafts (2019 BOS 2nd #61 Okhotiuk).

Getting better costs assets.

I liked how Shero ran our drafts but it was always a bunch of later extra picks. We’re amazingly lucky that we hit as much as we did on these picks (Bratt, Sharangovich, Schmid) but that’s as much as you can hope for in later rounds.

Trading all those 2nds was bad. Sorry, there was no way that Summer of Shero roster had enough depth. You could have expected to get more from Subban, and I didn’t think he was going to be as awful as he was, and know the defense wasn’t there.

I thought we were trading for soon to be UFAs that we would likely flip, if possible, for less assets later, because we weren’t turning around that fast.

Also, I don’t care what fans thought at the time, right or wrong. It’s obviously bad if a GM makes a move everyone on earth sees as a bad at the time and in hindsight looks bad too. But that’s not the only thing that qualifies as bad.

And sorry, we were very bad at time the Summer of Shero, so saying we were likely to stay bad was more realistic. And they felt like moves to keep Hall, which felt dumb.

It’s like defending Dorian’s “win now” moves in Ottawa. Sorry, they don’t make sense without the winning part.

I’m not saying don’t make any trades, part of what’s frustrating is Shero had at least limited himself to trading away a bunch of “extra” picks.

But two of future 2nds, on top 34th pick, when we were just the 3rd worst team in the NHL? I still believe if it was different Metro team’s GM you would be way more critical.

I’ve said this multiple times recently so I’m going to try to stop repeating myself. I swear. I just don’t know why people have an issue with Shero being criticized. We’re successful because the Summer of Shero went tits up, he doesn’t get credit for us rising out of the ashes.

Shero appeared to be a very good executive. He filled out Hockey Management nicely, made some good hires and trades. I don’t think he did a terrible job. I thought he needed to be fired when he was fired though and that seemed to work out for us.

So your solution was to do what? Make every single pick and pray that one or two of those high seconds, who have something like a 25% chance of being a regular and like 5% of being a star, hit? If Shero didn't use those seconds and thirds to get Palms/Mojo/Grabner (failure)/Maroon, this team does not make the playoffs and would have gone 11 years between playoff appearances. How does that effect guys like Nico and Bratt? In 2019, we were entering year 5 of a total rebuild. You can't compile and stockpile picks forever.

 

[Devs3cups]

Except nobody would use it and all the discussions would start here anyway

That’s also true!

 

[Guttersniped]

Shero's moves in a vacuum all looked good to great, then you look at the complete picture and it shows a lack of vision. You compare it to Fitzgerald (in particular in how he built a legit defense with clear thought and planning) and you realize you can't just judge GMs by taking each individual move and giving it a star rating and averaging all their ratings. Like I'm not sure Shero made a move worse than the Palat signing (sorry but it's going worse than expected and might go even more sour, hard to deny), but avoiding bad FA signings in themselves is not the sign of great GMing.

Shero didn’t murder anyone, I don’t hate the guy.

People seem to skip over the point that we would be in Jim Benning-style world if Summer of Shero actually led to bubble team success. And that’s what it’s was supposed to do, that’s why you trade all those picks for players 2-3 years from UFA.

We had no depth. Things were particularly ugly at defense. We were asset poor and would need to move more to address the first two issues. You can only address so many problems with UFAs, the market is limited and good players are expensive. We would have given Hall a giant deal.

And if we don’t trade Hall, Coleman, Vats and Simmonds then no Mercer, Mukhamadullin (therefore Meier), Siegenthaler, Bahl, Foote, Vilén or Daws.

I don’t know what Fitz would have done instead. I don’t feel the need to play Goofus and Gallant with our GMs, with one having to be the hero and the other the heel. Fitz likely learned a lot from watching what happened.

But, holy smokes, Shero deserved to be fired at that point. He dug himself into the ground and we needed a reset from his plan. And there was so much nonsense with Hynes to boot.

It’s not like I pray for a Time Machine so I can get our 2020 2nd back. It was annoying not having it when we sucked and that 2nd round was stacked though.

 

[JimEIV]

He already had jack nico bratt. Because of the Shero moves Fitz had the ammo to get Mercer muk sieg graves Marino

Winning the lottery twice and selecting #1 overall twice is what you want to give Shero credit for? I'm sorry I just don't see it. Literally anyone breathing or or not could've accomplished that.

Drafting Jack Hughes was certainly a turning point in the organizations fortunes...but I just don't have it in me to credit a GM for how ping-pong balls fell out of a machine.

Besides the two #1's overalls we have ONE other player as a top #9 forward, top 5 defender or starting goalie....One! Bratt. Out of roughly 40 picks...One player not a #1OA....that's garbage.

In the most simplistic analysis, I personally believe the Devils were good this year for 1 reason and 1 reason only... Jack Hughes. Period end of story.

Jack producing as a top 10 player and staying healthy enough to play in 78 games is the single biggest reason for the teams success. You can point to million other factors and over analyze until you're blue in the face... without Jack making the quantum leap everything else is moot in my opinion.

But I simply don't see Jack Hughes as a Shero accomplishment.

 

[Nocashstyle]

So how about them 2023/2024 Devils…

 

[Devs3cups]

So how about them 2023/2024 Devils…

Yeah, super excited for the season…

 

[Bleedred]

I didn’t hate the Subban deal, he just wasn’t any good anymore. I don’t think we really knew that before he came. Even his slide the year before was a small sample size and he was only 29 years old.

His tumble off a mountain is actually very much like the one that happened to another elite player at a similar age that we had at a different position.

It would kind of be like if we acquired Cory Schneider in the 2016 and he had 3 years left and all we got was the 16-17 through 18-19 Schneider. No one in the summer of 2016 really saw that coming from Schneider, although he did have core muscle surgery that summer which later turned out to be his hip, as hip issues are often misdiagnosed as groin issues early on. And he did tear something in his knee late the season before that, before returning for a few games, but there was no predicting his huge collapse.

I kind of feel like Subban was the same thing.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I keep forgetting about Nosek. A pretty low key move that I think will end up making a noticeable impact

 

[HBK27]

Shero's moves in a vacuum all looked good to great, then you look at the complete picture and it shows a lack of vision. You compare it to Fitzgerald (in particular in how he built a legit defense with clear thought and planning) and you realize you can't just judge GMs by taking each individual move and giving it a star rating and averaging all their ratings. Like I'm not sure Shero made a move worse than the Palat signing (sorry but it's going worse than expected and might go even more sour, hard to deny), but avoiding bad FA signings in themselves is not the sign of great GMing.

I agree with your overall sentiment, but disagree with the first point.

The Mueller trade was roundly criticized at the time; I know some defended the Grabner trade, but I thought that was awful and an overpay and while the Subban deal was generally well received I hated it at the time because even if the relative value was there in the deal (which is still arguable), it just didn't seem to be a fit for where the team was. Seemed to be a common theme with Shero - trying to accelerate the timeline for the team with rather mixed success.

I generally liked Shero throughout most of his time as GM, though I always hated how he would hand out 2nd and 3rd round picks like candy on Halloween. In hindsight though, he was rather average but we're fortunate the way things turned out - that his "plan" didn't really work and get us stuck in a web of mediocracy and that we were forced into an unintended rebuild and land pillars like Nico, Jack, Luke & Nemec. Yeah, maybe we could've had some additional assets to go along with that had he not traded away so many draft picks...but then again, butterfly effect and all maybe we don't have some of the same top end players and we certainly don't have Fitz and his vision currently at the helm.

So, could be better...could be worse...but given the state of the team today, I'm very happy with how everything has turned out - bumps in the road and all. I just really, really want this team to win a Cup in the next 4 years - I've already gotten to enjoy 3 Cups, which is most than many fans get in a lifetime. But my oldest just started high school a couple weeks ago and it would be really cool to enjoy seeing the Devils raise a Cup while he is still in the house. Both my boys had to suffer through a lot of misery from this franchise in their early years, as my oldest wasn't even 4 years old during the Cup run of 2012. Then again, I grew up with the Devils of the 80's and didn't see them really have much playoff success until I was in high school so that would be some nice symmetry.

Good conversation to have though during late August when there's nothing else going on in the NHL.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I feel guilty for sharing the 2017 rookie camp tweet now.

The Cangy joke was still worth it.

 

[Devs3cups]

I feel guilty for sharing the 2017 rookie camp tweet now.

The Cangy joke was still worth it.

 

[Triumph]

Shero didn’t murder anyone, I don’t hate the guy.

People seem to skip over the point that we would be in Jim Benning-style world if Summer of Shero actually led to bubble team success. And that’s what it’s was supposed to do, that’s why you trade all those picks for players 2-3 years from UFA.

I don't think this is true. The team still has Hughes and Hischier and Bratt. There may be struggles in net and at different positions, but there's still a lot here - navigating it would absolutely be trickier, but there's a lot of what-ifs that come with it.

We had no depth. Things were particularly ugly at defense. We were asset poor and would need to move more to address the first two issues. You can only address so many problems with UFAs, the market is limited and good players are expensive. We would have given Hall a giant deal.

Isn't this how the Devils ended up solving their defense anyway? They traded 2 3rds and Ty Smith and signed a big UFA.

And if we don’t trade Hall, Coleman, Vats and Simmonds then no Mercer, Mukhamadullin (therefore Meier), Siegenthaler, Bahl, Foote, Vilén or Daws.

All fair, but the roster would be totally different.

I don’t know what Fitz would have done instead. I don’t feel the need to play Goofus and Gallant with our GMs, with one having to be the hero and the other the heel. Fitz likely learned a lot from watching what happened.

But, holy smokes, Shero deserved to be fired at that point. He dug himself into the ground and we needed a reset from his plan. And there was so much nonsense with Hynes to boot.

It’s not like I pray for a Time Machine so I can get our 2020 2nd back. It was annoying not having it when we sucked and that 2nd round was stacked though.

Almost nobody thinks Shero shouldn't've been fired. The time to fire a GM trying to save his job is today and that's what the Devils did, for better or worse. Hiring a new guy to be able to step back and look at what the Devils long-term needs were ended up being the right call, by far. Shero, even if he had thought that that's what the franchise needs, wouldn't've been able to do that, because he would've been fired before he could've pulled any of it off.

 

[MartyOwns]

But I simply don't see Jack Hughes as a Shero accomplishment.

of course you don’t lol, you were advocating kakko at the time. at least you don’t see him as a disgrace anymore. honestly i like you, but why anyone gives your opinions any credence i’ll never understand.

 

[Triumph]

Winning the lottery twice and selecting #1 overall twice is what you want to give Shero credit for? I'm sorry I just don't see it. Literally anyone breathing or or not could've accomplished that.

Drafting Jack Hughes was certainly a turning point in the organizations fortunes...but I just don't have it in me to credit a GM for how ping-pong balls fell out of a machine.

Besides the two #1's overalls we have ONE other player as a top #9 forward, top 5 defender or starting goalie....One! Bratt. Out of roughly 40 picks...One player not a #1OA....that's garbage.

In the most simplistic analysis, I personally believe the Devils were good this year for 1 reason and 1 reason only... Jack Hughes. Period end of story.

Jack producing as a top 10 player and staying healthy enough to play in 78 games is the single biggest reason for the teams success. You can point to million other factors and over analyze until you're blue in the face... without Jack making the quantum leap everything else is moot in my opinion.

But I simply don't see Jack Hughes as a Shero accomplishment.

This is risible on its face. The Devils got huge results up and down the lineup - Jack Hughes could've missed every game last year and the Devils still would've made the playoffs, though it would've been much closer. And you want to point to one guy why they were good! It's too funny.

Shero/Castron had 4 drafts, their drafts were successful - they never had any home run drafts but a lot of B- to A- work every year. They never whiffed a draft, and they never whiffed a draft below the 1st round, either. That's solid work.

 

[JimEIV]

So how about them 2023/2024 Devils…

I'm cautious. I could easily see a let down happening. I'm not so sure that this team knows how to win just yet.

Hopefully that's not the case and the trajectory is on the consistent upward path...but it's not unusual for a very good young team to stumble a bit when they are a surprise to no one.

 

[Guttersniped]

So your solution was to do what? Make every single pick and pray that one or two of those high seconds, who have something like a 25% chance of being a regular and like 5% of being a star, hit? If Shero didn't use those seconds and thirds to get Palms/Mojo/Grabner (failure)/Maroon, this team does not make the playoffs and would have gone 11 years between playoff appearances. How does that effect guys like Nico and Bratt? In 2019, we were entering year 5 of a total rebuild. You can't compile and stockpile picks forever.

I see trading picks for RFAs differently because you can resign RFAs even if you’re still bad. That goes for great RFA trades (Palms) and the ones no one liked from the beginning (Mueller).

And all of the early ones were in Shero’s “trading our extra picks” phase.
June 2015: Palms were the 2nd & 3rd from FLA (Jagr)
June 2016: Bennett was 2016 3rd from DET (Zidlicky)
June 2017: Mueller was the 2017 2nd from BOS (Stempniak) & 2017 4th from NSH (Fiddler), we got a 2017 5th in return.
July 2017: Mojo was the 2018 2nd from FLA (Savard) & 2018 3rd from TOR (2015 compensation for Lou lol)

But then we didn’t make any trades and Shero traded four 2nds in a row. How do you not see that’s bizarre for a bottom feeder? His TDL was criticized (rightly) by people who pointed out that we didn’t have the draft resources to make a move like that.

When did we “stockpile picks” under Shero? If Fitz was against “stockpiling picks” we wouldn’t have Mercer now or Mukhamadullin for the Meier trade.

To me, there was a problem with Shero trading every extra 2nd and then four of our own. I think we needed to draft in the 2nd Rd more. Shero’s strategy with picks (until 2018) was quantity not quality.

You need both in rebuilds. The reason you get extra picks, particularly extra early ones, is to take a bunch of extra swings and flood your system with talent. It’s a messy process but when you’re devoid of talent that’s what it takes.

Repeatedly trading 2nds for guys who were 2-3 years from UFA particularly drags out the process. These players aren’t part of the future and at best you might flip them (and some we didn’t).

We’re so f***ing lucky that we won two lotteries and the Summer of Shero didn’t work because he half-assed the rebuild. Yes, old man Lou didn’t leave him with much, but I’ve seen other GM generate assets out very little, while Shero pissed away a bunch. He deserves criticism for his bad asset management.

I’ve run out ways to say the same thing over and over again.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Almost nobody thinks Shero shouldn't've been fired. The time to fire a GM trying to save his job is today and that's what the Devils did, for better or worse. Hiring a new guy to be able to step back and look at what the Devils long-term needs were ended up being the right call, by far. Shero, even if he had thought that that's what the franchise needs, wouldn't've been able to do that, because he would've been fired before he could've pulled any of it off.

I think the majority thought he shouldn't have been fired at the time and he had a LOT of defenders here since he got fired. I think Fitz showing how it's done (with a much deeper prospect pool and no atrocious contracts to be fair) has made a lot of people look back and realize yeah he really had to go. If only for the reason you state, he made his move to make the team competitive, it failed, he had to go and the team needed a fresh start.

 

[JimEIV]

of course you don’t lol, you were advocating kakko at the time. at least you don’t see him as a disgrace anymore. honestly i like you, but why anyone gives your opinions any credence i’ll never understand.

No I wasn't. I never advocated for Kakko, that is completely false. I just didn't understand why the conversation couldn't be had predraft. There was no discussion allowed here a week before the draft on the merits of each player...that is a fact.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I'm cautious. I could easily see a let down happening. I'm not so sure that this team knows how to win just yet.

Hopefully that's not the case and the trajectory is on the consistent upward path...but it's not unusual for a very good young team to stumble a bit when they are a surprise to no one.

I think they may have a less consistent season; especially with the expectations so high, but I fully expect them to make the playoffs….and that’s all you need to do.

 

[Devs3cups]

I think they may have a less consistent season; especially with the expectations so high, but I fully expect them to make the playoffs….and that’s all you need to do.

Was going to post just this lol.

 

[Devils731]

No I wasn't. I never advocated for Kakko, that is completely false. I just didn't understand why the conversation couldn't be had predraft. There was no discussion allowed here a week before the draft on the merits of each player...that is a fact.

There was constant discussion on why there was no discussion allowed, so basically the same thing.

All the same discussion took place but it all started with “I don’t understand why I can’t state <proceeds to make the statement that was just said can’t be made>”

 

[JimEIV]

I think they may have a less consistent season; especially with the expectations so high, but I fully expect them to make the playoffs….and that’s all you need to do.

I just think the Defense, at the very best is going to at least take some time to adjust to the loss of Severson and Graves...at worst it could be a problem...

Then it's tough to invision the offense duplicating or surpassing last years output.

My concern is even a marginal drop in offense will magnify a less experienced defense.

 

[Triumph]

I think the majority thought he shouldn't have been fired at the time and he had a LOT of defenders here since he got fired. I think Fitz showing how it's done (with a much deeper prospect pool and no atrocious contracts to be fair) has made a lot of people look back and realize yeah he really had to go. If only for the reason you state, he made his move to make the team competitive, it failed, he had to go and the team needed a fresh start.

I think people were mad that he was fired at the time he was, but that he was on the hot seat was not really questioned. He'd made a bunch of moves in the offseason and almost none of them worked. I agree that a lot of people, probably including me, were not sure it was time for him to go, but that's the thing, GM firings should be early rather than late - that is, assuming ownership has a plan in mind.