Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part III

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Its Always Sundstrom

Among the optimists.
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So the moral of the story is if you're down by more than 2 goals, just give up because even if you score to make it a 1 or 2 goal game those goals don't really count.

You know, sometimes those “meaningless” goals turn into Wins.

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Oh these last three pages. :damnpc:
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Guttersniped

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ok, here's where I chime in (and not really on the subject, but I like math and like to make sure it's applied properly).

1312 games is the # of games in a season (across all teams). I have no idea how many 3-goal, 3rd period deficits have been overcome to win. But (if we are arguing about the likelihood of such a comeback, and therefore the "meaningfull-ness" of any goals scored in that period, we would have to start with how many times teams have actually been losing by 3 going into the 3rd (or, at some point in the third, depending on what the argument is). I have no idea of that #, either, but it's obviously a small fraction of the 2624 games played in a season.

Having said that:


would indicate that most teams probably come back from a 3-goal, 3rd-period deficit 0-1 times/year ... so the total number is probably quite small

This old article puts the likelihood at 2%


The loser point is irrelevant to the above ... but very relevant (I think) to determining "meaningless" goals ... which may or may not have been the topic?

Again, he focused on the 3 goal deficits for the sake of the argument but Jim also treated 2 goal comebacks as equally impossible.

According to Jim, any goal that pulled us within 1 was meaningless in a loss, no matter when it was scored in the 3rd period.
 

JimEIV

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So I take it your answer is yes to:

If you’re watching a game any a team pulls within 1 goal with 17 minutes left, do you think “they’re definitely still losing for sure, without a doubt”? That’s what you’re saying now.
It's really not what I'm saying at all.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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prognosticators!!! what is the predicted points total we need to sneak in??? what does that equate to in winning percentage here on out?

right now, Detroit is the WC2 team at 0.574 point %. That is 94.1 point pace.

NJ right now is on pace for 91.2 points at their current pace. They would need to play at about ~0.6 point per game pace the rest of the way to get to 95 points, which is not difficult at all.
 
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NjdevilfanJim

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I think Vitek's 1-0 loss was the springboard. They figured the Defense part out... they just have to figure out how to score and play defense at the same time...

Remember the game where the worst goalie in the league that gets massive goal support didn't allow a goal in regulation and lost. Was just a few days ago.

And people are going to make believe it was Daws that changed the course of events.
His play has helped remember you team game only makes sense better team play better results for all...

Wondering what happens on defense now. Hard to say we don't need Smith after his game on Saturday... Luke is staying in the lineup. Siegenthaler should be ready to play... and we've been linked with Hanifin.
Hanifan is not a fit the cost will be high....He's soft as well...
 

The Grinder

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right now, Detroit is the WC2 team at 0.574 point %. That is 94.1 point pace.

NJ right now is on pace for 91.2 points at their current pace. Thy would need to play at about ~0.6 point per game pace the rest of the way to get to 95 points, which is not difficult at all.

I am hoping we can take the third divisional spot from Philly, for a rematch with the Canes.

5 pts back, 2 games in hand, one more game against Philly. Doable.
 

JimEIV

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Again, he focused on the 3 goal deficits for the sake of the argument but Jim also treated 2 goal comebacks as equally impossible.

According to Jim, any goal that pulled us within 1 was meaningless in a loss, no matter when it was scored in the 3rd period.
You're spinning your wheels trying to prove me wrong. But it's not me , it's the results you are denying.

All third period deficits are a low probability of wins no matter what scenarios you construct to come to this fictional "winnable" concept.
 
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Whaddagoal

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I am hoping we can take the third divisional spot from Philly, for a rematch with the Canes.

5 pts back, 2 games in hand, one more game against Philly. Doable.

That's what I'm really hoping for. Get 3rd in division, get above the chaos.

Not necessarily looking for a canes rematch though! But hey, if that's what it is, I'll take it.
 

HughesCorporation

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right now, Detroit is the WC2 team at 0.574 point %. That is 94.1 point pace.

NJ right now is on pace for 91.2 points at their current pace. They would need to play at about ~0.6 point per game pace the rest of the way to get to 95 points, which is not difficult at all.
3 out of 5 sounds doable but not if we lose to teams we should beat
I am hoping we can take the third divisional spot from Philly, for a rematch with the Canes.

5 pts back, 2 games in hand, one more game against Philly. Doable.
need to sweep games against pitt wash isles phi
 

PKs Broken Stick

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Daws has kind of solidified himself as a decent #2 option behind a true #1. Time to acquire that #1. VV should be shot into the sun as soon as possible. Schmid has regressed and should be in the minors.

LOL....a "true" #1 get out of here. Ya'll are ridiculous
 

PKs Broken Stick

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Kovalchuk had a higher top speed than Jack but that's not at all what Jack's game is predicated on - it's predicated on quick movements, darting in and out of traffic, etc. Any reduction in agility will hurt his ability to back off/move through defenders.

Way to only acknowledge one part of my post. How about McDavid? We really just need Jack to get to Bratt's level of sturdiness.
 

PKs Broken Stick

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But Jack can find a workout program that can fit. Bratt is the closest example. Look at his body strength now vs. his rookie or 2nd year.

Basically what I'm saying. I don't buy that he'll just lose all his effectiveness just because he gets some muscle mass. Makes no sense. He'll need to do it the right way but it'll be fine.
 

Guttersniped

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You're spinning your wheels trying to prove me wrong. But it's not me , it's the results you are denying.

All third period deficits are a low probability of wins no matter what scenarios you construct to come to this fictional "winnable" concept.

They all don’t have the same probability. That’s not how probability works.
 
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