Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Cheddabombs]

NEED TIMO

A bit rude of him to not sign yet tbh

 

[Forge]

It's not this year I'm worried about, it's the next three years when we have to start signing Mercer, L. Hughes, Holtz, Schmid etc. coming off their ELCs.

It's a relatively safe assumption, but not a sure thing, that the cap will jump next year. If it doesn't, and we signed someone for 2+ years at any mid-high AAV, we suddenly might find ourselves squeezed trying to get Mercer, Schmid, and potentially Foote or Clarke needing raises, along with Smith out of contract as well. That's why any addition we make to the forward corps needs to be on a 1 year deal. I just don't see the point in potentially making a cap crunch occur 2-3 years before it needs to to add to the forwards when we already have a presumptive surplus of forwards for 14 roster spots. Maybe that changes if we start trading guys off that are unexpected but we'll see.

O'Rielly is one of the best forwards available, has cup experience, and is still young and productive enough to where GMs will convince themselves the contract won't be a boat anchor. He's a classic overpay candidate. Maybe the stars align where he thinks it's better to do a 1 or 2 year deal to go cup chasing and decides we're a good option, but otherwise I'm not getting my hopes up.

Agreed. Even if the cap jumps next year, let's be real....that money is mostly, if not entirely gone already if we want to sign mercer to 7-8 years. He's going to get between 7-8 aav on that type of deal, I would wager.

 

[Nubmer6]

Didn’t we have to file for arbitration or make a qualifying offer some time soon? I’m vague on the process.

We filed for club-elected arbitration on the 15th, which could potentially reduce his qualifying offer by as much as 15% (down to 8.5M). The arbitration wouldn't happen until the beginning of August, and it's a fallback position. Otherwise we would have needed to tender a qualifying offer (of $10M/1 year) by July 1, and he could have just accepted and walked in to free agency next year.

The club elected arbitration buys us time to hammer out a deal and sets a deadline (in case we need it).

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[SJinNewJersey]

A bit rude of him to not sign yet tbh

 

[Guttersniped]

I think Mogilny is going to get in sooner rather than later. I think that there is a nearly deafening groundswell of support for his inclusion not just because of his on ice contributions but because of the importance of his defection.

Patty will almost certainly get in sooner or later. Look at the main board and see how many people are saying Kessel is a HOFer. I mean, Patty is just a flat out better player. I can get why some people who are "small hall" types wouldn't let him in, but the hockey HOF is not a "small hall" so I expect him to be in eventually.

Patty’s biggest issue is no hardware, not the logo on his jersey. Each Sedin has some (Daniel: Ross/Pearson, Henrik: Hart).

Alfredsson only has a Calder, Clancy and Messier and no Cups (but that’s hardware), his Captaincy and international medals are doing some heavy lifting too.

It’s not Elias’ fault he’s not Swedish and he was too young to make the team Hasek willed to an Olympic gold medal.

Elias’ playoff production is pretty damn impressive considering his lack of star line-mates. The last Cup run at 35 drags down his playoff numbers which were sparkling, particularly for our Cup runs in the dead puck era.

Mogilny not getting in yet is apparently due to politics. I don’t understand it, but that’s what’s supposedly going on there.

Maybe Elias being around while we came back from the dead gets him some attention in a weak class (minus Henrik). It’s a very Canadian based voting group, I don’t know if there’s any ties that help him. It’s also a mostly f***ing ancient group.

Maybe Brind’Amour’s personal ties helps with the voting group. He played with Francis (Canes) and Gartner (Team Canada).

Here’s the committee

The Athletic writers took their vote:

Here’s the article. Yes, no Elias, boo hiss.

Good to see Keith’s sperm getting votes, very topical.

I’m not going to even discuss the Hall’s bizarre refusal to let in goalies, this board cannot contain such rage lol.

Gonchar (1992, retired 2015) is an interesting candidate. There’s Niedermayer (1991, class of 2013), Pronger (1993, class of 2015) and Chara (1996, class of 2025), and then a shocking void in defensive nominees for about a decade.

No obvious first ballot candidates has led to some randomness: Housley (1982, retired 2003, class of 2015), Zubov (1990, retired 2009, class of 2019), Wilson (1977, retired 1993, class of 2020), Lowe (1979, retired 1998, class of 2020).

(I’m no hater, all the these guys were fine additions, other than Lowe. The writer on HHofF site is straining themselves trying to sell it with Lowe’s bio. They’re reduced to discussing his 1st goal lol. (It was the Oilers 1st ever goal as NHL franchise! Exciting stuff.)

1994 starts a string of disappointing draft classes (with the exception of Chara) that produce a legion of also rans. Chris Phillips, JovoCop, Redden, Bouwmeester, etc. The only obvious pre-2003 Hall of Famer is Duncan Keith (2002, class of 2025).

Then the class of 2003 hits and the possible defensive candidates start coming in hot, including the incredible 2008 class (which doesn’t even have Hedman). There’s so many good defensemen after that too, it’s basically an embarrassment of riches.

I feel like ROR might get something similar to what Palat got last year.

He’s projected for it, we were on the generous side for term obviously.

 

[Bleedred]

ROR is also an OLD 32, as I'm pretty sure he's been in the league since he was 18?

This is exactly the type of player we've seen fall apart at a similar age and many times younger.

He could fall off like Wayne Simmonds or someone like that as soon as this year. He may have already done that last year. He was closer to a PPG (though not quite) with Toronto in small sample size in both the regular season and playoffs, but he was basically a 40 point player in St. Louis this year.

Wouldn't be surprised if this is a 40-45 point player going forward, much like Palat last year.

He also won a Conn Smythe 4 years ago and will likely make a few bucks because of that.

 

[Guttersniped]

Yes wonder what’s holding it up and how much longer it will take for the board to start obsessing over it. Didn’t we have to file for arbitration or make a qualifying offer some time soon? I’m vague on the process.

No we filed for arbitration so we have plenty of time before that’s an issue since hearings aren’t scheduled until late July.

We likely want to get it done before the draft and/or free agency, so before June 28th and/or July 1st.

 

[Zacha37]

 

[MasterofGrond]

Yeah I’d happily take helle for one year at a fair one year price. But that’s just not in the cards because some other moron GM is gonna give him a big fat extension

Or some GM will panic and give an insane rental price.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Seems like the Blackwood era is officially coming to an end. All though it was an age of mediocre goaltending. It was a transition period to the golden age of light.

It’s not without regret that I say , for the last time, thank you MacKenzie Blackwood.




So, as you don the jersey of your new team, know that a part of New Jersey will always be with you. We look forward to the day we meet you again on the ice, even if you’ll be on the opposite side. We’ll cheer a little softer, perhaps, but we will never forget what you’ve done for us, and for that, we’ll always cheer for you.

lmao what the hell

he sucks and good riddance to him

 

[bossram]

Good. Stay away. Absolute no-go on the trade and re-signing cost.

 

[youryeah]

nice to hear the devils are a team someone from outside the org would want to sign with long-term. my, my we have come a long way :^)

unless he's saying it cause we have a little cap space!

 

[Bleedred]

lmao what the hell

he sucks and good riddance to him

I enjoyed his first two years here and he had a great stretch there, but I'm convinced that was smoke and mirrors like Andrew Hammond in 2015. We've seen plenty of bad goalies have hot streaks in the NHL. Sometimes they even happen in the playoffs. Once in a while they last a couple of years. I'm pretty sure that was Blackwood, especially considering his mediocre AHL career that happened before he started playing full time in the NHL.

I think I'll dislike him much less when he's not here anymore. Every so many days I still feel like I read a post about people being okay with him coming back, as long as it's not at his qualifying offer.

I'm pretty sure he isn't a good goaltender at the NHL level. I'm also happy I won't have to hear about this finally being the year he bounces back. People are turning into skeletons waiting for that to happen.

He may have another good season in the NHL again, because rando hot streaks and up years happen all the time, but I'm also very sure he won't consistently have good seasons in the NHL again. He'll probably have a fairly long leash of getting to stay in the NHL because of those 18-19 and 19-20 seasons.

 

[Bleedred]

If we were as close off as Colorado was in 21-22, I would LOVE to go for broke on a one and done with Hellebuyck, like Colorado did with Kuemper.

Kuemper turned out to be not much help at all, after getting his eye poked out, but I think the idea was to never re-up him and just go for it with him as a one year rental.

I'd love to take a shot at it with him, but I have no interest in him on a new deal for that much. His best days will be over.

 

[Guttersniped]

Believe it or not, if we sign Meier to a $8.25 - $8.75 million contract, and re-sign Haul to a $2.5 mil contract, and even make a trade for Colton and sign him to a ~$3 million contract, we will still have about $7 million to fill out 1-2 roster spots.

We could easily fit 1 more large contract.

See below an example of a lineup that includes Ryan O'Reilly. And in this example I was pretty liberal with the Meier, Bastian, McLeod, O'Reilly, and Colton contracts. I think the AAV on all 5 of them could end up being lower than I priced them at in this example.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I think Meier could come in at $8.25M or $8.5M instead of $8.75M.
I think Bastian could come in under $1M. Maybe like $975K.
I think McLeod could come in at $1.5M.
I think Colton could come in at $3M even.
And I think O'Reilly could be had at an AAV range starting in the 4s if you give him an extra year on the contract. Something like 4x$4.5

Your guess for Meier seems ok, but we just don’t know if he’ll go under 9m yet.

You don’t have us spending anything on defense, not sure that happens either.

McLeod could go in a lot of directions. It could go from him not be on the team anymore to him getting locked up for a couple of years (which means more than 1.75m), it depends on what happens with the Hockey Canada. There’s supposedly something finally coming out soon, right?

Haula being eager to sign a team friendly deal doesn’t mean he won’t get a raise, he’s getting at least 3m.

I just don’t see the team committing to another big +5m deal, particularly to another older player. We need flexibility if they want to give Mercer a long term deal.

You want a cheaper bottom six. I get that you’re trying to solve our 3rd line, and it’s a conundrum, but ROR is a bit cooked already too.

 

[MadDevil]

If we were closer to the end of our contention window then the beginning I'd think about doing Hellebuyck strictly as a rental, but no way I'm doing that now and then re-signing him to a big contract.

 

[MB3]

just for fun — what is the cost of acquiring Hellebyuk as a one year rental? Are we talking Holtz/Casey+?

 

[Andre Palot]

9.5 per for Helly screams future buyout.

I rather just stand pat.

 

[Lou is God]

just for fun — what is the cost of acquiring Hellebyuk as a one year rental? Are we talking Holtz/Casey+?

Too start probably. He's not going to be cheap.

 

[Dylan9z9]

Peter Chirelli might be the GM for the Penguins maybe we can get Sidney Crosby for Adam Graves

 

[Devils731]

I find it fun to have big name minority partners just for the goofs.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Peter Chirelli might be the GM for the Penguins maybe we can get Sidney Crosby for Adam Graves

Adam Graves has 2 cups, might be a good deal for Pittsburgh.

 

[Blackjack]

Good. Stay away. Absolute no-go on the trade and re-signing cost.

Yeah, I’m glad he wants crazy money. If he wanted like $6-7 million over seven years I’d be afraid that Fitz would consider it.

 

[Devs3cups]

Good on Fitz for informing himself and leaving no stones unturned. It's just not his type of move though. Most moves/signings Fitz has done have had some good logic behind them and have kept the future in mind, really doubt we end up with Hellebuyck.