Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023 offseason part II

[Brodeur]

Someone none of us are talking about....

How about Ryan O'Reilly?

Probably his last 'big' contract, so he might not fit with us. Seems like a few other teams who are more center needy.

Columbus - Maybe a tough sell, but they will need a center even if they get Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith next week.
Minnesota - Definitely need a center, but still in Suter/Parise cap purgatory.
Nashville - Dunno if they're rebuilding or retooling.
Seattle - They were searching for a faceoff ace last year.
Toronto - Hometown discount?

 

[Nocashstyle]

No, Amanda, he won’t.

I get that in her capacity she’s not going to write (or tweet) about how a two-time cup winner who was one of the top players at his position for more than a decade, who scored huge goals in the playoffs and got up off his deathbed to carry his team to a division, is on the outside looking in because of the crest he wore and no other reason, but in this one case I really really just wish she could leave it alone. It’s a sore spot.

Odd to get that upset about a tweet

 

[Zippy316]

Someone none of us are talking about....

How about Ryan O'Reilly?

Haula, if resigned, fills that role for us, is a better fit with his speed, and should come at a far cheaper price.

It’s an interesting thought though. O’Reilly taking over Tatar’s spot on the roster would make us exceptionally strong down the middle. Just don’t see the Devils offering what it would take for him to come here.

Meier - Hughes - Mercer
Palat - Hischier - Bratt
Haula - O’Reilly - Holtz/Clarke
Foote - McLeod - Bastian
Boqvist - Lazar

But honestly who knows, Devils are slowly becoming a desirable team to be a part of again, maybe O’Reilly wants to come here

 

[OlfactoryHughes]

Haula, if resigned, fills that role for us, is a better fit with his speed, and should come at a far cheaper price.

It’s an interesting thought though. O’Reilly taking over Tatar’s spot on the roster would make us exceptionally strong down the middle. Just don’t see the Devils offering what it would take for him to come here.

Meier - Hughes - Mercer
Palat - Hischier - Bratt
Haula - O’Reilly - Holtz/Clarke
Foote - McLeod - Bastian
Boqvist - Lazar

But honestly who knows, Devils are slowly becoming a desirable team to be a part of again, maybe O’Reilly wants to come here

As unlikely as ROR is, IF he did come to NJ, probably means Haula doesn’t get re-upped and we’re plugging boquist in on the wing with him.

 

[Forge]

No, Amanda, he won’t.

I get that in her capacity she’s not going to write (or tweet) about how a two-time cup winner who was one of the top players at his position for more than a decade, who scored huge goals in the playoffs and got up off his deathbed to carry his team to a division, is on the outside looking in because of the crest he wore and no other reason, but in this one case I really really just wish she could leave it alone. It’s a sore spot.

I think Mogilny is going to get in sooner rather than later. I think that there is a nearly deafening groundswell of support for his inclusion not just because of his on ice contributions but because of the importance of his defection.

Patty will almost certainly get in sooner or later. Look at the main board and see how many people are saying Kessel is a HOFer. I mean, Patty is just a flat out better player. I can get why some people who are "small hall" types wouldn't let him in, but the hockey HOF is not a "small hall" so I expect him to be in eventually.

Probably his last 'big' contract, so he might not fit with us. Seems like a few other teams who are more center needy.

Columbus - Maybe a tough sell, but they will need a center even if they get Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith next week.
Minnesota - Definitely need a center, but still in Suter/Parise cap purgatory.
Nashville - Dunno if they're rebuilding or retooling.
Seattle - They were searching for a faceoff ace last year.
Toronto - Hometown discount?

Yeah, expectation on an ROR contract is probably something close to Palat's deal last year.

I'd say he gets 6 for 5 on the high end, maybe 4 @ 5.5 on a lower end.

Neither of those are particularly enticing for the Devils, imo.

 

[Bleedred]

The fact that guys like Carbonneau and Lowe are in is a joke. I can think of way better players that aren't in.

I've argued in the past that Rod Brind'Amour should be in and with Carbonneau going in, I'm surprised Rod hasn't gotten in yet. It did take both Carbonneau and Lowe a really long time after retiring to get in though.

I'm currently awaiting for the Adam Graves induction this year. That'll no doubt get me Baker Acted.

 

[Zippy316]

As unlikely as ROR is, IF he did come to NJ, probably means Haula doesn’t get re-upped and we’re plugging boquist in on the wing with him.

Fair enough, I just think Haula is re-signed before UFA. They need that ROR/Haula type, so I don’t think they risk waiting until July 1st for an answer. I think the Devils would just treat ROR as a bonus if he were to join the team.

 

[Bleedred]

One more thing I wanna say on the Travis Green to potentially replace Lindy Ruff thing, I don't think he's a sure fire bet to be the next coach, though if Ruff were to get canned midseason there's no doubt in my mind he'd be the interim, but maybe not the permanent replacement.

Sometimes teams do bring in former head coaches to be assistant and still pass them over when they hire a new head coach. Like when the Rangers hired Lindy Ruff to be assistant and didn't even make him head coach when they fired AV the very next year.

Maybe they would have if they weren't ''Rebuilding'' or whatever it was, when they decided to go with David Quinn, as Ruff would have been exactly the type of head coach the Rangers like to hire. Someone with a lot of experience/a big name.

They instead opted to keep him on as an assistant to Quinn.

Andrew Brunette was very obviously going to be the next head coach, as Ruff entered the season on the hot seat. He won't be entering this season on the hot seat, but I also don't think he's here for at least 2 more years, no matter what happens, as was said when I suggested he would be fired if we don't make the playoffs next year.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Intriguing if there is a way to make the salary work, but the market for him is likely to be too high to make sense for us. Tough to imagine him accepting a 1 or two year deal which is basically all we can afford to sign on another big dollar contract unless we don't re-sign Meier.

I don't think we can afford him. I'm thinking he's not signing 1 x 3 or something.

Probably his last 'big' contract, so he might not fit with us. Seems like a few other teams who are more center needy.

Columbus - Maybe a tough sell, but they will need a center even if they get Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith next week.
Minnesota - Definitely need a center, but still in Suter/Parise cap purgatory.
Nashville - Dunno if they're rebuilding or retooling.
Seattle - They were searching for a faceoff ace last year.
Toronto - Hometown discount?

Haula, if resigned, fills that role for us, is a better fit with his speed, and should come at a far cheaper price.

It’s an interesting thought though. O’Reilly taking over Tatar’s spot on the roster would make us exceptionally strong down the middle. Just don’t see the Devils offering what it would take for him to come here.

Meier - Hughes - Mercer
Palat - Hischier - Bratt
Haula - O’Reilly - Holtz/Clarke
Foote - McLeod - Bastian
Boqvist - Lazar

But honestly who knows, Devils are slowly becoming a desirable team to be a part of again, maybe O’Reilly wants to come here

Believe it or not, if we sign Meier to a $8.25 - $8.75 million contract, and re-sign Haul to a $2.5 mil contract, and even make a trade for Colton and sign him to a ~$3 million contract, we will still have about $7 million to fill out 1-2 roster spots.

We could easily fit 1 more large contract.

See below an example of a lineup that includes Ryan O'Reilly. And in this example I was pretty liberal with the Meier, Bastian, McLeod, O'Reilly, and Colton contracts. I think the AAV on all 5 of them could end up being lower than I priced them at in this example.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I think Meier could come in at $8.25M or $8.5M instead of $8.75M.
I think Bastian could come in under $1M. Maybe like $975K.
I think McLeod could come in at $1.5M.
I think Colton could come in at $3M even.
And I think O'Reilly could be had at an AAV range starting in the 4s if you give him an extra year on the contract. Something like 4x$4.5

 

[Bleedred]

I feel like ROR might get something similar to what Palat got last year.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I feel like ROR might get something similar to what Palat got last year.

Definitely possible

 

[Mgd31]

We are already on the hook for Palat for another 4 years, which we will probably have to buy out in 2 years.

No interest in adding another contract like that. If O'Reilly wants a 1-2 year deal, sure. But no interest in a 4-5 year contract for him.

 

[Zippy316]

I feel like ROR might get something similar to what Palat got last year.

I don’t think this will be the case. Palat’s career earnings were only ~40 million coming off some favorable contracts in Tampa. O’Reilly is up at 72.5 million going into this off-season.

Don’t think O’Reilly necessarily needs to chase the biggest pay day as much as Palat did.

 

[MasterofGrond]

ROR is already 32 and has almost 1100 NHL games on him.

No interest there from me.

 

[Oneiro]

I don’t think you can really bank on cup chasing from a player in his early 30s with his profile, having already won. Some GM is going to make that mistake.

 

[Coffees]

Seems like the Blackwood era is officially coming to an end. All though it was an age of mediocre goaltending. It was a transition period to the golden age of light.

It’s not without regret that I say , for the last time, thank you MacKenzie Blackwood.




So, as you don the jersey of your new team, know that a part of New Jersey will always be with you. We look forward to the day we meet you again on the ice, even if you’ll be on the opposite side. We’ll cheer a little softer, perhaps, but we will never forget what you’ve done for us, and for that, we’ll always cheer for you.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I liked Mac a lot. Sad it didn't work out for him here. I hope he goes on to thrive elsewhere.

 

[Forge]

Believe it or not, if we sign Meier to a $8.25 - $8.75 million contract, and re-sign Haul to a $2.5 mil contract, and even make a trade for Colton and sign him to a ~$3 million contract, we will still have about $7 million to fill out 1-2 roster spots.

We could easily fit 1 more large contract.

See below an example of a lineup that includes Ryan O'Reilly. And in this example I was pretty liberal with the Meier, Bastian, McLeod, O'Reilly, and Colton contracts. I think the AAV on all 5 of them could end up being lower than I priced them at in this example.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I think Meier could come in at $8.25M or $8.5M instead of $8.75M.
I think Bastian could come in under $1M. Maybe like $975K.
I think McLeod could come in at $1.5M.
I think Colton could come in at $3M even.
And I think O'Reilly could be had at an AAV range starting in the 4s if you give him an extra year on the contract. Something like 4x$4.5

I'm really not looking to burn all my immediate cap flexibility on the dying careers of ROR and palat and carrying haula. That's like 13-14 million right there.

I also think your numbers are slightly optimistic. Contract projections on Bastian are closer to 1.5m. Mikey is closer to 2. Maybe you get a discount on ror in the right term, but I think the 4s is still low.

I don’t think this will be the case. Palat’s career earnings were only ~40 million coming off some favorable contracts in Tampa. O’Reilly is up at 72.5 million going into this off-season.

Don’t think O’Reilly necessarily needs to chase the biggest pay day as much as Palat did.

Doesn't need to chase a cup either though. I'm not banking on him taking a discount to play.

 

[Bcap88]

Hard pass on ROR

32 years old already

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Seems like the Blackwood era is officially coming to an end. All though it was an age of mediocre goaltending. It was a transition period to the golden age of light.

It’s not without regret that I say , for the last time, thank you MacKenzie Blackwood.




So, as you don the jersey of your new team, know that a part of New Jersey will always be with you. We look forward to the day we meet you again on the ice, even if you’ll be on the opposite side. We’ll cheer a little softer, perhaps, but we will never forget what you’ve done for us, and for that, we’ll always cheer for you.

where'd you see this?

 

[MasterofGrond]

NEED TIMO

 

[Camille the Eel]

NEED TIMO

Yes wonder what’s holding it up and how much longer it will take for the board to start obsessing over it. Didn’t we have to file for arbitration or make a qualifying offer some time soon? I’m vague on the process.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Believe it or not, if we sign Meier to a $8.25 - $8.75 million contract, and re-sign Haul to a $2.5 mil contract, and even make a trade for Colton and sign him to a ~$3 million contract, we will still have about $7 million to fill out 1-2 roster spots.

We could easily fit 1 more large contract.

See below an example of a lineup that includes Ryan O'Reilly. And in this example I was pretty liberal with the Meier, Bastian, McLeod, O'Reilly, and Colton contracts. I think the AAV on all 5 of them could end up being lower than I priced them at in this example.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I think Meier could come in at $8.25M or $8.5M instead of $8.75M.
I think Bastian could come in under $1M. Maybe like $975K.
I think McLeod could come in at $1.5M.
I think Colton could come in at $3M even.
And I think O'Reilly could be had at an AAV range starting in the 4s if you give him an extra year on the contract. Something like 4x$4.5

It's not this year I'm worried about, it's the next three years when we have to start signing Mercer, L. Hughes, Holtz, Schmid etc. coming off their ELCs.

It's a relatively safe assumption, but not a sure thing, that the cap will jump next year. If it doesn't, and we signed someone for 2+ years at any mid-high AAV, we suddenly might find ourselves squeezed trying to get Mercer, Schmid, and potentially Foote or Clarke needing raises, along with Smith out of contract as well. That's why any addition we make to the forward corps needs to be on a 1 year deal. I just don't see the point in potentially making a cap crunch occur 2-3 years before it needs to to add to the forwards when we already have a presumptive surplus of forwards for 14 roster spots. Maybe that changes if we start trading guys off that are unexpected but we'll see.

O'Rielly is one of the best forwards available, has cup experience, and is still young and productive enough to where GMs will convince themselves the contract won't be a boat anchor. He's a classic overpay candidate. Maybe the stars align where he thinks it's better to do a 1 or 2 year deal to go cup chasing and decides we're a good option, but otherwise I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[Devs3cups]

Yes wonder what’s holding it up and how much longer it will take for the board to start obsessing over it. Didn’t we have to file for arbitration or make a qualifying offer some time soon? I’m vague on the process.

Bratt signed about 5 days ago and Fitz mentioned talking to Meier like the day before the signing and him wanting to extend long-term. I’m sure talks are ongoing as we speak and we’ll get a feel for how things are going in the next 1-1.5 weeks. I don’t see this dragging very long.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Possibly the most overblown thing around the league. Wow a guy who was the head coach previously of another team was hired as teams assistant coach over a year later. Like any occupation experience carry’s weight. Yet there’s never nearly as many retreads as people make out there is


Of the current 32 head coaches, 18 are first time NHL head coaches. As in have never been the head coach of another team. That’s 56%. Does include guys like Brunette who have been interim coaches (not sure if there’s anyone other than him that’s done that).

That’s a pretty damn good percentage. Given how valued experience is, especially in high paying positions of importance. People whining about retreads are just being dumb.

It's less about him or his impact to the team as it is just, blah. The same 30 guys just seem to cycle around the league. Your point about experience meaning something is very valid. It's true it should count for something. It's just boring in this case for me as a fan, that's all. I don't care that much.