New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats
Here’s a nice little chart that lays everything out
Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part III
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Here’s a nice little chart that lays everything out
Billdo
Registered User
Welp assuming Siegenthaler gets in sooner than later I fully expect them to move Smith to LW4 and roll with Bahl-Nemec, Hughes-Marino, Siegenthaler-Miller for a bit while scratching Holtz.
I don't think he will get there. He can certainly improve, but different people have different bodies and different centers of gravity and skate differently. I don't think Jack will ever be as strong on his skates as Bratt even though they are the same height.
guitarguyvic
Registered User
- Mar 31, 2010
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There is a lot wrong with your entire premise.
First off - with regards to the bolded - you don't actually know this. In order to assess how "meaningless" goals scored in the third period while down are, you would need to pull data to see the win/loss rate of teams that do it. In other words, if a team goes into the third period down 4-2 but then makes it 4-3, how often is that team making the full comeback? Basic common sense would tell you that a comeback win is much more likely in that scenario than if the gap remained -2 or got bigger.
Secondly, as I've pointed out numerous times already and you've failed to address - looking at how often the team goes down 1-0 or enters the third period trailing tells us absolutely nothing about WHY they gave up the first goal or are entering the third period trailing. All it shows is that the team hasn't played well enough early in the game to be leading. Additional conclusions cannot be drawn without a ton of additional team and player performance context which you are completely leaving out.
Lastly, your implication that the Devils score some inordinate amount of "meaningless" goals is baseless without knowing how often they are doing it in relation to other teams.
I'd also like to point out that identifying goals as "meaningless" is just as subjective and nebulous as calling goals "stoppable" or games "winnable". I don't think you hold any high ground there.
You want to talk about meaningless goals? This entire exercise of yours qualifies.
JK3
Go Easy-Step Lightly-Stay Free
JimEIV
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2003
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Of course winning when down by 1 going into the 3rd is more likely than 3...no one ever said anything different.
But they are ALL low probability wins.
Look at Vancouver the best team in the league 30-0-1 when leading after two
2-8-1 when trailing after 2. So the best team, one of the highest scoring teams, is getting 2 out of 11 when trailing going into the third? Not great.
Call Me Al
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2017
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the mediocre devils (the team we are actually discussing) have 7 wins when trailing after 2, out of 25 games where we’ve trailed. that’s a full 25% of our total wins and a 30% of all games we’re tailing going into the third we end up winning so what exactly are you talking about? who gives a shit about vancouver?
JimEIV
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2003
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True. highest in the league. Not a good thing and very much an anomaly. The bigger issue is we are trailing going into the 3rd in about half of our games. So winning 7 is no achievement.
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HughesCorporation
in the box
- Jan 27, 2023
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thanks prediction as of now we dont make it.. very little margin of error ...all must wins
philly
wash
lightning
Ottawa
isles
pitt
all west coast
My assumption is Miller will be the one to sit, given he was filling in for Marino at practice. I think Smith's PK work continues to earn him a spot over Miller despite being worse at everything else.
- Dec 20, 2018
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Here’s MoneyPuck odds during the Sharks game.
They give us slightly less than 25% chance after the pulling within 1 early in the 3rd. Obviously our need for another goal hurts our chances but we had a lot of time to get one. That’s not being out of game to me.
The back breaker was the 4th goal, Schmid gave up 5 goals on 17 shots, it’s hard to win with a goalie performance like that.
We scored again and then they scored their 5 goal 5 seconds later but a comeback with 7 minutes is a lot tougher.
And tying the game to get it to OT is a positive even if we lose, we’re in the spot we’re in partly because we have so few loser points.
We had these failed comebacks where we got within 1 goal multiple times because we had some real bad goaltending at times. Team defense contributed at times too our offense has had ups and down points as well, that‘s hockey for ya.
JimEIV
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- Feb 19, 2003
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Silliness pure silliness. Before our 2nd goal we were a 2% chance to win. The game was already lost.Here’s MoneyPuck odds during the Sharks game.
They give us slightly less than 25% chance after the pulling within 1 early in the 3rd. Obviously our need for another goal hurts our chances but we had a lot of time to get one. That’s not being out of game to me.
The back breaker was the 4th goal, Schmid gave up 5 goals on 17 shots, it’s hard to win with a goalie performance like that.
We scored again and then they scored their 5 goal 5 seconds later but a comeback with 7 minutes is a lot tougher.
And tying the game to get it to OT is a positive even if we lose, we’re in the spot we’re in partly because we have so few loser points.
We had these failed comebacks where we got within 1 goal multiple times because we had some real bad goaltending at times. Team defense contributed at times too our offense has had ups and down points as well, that‘s hockey for ya.
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R8Devs
1-5-6-12
Canes based on what Waddell said to Lebrun are probably not in the Saros race.
Looking at Nashville's d core I wonder if something like Casey, 1st round pick, and Bahl would get them to move Saros. They don't have a high end rhd in their system so Casey fits that bill, Devils 1st round pick if it goes to Nashville this year would most likely be top 20 which is pretty high and otherwise if it goes to the Sharks it would be an unprotected 2025 pick. Bahl gives them a big and young player on their left side d which at the moment is really old (youngest right now is 33) and they don't really have any big d-man in their prospect pool that's close to the NHL either.
Looking at Nashville's d core I wonder if something like Casey, 1st round pick, and Bahl would get them to move Saros. They don't have a high end rhd in their system so Casey fits that bill, Devils 1st round pick if it goes to Nashville this year would most likely be top 20 which is pretty high and otherwise if it goes to the Sharks it would be an unprotected 2025 pick. Bahl gives them a big and young player on their left side d which at the moment is really old (youngest right now is 33) and they don't really have any big d-man in their prospect pool that's close to the NHL either.
JK3
Go Easy-Step Lightly-Stay Free
Looks like it's working but it's pretty low res, better than nothing I guess. The higher ups know about it so hopefully they can get it sorted.
Cheddabombs
Status Quo
- Mar 13, 2012
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Unknown Caller
Registered User
- Apr 30, 2009
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It depends on the model. The Athletic model was way down on the Devils at their low point and now it's basically a coin flip to get in.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
Could definitely see that
I think that they just wait until the off season when the goalie market may have more potential buyers. Same for Markstrom. I don't think either is going to move in season
Wish nhl still did the hbo 24/7
You have to think they have inside info with brunette being the coach as well
- Dec 20, 2018
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Yep, not sure why any team bothers trying in the 3rd period if they ever trailed by more that one at any point in the game, that’s just statistics.
Doesn’t matter when they score again, that doesn’t affect probability at all.
For shi** and giggles. If Nashville insists on Mercer, I’d be adamant about Casey not being involved in a deal for Saros. I have no qualms about trading our 2024 1st round pick (if we have it) or 2025 1st. But sorry…you’re not getting Mercer AND Casey.
pucksandpitchforks.com
The Devils Should Be Going For Juuse Saros
The goaltending market is continuing to heat up in the NHL as the trade deadline approaches and it continues to look like teams will be making moves early this
pucksandpitchforks.com
theoptimist
Trade Siegenthaler
- Apr 22, 2014
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Happiness begins with low expectations.
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