Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part III

[NjDevsRR]

No arguing till Monday night should be a rule right now

 

[njdevils1982]

'THIS PARTY DOESN'T HAVE LEMONS AT ALL!!!'

 

[JimEIV]

Blaming Vitek solely for the teams woes is really dumb no matter how you slice it.

Vitek, Akira And Nico before February had nearly identical SV% and GAA.

Nico before February .895 GA 3.125
Akira .893 GA 3.25
Vitek .890 GA 3.18

The f***ing numbers are identical no matter who plays.

Now it gets even funnier....2022 goalies all had the same exact numbers as the 2024 guys

Daws. .893 GA 3.11
Blackwood. .892 GA 3.39
Gillies .885 GA 3.76

So they all have nearly identical stats over ~130 games worth of hockey over two separate seasons and 5 different goaltenders? And it's not the team this season it's Vitek? Ok.

Let's get another one and hope for different results

 

[MadDevil]

Almost 40? OMG what is wrong with you? Time to go out to sea on an ice floe grandpa. You should be ashamed of yourself trying to pass yourself off as a real human. 40. How pathetic. Do us all a favor and head out to dinner at 4:30 before going to sleep at 7.

Some days I wish that was my schedule. I've been working nights for like 20 years now, so it's more like wake up at noon, dinner at 8:00, go to sleep around 4-5 in the morning (or lay in bed doom scrolling on Twitter or falling down some YouTube rabbithole until 6-7 in the morning).

 

[Bcap88]

Some days I wish that was my schedule. I've been working nights for like 20 years now, so it's more like wake up at noon, dinner at 8:00, go to sleep around 4-5 in the morning (or lay in bed doom scrolling on Twitter or falling down some YouTube rabbithole until 6-7 in the morning).

Ahhh the good ole night shift

I have a whole ass house to myself and live alone but I still sleep in the basement because it was easier to fall asleep down rheee because it was much darker than the upstairs

 

[Whaddagoal]

F this current tangent. I am still high off the stadium game

I've been looking at replays from last night for at least 20% of my time awake today

Can't get enough of the good feelz

 

[njdevils1982]

I've been looking at replays from last night for at least 20% of my time awake today

Can't get enough of the good feelz

let me know when you can tell who is who

 

[Triumph]

Kovy was like over 50 pounds heavier than him and was still crazy fast (before he lost his back). McDavid bulked up, still crazy fast. I don't buy the bulking = losing speed thing. Just gotta do it the right way. I don't think anyone is saying he's gotta go full body building mode, but the guy is a toothpick. He needs to bulk up a bit.

Kovalchuk had a higher top speed than Jack but that's not at all what Jack's game is predicated on - it's predicated on quick movements, darting in and out of traffic, etc. Any reduction in agility will hurt his ability to back off/move through defenders.

 

[Triumph]

WRT the inane Vitek arguments here -

The thing that is indefensible about Vitek's play this year is his rebound control. If Vitek could catch pucks at a normal rate, he would be fine - arguably Daws has given up more howlers than Vitek even though Vitek has played double the games. It's the fact that Vitek is constantly spitting out rebounds that no NHL goalie would that make the defense look worse than it is (and it is already not very strong at covering guys on rebound plays). That's why Vitek's numbers are so low this season - I think his save percentage on low-danger shots is right in line with the rest of the goalies in the league. He just can't stop enough high-danger chances and part of that are the chances he creates for himself by not being able to catch the damn puck.

 

[Whaddagoal]

let me know when you can tell who is who

I'll be honest, when Nico scored that second goal, at first I thought it was Luke. I only saw the 3 thought it was 43. Was even happier when a second later I realized it was Nico.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I've been looking at replays from last night for at least 20% of my time awake today

Can't get enough of the good feelz

Really can't get enough of the live replays from fans.

The actual broadcast replays are boots though. Real low rent stuff from ESPN

 

[Whaddagoal]

Really can't get enough of the live replays from fans.

The actual broadcast replays are boots though. Real low rent stuff from ESPN

They are great those that I saw, still trying to find unique ones.

They had one with Nico signing the lens.

 

[Bleedred]

WRT the inane Vitek arguments here -

The thing that is indefensible about Vitek's play this year is his rebound control. If Vitek could catch pucks at a normal rate, he would be fine - arguably Daws has given up more howlers than Vitek even though Vitek has played double the games. It's the fact that Vitek is constantly spitting out rebounds that no NHL goalie would that make the defense look worse than it is (and it is already not very strong at covering guys on rebound plays). That's why Vitek's numbers are so low this season - I think his save percentage on low-danger shots is right in line with the rest of the goalies in the league. He just can't stop enough high-danger chances and part of that are the chances he creates for himself by not being able to catch the damn puck.

Mostly agree, but I will say the Calgary game he played before his most recent game there were a couple of howlers in that one.

Though the game winner was exactly one of those rebounds, that came off a pretty easy shot that he gloved and came out of his glove.

The one goal that tied it for Colorado was also on a pretty long shot that cleanly beat him.

Late in that game when we were trapped in our end and it was still tied 3-3, he had a puck at his chest which would have given us a much needed whistle on a very long shift in our end, but it somehow dropped out again, which led to probably another 20-30 seconds of being trapped in our end. I can't even remember how we got out of trouble, other than I know he didn't eventually cover it for a whistle on that shift.

 

[Triumph]

Also if I get the time this week, I will go through all of the Devils play-by-play stats this year to see how the Devils play, statistically, before the first goal of the game is scored. My expectation - the Devils play worse than at most game states, but nowhere close to 'deserving' to score the first goal of the game in like one-third of games.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Kovalchuk had a higher top speed than Jack but that's not at all what Jack's game is predicated on - it's predicated on quick movements, darting in and out of traffic, etc. Any reduction in agility will hurt his ability to back off/move through defenders.

I think he has to call Bratt in offseason and tell him he will be living in Sweden for 2 months. Get bratters workout routine and get better week by week. Hard to find a more compatible player who got stronger and faster and had no downside.

Agreed Kovy was more like MacKinnon today - at least during his youth and prime. Lots of power, lots of speed, lots of high speed edgework. But Jack can find a workout program that can fit. Bratt is the closest example. Look at his body strength now vs. his rookie or 2nd year.

 

[Bleedred]

Gillies may have been one of the worst goaltenders we've ever had here to play 20 games.

He had an .885% on an expected .905% on the moneypuck models. Evolving hockey flatters him a little more, by knocking two his GSAx by about 2 goals.

Gillies that year had a GSAx per 60 of - 0.985. Just about one goal more per 60. As bad as the other goalies here were that year? Even Blackwood for that year was only a -0.545 (around a half a goal more allowed than expected per 60), Hammond was a -0.685 and Daws was a -0.359 GSAx per 60 that year. He was not nearly as bad as anyone else, other than Bernier who only played 10 games and was barely even underwater. All things considered that year, Daws in 21-22 wasn't nearly the worst goalie on the team, despite being extremely green (though maybe not as green as Schmid) and getting the workload he got after he came up.

Hammond did play a handful of games for Montreal, so he was likely closer to a -1 goal per expected for 60 with just the Devils that year. It doesn't let you split up his Montreal and Devils numbers. They're all combined for the year.

Gillies just turned 30 years old a few weeks ago and isn't even playing pro hockey this year. He's still listed as a UFA. No AHL, no ECHL, no Euro contract. No nothing this year.

 

[JimEIV]

It's not only funny that Vitek and Schmid's numbers are so close this year their drop from last year is almost identical too.

Vitek .911 to .890 -.021
Akira .922 to .893. -.029

Probably rebound control...

Maybe McKenzie stole all their rebound control because he bucks the trend
and see his SV% increase by .006. Hardly different but higher than he had the previous 3 years here. Go figure.

 

[devilsblood]

It absolutely does mean 12 times. Sure it can happen multiple times in a game. It's still 12 times

If you're down 4, and score to make it 3, then another to make it 2, that's 2 goals, but down more then 2 goals only 1 time.

But I did feel I went over a line above. I apologize.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Schmid's issue this year was letting in the howlers. He wasn't making as many easy ones as Vitek but he made more high percentage stops.

Vitek's high danger save percentage is near bottom of the league and quite a bit behind both Schmid and Daws.

And as Triumph said, it's largely due to his lack of rebound control.

You just need to watch his starts. Pucks that either should have been frozen or kicked into a corner consistently gets put on a offensive player's stick and results in a goal. He does it a lot

 

[NjDevsRR]

It's not only funny that Vitek and Schmid's numbers are so close this year their drop from last year is almost identical too.

Vitek .911 to .890 -.021
Akira .922 to .893. -.029

Probably rebound control...

Maybe McKenzie stole all their rebound control because he bucks the trend
and see his SV% increase by .006. Hardly different but higher than he had the previous 3 years here. Go figure.

Viteks downhill play started February of last season

2023

Feb: .892
Mar: .898
Apr and May: .868

So idk why all the work to show Vitek isn’t the problem when he has been a problem for over a calendar year now.

 

[JimEIV]

Viteks downhill trend started March of last year, then obviously in the playoffs.

Strange that Schmid had a .896 in March and in his last 6 playoff games had an .891.... Vitek though.

It's the team. Not sure why the denial?

 

[devilsblood]

Blaming Vitek solely for the teams woes is really dumb no matter how you slice it.

Vitek, Akira And Nico before February had nearly identical SV% and GAA.

Nico before February .895 GA 3.125
Akira .893 GA 3.25
Vitek .890 GA 3.18

The f***ing numbers are identical no matter who plays.

Now it gets even funnier....2022 goalies all had the same exact numbers as the 2024 guys

Daws. .893 GA 3.11
Blackwood. .892 GA 3.39
Gillies .885 GA 3.76

So they all have nearly identical stats over ~130 games worth of hockey over two separate seasons and 5 different goaltenders? And it's not the team this season it's Vitek? Ok.

Let's get another one and hope for different results

Why is it Nico before February? Why not Nico for the season. Which is .912 and 2.93.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Strange that Schmid had a .896 in March and in his last 6 playoff games had an .891.... Vitek though.

View attachment 822091

2023 Vitek
Apr and May: .868

2023 Schmid
Apr and May: .915

I don’t understand what you are trying to prove here. Vitek hasn’t been good since last January.


Seriously, what are we doing here…

 

[JimEIV]

Schmid's issue this year was letting in the howlers. He wasn't making as many easy ones as Vitek but he made more high percentage stops.

Vitek's high danger save percentage is near bottom of the league and quite a bit behind both Schmid and Daws.

And as Triumph said, it's largely due to his lack of rebound control.

You just need to watch his starts. Pucks that either should have been frozen or kicked into a corner consistently gets put on a offensive player's stick and results in a goal. He does it a lot

All 3 goalies we used this year have practically the same SV% and goals against except for Daws ...and if you look at his numbers before the All Star break they are indentical to the other two. Just coincidence?

Why is it Nico before February? Why not Nico for the season. Which is .912 and 2.93.

All Star break the team made obvious defensive changes and those few games have changed his stats significantly.... because it was ALWAYS the team

 

[NjDevsRR]

Again. Vitek in 2023 on a franchise record setting team:

Feb: .892
Mar: .898
Apr and May: .868


He hasn’t been consistently good in a while, not since January of 2023.