Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part III

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

This whole pictures not working thing is greatly impacting my ability to meme

The cooked M&M smiley got the meme pics covered for a bit lmao

 

[NjDevsRR]

Marino sick but expected to travel to Washington

 

[JimEIV]

That’s not a meaningless goal? Not all 2 goal leads are the same so rambling about “10% chance to win” is the meaningless part.

There were some winnable games on that list of 12, which made some of those goals not meaningless in any real sense.

That San Jose game is an example of you being wrong. That’s the point. You were wrong.

You are literally calling losses winnable. Can't make this up

That sounds like a good fan talking.

San Jose is example of me being wrong? They lost the game what are you talking about you like the fact that they lost closer? That's a hoot.

Most teams don't lose when winning going into the 3rd with a lead...it's just a fact.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

View attachment 822225

What happens when you go with just a wife beater in 20 degrees weather, I bet his mom had the "I told you" look when she found out lmao

 

[Cheddabombs]

The cooked M&M smiley got the meme pics covered for a bit lmao

I'm being silenced!

 

[njdevil26]

Wondering what happens on defense now. Hard to say we don't need Smith after his game on Saturday... Luke is staying in the lineup. Siegenthaler should be ready to play... and we've been linked with Hanifin.

 

[TrufleShufle]

You are literally calling losses winnable. Can't make this up

That sounds like a good fan talking.

San Jose is example of me being wrong? They lost the game what are you talking about you like the fact that they lost closer? That's a hoot.

Most teams don't lose when winning going into the 3rd with a lead...it's just a fact.

So if you start a game 0-0, like I believe most do, then end up losing, you can't say the game was "winnable" because you lost? Interesting.

 

[Guttersniped]

You are literally calling losses winnable.

That sounds like a good fan talking.

San Jose is example of me being wrong? They lost what are you talking about you like the fact that they lost closer? That's a hoot.

Most teams don't lose when winning going into the 3rd with a lead...it's just a fact.

Sa

I’m just talking about the goals.

Like the one we scored to make it 2-3 with 17:04 minutes left.

Just to be clear, the only reason I brought this up was you kept talking about starting the period 3 goals down, as if that was the only situation on the list.

Two goals down also made every goal meaningless, according to you. You just liked focusing on 3 goals down in arguments after that.

The discussion is really about you not thinking teams can come back from 2 or 1 goals down in the 3rd period.

 

[NjDevsRR]

If the Devils rallied from a 3-0 deficit late and lost on a Cory team, im sure Jim was squawking about a totally meaningful game being squandered by Cory

 

[britdevil]

As much as Hanifin would be a great acquisition, it is tough to fit him in long term.

I'm not sure that he moves the needle enough. Certainly not without upgrading the goaltending first.

I trust TF to get it right, even if they miss.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Sieges comes back means Bahl or Smith sits I hope.... Smith had a good outdoor game though.

And I can't see this team just dropping Nemec to the pine because Sieges is back, that would be absolutely insane.

Bahl or Smith have to rotated in or out I guess.

And can we just move on from Nolan Foote. He never seemed particularly good, although had some small nice moments. Now his brother tainted his last name he needs to be more useful than before to make it worthwhile.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Sieges comes back means Bahl sits I hope.... Smith had a good outdoor game.

And I can't see this team just dropping Nemec to the pine because Sieges is back, that would be absolutely insane.

Bahl or Smith have to rotated in or out I guess.

And can we just move on from Nolan Foote. He never seemed particularly good, although had some small nice moments. Now his brother tainted his last name he needs to be more useful than before to make it worthwhile.

Silly man, you know Holtz will sit for Smith 7D or Smith 4th line

 

[JK3]

This whole pictures not working thing is greatly impacting my ability to meme

Yeah it sucks, trying to figure it out. You might have to use a photo hosting site for them to show up.

If you use the image feature on here, click on where it says insert on the thumbnail pic at the bottom, then select thumbnail instead of full image. I edited your post and it shows up.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Silly man, you know Holtz will sit for Smith 7D or Smith 4th line

Maybe Lindy is just load managing for playoffs and Holtz will be the freshest sniper to run through the gauntlet while everyone is gassed, he will come in and dominate hero style.

(Things I wished were true, for 1000$ Alex)

 

[JimEIV]

I’m just talking about the goals.

Like the one we scored to make it 2-3 with 17:04 minutes left.

Just to be clear, the only reason I brought this up was you kept talking about starting the period 3 goals down, as if that was the only situation on the list.

Two goals down also made every goal meaningless, according to you. You just liked focusing on 3 goals down in arguments after that.

The discussion is really about you not thinking teams can come back from 2 or 1 goals down in the 3rd period.

It's not me thinking... it's most decent teams don't lose when leading going into the 3rd. It's not an opinion it's fact.

Even the worst teams in the league don't lose much when winning going into the 3rd .

Chicago is 9-4. 7-1 at home
San Jose is 8-2-3. 4-1-1 on the road

These two teams combined have fewer wins than Carolina and still overwhelmingly win when leading going into the 3rd. It's not an opinion.

 

[Triumph]

Loser points have nothing to do with anything I ever said. "Winning" when trailing was the topic.... I'm not ignoring them....was just never apart of the conversation.

You were ignoring them. All the points matter, including loser points. The only reason the Islanders are even in the conversation for the playoffs is because of loser points and if they were great in OT or the shootout we'd be way behind them. Getting to overtime is enormous and the Devils have not done it enough this year, especially because the Devils have one of the best if not the best 3v3 player in the world.

Comebacks, loser points, ties ...you introduced a whole lot new bullshit that was never a part of the conversation because you are f***ing wrong. Winning when trailing by 3 going into the 3rd period is a f***ing impossibility . That was the topic.

And you're wrong, it's absolutely not impossible. The Devils have not done it nor had it done to them this season, but it happens, and it happens far more frequently than it used to. Part of the reason is that it's rare to lead or trail by 3 in a given game.

And making it 4-3 is not goal support when you were down 3-0.

You're also wrong about this.

And those 3 goals are bullshit garbage goals that padded stats to a game that was lost before the period began. That was the topic.

You're very obviously wrong about this.

Like I said I'd be shocked if there were 10 down by 3 wins going to third all season. Certainly not 20.

Great - how many comebacks down 3 are there that end in OTLs? Right, you don't care about that.

20 wins in 2624 games played is less than 1%. .7 to be exact....that an impossibility.

50 wins in 2624 games is less than 2%

It's not an impossibility and also I have no idea where you are getting these numbers from, it sure sounds like you are double-counting games at the very least - there's 32 teams, each team plays 82 games, this means there are 41x32 games in a season, so that's 1312 games, not 2624, hope that helps.

 

[Triumph]

What I will say is that Jim is right about the broader point, but he's making his point in the usual Jim way and has lost himself in dumb minituia and semantics. I do believe that the Devils will show themselves to be a much stronger team when they score the first goal in ~52% of games like they should be instead of 33% or wherever they're at now, and it will surprise people how strong they are when that is happening.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It's not me thinking... it's most decent teams don't lose when leading going into the 3rd. It's not an opinion it's fact.

Even the worst teams in the league don't lose much when winning going into the 3rd .

Chicago is 9-4. 7-1 at home
San Jose is 8-2-3. 4-1-1 on the road

These two teams combined have fewer wins than Carolina and still overwhelmingly win when leading going into the 3rd. It's not an opinion.

The Sharks were winless on the road before they beat us

 

[HughesCorporation]

prognosticators!!! what is the predicted points total we need to sneak in??? what does that equate to in winning percentage here on out?

 

[indfin]

Loser points have nothing to do with anything I ever said. "Winning" when trailing was the topic.... I'm not ignoring them....was just never apart of the conversation.

Comebacks, loser points, ties ...you introduced a whole lot new bullshit that was never a part of the conversation because you are f***ing wrong. Winning when trailing by 3 going into the 3rd period is a f***ing impossibility . That was the topic.

And making it 4-3 is not goal support when you were down 3-0.

And those 3 goals are bullshit garbage goals that padded stats to a game that was lost before the period began. That was the topic.

Like I said I'd be shocked if there were 10 down by 3 wins going to third all season. Certainly not 20.

20 wins in 2624 games played is less than 1%. .7 to be exact....that an impossibility.

50 wins in 2624 games is less than 2%

ok, here's where I chime in (and not really on the subject, but I like math and like to make sure it's applied properly).

1312 games is the # of games in a season (across all teams). I have no idea how many 3-goal, 3rd period deficits have been overcome to win. But (if we are arguing about the likelihood of such a comeback, and therefore the "meaningfull-ness" of any goals scored in that period, we would have to start with how many times teams have actually been losing by 3 going into the 3rd (or, at some point in the third, depending on what the argument is). I have no idea of that #, either, but it's obviously a small fraction of the 2624 games played in a season.

Having said that:

NHL Records

records.nhl.com

would indicate that most teams probably come back from a 3-goal, 3rd-period deficit 0-1 times/year ... so the total number is probably quite small

This old article puts the likelihood at 2%

The rarity of the three-goal comeback - TSN.ca

TSN's Travis Yost uses win probability models to illustrate just how tough it is to come from behind in today’s NHL.

www.tsn.ca

The loser point is irrelevant to the above ... but very relevant (I think) to determining "meaningless" goals ... which may or may not have been the topic?

 

[JimEIV]

ok, here's where I chime in (and not really on the subject, but I like math and like to make sure it's applied properly).

2624 games is the # of games in a season (across all teams). I have no idea how many 3-goal, 3rd period deficits have been overcome to win. But (if we are arguing about the likelihood of such a comeback, and therefore the "meaningfull-ness" of any goals scored in that period, we would have to start with how many times teams have actually been losing by 3 going into the 3rd (or, at some point in the third, depending on what the argument is). I have no idea of that #, either, but it's obviously a small fraction of the 2624 games played in a season.

Having said that:

NHL Records

records.nhl.com

would indicate that most teams probably come back from a 3-goal, 3rd-period deficit 0-1 times/year ... so the total number is probably quite small

This old article puts the likelihood at 2%

The rarity of the three-goal comeback - TSN.ca

TSN's Travis Yost uses win probability models to illustrate just how tough it is to come from behind in today’s NHL.

www.tsn.ca

The loser point is irrelevant to the above ... but very relevant (I think) to determining "meaningless" goals ... which may or may not have been the topic?

I came to the same conclusion on the fly without calculating. It's impossible.

"If that same team is down three goals with two periods in the books, they are about 2 per cent likely to win the game.,"

 

[Guttersniped]

It's not me thinking... it's most decent teams don't lose when leading going into the 3rd. It's not an opinion it's fact.

Even the worst teams in the league don't lose much when winning going into the 3rd .

Chicago is 9-4. 7-1 at home
San Jose is 8-2-3. 4-1-1 on the road

These two teams combined have fewer wins than Carolina and still overwhelmingly win when leading going into the 3rd. It's not an opinion.

We had 22 regulation losses and scored in 3rd period in 12 of those losses. And only some of those 12 games were winnable. It’s not like this situation happens all the time in losses for us.

Still doesn’t change the fact that it’s not meaningless to score so you’re only down 1 goal when you have almost 1/3 left in the game to play.

If you’re watching a game any a team pulls within 1 goal with 17 minutes left, do you think “they’re definitely still losing for sure, without a doubt”? That’s what you’re saying now.

The specifics of a game matter is what I’m saying.

I’m not going to say the same point again after this and it’s the one point I’m making here.

 

[JimEIV]

We had 22 regulation losses and scored in 3rd period in 12 of those losses. And only some of those 12 games were winnable. It’s not like this situation happens all the time in losses for us.

Still doesn’t change the fact that it’s not meaningless to score so you’re only down 1 goal when you have almost 1/3 left in the game to play.

If you’re watching a game any a team pulls within 1 goal with 17 minutes left, do you think “they’re definitely still losing for sure, without a doubt”? That’s what you’re saying now.

The specifics of a game matter is what I’m saying.

I’m not going to say the same point again after this and it’s the one point I’m making here.

"Winnable". Like "stoppable"goals? Have fun with that

 

[Guttersniped]

"Winnable". Like "stoppable"goals? Have fun with that

So I take it your answer is yes to:

If you’re watching a game any a team pulls within 1 goal with 17 minutes left, do you think “they’re definitely still losing for sure, without a doubt”? That’s what you’re saying now.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

This whole pictures not working thing is greatly impacting my ability to meme

My purpose in life has been stolen

Not too mention losing who knows how many “likes”